The countdown is officially on to the gathering of the minds on MARCH 17th. The hoops regular season is over, and brackets will be announced next Sunday.
I've heard from a few of you who plan to attend, but I want to make sure everyone is aware of the plan for St. Patty's day once again.
WHERE: BWW Chanhassen
WHAT: March Madness watching/gambling/cocktailing
WHY: Collect your payday from Football Challenge 2011 and turn your cash into 3x or 4x what your actual winnings were through basketball wagers with your fellow Football Challenge members.
WHEN: Saturday March 17th - games will start around 11am and probably end around 11pm, so I'm thinking many of us will meet at my place and cruise down together if you're in for the long haul.
If you plan on making a shorter drive by appearance then meet us at any time at Wild Wings and collect your cash or free drink. I also have some relevant FC info from the season for each of you. I plan on discussing possible rule changes, new members, and anything else that might come up over 12+ hours of wagering and drinking.
There is a hotel actually just down the road from BWW if you plan on not being able to drive home that night. I also live nearby and will have room for a few guys at my place.
It's going to be a great time and I hope to see you all there. I'll send out a final reminder next week and we'll start the final countdown.
Monday, March 5, 2012
Monday, February 6, 2012
Super Bowl Review - Post Season Final Standings
I didn't have the energy to write this up last night, so sorry for over-promising and under-delivering. After 2 early mornings with the kids, painting our dining room, and back to back nights of booze I was completely spent after watching the Super Bowl. It was a classic, not because of the quality of play, which I thought was kind of sub-par, but because it featured a couple of memorable moments between 2 major teams and came down to the last play.
So the NYG win & cover made it a race bewteen JR, TN, and GT. TN and GT both needed to beat me by 3 in the props to win outright. It didn't happen. I hit 8 of 10 on my props, and took the overall post-season title. This continues the Rollins dominance of post-season football as G-Reg won last year's post-season and I won in 2009-10.
Props - there was no prize awarded, but I hit 8 of 10, which was the best score. JG had 5, AW had 5, GR hit 2, MH hit 7, MC hit 1, SS had 5, RO had 4, TN had 4, MT had 6, GT had 7, CP had 5, JH had 6, and MO had 6. Overall a pretty strong prop performance by most of us.
Here are the final post-season standings:
POST-SEASON W
JR 73
GT 70
TN 67
MH 62
MT 61
SS 54
CP 54
AW 51
MC 51
GR 49
MO 48
RO 46
MR 41
JG 39
JH 37
LW 33
MS 0
Once again, thanks to all of you for a great year. Hope to see you all on the 17th of March to collect your payday and potentially gamble it all away watching March Madness and having cocktails in Chanhassen.
Here's the final cash tally for everyone for the Football Challenge 2011-12:
MH - $100
MR - $100
RO - skunked
SS - $450
TN - $150
CP - skunked
LW - skunked
MO - $50
JR - $300
MC - skunked
MT - $50
GT - $100
MS - $100
GR - $200
AW - $50
JH - $50
The 4 of you who were skunked and have nothing to collect should still show up as Steve and I owe you each a cocktail. There has to be a consolation prize of some sort, right?
So the NYG win & cover made it a race bewteen JR, TN, and GT. TN and GT both needed to beat me by 3 in the props to win outright. It didn't happen. I hit 8 of 10 on my props, and took the overall post-season title. This continues the Rollins dominance of post-season football as G-Reg won last year's post-season and I won in 2009-10.
Props - there was no prize awarded, but I hit 8 of 10, which was the best score. JG had 5, AW had 5, GR hit 2, MH hit 7, MC hit 1, SS had 5, RO had 4, TN had 4, MT had 6, GT had 7, CP had 5, JH had 6, and MO had 6. Overall a pretty strong prop performance by most of us.
Here are the final post-season standings:
POST-SEASON W
JR 73
GT 70
TN 67
MH 62
MT 61
SS 54
CP 54
AW 51
MC 51
GR 49
MO 48
RO 46
MR 41
JG 39
JH 37
LW 33
MS 0
Once again, thanks to all of you for a great year. Hope to see you all on the 17th of March to collect your payday and potentially gamble it all away watching March Madness and having cocktails in Chanhassen.
Here's the final cash tally for everyone for the Football Challenge 2011-12:
MH - $100
MR - $100
RO - skunked
SS - $450
TN - $150
CP - skunked
LW - skunked
MO - $50
JR - $300
MC - skunked
MT - $50
GT - $100
MS - $100
GR - $200
AW - $50
JH - $50
The 4 of you who were skunked and have nothing to collect should still show up as Steve and I owe you each a cocktail. There has to be a consolation prize of some sort, right?
