Hey Guys -
I was trying to join a Basbeall 13 run pool, but got in too late...so I figured I would start my own. I don't like our chances of gathering together 30 guys for this thing, so I figured we could try and get 14 to just do the AL teams. If we end up with less than that we'll just do a random draw.
Here's how it works:
You are assigned a team, and the goal is the be the first one to score each run total from 0 to 13 before any of the other teams. I've never done one of these before, but I see how it could be a lot of fun and give you someone to follow other than the lowly Twins.
Since it's based on complete random luck for whether you win or not I'm thinking $20 is a good entry fee. If you want in, please let me know and I'll do the draw for teams on Wednesday before the 1st games begin.
Depending on the number of guys we get, we'll either pay out 1 or 2 places. If we fill up all 14 spots, I'll break it down to $200 for 1st and $80 for 2nd. If we have 10 or less it will be winner take all.
You can buy more than 1 team if you want to improve your odds. Shoot me a note if you want in and get me your $$$.
Thanks.
Friday, March 30, 2012
Monday, March 26, 2012
Feedback
Hey Guys -
I've heard from a few of you, but am hoping to get more feedback so we can have a true majority opinion on the tiebreakers/carry over debate. So far most are in favor of doing away with the carry over and adding some kind of tie breaker each week for the weekly prize.
I'm also hoping to compile the list of potential new recruits over the next month or so. I have received a couple of names already, and I had a couple of my own - but please send me any more guys that are interested in playing next year.
Finally - still searching for a new name for the Football Challenge, so all of you creative and funny people out there please send me your ideas. A couple decent ones so far, but I'm not sure if we've found it yet.
Let me know if you have any other questions or concerns. Keep a look out for the upcoming Masters Pool which will be sent out Monday APRIL 2nd. It's $10 per guy per major, or $40 all at once to enter all 4. It's probably easier to do that if you plan on playing rather than sending me $10 at a time. It's a pretty simple pool, we split the golfers into 5 tiers based on their odds, pick one from each tier, and have a point system based on their finish to determine the winner. It's fun & it gives you somebody to root for and a chance to cash in.
I've heard from a few of you, but am hoping to get more feedback so we can have a true majority opinion on the tiebreakers/carry over debate. So far most are in favor of doing away with the carry over and adding some kind of tie breaker each week for the weekly prize.
I'm also hoping to compile the list of potential new recruits over the next month or so. I have received a couple of names already, and I had a couple of my own - but please send me any more guys that are interested in playing next year.
Finally - still searching for a new name for the Football Challenge, so all of you creative and funny people out there please send me your ideas. A couple decent ones so far, but I'm not sure if we've found it yet.
Let me know if you have any other questions or concerns. Keep a look out for the upcoming Masters Pool which will be sent out Monday APRIL 2nd. It's $10 per guy per major, or $40 all at once to enter all 4. It's probably easier to do that if you plan on playing rather than sending me $10 at a time. It's a pretty simple pool, we split the golfers into 5 tiers based on their odds, pick one from each tier, and have a point system based on their finish to determine the winner. It's fun & it gives you somebody to root for and a chance to cash in.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Madness Recap & FC 2012-13 Rules Changes
Well, it was a long day on Saturday for many of us. Thanks to all of you who stopped in for anywhere from 0-20 drinks. I was only stuck with a couple of envelopes, Hammer & Oge, so I will get those to you two ASAP...unless you want me to keep it and just enter you in each of the 4 upcoming Major Golf Tourneys at $10 each?!?!? For those of you who missed it, we lasted at BWW from about 11am-8pm, when we were told that we were drinking above the average drinks per hour and for too many hours. I don't think we were asked directly to leave, but they started bringing a lot of water and very few Jameson's...so we grabbed Chipotle next door and bailed.
