NFL Playoff Picks & Weekend Bowl Picks

Wildcard weekend start tomorrow, so here are the picks for the weekend:

2 points for each game

CIN at HOU (-3)
5 on CIN (MR, GR, SS, GT, JH)...11 of us on HOU. This was a tough one, but the difference for me was HOU getting healthy (Johnson back at WR) and their defense. I've been a believer in the HOU D all season and playing their 1st ever playoff game at home will surely have everyone ready to go. CIN is a decent little club that actually looks a lot like HOU, but the way they backed their way into the playoffs doesn't give me very good vibes.
CALL: HOU WINS 23-17.

DET at NO (-11)
Split 8-8 on this one. 8 Kitty backers are as follows: JG, AW, RO, TN, GT, CP, LW, MO. Obviously, I hate giving this many points to a team that can score like DET, but nobody is playing like NO right now. If NO was on the road I would be scared, but in the Katrina Shelter they are almost unbeatable. They say you should only take the dog if you think they can win outright...well, I don't.
CALL: NO WINS 41-28.

ATL at NYG (-3)
This was the toughest pick of the week for me. It ended up being very lopsided for FC purposes with only 4 on ATL (GR, MH, JH, MO). What led me to take NYG was a couple of things. 1)Matt Ryan vs. Eli...give me Eli every day of the week. Ryan has not played a quality playoff game yet in his career home or road. 2) ATL on the road in the NY cold will not be nearly the team they are at home. I'm scared because every time I think the Giant have it together they flop and lose, but for some reason I feel like the playoff game will be different. If the NYG win, I feel like it sets up 2 really good games in the NFC next week with all 3 lower seeds having a chance against GB...and that's what I'm pulling for!
CALL: NYG 27-20.

PIT at DEN (+8)
Pretty even split here as well with 7 on PIT and 9 on TEBOW. PIT backers include AW, GR, MH, SS, GT, LW, JH. For me, this was the easiest pick of the week. I like DEN for a lot of reasons...1)PIT is banged up and doesn't score well enough to cover large lines like this. 2)Nobody is giving DEN a chance after the horrible end to the season, a large home dog who nobody is giving a chance...that's my kind of pick (SEA in 2011). I think this will be extremely low scoring and a really close game.
CALL: PIT 10-9.

Not real creative for me this week, picking the 4 home teams to cover and the 4 favorites to win outright. I'm not expecting a 4-0, but the numbers and the circumstances point me in this direction so we'll see what happens.

BOWL GAMES

I gave you the winnings scenarios yesterday, but here are how the picks shake out for the next few Bowl Game this weekend. Remember, these games are just as important as the Playoff games because all accumulated points go into the same bucket to determine the overall Post-Season Champ ($250).

KST vs. ARK (-7.5)
I really liked KST earlier on this one, but I ended up going with ARK. Most of you did the same thing as only 4 guys are on KST in this 2-pt game. JG, AW, RO, MO are backing old Bill Snyder and the Cats tonight. KST has thrived in the underdog role all year, but ARK isn't like the dregs of the B12. I think the Hogs out-athlete them and cover this number easily. Some extremely large cash came in yesterday on ARK that moved the line a full 2 pts from -7.5 to -9.5, so someone else must like them as well!

SMU vs. PITT (-5.5)
SMU has been a disappointment this year, and PITT has the revolving door at head coach. We have only 5 Mustang believers (MR, AW, MC, CP, MO). I took PITT, but if I bet it today I would take SMU. PITT just has so much turmoil with another coach abruptly leaving I can't see them getting up for this one. SMU can score a lot of points, so an unmotivated D could really get torched by them.

ARKST vs. NILL (+1)
Only 5 ARKST backer, and I am one of those. MR, TN, MT, LW join me on this one. I thin their D is far superior to NILL, which in my mind gives them a big edge. ARKST is actually a really good team, but the only tough part is that they lost their coach between the end of the season and the bowl game. But I think this team will be ready to handle the potent NILL attack, and anyone who watched NILL on a TUES/WED/THUR game this year knows that they will probably give up 50 without blinking.

We'll save the Title Game for Monday.

Good Luck to everyone this weekend!!