Friday, February 3, 2012
Super Bowl Preview - End of Football Challenge 2011-12
It's a sad time of the year, all you'll get from me going forward for the next 7-8 months is Hawkeye/Vadger bashing and commentaries on off-season incidents. Well, that's not 100% true. We are approaching golf season, and picking the majors, which I hope you all participate in this year. And some March Madness action (where my NCAA Hoops record is about double my college football win %!!). But nonetheless, another season comes to a close and it sucks. But on the bright side you each have 8 months to figure out what the hell happened and how you can get better (or worse) next season. I'll stay in touch through the FC and we'll start planning for next year. But more on that after we're done...let's get to the big game!!
So we have 2 members who failed to turn in picks, MR, in his yearly MR tradition, is likely not in contention at this point so for the 3rd year in a row he refuses to pick the Super Bowl. Mike's just waiting for next September when his 75% college picking abilities can take over again! Luke also chose to not enter Super Bowl picks this year, and based on his 3-7 playoff run and current 5 game losing streak...I can't blame him. However, a lot of us are in contention for the $250 and title of Post-Season Gambling Champion. So here we go...
It will basically go one of 2 ways starting with who wins the game. We have 7 guys on the NYG and 7 on the PATS.
NYG: JR, MH, MC, TN, MT, GT, MO
NE: JG, AW, GR, SS, RO, CP, JH
Here's a quick look at the leaderboard before we get into our scenarios:
POST-SEASON W
JR 55
TN 53
GT 53
SS 49
CP 49
GR 47
AW 46
MH 45
MT 45
RO 42
MR 41
MC 40
JG 34
LW 33
MO 32
JH 31
MS 0
IF NYG WIN:
It comes down to a 3 horse race in the props between JR, TN, and GT.
JR holds a 2 point lead on both of these 2, so here's a winning scenario for each guy...
JR vs. TN
JR has NO missed FG, Nick > Cruz, Over 1.5 yds shortest TD, Under 5.5 sacks
TN would have to sweep these 4 to overtake JR...a 3-1 advantage would make it a push, which comes down to overall playoff wins, which JR would win at 10-1 vs. 9-2.
JR vs. GT
JR has UNDER 55.5, NYG +.5 H1, Brady>Manning, Nicks>Cruz, Under 5.5 Sacks
With 5 shared props, GT would have to win 4 of 5 to take the title. 3 of 5 or less would give the win to JR based on tiebreaker once again.
TN vs. GT
If they both beat me on Cruz-Nicks and OVER 5.5 sacks, then we'll be all square and it would come down to these props between these 2 that could win them the title:
TN: YES missed FG, GT and JR both have NO; UNDER shortest TD 1.5yds, JR & GT have OVER.
GT: OVER 55.5 total, JR and TN have UNDER; PATS -.5 H1, TN and JR have NYG; Manning>Brady, TN and JR have Brady.
Quick Guide to meaningful differences:
TOTAL 55.5 = GT OVER
NE -.5 H1 = GT PATS
Brady vs. Manning Yards = GT Manning
Missed FG = TN YES
Cruz vs. Nicks Rec Yds = JR Nicks
Shortest TD 1.5 yds = TN UNDER
Sacks 5.5 = JR UNDER
TN and GT need to make up 3 points on me to win it. Lots of possibilities, but it'll play itself out as we go. Some of these props could be decided early, so you can track your chances.
If NE WINS and COVERS...
Here is what the board would look like pre-props:
POST-SEASON W
SS 59
CP 59
GR 57
AW 56
JR 55
SS vs. CP
There are 4 differences in the props between these 2:
SS has OVER 55.5, Nicks > Cruz, OVER 1.5 shortest TD, OVER 5.5 sacks
CP would hold the tiebreaker based on a better playoff record. So SS would need to win 3 of those to take the title.
GR needs to make up 2 points on both of these guys. A D/SPT TD would be 1 for GR, who is the only guy to take YES out of all 14 of us. Missed FG YES would also give GR a point vs. both SS and CP. Assuming both of those happen, he would then need to win 2 of these 3 against CP: OVER 55.5, OVER 1.5yds shortest TD, or OVER 5.5 sacks. He would need to win Cruz > Nicks to beat out SS. There's a chance, but it might take some luck.
AW would need even more luck sitting 3 points behind SS and CP. If BOMB wins all 10 of his prop bets, he would be champ by 1 point.
JR has a similar situation, if I win all 10 of my props I could still win the crown...even with a NYG loss and non-cover.
