Thursday, January 19, 2012

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Championship Sunday Lines

Here we go - 2 games this week, here are the lines.

Each of these is worth 5 points for a grand total of 10 available for this week.

BAL
NE -7.5

NYG
SF -2.5

Send me your picks by Thursday.

Monday, January 16, 2012

Divsional Round Review



















Well, that was fun. The Packer fun facts are everywhere today...some of my favs:

- 1st 15-1 team ever to not even MAKE the NFC Championship Game, they truly out did us there.
- Daunte Culpepper has won more playoff games at Lambeau than Aaron Rodgers
- Wisconsin teams can't defend the Hail Mary

G-reg made a good point, they will have plenty of time on their hands to keep making more commercials.

What a pathetic performance...it was glorious. Rodgers looked rusty and inaccurate, the WR's kept dropping balls, the back kept fumbling, and the defense played...well, they played like the defense has all year in GB. The clever comebacks are coming from the loyal Packer-backers..."I didn't see the Vikings even in the playoffs." Ouch, that hurts. The point isn't a GB vs. MN thing, it's more of a I-HATE-MY-RIVALS thing and want them to fail at all costs and I enjoy their misery when they do fail because they all take this whole thing so much more seriously than any normal person should. That's why this is fun.

Anyway, moving on from the most recent Sconny collapse (see Brew Crew and Vadgers), it was a pretty decent week in the Football Challenge.

Here are the total post-season standings as of today:

POST-SEASON W


JR 50

CP 44

TN 43

GT 43

AW 41

MC 40

MT 40

SS 39

GR 37

RO 37

MR 36

MH 35

LW 33

JG 29

MO 27

JH 26

MS 0

I went 4-0 again, as did BOMB. Nobody put down an 0'fer, but a lot of 1-3's this week. But only 20 points of the 50 available in the NFL playoffs have passed, so there's still time.
 
This week's 2 lines will be sent out tomorrow.
 
Good Luck!!

Thursday, January 12, 2012

NFL Playoff Picks - Divisional Round

Week 2 of the NFL Playoffs are upon us. I'm not sure how you guys feel, but the games this week seemed brutally tough to pick. We are at a 9-7 split in all 4 games.

NO at SF (+3.5)
9 on NO, only 7 on SF (JR,AW,GR,TN,CP,LW,MO).
This was the toughest game of the week for me to pick. On the one hand you have the Saints and their crazy streak of scoring 40+ in 4 straight games and covering their last 9 in a row. They are playing better than anyone right now, and I thought there was no way I would bet against this team this week. However, every bit of research and digging I did led me toward the 49ers rather than NO. The only real reason I had for picking NO is because they are hot and I think they are the best team...not real scientific. Why SF? Lots of reasons...1)NO on the road on grass is not nearly the same club as NO on turf or on turf at home. 2) Defense wins titles...picking the better defense always seems to be a safe play in the playoffs, SF is far superior on D to NO. 3)Turnovers...SF is a +2.2 TO per game this year while NO is actually a -.5 per game. Do you know in the last 3 years how many teams with a negative TO margin made it past round 2...NONE. 4) The whole world is discounting SF, they went 13-3 and are getting 3.5 at home. A home dog in this round is EXTREMELY rare, and no doubt it will be a motivator. 72% of all bets are picking the Saints right now...a % that high qualifies the 49ers for the "nobody believes in us" status, which is a dangerous thing as a home dog. And since the spread usually doesn't come into play in these games, I'll call for an outright W for the 49ers.
CALL: SF wins 20-17...at least 4 Akers FG's make the difference.

DEN at NE (-13.5)
9 on DEN and 7 on NE (JR,AW,SS,RO,TN,GT,JH)
This was the easiest pick of the weekend for me. You have Tebow in off of a perfect storm, miracle type win...and then you have the best coach/QB combo in the game. Giving 13.5 in a playoff game is not ideal, but I think it will be a slam dunk. Why NE? 1)DEN coming in off of that big win as a big dog reminds me a lot of SEA last year after beating NO then flopping against the Bears. They have already done more than was expected, so getting that kind of juice going again this week is unlikely...and you are not at home and you are playing a rested, healthy, better team than PIT. 2)Turnovers. The only other negative TO team in the final 8 is DEN, while the Pats are +1.6/game. A huge difference. The way NE scores will likely force DEN to open it up if they get behind early, then the turnover issues will come into play. 3) NE is so due for a good playoff win. They have really struggled the last couple of years in the playoffs, so a lot of frustration will be coming out this week. 4) Belichick game planning to stop Tebow...I know the Pats D is not outstanding, but he'll come up with enough offense and intricate schemes on D to make Jesus struggle a lot in this one. The bottom line is DEN has NO CHANCE to win this game outright...yep, 0% chance. So if that's the case you have to take the home fav.
CALL: NE 38-10.