The night moved back to my place where 2 miracles were witnessed, JG won a poker game...and then JG won another poker game. We entertained ourselves with PJ turned up to 11 and the KFAN button bar on my phone. I started a drunk text rally late in the evening, if I hit you up on one of those I'm sorry. Our brilliant golf idea the next day was good until the 30 mph winds had us ready to cry and quit by about hole 12. JG and I posted dueling 103's, so whenever I play with you guys next we're each going to be listed as 31 handicaps. It was ugly, but it was golf in March...so it was good.
We talked multiple times about FC topics and I think we're in a consensus on most of the rule changes for next year, but here's the list in case you missed it on Saturday or couldn't comprehend my words, which is totally possible.
1.I will use ACTUAL Tuesday lines for all games instead of the opening lines listed in USATODAY.
2. We will be giving out 1 point for ties and 2 points for wins so we eliminate the tie = loss conundrum.
3. The payout scale will add in extra payouts for the overall NCAA W% champ and the NFL W% champ
The only one that wasn't decided and is still up for debate is the tiebreaker or carry-over question. This year, with 17 guys, we did the carry over method and This came into play in 7 of the 18 weeks, or a little under 50% of the time. I think it put more emphasis on certain weeks, which made it fun, but it also hurt those of us who tied for the win on multiple weeks and had nothing to show for it. We will be adding members next year and I'm expecting to be somewhere in the 20-30 range for players. This in turn will likely add a few more ties if we continue with this method. The other option would to have a payout every week and make up a weekly tiebreaker. This could be consistent every week, or it could be something that changes every week. I'm thinking the best thing to do is make it a total point number for one game (MNF, SNF, Vikes game, Biggest game of the week?) or a pick the largest winner or largest loser each week for either NCAA or NFL (ARK will beat VANDY 44-3 and be a +41 for the week).
PLEASE LET ME KNOW YOUR OPINIONS ON THIS AND WHAT YOU THINK WILL BE BEST FOR THE GROUP AS A WHOLE. IF YOU HAVE OTHER IDEAS FOR A TIEBREAKER I WOULD BE VERY INTERESTED TO HEAR THOSE AS WELL. SHOOT ME A NOTE, I'LL COMPILE THE REPSONSES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEK AND WE'LL HAVE A VERDICT...DEMOCRACY, SORT OF.
The last and final point of this update is that it's officially RECRUITING SEASON for the FOOTBALL CHALLENGE. If you have buddies who you know want to play or guys you think may be interested but haven't talked with as of yet - please send me their name and email and I will put them on the list. It's tough to get guys to commit in March, but I'll put them on the list so we can narrow it down by August when the fun starts. Also, if you don't want to play any more - please let me know that, too. We've only lost 1 member in our history and it sounds like he's back on board for next year...so it's like we haven't lost anyone in the 5 years of the FC...but let me know if you are out. More importantly, send me any and all potential new recruits and their contact info so we can start working on the FC 2012.
As always, I really don't like the name Football Challenge, but I guess I'm not creative enough to come up with something else...but maybe one of you guys are. I'm looking for something a little more clever and interesting and a little less bland and obvious...so please send me your suggestions on that as well.
So here's your checklist for the next few weeks:
1. Rule changes - Tiebreaks Y/N and what should a tiebreaker be?
2. New Recruits - name/email address
3. Are you in for next year? Y/N
4. What should we rename the Football Challenge?
That's it - once again thanks to all those that made it out to the 'burbs on Saturday. It was a ton of fun hanging with you all and watching a little basketball, wrestling, golf, baseball, and anything else we could make a wager on!! Great times, like always. I'll start working on the golf tourney planning...but I won't be bringing that up for a while since all my get out of jail free cards are used up for a while. I think JG picked the date of June 23 late on Saturday night...but we'll see. If it doesn't work out this year, maybe we'll try and hook up for a couple of rounds through the extended golf season with each of you. Throw me an invite and I'll try and make it work out.