If you can follow this...wow. Sorry it turned into a bit of a trainwreck, I guess I'll just lay out the picks for you and you can keep score at home if you like...or wait for my late night email on Sunday to find out what happened.
Here are the picks
JR: 55 NY U G N N B N N N O U
TN: 53 NY U G N N B Y N C U O
GT: 53 NY O P N N M N N C O O
SS: 49 NE O P N Y B N Y N O O
CP: 49 NE U P N Y B N Y C U U
GR: 47 NE O P Y Y B Y Y C O O
AW: 46 NE O P N N B Y Y C O U
MH: 45 NY O G N N M N Y N O U
MT: 45 NY U G N N B N Y C O U
RO: 42 NE O G N Y M Y Y C O U
MC: 40 NY O G N Y B Y Y C U O
JG: 34 NE O P N N B Y Y N O O
MO: 32 NY U G N Y B Y N N O U
JH: 31 NE U P N N B Y Y C O U
Name, Pts, Game pick, prop picks:
1. TOTAL 55.5 (O/U)
2. H1 NE -.5 (G/P)
3. D/SPT TD - (Y/N)
4. 1st Score = TD? (Y/N)
5. More Passing Yds (B/M)
6. Missed FG? (Y/N)
7. Score in first 5:30? (Y/N)
8. Rec Yards Nicks or Cruz? (N/C)
9. Shotest TD O/U 1.5 yds (O/U)
10. Sacks 5.5 (O/U)
I'll try to send out some updates while some of these are decided. 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, and 10 could/should all be decided during the game, so I'll fill those in as we go and try to keep you updated the best I can.
It's been a great season guys - I love having the big group and all the new people invovled...it really made it the best year of the Football Challenge to date. Have fun on Sunday, Good Luck!! Go G-Men!!
So we have 2 members who failed to turn in picks, MR, in his yearly MR tradition, is likely not in contention at this point so for the 3rd year in a row he refuses to pick the Super Bowl. Mike's just waiting for next September when his 75% college picking abilities can take over again! Luke also chose to not enter Super Bowl picks this year, and based on his 3-7 playoff run and current 5 game losing streak...I can't blame him. However, a lot of us are in contention for the $250 and title of Post-Season Gambling Champion. So here we go...
It will basically go one of 2 ways starting with who wins the game. We have 7 guys on the NYG and 7 on the PATS.
NYG: JR, MH, MC, TN, MT, GT, MO
NE: JG, AW, GR, SS, RO, CP, JH
Here's a quick look at the leaderboard before we get into our scenarios:
POST-SEASON W
JR 55
TN 53
GT 53
SS 49
CP 49
GR 47
AW 46
MH 45
MT 45
RO 42
MR 41
MC 40
JG 34
LW 33
MO 32
JH 31
MS 0
IF NYG WIN:
It comes down to a 3 horse race in the props between JR, TN, and GT.
JR holds a 2 point lead on both of these 2, so here's a winning scenario for each guy...
JR vs. TN
JR has NO missed FG, Nick > Cruz, Over 1.5 yds shortest TD, Under 5.5 sacks
TN would have to sweep these 4 to overtake JR...a 3-1 advantage would make it a push, which comes down to overall playoff wins, which JR would win at 10-1 vs. 9-2.
JR vs. GT
JR has UNDER 55.5, NYG +.5 H1, Brady>Manning, Nicks>Cruz, Under 5.5 Sacks
With 5 shared props, GT would have to win 4 of 5 to take the title. 3 of 5 or less would give the win to JR based on tiebreaker once again.
TN vs. GT
If they both beat me on Cruz-Nicks and OVER 5.5 sacks, then we'll be all square and it would come down to these props between these 2 that could win them the title:
TN: YES missed FG, GT and JR both have NO; UNDER shortest TD 1.5yds, JR & GT have OVER.
GT: OVER 55.5 total, JR and TN have UNDER; PATS -.5 H1, TN and JR have NYG; Manning>Brady, TN and JR have Brady.
Quick Guide to meaningful differences:
TOTAL 55.5 = GT OVER
NE -.5 H1 = GT PATS
Brady vs. Manning Yards = GT Manning
Missed FG = TN YES
Cruz vs. Nicks Rec Yds = JR Nicks
Shortest TD 1.5 yds = TN UNDER
Sacks 5.5 = JR UNDER
TN and GT need to make up 3 points on me to win it. Lots of possibilities, but it'll play itself out as we go. Some of these props could be decided early, so you can track your chances.
If NE WINS and COVERS...