Bowl Update - Thursday + Need Playoff Picks

Well I guess the 3.5 really didn't come into play last night! Wow, what a beatdown. Since most were on CLEM, the WV win changed the look of the standings quite a bit:

BOWLS W
CP 28
MT 27
SS 26
GT 26
JR 25
LW 24
AW 23
GR 23
TN 23
MH 22
MR 21
RO 21
JG 19
MC 19
JH 18
MO 15
MS 0

CP is the current leader by a point over MT and by 2 over SS and GT. Here are some scenarios:

CP: ARK, SMU, NILL, LSU
MT: ARK, PITT, ARKST, LSU
SS: ARK, PITT, NILL, ALA
GT: ARK, PITT, NILL, ALA

SS and GT will remain tied throughout with the exact same picks left. The tiebreakers are as follows: 1)Most overall games correct, 2)Most BCS games correct. If those are both even, we'll call it a draw and split the pot...in the case of SS vs. GT they both have 19 games won, but SS has one more BCS victory so he would win the tiebreaker.

CP is one up on MT and they are different on both 1 point games...Cole needs 1 of these to beat Mike, if PITT/ARKST cover then MT beats CP. SS is the only other one with a shot at the crown. An ALA,PITT,NILL cover brings the Bowl Title to Steve. Steve would also win via tiebreaker with just an ALA cover, which would put him ahead of MT and tied with CP even if SMU covers. Tiebreaker would be = in total wins, but SS would win by having more BCS wins. So for CP and MT to have a shot they need LSU to cover and MT also needs PITT and ARKST to cover.

In summary, ARK games is meaningless for determining the Bowl Champ.
1. SMU cover = MT eliminated, PITT cover = all 3 alive
2. ARKST cover = CP eliminated(w/PITT cover), NILL cover = MT eliminated
3. ALA cover = SS wins via tiebreak, LSU cover = CP/MT win

That's it in a nutshell. Every game will mean something going forward.

NEED PICKS FROM...

ROE
BOMB
GREG
CORCORAN
STEVE
TAIT
M.THOMAS
LUKE
HAMMER
OGE

Please send them over today so we're set for Saturday and Sunday's games.

Thanks.

Bowl Update - Wednesday

Another 1/2 point decision in a BCS game...greatest Bowl Season Ever!?!?

Tonight we have the 4th installment, and based on the line we could see another 1/2 point decision.

Here are the current standings:

BOWLS W
MT 27
GT 26
CP 25
AW 23
GR 23
SS 23
TN 23
JR 22
MH 22
MR 21
RO 21
LW 21
JG 19
MC 19
JH 18
MO 15
MS 0

Holy horse race Batman! With 10 possible points left, we have 9 guys within 5 points of the lead.

Another big 3 point game tonight...

WV vs. CLEM (-3.5)
Only 4 of us on WV, I am one of those. SS, CP, LW are joining me in rooting for the couch burners tonight. I think it will be close, WV has the defensive edge, and they just need their O to keep up with CLEM. I give the QB edge to CLEM, but the D and coaching edge to WV. I'm hoping for OT, +3.5 is almost a guarantee in OT...right? We'll see tonight.

Quick side note on the Vadgers Rose Bowl dreams being squashed again. I've read so many things and heard so many people say over the last couple of days that it's so pathetic that MN fans are celebrating the WIS loss. Really? I cheer for WIS and IOWA to lose every week, so why would it be any different in a Bowl Game? It's a rivalry...it's fueled on dislike for the other team. My lovely wife, who just this year has discovered her evil Becky/Hogeye taunting side, sent a simple text to 1 of only about 2 or 3 Vadger fans that I call a friend. She simply said "Quack, Quack" after the spike with no time left. Apparently, it was not appreciated as his wife, who works with Anna, said he came upstairs and said..."tell your Anna to go F*ck Off!" So now I ask, why do you think we continue to mock and ridicule you Vadger/Hogeye fans? Because it's too easy and you can't handle it...that's why. Obviously, both of your teams are better than mine right now, great I'm fine with that. But to get so angry over a little jab after a tough game seems ridiculous. Am I shocked...No. Vadger fans (note he's only been a fan since he went to school there so not an actual lifer fan...a.k.a...he's liked them since they've been good) have been living on such a high and mighty perch for the last few years that I think they deserve everything that is coming to them. I told her to send him a quick note last night asking if he wanted to borrow my copies of IOWA beating WIS and Sparty beating WIS in hoops both in Madison. She declined, so I guess she is not at the max level of Gopher fandom quite yet, but she's off to a great start this year! His excuse apparently was he was having beers...k. I'm as passionate about football as anyone, but freaking out and screaming at your "friends" because they took advantage of an opportunity to take a shot at your club is really not cool. Clearly, he can't handle a rivalry if he's not coming out ahead, which is sad. Maybe he just knows this was the last shot for a while with no Superman free agent QB's coming to town, an OC and OL coach that are leaving, and Buckeye Nation likely to grow into the strongest B1G team year in and year out. Greatest Vadger team I've seen...and they could only go 9-3. Maybe a couple of 4-8's will bring that whole crew back to reality...the hoops team staring a 1-4 B1G start in the face will certainly help start the slide!