The night moved back to my place where 2 miracles were witnessed, JG won a poker game...and then JG won another poker game. We entertained ourselves with PJ turned up to 11 and the KFAN button bar on my phone. I started a drunk text rally late in the evening, if I hit you up on one of those I'm sorry. Our brilliant golf idea the next day was good until the 30 mph winds had us ready to cry and quit by about hole 12. JG and I posted dueling 103's, so whenever I play with you guys next we're each going to be listed as 31 handicaps. It was ugly, but it was golf in March...so it was good.
We talked multiple times about FC topics and I think we're in a consensus on most of the rule changes for next year, but here's the list in case you missed it on Saturday or couldn't comprehend my words, which is totally possible.
1.I will use ACTUAL Tuesday lines for all games instead of the opening lines listed in USATODAY.
2. We will be giving out 1 point for ties and 2 points for wins so we eliminate the tie = loss conundrum.
3. The payout scale will add in extra payouts for the overall NCAA W% champ and the NFL W% champ
The only one that wasn't decided and is still up for debate is the tiebreaker or carry-over question. This year, with 17 guys, we did the carry over method and This came into play in 7 of the 18 weeks, or a little under 50% of the time. I think it put more emphasis on certain weeks, which made it fun, but it also hurt those of us who tied for the win on multiple weeks and had nothing to show for it. We will be adding members next year and I'm expecting to be somewhere in the 20-30 range for players. This in turn will likely add a few more ties if we continue with this method. The other option would to have a payout every week and make up a weekly tiebreaker. This could be consistent every week, or it could be something that changes every week. I'm thinking the best thing to do is make it a total point number for one game (MNF, SNF, Vikes game, Biggest game of the week?) or a pick the largest winner or largest loser each week for either NCAA or NFL (ARK will beat VANDY 44-3 and be a +41 for the week).
PLEASE LET ME KNOW YOUR OPINIONS ON THIS AND WHAT YOU THINK WILL BE BEST FOR THE GROUP AS A WHOLE. IF YOU HAVE OTHER IDEAS FOR A TIEBREAKER I WOULD BE VERY INTERESTED TO HEAR THOSE AS WELL. SHOOT ME A NOTE, I'LL COMPILE THE REPSONSES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEK AND WE'LL HAVE A VERDICT...DEMOCRACY, SORT OF.
The last and final point of this update is that it's officially RECRUITING SEASON for the FOOTBALL CHALLENGE. If you have buddies who you know want to play or guys you think may be interested but haven't talked with as of yet - please send me their name and email and I will put them on the list. It's tough to get guys to commit in March, but I'll put them on the list so we can narrow it down by August when the fun starts. Also, if you don't want to play any more - please let me know that, too. We've only lost 1 member in our history and it sounds like he's back on board for next year...so it's like we haven't lost anyone in the 5 years of the FC...but let me know if you are out. More importantly, send me any and all potential new recruits and their contact info so we can start working on the FC 2012.
As always, I really don't like the name Football Challenge, but I guess I'm not creative enough to come up with something else...but maybe one of you guys are. I'm looking for something a little more clever and interesting and a little less bland and obvious...so please send me your suggestions on that as well.
So here's your checklist for the next few weeks:
1. Rule changes - Tiebreaks Y/N and what should a tiebreaker be?
2. New Recruits - name/email address
3. Are you in for next year? Y/N
4. What should we rename the Football Challenge?
That's it - once again thanks to all those that made it out to the 'burbs on Saturday. It was a ton of fun hanging with you all and watching a little basketball, wrestling, golf, baseball, and anything else we could make a wager on!! Great times, like always. I'll start working on the golf tourney planning...but I won't be bringing that up for a while since all my get out of jail free cards are used up for a while. I think JG picked the date of June 23 late on Saturday night...but we'll see. If it doesn't work out this year, maybe we'll try and hook up for a couple of rounds through the extended golf season with each of you. Throw me an invite and I'll try and make it work out.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
5 days and counting...