Here is what the board would look like pre-props:
POST-SEASON W
SS 59
CP 59
GR 57
AW 56
JR 55
SS vs. CP
There are 4 differences in the props between these 2:
SS has OVER 55.5, Nicks > Cruz, OVER 1.5 shortest TD, OVER 5.5 sacks
CP would hold the tiebreaker based on a better playoff record. So SS would need to win 3 of those to take the title.
GR needs to make up 2 points on both of these guys. A D/SPT TD would be 1 for GR, who is the only guy to take YES out of all 14 of us. Missed FG YES would also give GR a point vs. both SS and CP. Assuming both of those happen, he would then need to win 2 of these 3 against CP: OVER 55.5, OVER 1.5yds shortest TD, or OVER 5.5 sacks. He would need to win Cruz > Nicks to beat out SS. There's a chance, but it might take some luck.
AW would need even more luck sitting 3 points behind SS and CP. If BOMB wins all 10 of his prop bets, he would be champ by 1 point.
JR has a similar situation, if I win all 10 of my props I could still win the crown...even with a NYG loss and non-cover.
If you can follow this...wow. Sorry it turned into a bit of a trainwreck, I guess I'll just lay out the picks for you and you can keep score at home if you like...or wait for my late night email on Sunday to find out what happened.
Here are the picks
JR: 55 NY U G N N B N N N O U
TN: 53 NY U G N N B Y N C U O
GT: 53 NY O P N N M N N C O O
SS: 49 NE O P N Y B N Y N O O
CP: 49 NE U P N Y B N Y C U U
GR: 47 NE O P Y Y B Y Y C O O
AW: 46 NE O P N N B Y Y C O U
MH: 45 NY O G N N M N Y N O U
MT: 45 NY U G N N B N Y C O U
RO: 42 NE O G N Y M Y Y C O U
MC: 40 NY O G N Y B Y Y C U O
JG: 34 NE O P N N B Y Y N O O
MO: 32 NY U G N Y B Y N N O U
JH: 31 NE U P N N B Y Y C O U
Name, Pts, Game pick, prop picks:
1. TOTAL 55.5 (O/U)
2. H1 NE -.5 (G/P)
3. D/SPT TD - (Y/N)
4. 1st Score = TD? (Y/N)
5. More Passing Yds (B/M)
6. Missed FG? (Y/N)
7. Score in first 5:30? (Y/N)
8. Rec Yards Nicks or Cruz? (N/C)
9. Shotest TD O/U 1.5 yds (O/U)
10. Sacks 5.5 (O/U)
I'll try to send out some updates while some of these are decided. 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, and 10 could/should all be decided during the game, so I'll fill those in as we go and try to keep you updated the best I can.
It's been a great season guys - I love having the big group and all the new people invovled...it really made it the best year of the Football Challenge to date. Have fun on Sunday, Good Luck!! Go G-Men!!
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Need Picks from...
Still waiting on Super Bowl pick and props from these guys:
ROE
PEYTON
LUKE
HAMMER
Get them to me sometime today and I'll send out the large Super Bowl preview tomorrow.
Thanks.
ROE
PEYTON
LUKE
HAMMER
Get them to me sometime today and I'll send out the large Super Bowl preview tomorrow.
Thanks.
Monday, January 30, 2012
Super Bowl PROPS
Alright, the week off was kind of refreshing...but now it's time to figure out our post-season champion. I sent out the line last week, and here are the 10 prop bets. Reminder, the game is worth 10 points, and each of these props is worth 1 point for a total of 20 possible points available on the Super Bowl.
STANDINGS
POST-SEASON W
JR 55
TN 53
GT 53
SS 49
CP 49
GR 47
AW 46
MH 45
MT 45
RO 42
MR 41
MC 40
JG 34
LW 33
MO 32
JH 31
MS 0
LINE
NYG
NE -3
PROPS
1. TOTAL 55.5 (Over or Under)
2. 1st Half lines NE -.5 (NYG +.5 or NE -.5)
3. Will there be a defensive or special team TD (Yes or No)
4. Will the first score be a TD? (Yes or No)
5. Who will have more passing yards (Brady or Manning)
6. Will there be a missed FG (Yes or No)
7. Will there be a score in the first 5:30 of the game (Yes or No)
8. More receiving yards (CRUZ or NICKS)
9. Shortest TD of the game over/under 1.5 yards (Over or Under)
10. Total sacks over/under 5.5 (Over or Under)
So from most of you I need your pick on the game and your pick for each of the 10 props. Please try and get me these by EOD Thursday and I will send out the Super Bowl preview with winning scenarios on Friday.