HOU at BAL (-7.5)
9 on HOU and 7 on BAL (MR,MH,SS,RO,TN,LW,JH)

I went with a rookie QB on the road in the playoffs in this one. In my mind, these 2 are pretty much the same team. Average to below average QB, great running games, big play WR's, and great defenses. I just feel like this has low scoring nail biter written all over it this weekend. Neither team trusts their QB enough to throw it 40 times, so there should be a heavy dose of conservative running attacks and safe TE and short WR passes. A lot of you have mentioned that you chose Ravens because of Yates being on the other side...well, I don't think Joe Flacco is actually that much of an upgrade from TJ. Both defenses are well above average and will likely cancel each other out. So the winner comes down to who makes the plays on offense. HOU's offense actually outperformed BAL by quite a large margin this year in YPP (5.8 vs. 5.3)(adjusted for HOU road and BAL home). I think they are more fearless and have more of a big play threat at this point, which makes them dangerous. The Ravens have not covered large lines all year (1-6 ATS as fav of more than 7). I think that's because they simply don't have the offensive ability to beat people by large margins. The only thing that could doom the Texans in this one is if the Ravens get a couple of D/SPT TD's, then a BAL cover is likely. But I am expecting a grinder of a game where the team that makes the first big play and least mistakes will take over and win.
CALL: HOU wins and covers 13-10.

NYG at GB (-7.5)
9 on NYG and 7 on GB (JG,SS,MT,CP,LW,JH,MO)

This was another tough one for me. My numbers are saying GB wins a close one, so I played it like that by taking NYG, but I really don't have any idea what to expect. The major factors in my favor are 1)NYG are playing extremely well. 2) NYG have a far superior D and pass rush. 3)NYG have enough offense to keep up with GB and could make it a horse race. I'm scared that the Packers have kind of been under the radar for the last couple of weeks. And I'm scared that almost 70% of the bets have come in on NYG. The Pack will be rested, but they have some concerning injuries along the OL that might play into my favor with the fierce NYG pass rush. GB lives off of turnovers on D, Eli is typically very strong in the playoffs but he's been known on occasion to have issues throwing to the wrong color. I think it's in the NYG best interest to run the hell out of it when possible. The more the GB offense is on the bench, the better the chance you have to win. When NYG nearly beat them in the regular season, they were far from full strength on offense with really only 1 of their big 3 WR's healthy. That is not the case any more, so I think they will be able to match GB's explosiveness on offense. The NYG defensive injuries don't concern me, because honestly they won't really stop the Pack a lot even if they are 100% healthy. It will be a shootout, because that's what GB has been playing in all year long. I think it comes down to the wire, and I hope I'm wrong, but I think GB eeks it out.
CALL: GB wins, NYG cover...38-31.

It should be a great weekend of football to watch. Good luck to everyone!!

Need Picks From...

ROE
CORCORAN
OLSON
M.THOMAS
LUKE W.
OGE

Please send them over today.

Thanks.

Also great response to VEGAS TRIP 2012 - looks like it's going to be more than 4 guys this year based on early polling results. Good Stuff.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Vegas Trip 2012

Hey Fellas -

Since the season is winding down and I've gotten a couple of inquiries on this already, I figured I would throw out some Vegas Trip 2012 details so you can start planning and saving for the biggest and best weekend of the year.

DATE: OCT 19 (FRI), 20th, 21st...back on 22nd (MON)

WHERE: Last year we stayed at Harrah's and gambled at the book at the Mirage...expecting a similar plan this year.

COST: The trip itself (room + flight) is about $500-$600 usually. Beyond that, you'll want to bring a bundle of gambling $$$ for all our winners we'll spot on the big board.

I usually book the trip in the early to mid Summer time. We'll fly out on Friday and return on Monday, so those are the 2 days you'll probably want to take off from work (also Saturday/Sunday if necessary). If you are interested, please let me know as we get into the Spring so I can have a complete list and know how many room we need for this year. We typically go with 4, but the more the merrier...anyone who is interested is welcome. For most of us, the weekend consists of tons of booze and sitting at the sports book until they run out of games each night and then moving our diminishing skills over to the pai gow tables or anything else that could take our money. Not a lot of clubs or shows, we hit the sportsbook hard and then find something else to do when the games are over.

This year, we are moving it back to the MEA week to accomodate my partner in crime, the only other guy who hasn't missed a year yet, the infamous JG. It also works out well because our favorite squad just happens to be playing on the road at a certain rival known as the Vadgers that weekend...oh god, I can see the carnage already. We better hope it's an 11am kickoff so we'll still be able to see it when we rush the field to take the axe!