The bracket is out and pools are filling up, and all we have left to do is hand out the money and grab a drink and watch hoops for about 12 straight hours.
BWW opens at 11am on Saturday, games will likely start right around that time. Here's the deal for those of you who plan on being there all day - meet at my place around 10:30 and we'll head down to BWW together to be there right at 11. They don't really do reservations on a day like Saturday, so those of us who are there early will stake out a couple of tables and wait for the rest of you. It's also going to be 75 degrees, so the patio with 2 TV's might be our best bet...we'll see.
If you need directions to my place or BWW, just let me know. Bring anyone else who you think might enjoy it and/or potential new recruits for Football Challenge 2012-13.
Other questions - shoot me a note and we'll figure it out.
Hope to see you all on Saturday!
BWW opens at 11am on Saturday, games will likely start right around that time. Here's the deal for those of you who plan on being there all day - meet at my place around 10:30 and we'll head down to BWW together to be there right at 11. They don't really do reservations on a day like Saturday, so those of us who are there early will stake out a couple of tables and wait for the rest of you. It's also going to be 75 degrees, so the patio with 2 TV's might be our best bet...we'll see.
If you need directions to my place or BWW, just let me know. Bring anyone else who you think might enjoy it and/or potential new recruits for Football Challenge 2012-13.
Other questions - shoot me a note and we'll figure it out.
Hope to see you all on Saturday!
Monday, March 5, 2012
March Madness Gathering
The countdown is officially on to the gathering of the minds on MARCH 17th. The hoops regular season is over, and brackets will be announced next Sunday.
I've heard from a few of you who plan to attend, but I want to make sure everyone is aware of the plan for St. Patty's day once again.
WHERE: BWW Chanhassen
WHAT: March Madness watching/gambling/cocktailing
WHY: Collect your payday from Football Challenge 2011 and turn your cash into 3x or 4x what your actual winnings were through basketball wagers with your fellow Football Challenge members.
WHEN: Saturday March 17th - games will start around 11am and probably end around 11pm, so I'm thinking many of us will meet at my place and cruise down together if you're in for the long haul.
If you plan on making a shorter drive by appearance then meet us at any time at Wild Wings and collect your cash or free drink. I also have some relevant FC info from the season for each of you. I plan on discussing possible rule changes, new members, and anything else that might come up over 12+ hours of wagering and drinking.
There is a hotel actually just down the road from BWW if you plan on not being able to drive home that night. I also live nearby and will have room for a few guys at my place.
It's going to be a great time and I hope to see you all there. I'll send out a final reminder next week and we'll start the final countdown.
I've heard from a few of you who plan to attend, but I want to make sure everyone is aware of the plan for St. Patty's day once again.
WHERE: BWW Chanhassen
WHAT: March Madness watching/gambling/cocktailing
WHY: Collect your payday from Football Challenge 2011 and turn your cash into 3x or 4x what your actual winnings were through basketball wagers with your fellow Football Challenge members.
WHEN: Saturday March 17th - games will start around 11am and probably end around 11pm, so I'm thinking many of us will meet at my place and cruise down together if you're in for the long haul.
If you plan on making a shorter drive by appearance then meet us at any time at Wild Wings and collect your cash or free drink. I also have some relevant FC info from the season for each of you. I plan on discussing possible rule changes, new members, and anything else that might come up over 12+ hours of wagering and drinking.
There is a hotel actually just down the road from BWW if you plan on not being able to drive home that night. I also live nearby and will have room for a few guys at my place.
It's going to be a great time and I hope to see you all there. I'll send out a final reminder next week and we'll start the final countdown.
Monday, February 6, 2012
Super Bowl Review - Post Season Final Standings
I didn't have the energy to write this up last night, so sorry for over-promising and under-delivering. After 2 early mornings with the kids, painting our dining room, and back to back nights of booze I was completely spent after watching the Super Bowl. It was a classic, not because of the quality of play, which I thought was kind of sub-par, but because it featured a couple of memorable moments between 2 major teams and came down to the last play.