It's the last Football bet of the year - make it a good one. Good Luck.
Also - just as a reminder, we're planning the 3rd annual Football Challenge Gathering of the Minds on March 17th at BWW in Chanhassen. It's the first Saturday of the NCAA Hoops Tourney, and it's also St. Patty's Day. I'm planning an all day affair of gambling, wings, and awarding the prize money from the Football Challenge. I hope you all can make it. I know we're still about 6 weeks out, but as we get closer I'd like to get a count of who plans on attending so I can make the proper arrangements. We can figure this out in FEB once all the Football is officially done, but I just wanted to remind everyone about it so you can mark off your calendar now. Even if you can't stay all day, it would be great to see everyone for a drink or two. See what you can do.
STANDINGS
POST-SEASON W
JR 55
TN 53
GT 53
SS 49
CP 49
GR 47
AW 46
MH 45
MT 45
RO 42
MR 41
MC 40
JG 34
LW 33
MO 32
JH 31
MS 0
LINE
NYG
NE -3
PROPS
1. TOTAL 55.5 (Over or Under)
2. 1st Half lines NE -.5 (NYG +.5 or NE -.5)
3. Will there be a defensive or special team TD (Yes or No)
4. Will the first score be a TD? (Yes or No)
5. Who will have more passing yards (Brady or Manning)
6. Will there be a missed FG (Yes or No)
7. Will there be a score in the first 5:30 of the game (Yes or No)
8. More receiving yards (CRUZ or NICKS)
9. Shortest TD of the game over/under 1.5 yards (Over or Under)
10. Total sacks over/under 5.5 (Over or Under)
So from most of you I need your pick on the game and your pick for each of the 10 props. Please try and get me these by EOD Thursday and I will send out the Super Bowl preview with winning scenarios on Friday.
It's the last Football bet of the year - make it a good one. Good Luck.
Also - just as a reminder, we're planning the 3rd annual Football Challenge Gathering of the Minds on March 17th at BWW in Chanhassen. It's the first Saturday of the NCAA Hoops Tourney, and it's also St. Patty's Day. I'm planning an all day affair of gambling, wings, and awarding the prize money from the Football Challenge. I hope you all can make it. I know we're still about 6 weeks out, but as we get closer I'd like to get a count of who plans on attending so I can make the proper arrangements. We can figure this out in FEB once all the Football is officially done, but I just wanted to remind everyone about it so you can mark off your calendar now. Even if you can't stay all day, it would be great to see everyone for a drink or two. See what you can do.
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
SUPER BOWL Line
Here it is...
NYG
NE -3
I don't need this pick for a couple of weeks, so you can take your time or send it this week if you want...whatever.
I'll send the prop list next week, shoot me a note if you have any good props that should make the cut. They have to be either/or kind of props so nothing like "player to score the first TD?" type of thing. I've got a pretty good list going, but let me know if you see something or come up with something that is a relative 50:50 chance.
Thanks.
Good Luck!
NYG
NE -3
I don't need this pick for a couple of weeks, so you can take your time or send it this week if you want...whatever.
I'll send the prop list next week, shoot me a note if you have any good props that should make the cut. They have to be either/or kind of props so nothing like "player to score the first TD?" type of thing. I've got a pretty good list going, but let me know if you see something or come up with something that is a relative 50:50 chance.
Thanks.
Good Luck!
Monday, January 23, 2012
Championship Sunday Review
2 great games yesterday. The standings certainly tightened up quite a bit as I lost my first NFL Playoff game of the year. With 20 points on the line for Super Bowl week, I think anyone within 10-15 has a shot.
The line is looking like 3 right now, but I will wait to see if it changes by tomorrow when we finalize the line for our pool. I will also be putting together the 10 prop bets this week and get those out to you next week for your picks. With such a tight race, these could be really important.
CURRENT STANDINGS
POST-SEASON W
JR 55
TN 53
GT 53
SS 49
CP 49
GR 47
AW 46
MH 45
MT 45
RO 42
MR 41
MC 40
JG 34
LW 33
MO 32
JH 31
MS 0
My thoughts on the games (because I have time since nothing besides internet works on my computer right now!):
BAL-NE
I thought this was maybe the worst game I'd seen Brady play and Belichick coach in quite a long time. Brady didn't throw it very well at all and made some horrible choices (the pick after the turnover in the 4th quarter). Belichick seemed off his game as well with his questionable play calls at some points and taking a knee into half time, and not challenging some very challengable plays. With all of that, the Pats were ripe for an upset, but the idiot kicker blew the chance for the Ravens. It's amazing how critical every part of special teams becomes at this point in the season. It made the difference in both games yesterday. Flacco impressed me. He played a lot sharper than I expected. I said if you take the Ravens you are banking on an adequate performance from Flacco, they won't turn it over...which they won the TO battle, and the D will limit Brady enough for them to keep up. All of which happened, to my surprise. I think NE could have gotten it done if Brady had hit on a couple of big plays earlier that were there but he just missed. It was disappointing, I hate the win and no cover, but every streak must end. Overall, NE probably wasn't the smartest pick...I should have stuck to the priniciple of taking the better D when they are getting points.