Wildcard Playoff Lines

Here are the lines for opening weekend of the NFL Playoffs. The Playoffs in total are worth 50 points (same as the Bowl Season). The Wildcard games are worth 2 points each, Division Rounds are worth 3 points each, Championship Games are 5 points each, and the Super Bowl is worth 10 and there will also be 10 prop bets worth 1 point each for Super Bowl week.

Here are the Wildcard Lines - send me your pick in each of these games this week:

CIN
HOU -3

DET
NO -11

ATL
NYG -3

PIT
DEN 8


Good Luck!!

Bowl Update

Crazy set of games yesterday with each 3 pt. game being decided by 1/2 of a point.

CURRENT STANDINGS
BOWLS W
GT 26
MT 24
SS 23
MH 22
CP 22
RO 21
AW 20
GR 20
TN 20
JR 19
JG 19
MC 19
MR 18
LW 18
JH 18
MO 15
MS 0

George and Mike Thomas sit at the top, but we still have 13 possible points left.

It starts tonight with a 3 point game between MICH (-2.5) and VT. We are split 8-8 on this one. GT is on VT, MT is on MICH. Other MICH backers include: JR, AW, GR, TN, CP, LW.

Remember, just because you might not win the Bowl Challenge, you still want to accumulate as many points as you can because the Bowl total will be added to your NFL Playoff total to determine the overall Post-Season winner. At this point, it sure is looking like it will come down to the ALA-LSU game, which we are split 8-8 on as well. After tonight, we have 5 games left, and besides the ALA-LSU we have decided favorites in the rest by 12-4 or 11-5 margins. With this many games left the scenarios are too many to count, but by the weekend I should be able to have something worked out.

NFL Playoff Lines coming shortly...

Regular Season Final Standings and Bowl Game Update

The NYG handled DAL last night and kept it at a total of only 45, so GR took home the $200 for the week 18 tiebreaker. With the DAL loss, CP also missed out on a potential 2nd place tie and TN took home the $100 for 2nd place on the season. Here are the final standings for the entire regular season:

2011 SEASON W L %
SS 137 113 54.8%
TN 136 114 54.4%
CP 134 116 53.6%
GR 134 116 53.6%
JH 134 116 53.6%
MR 133 117 53.2%
MT 128 122 51.2%
MO 125 125 50.0%
MH 123 127 49.2%
RO 123 127 49.2%
GT 123 127 49.2%
JG 123 127 49.2%
JR 122 128 48.8%
AW 122 128 48.8%
LW 118 132 47.2%
MC 116 134 46.4%
MS 63 187 25.2%

We hit 50.8% for the year (not including MS).

$$$ payouts for the regular season look like this:

SS-$350
GR-$200
TN-$150
MH-$100
MR-$100
GT-$100
MS-$100
MO-$50
JR-$50
MT-$50
AW-$50
JH-$50

Shutout for the regular season: RO, CP, LW, MC, JG

But that's over, so let's move on to the Post-Season Challenge, where an additonal $350 is up fro grabs ($250 for overall 1st, $100 for Bowl Game Champ).