So the NYG win & cover made it a race bewteen JR, TN, and GT. TN and GT both needed to beat me by 3 in the props to win outright. It didn't happen. I hit 8 of 10 on my props, and took the overall post-season title. This continues the Rollins dominance of post-season football as G-Reg won last year's post-season and I won in 2009-10.
Props - there was no prize awarded, but I hit 8 of 10, which was the best score. JG had 5, AW had 5, GR hit 2, MH hit 7, MC hit 1, SS had 5, RO had 4, TN had 4, MT had 6, GT had 7, CP had 5, JH had 6, and MO had 6. Overall a pretty strong prop performance by most of us.
Here are the final post-season standings:
POST-SEASON W
JR 73
GT 70
TN 67
MH 62
MT 61
SS 54
CP 54
AW 51
MC 51
GR 49
MO 48
RO 46
MR 41
JG 39
JH 37
LW 33
MS 0
Once again, thanks to all of you for a great year. Hope to see you all on the 17th of March to collect your payday and potentially gamble it all away watching March Madness and having cocktails in Chanhassen.
Here's the final cash tally for everyone for the Football Challenge 2011-12:
MH - $100
MR - $100
RO - skunked
SS - $450
TN - $150
CP - skunked
LW - skunked
MO - $50
JR - $300
MC - skunked
MT - $50
GT - $100
MS - $100
GR - $200
AW - $50
JH - $50
The 4 of you who were skunked and have nothing to collect should still show up as Steve and I owe you each a cocktail. There has to be a consolation prize of some sort, right?
So the NYG win & cover made it a race bewteen JR, TN, and GT. TN and GT both needed to beat me by 3 in the props to win outright. It didn't happen. I hit 8 of 10 on my props, and took the overall post-season title. This continues the Rollins dominance of post-season football as G-Reg won last year's post-season and I won in 2009-10.
Props - there was no prize awarded, but I hit 8 of 10, which was the best score. JG had 5, AW had 5, GR hit 2, MH hit 7, MC hit 1, SS had 5, RO had 4, TN had 4, MT had 6, GT had 7, CP had 5, JH had 6, and MO had 6. Overall a pretty strong prop performance by most of us.
Here are the final post-season standings:
POST-SEASON W
JR 73
GT 70
TN 67
MH 62
MT 61
SS 54
CP 54
AW 51
MC 51
GR 49
MO 48
RO 46
MR 41
JG 39
JH 37
LW 33
MS 0
Once again, thanks to all of you for a great year. Hope to see you all on the 17th of March to collect your payday and potentially gamble it all away watching March Madness and having cocktails in Chanhassen.
Here's the final cash tally for everyone for the Football Challenge 2011-12:
MH - $100
MR - $100
RO - skunked
SS - $450
TN - $150
CP - skunked
LW - skunked
MO - $50
JR - $300
MC - skunked
MT - $50
GT - $100
MS - $100
GR - $200
AW - $50
JH - $50
The 4 of you who were skunked and have nothing to collect should still show up as Steve and I owe you each a cocktail. There has to be a consolation prize of some sort, right?
Friday, February 3, 2012
Super Bowl Preview - End of Football Challenge 2011-12
It's a sad time of the year, all you'll get from me going forward for the next 7-8 months is Hawkeye/Vadger bashing and commentaries on off-season incidents. Well, that's not 100% true. We are approaching golf season, and picking the majors, which I hope you all participate in this year. And some March Madness action (where my NCAA Hoops record is about double my college football win %!!). But nonetheless, another season comes to a close and it sucks. But on the bright side you each have 8 months to figure out what the hell happened and how you can get better (or worse) next season. I'll stay in touch through the FC and we'll start planning for next year. But more on that after we're done...let's get to the big game!!