NYG-SF
Exactly the kind of game I expected out of these 2. It really could have gone either way. The 2 TO's on punt returns...ouch, what a way to lose. Eli was outstanding again. Alex Smith looked like Alex Smith again. Seriously, if the NYG just take away Davis all day I don't think SF musters more than 6 points. 2 really strong defenses both showed up and dominated at times. I really found myself cheering against Harbaugh at the end, he just seems like such a jack-ass at times. And this suspicion was confirmed on the post game hand shake when he basically blew off Coughlin. Classy move Jim. I know he's an emotional guy and angry that he lost, but you still need to lose with a little class in a game like that. He must be from the Bert Bielema school of coaching.
Only 1 game left for Football Challenge 2011, and plenty of cash still on the line.
I'll send out the final Super Bowl line tomorrow and the 10 props next week. Nothing will be due for 2 weeks, so plan accordingly. Lots of strategery going into these picks with so many guys alive for the big prize - should be a ton of fun and a ton of drama. Good Luck!
The line is looking like 3 right now, but I will wait to see if it changes by tomorrow when we finalize the line for our pool. I will also be putting together the 10 prop bets this week and get those out to you next week for your picks. With such a tight race, these could be really important.
CURRENT STANDINGS
POST-SEASON W
JR 55
TN 53
GT 53
SS 49
CP 49
GR 47
AW 46
MH 45
MT 45
RO 42
MR 41
MC 40
JG 34
LW 33
MO 32
JH 31
MS 0
My thoughts on the games (because I have time since nothing besides internet works on my computer right now!):
BAL-NE
I thought this was maybe the worst game I'd seen Brady play and Belichick coach in quite a long time. Brady didn't throw it very well at all and made some horrible choices (the pick after the turnover in the 4th quarter). Belichick seemed off his game as well with his questionable play calls at some points and taking a knee into half time, and not challenging some very challengable plays. With all of that, the Pats were ripe for an upset, but the idiot kicker blew the chance for the Ravens. It's amazing how critical every part of special teams becomes at this point in the season. It made the difference in both games yesterday. Flacco impressed me. He played a lot sharper than I expected. I said if you take the Ravens you are banking on an adequate performance from Flacco, they won't turn it over...which they won the TO battle, and the D will limit Brady enough for them to keep up. All of which happened, to my surprise. I think NE could have gotten it done if Brady had hit on a couple of big plays earlier that were there but he just missed. It was disappointing, I hate the win and no cover, but every streak must end. Overall, NE probably wasn't the smartest pick...I should have stuck to the priniciple of taking the better D when they are getting points.
NYG-SF
Exactly the kind of game I expected out of these 2. It really could have gone either way. The 2 TO's on punt returns...ouch, what a way to lose. Eli was outstanding again. Alex Smith looked like Alex Smith again. Seriously, if the NYG just take away Davis all day I don't think SF musters more than 6 points. 2 really strong defenses both showed up and dominated at times. I really found myself cheering against Harbaugh at the end, he just seems like such a jack-ass at times. And this suspicion was confirmed on the post game hand shake when he basically blew off Coughlin. Classy move Jim. I know he's an emotional guy and angry that he lost, but you still need to lose with a little class in a game like that. He must be from the Bert Bielema school of coaching.
Only 1 game left for Football Challenge 2011, and plenty of cash still on the line.
I'll send out the final Super Bowl line tomorrow and the 10 props next week. Nothing will be due for 2 weeks, so plan accordingly. Lots of strategery going into these picks with so many guys alive for the big prize - should be a ton of fun and a ton of drama. Good Luck!
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Championship Sunday Preview
The last day of the football season with multiple games to watch...so here's what we're rooting for on Sunday.
BAL at NE (-7.5)
9 on BAL and 7 on NE
NE (JR,JG,MR,AW,MC,RO,LW)
This was definitely the toughest call of the 2 for me. I started the week thinking NE, went to BAL for about 36 hours, and then settled on NE. I think you can make a case for both.