Anyway, it's the greatest time ever if you enjoy booze, sports, and gambling. So start planning now and mark your calendars. I have a feeling this will be discussed about 45 times in the next 6 months before booking, but I just wanted to throw out the reminder and the details so anyone who wants to join in has that opportunity.

Thanks.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Divisional Playoff Lines + Bowl Champ!

First - here are the 4 lines for this weekend. Please send me your 4 picks by Noon Thursday. Each game this week is worth 3 points.

NO
SF 3.5

DEN
NE -13.5

HOU
BAL -7.5

NYG
GB -7.5

Next, wow what a game last night. LSU gets blanked and can't even get over 100 yards of offense. Not exactly the thriller we were expecting/hoping for, but it's officially off-season time for College Football...sad.

Here are your final Bowl Standings:

BOWLS W
SS 32
CP 32
GT 32
JR 30
MT 29
MH 28
TN 28
MR 27
GR 26
MC 26
LW 26
AW 25
RO 25
JH 21
JG 20
MO 17
MS 0

SS won the 3 way tie breaker by winning 4 of 5 BCS games...so another $100 to Steve...congrats, nice work. Now these scores will carry over and be added to your total playoff score to come up with one number. Here's where those standings sit after last night...

POST-SEASON W
JR 38
CP 38
MT 37
SS 36
MC 34
TN 34
GT 34
MR 33
MH 32
RO 31
LW 30
AW 29
GR 28
JG 26
JH 23
MO 21
MS 0

There are still 42 possible points that can be earned, so nobody should be giving up hope quite yet.

Send me your picks - good luck!!

Monday, January 9, 2012

Championship Monday

The big one is tonight, and the Bowl Champion crown is on the line.

BOWLS W
CP 32
SS 29
MT 29
GT 29
JR 27
GR 26
LW 26
AW 25
MH 25
TN 25
MR 24
MC 23
RO 22
JH 21
JG 20
MO 17
MS 0

It's a 3 point game tonight, and CP has a 3 point lead. However, as I mentioned last week, an ALA cover would give SS a 4/5 in BCS picks which would give him the tiebreaker over CP and GT who would each only have 3/5 on BCS picks. So it's pretty simple tonight...ALA = STEVE, again...LSU = COLE. But these 3 points are big for everyone, because it all counts toward you total post-season number.

LSU vs. ALA (+1)
We saw this game 2 months ago, but I have a feeling tonight will be a lot different. I think both teams came out and played tight last time and tried not to make that critical mistake. I feel like with the ample time to preapare (40 days!!) both offenses will find a couple of wrinkles that will be more effective this time around. Defensively, I'll call it a wash. They are the 2 most elite D's in the country so I really can't pick an advantage one way or the other there...although I like LSU's secondary and ALA's front 7 if I had to pick. QB play and special teams are probably going to decide this thing in my opinion. I'm not a big believer in Jordan Jefferson, but I think he might make a special play or 2 tonight that could be the difference just because he is an athlete and can make things happen with his legs. He's also more likely to make the stuipid pick 6 that loses the game...but I think his play will impact the results more than McCarron. ALA will likely go with their steady dose of pound pound pound and toss in the occasional play action and trickeration. I feel like LSU has the edge on SPT as well as they have more dynamic return men and the Grass Eater always seems to pull a blocked punt/fake FG type play out in these big games. My pick is ALA simply because I think overall they are a better team, statistically they are a better team, and coaching wise they are a better team. But LSU has had that luck factor and big play ability all season long, why would it stop now?

CALL: BAMA 19 LSU 16

BAMA lovers = JR, MR, MH, MC, SS, RO, TN, GT - 8 guys on each side...truly a toss up.

Hope you're all able to watch tonight. I'm gathering with the neighborhood gang, who I watched the first LSU-ALA game with back in NOV. That night ended with over 2 liter of Crown cashed out, a case of beer, and for some reason a bottle of Almond Champagne...not sure what happenend there. Expecting more of the same this evening. It's the last NCAA game we'll get for 8 months so enjoy it!!

NFL PLAYOFFS

3 guys rode the 4 home teams to a perfect start in the NFL playoffs...JR, MC, MT are all sitting with 8 points after the first weekend. 12 points are available next weekend with each game being worth 3. There is no payout for NFL only, but it will be added to your Bowl Total to determine the overall post-season champ. Here are those standings with 1 Bowl game left and 7 playoff games left:

POST-SEASON W
CP 38
MT 37
JR 35
SS 33
MC 31
TN 31
GT 31
MR 30
LW 30
AW 29
MH 29
GR 28
RO 28
JG 26
JH 23
MO 21
MS 0

47 points still on the line, so I don't think anyone is officially out yet. The lines for the divisional games will be sent tomorrow.