So we have 2 members who failed to turn in picks, MR, in his yearly MR tradition, is likely not in contention at this point so for the 3rd year in a row he refuses to pick the Super Bowl. Mike's just waiting for next September when his 75% college picking abilities can take over again! Luke also chose to not enter Super Bowl picks this year, and based on his 3-7 playoff run and current 5 game losing streak...I can't blame him. However, a lot of us are in contention for the $250 and title of Post-Season Gambling Champion. So here we go...
It will basically go one of 2 ways starting with who wins the game. We have 7 guys on the NYG and 7 on the PATS.
NYG: JR, MH, MC, TN, MT, GT, MO
NE: JG, AW, GR, SS, RO, CP, JH
Here's a quick look at the leaderboard before we get into our scenarios:
POST-SEASON W
JR 55
TN 53
GT 53
SS 49
CP 49
GR 47
AW 46
MH 45
MT 45
RO 42
MR 41
MC 40
JG 34
LW 33
MO 32
JH 31
MS 0
IF NYG WIN:
It comes down to a 3 horse race in the props between JR, TN, and GT.
JR holds a 2 point lead on both of these 2, so here's a winning scenario for each guy...
JR vs. TN
JR has NO missed FG, Nick > Cruz, Over 1.5 yds shortest TD, Under 5.5 sacks
TN would have to sweep these 4 to overtake JR...a 3-1 advantage would make it a push, which comes down to overall playoff wins, which JR would win at 10-1 vs. 9-2.
JR vs. GT
JR has UNDER 55.5, NYG +.5 H1, Brady>Manning, Nicks>Cruz, Under 5.5 Sacks
With 5 shared props, GT would have to win 4 of 5 to take the title. 3 of 5 or less would give the win to JR based on tiebreaker once again.
TN vs. GT
If they both beat me on Cruz-Nicks and OVER 5.5 sacks, then we'll be all square and it would come down to these props between these 2 that could win them the title:
TN: YES missed FG, GT and JR both have NO; UNDER shortest TD 1.5yds, JR & GT have OVER.
GT: OVER 55.5 total, JR and TN have UNDER; PATS -.5 H1, TN and JR have NYG; Manning>Brady, TN and JR have Brady.
Quick Guide to meaningful differences:
TOTAL 55.5 = GT OVER
NE -.5 H1 = GT PATS
Brady vs. Manning Yards = GT Manning
Missed FG = TN YES
Cruz vs. Nicks Rec Yds = JR Nicks
Shortest TD 1.5 yds = TN UNDER
Sacks 5.5 = JR UNDER
TN and GT need to make up 3 points on me to win it. Lots of possibilities, but it'll play itself out as we go. Some of these props could be decided early, so you can track your chances.
If NE WINS and COVERS...
Here is what the board would look like pre-props:
POST-SEASON W
SS 59
CP 59
GR 57
AW 56
JR 55
SS vs. CP
There are 4 differences in the props between these 2:
SS has OVER 55.5, Nicks > Cruz, OVER 1.5 shortest TD, OVER 5.5 sacks
CP would hold the tiebreaker based on a better playoff record. So SS would need to win 3 of those to take the title.
GR needs to make up 2 points on both of these guys. A D/SPT TD would be 1 for GR, who is the only guy to take YES out of all 14 of us. Missed FG YES would also give GR a point vs. both SS and CP. Assuming both of those happen, he would then need to win 2 of these 3 against CP: OVER 55.5, OVER 1.5yds shortest TD, or OVER 5.5 sacks. He would need to win Cruz > Nicks to beat out SS. There's a chance, but it might take some luck.
AW would need even more luck sitting 3 points behind SS and CP. If BOMB wins all 10 of his prop bets, he would be champ by 1 point.
JR has a similar situation, if I win all 10 of my props I could still win the crown...even with a NYG loss and non-cover.