First, the case for BAL: Never in the last 4 years of playoffs and regular season have they been this large of an underdog in a game. Defense rules in the playoffs as a rule of thumb, and BAL definitely has the better defense. The case against BAL is this...Joe Flacco #1. He didn't do much to help them beat HOU, and granted he should be able to do more against a bad NE D, but after being called out by his own guys this week I don't expect anything great from him. BAL also has a tendency to turn the ball over on the road this year. Actually, they just don't play very well on the road in general only going 4-4 this year. Historically (the last 3 years), the team they plays better (wins by the largest margin) in the divisional round has won every year in the championship game...BAL struggled and only won by 7 while NE cruised. I do believe the line is very close to what the spread will actually finish at, but to buy BAL you have to be thinking that Flacco will play adequate, they won't turn it over, and the defense can limit NE enough to allow the BAL offense to keep up. BAL only averaged 24 ppg this season, but they only got blown out twice, so the odds of them keeping it within a TD are likely. With that being said, I went with NE. Why NE? In my mind, their superior offense is more of an advantage than BAL's superior defense. If I had to pick either unit (NE D or BAL O) to step up and play above their head for one game only I would take the NE D at home. Also, every team that has played a tight divisional playoff game (won by 7 or less) in the last 3 years has lost the next round. The trend I'm seeing is that Super Bowl teams have an easy time in the divisional round and don't sweat it until at least this week. BAL definitely does not fit that criteria. I hate picking against Brady/Belichick ever, especially in a big game like this. At -6.5 this is an absolute no brainer for me to take NE, but the -7.5 offers some doubt. NE has the look of a determined team that is driven to get back to prominance in the league, and there is also a revenge factor built in on this one for the beatdown BAL put on them last time they met in the Playoffs. Only 2 times in the last 3+ years has a team won the game and not covered the spread (BAL last week, and a certain Purple team at NO a couple of years back at +3.5) so I feel like it comes down to picking the team you think will win the game and don't be influenced by the points. So with that I have to take the home team, the better team, the better QB and the PATS to win.
CALL: NE wins 31-20. Brady plays like Brady, Flacco tries to prove to everyone that he is big-time and fails miserably against a brilliant Belichick defensive plan, and nobody covers Gronkowski.
NYG at SF (-2.5)
10 on NYG and 6 on SF
SF (MC,MT,CP,LW,JH,MO)
I figured this one out just a few minutes after the 4th NYG TD at the silent Lambeau field last week. Nobody is playing like the G-Men right now. Eli is not turning it over, the WR's/OL/RB's are healthy and moving the ball. The defense is playing at the same level as the last Super Bowl run the NYG made and getting tons of pressure with their front 4. SF is coming off a "nobody gave us a chance" win last week against NO, which we've seen is the kiss of death for the next round in recent history. The QB battle is an easy one, Eli > Alex. I'll give it to Smith that he played better last week, but that's against a poor NO defense that blitzes every down and has holes in their coverage. And they totally shut down the 49ers offense for most of the game but allowed points in the end and on short fields after some of the 5ish TO's that NO committed. That won't happen this week. NYG won't turn it over like NO. The defenses are both very good, the weather sounds like it will be brutal, and the turnover battle is about even. The big difference here is on offense. You have a rookie HC with a QB who is in his first playoff run vs. a veteran HC with an elite QB. I've heard a lot of bad weather = advantage 49ers talk this week. I don't necessarily agree with that. Both teams are playing on the sloppy track, so I have a hard time giving an advantage one way or another. They can both play D and run the ball, typically the 2 major factors you look at in bad weather games.
CALL: I like NYG to win 23-20 in a tight game. Give me the better QB and the points with a team that is playing better than anyone against a team that won a fluky home game last week and has a ? at QB.
Both games are worth 5 points this week for a 10 point week in total. Here are the standings once again coming into the week:
POST-SEASON W
JR 50
CP 44
TN 43
GT 43
AW 41
MC 40
MT 40
SS 39
GR 37
RO 37
MR 36
MH 35
LW 33
JG 29
MO 27
JH 26
MS 0
I have a 6 point lead, but could be passed this week by CP is he sweeps with his BAL/SF picks. 20 points available next week (10 for game, +10 single point props) so lots of room left to grow for those of you that have some extra ground to make up. Plus I'm 8-0 in the playoffs so far, so I'm bound to go 0-2 this week right?
Good Luck.