If you can follow this...wow. Sorry it turned into a bit of a trainwreck, I guess I'll just lay out the picks for you and you can keep score at home if you like...or wait for my late night email on Sunday to find out what happened.
Here are the picks
JR: 55 NY U G N N B N N N O U
TN: 53 NY U G N N B Y N C U O
GT: 53 NY O P N N M N N C O O
SS: 49 NE O P N Y B N Y N O O
CP: 49 NE U P N Y B N Y C U U
GR: 47 NE O P Y Y B Y Y C O O
AW: 46 NE O P N N B Y Y C O U
MH: 45 NY O G N N M N Y N O U
MT: 45 NY U G N N B N Y C O U
RO: 42 NE O G N Y M Y Y C O U
MC: 40 NY O G N Y B Y Y C U O
JG: 34 NE O P N N B Y Y N O O
MO: 32 NY U G N Y B Y N N O U
JH: 31 NE U P N N B Y Y C O U
Name, Pts, Game pick, prop picks:
1. TOTAL 55.5 (O/U)
2. H1 NE -.5 (G/P)
3. D/SPT TD - (Y/N)
4. 1st Score = TD? (Y/N)
5. More Passing Yds (B/M)
6. Missed FG? (Y/N)
7. Score in first 5:30? (Y/N)
8. Rec Yards Nicks or Cruz? (N/C)
9. Shotest TD O/U 1.5 yds (O/U)
10. Sacks 5.5 (O/U)
I'll try to send out some updates while some of these are decided. 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, and 10 could/should all be decided during the game, so I'll fill those in as we go and try to keep you updated the best I can.
It's been a great season guys - I love having the big group and all the new people invovled...it really made it the best year of the Football Challenge to date. Have fun on Sunday, Good Luck!! Go G-Men!!
So we have 2 members who failed to turn in picks, MR, in his yearly MR tradition, is likely not in contention at this point so for the 3rd year in a row he refuses to pick the Super Bowl. Mike's just waiting for next September when his 75% college picking abilities can take over again! Luke also chose to not enter Super Bowl picks this year, and based on his 3-7 playoff run and current 5 game losing streak...I can't blame him. However, a lot of us are in contention for the $250 and title of Post-Season Gambling Champion. So here we go...
It will basically go one of 2 ways starting with who wins the game. We have 7 guys on the NYG and 7 on the PATS.
NYG: JR, MH, MC, TN, MT, GT, MO
NE: JG, AW, GR, SS, RO, CP, JH
Here's a quick look at the leaderboard before we get into our scenarios:
POST-SEASON W
JR 55
TN 53
GT 53
SS 49
CP 49
GR 47
AW 46
MH 45
MT 45
RO 42
MR 41
MC 40
JG 34
LW 33
MO 32
JH 31
MS 0
IF NYG WIN:
It comes down to a 3 horse race in the props between JR, TN, and GT.
JR holds a 2 point lead on both of these 2, so here's a winning scenario for each guy...
JR vs. TN
JR has NO missed FG, Nick > Cruz, Over 1.5 yds shortest TD, Under 5.5 sacks
TN would have to sweep these 4 to overtake JR...a 3-1 advantage would make it a push, which comes down to overall playoff wins, which JR would win at 10-1 vs. 9-2.
JR vs. GT
JR has UNDER 55.5, NYG +.5 H1, Brady>Manning, Nicks>Cruz, Under 5.5 Sacks
With 5 shared props, GT would have to win 4 of 5 to take the title. 3 of 5 or less would give the win to JR based on tiebreaker once again.
TN vs. GT
If they both beat me on Cruz-Nicks and OVER 5.5 sacks, then we'll be all square and it would come down to these props between these 2 that could win them the title:
TN: YES missed FG, GT and JR both have NO; UNDER shortest TD 1.5yds, JR & GT have OVER.
GT: OVER 55.5 total, JR and TN have UNDER; PATS -.5 H1, TN and JR have NYG; Manning>Brady, TN and JR have Brady.
Quick Guide to meaningful differences:
TOTAL 55.5 = GT OVER
NE -.5 H1 = GT PATS
Brady vs. Manning Yards = GT Manning
Missed FG = TN YES
Cruz vs. Nicks Rec Yds = JR Nicks
Shortest TD 1.5 yds = TN UNDER
Sacks 5.5 = JR UNDER
TN and GT need to make up 3 points on me to win it. Lots of possibilities, but it'll play itself out as we go. Some of these props could be decided early, so you can track your chances.
If NE WINS and COVERS...
Here is what the board would look like pre-props:
POST-SEASON W
SS 59
CP 59
GR 57
AW 56
JR 55
SS vs. CP
There are 4 differences in the props between these 2:
SS has OVER 55.5, Nicks > Cruz, OVER 1.5 shortest TD, OVER 5.5 sacks
CP would hold the tiebreaker based on a better playoff record. So SS would need to win 3 of those to take the title.
GR needs to make up 2 points on both of these guys. A D/SPT TD would be 1 for GR, who is the only guy to take YES out of all 14 of us. Missed FG YES would also give GR a point vs. both SS and CP. Assuming both of those happen, he would then need to win 2 of these 3 against CP: OVER 55.5, OVER 1.5yds shortest TD, or OVER 5.5 sacks. He would need to win Cruz > Nicks to beat out SS. There's a chance, but it might take some luck.
AW would need even more luck sitting 3 points behind SS and CP. If BOMB wins all 10 of his prop bets, he would be champ by 1 point.
JR has a similar situation, if I win all 10 of my props I could still win the crown...even with a NYG loss and non-cover.
If you can follow this...wow. Sorry it turned into a bit of a trainwreck, I guess I'll just lay out the picks for you and you can keep score at home if you like...or wait for my late night email on Sunday to find out what happened.
Here are the picks
JR: 55 NY U G N N B N N N O U
TN: 53 NY U G N N B Y N C U O
GT: 53 NY O P N N M N N C O O
SS: 49 NE O P N Y B N Y N O O
CP: 49 NE U P N Y B N Y C U U
GR: 47 NE O P Y Y B Y Y C O O
AW: 46 NE O P N N B Y Y C O U
MH: 45 NY O G N N M N Y N O U
MT: 45 NY U G N N B N Y C O U
RO: 42 NE O G N Y M Y Y C O U
MC: 40 NY O G N Y B Y Y C U O
JG: 34 NE O P N N B Y Y N O O
MO: 32 NY U G N Y B Y N N O U
JH: 31 NE U P N N B Y Y C O U
Name, Pts, Game pick, prop picks:
1. TOTAL 55.5 (O/U)
2. H1 NE -.5 (G/P)
3. D/SPT TD - (Y/N)
4. 1st Score = TD? (Y/N)
5. More Passing Yds (B/M)
6. Missed FG? (Y/N)
7. Score in first 5:30? (Y/N)
8. Rec Yards Nicks or Cruz? (N/C)
9. Shotest TD O/U 1.5 yds (O/U)
10. Sacks 5.5 (O/U)
I'll try to send out some updates while some of these are decided. 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, and 10 could/should all be decided during the game, so I'll fill those in as we go and try to keep you updated the best I can.
It's been a great season guys - I love having the big group and all the new people invovled...it really made it the best year of the Football Challenge to date. Have fun on Sunday, Good Luck!! Go G-Men!!
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Need Picks from...
Still waiting on Super Bowl pick and props from these guys:
ROE
PEYTON
LUKE
HAMMER
Get them to me sometime today and I'll send out the large Super Bowl preview tomorrow.
Thanks.
ROE
PEYTON
LUKE
HAMMER
Get them to me sometime today and I'll send out the large Super Bowl preview tomorrow.
Thanks.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)