BAL at NE (-7.5)
9 on BAL and 7 on NE
NE (JR,JG,MR,AW,MC,RO,LW)
This was definitely the toughest call of the 2 for me. I started the week thinking NE, went to BAL for about 36 hours, and then settled on NE. I think you can make a case for both.
First, the case for BAL: Never in the last 4 years of playoffs and regular season have they been this large of an underdog in a game. Defense rules in the playoffs as a rule of thumb, and BAL definitely has the better defense. The case against BAL is this...Joe Flacco #1. He didn't do much to help them beat HOU, and granted he should be able to do more against a bad NE D, but after being called out by his own guys this week I don't expect anything great from him. BAL also has a tendency to turn the ball over on the road this year. Actually, they just don't play very well on the road in general only going 4-4 this year. Historically (the last 3 years), the team they plays better (wins by the largest margin) in the divisional round has won every year in the championship game...BAL struggled and only won by 7 while NE cruised. I do believe the line is very close to what the spread will actually finish at, but to buy BAL you have to be thinking that Flacco will play adequate, they won't turn it over, and the defense can limit NE enough to allow the BAL offense to keep up. BAL only averaged 24 ppg this season, but they only got blown out twice, so the odds of them keeping it within a TD are likely. With that being said, I went with NE. Why NE? In my mind, their superior offense is more of an advantage than BAL's superior defense. If I had to pick either unit (NE D or BAL O) to step up and play above their head for one game only I would take the NE D at home. Also, every team that has played a tight divisional playoff game (won by 7 or less) in the last 3 years has lost the next round. The trend I'm seeing is that Super Bowl teams have an easy time in the divisional round and don't sweat it until at least this week. BAL definitely does not fit that criteria. I hate picking against Brady/Belichick ever, especially in a big game like this. At -6.5 this is an absolute no brainer for me to take NE, but the -7.5 offers some doubt. NE has the look of a determined team that is driven to get back to prominance in the league, and there is also a revenge factor built in on this one for the beatdown BAL put on them last time they met in the Playoffs. Only 2 times in the last 3+ years has a team won the game and not covered the spread (BAL last week, and a certain Purple team at NO a couple of years back at +3.5) so I feel like it comes down to picking the team you think will win the game and don't be influenced by the points. So with that I have to take the home team, the better team, the better QB and the PATS to win.
CALL: NE wins 31-20. Brady plays like Brady, Flacco tries to prove to everyone that he is big-time and fails miserably against a brilliant Belichick defensive plan, and nobody covers Gronkowski.
NYG at SF (-2.5)
10 on NYG and 6 on SF
SF (MC,MT,CP,LW,JH,MO)
I figured this one out just a few minutes after the 4th NYG TD at the silent Lambeau field last week. Nobody is playing like the G-Men right now. Eli is not turning it over, the WR's/OL/RB's are healthy and moving the ball. The defense is playing at the same level as the last Super Bowl run the NYG made and getting tons of pressure with their front 4. SF is coming off a "nobody gave us a chance" win last week against NO, which we've seen is the kiss of death for the next round in recent history. The QB battle is an easy one, Eli > Alex. I'll give it to Smith that he played better last week, but that's against a poor NO defense that blitzes every down and has holes in their coverage. And they totally shut down the 49ers offense for most of the game but allowed points in the end and on short fields after some of the 5ish TO's that NO committed. That won't happen this week. NYG won't turn it over like NO. The defenses are both very good, the weather sounds like it will be brutal, and the turnover battle is about even. The big difference here is on offense. You have a rookie HC with a QB who is in his first playoff run vs. a veteran HC with an elite QB. I've heard a lot of bad weather = advantage 49ers talk this week. I don't necessarily agree with that. Both teams are playing on the sloppy track, so I have a hard time giving an advantage one way or another. They can both play D and run the ball, typically the 2 major factors you look at in bad weather games.
CALL: I like NYG to win 23-20 in a tight game. Give me the better QB and the points with a team that is playing better than anyone against a team that won a fluky home game last week and has a ? at QB.
Both games are worth 5 points this week for a 10 point week in total. Here are the standings once again coming into the week:
POST-SEASON W
JR 50
CP 44
TN 43
GT 43
AW 41
MC 40
MT 40
SS 39
GR 37
RO 37
MR 36
MH 35
LW 33
JG 29
MO 27
JH 26
MS 0
I have a 6 point lead, but could be passed this week by CP is he sweeps with his BAL/SF picks. 20 points available next week (10 for game, +10 single point props) so lots of room left to grow for those of you that have some extra ground to make up. Plus I'm 8-0 in the playoffs so far, so I'm bound to go 0-2 this week right?
Good Luck.
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