BOWL STANDINGS
BOWLS W
MH 15
SS 15
RO 15
MR 14
AW 14
TN 14
LW 14
GT 14
GR 13
CP 13
MT 13
JH 13
JR 12
MC 12
JG 11
MO 11
MS 0

This is through 23 games and 23 possible points. 14 points are available today in the 6 games that are on tap. Another 13 points will be available for the next week. Only 2 guys under .500 right now, and that's only by 1 game...so pretty strong showing so far, but can we do it for the big games that start today?

STAN-OKST (-3.5) 3 point game
4 on STAN and 12 on OKST, including me. SS is on STAN, he's one of the co-leaders. I haven't been on the STAN bandwagon all year, and I love OKST this year...so I didn't see any reason to change now. STAN backers include JG, SS, GT, JH.

WIS-ORE (-6.5) 3 point game
7 on Becky, 9 on DUCKS. 2 of the leaders on DUCKS and 1 on Vadgers. I have DUCKS, but the more I think about it the more I think 6.5 is too high. Oh well, at least I can to cheer for the right side! QUACK!! Becky lovers are MR, AW, RO, TN, LW, JH, MO.

OHIOST-FLA (-2) 2 point game
10 on Buckeyes, 6 on Gators. I'm on OHIOST, FLA is just too much of a wreck on offense for me to think they have a prayer of scoring against the Bucks. I'm sure Urban's provided as many helpful hints as he could about his old club going into this one as well. I think Buckeyes start the momentum train rolling into next year with an easy win today. FLA supporters include AW, MC, RO, MT, GT, LW.

NEB-SC (-1.5) 2 point game
Even split of 8 and 8 on this one. Honestly, this looks like the easiest pick on the board for me. I have not been impressed with team Corn all year, and that SC defense might not allow any points today. Not that SC has a great offense, but I don't think they'll struggle at all today in a low scoring easy win.

MSU-GEO (-4) 2 point game
12 on Sparty and only 4 on GEO. GEO supporters include MR, GR, MC, LW. I really like Sparty here too. I think they've made the jump from annually being a talented disappointment to becoming a team that can win big games and will get another one today.

PSU-HOU (-5) 2 point game
No clue what will happen on this one. We have 6 on PSU and 10 on HOU. I'm on PSU with JG, MC, SS, JH, MO. I guess it comes down to defense for me, like it usually does. However, I'm not sure if PSU will come out inspired or just bored and ready to move from this year into 2012. HOU lost their coach as well, so I feel like this could be a lop-sided one either way.


After today, we have 1 game a day (except THUR) for the next week, so it will be an interesting finish. It's seaparation Monday, so good luck to everyone.

Week 18 Pre-SNF Update

Some wild ones today, but here's the latest look:

WEEK 18
Week 18 W L %
GR 6 3 66.7%
JH 6 3 66.7%
CP 5 4 55.6%
GT 5 4 55.6%
JR 4 5 44.4%
JG 4 5 44.4%
MR 4 5 44.4%
AW 4 5 44.4%
SS 4 5 44.4%
TN 3 6 33.3%
MS 3 6 33.3%
MC 3 7 30.0%
LW 3 7 30.0%
MH 2 7 22.2%
RO 2 7 22.2%
MO 2 7 22.2%
MT 2 7 22.2%

So here's the deal, GR and JH both have NYG...so a NYG cover = a tie between those 2 that would come down to the tiebreaker. GR has 44, JH has 56. GT also has NYG, so he can not catch the leaders. However, if DAL cover the +2.5 then CP would create a 3 way tie for the win for Week 18 and the tiebreaker numbers are as follows:

GR-44
JH-56
CP-41

It's going to be a crazy finish for week 18.

As for the overall title, we have declared a champion. Steve Schuft, wihtout winning a single week on his own this year, is your overall Champ. He has a 1 game lead on TN, and they both have NYG tonight...so congrats to Steve. Tait will either take 2nd all to himself, or a DAL cover would force a 2nd place overall split between Tait and Cole. GR and JH are both a game behind Cole, and MR is a game behind them.

So there you go - tonight will wrap up the regular season of the Football Challenge. I'll throw out a Bowl Update with picks and standings for tomorrow before the games start.

It sounds like after 6+ hours of football today, I'm being strong armed into a viewing of the "Little Rascals" tonight over DAL-NYG, so I'll be a phone follower.

Good Luck to everyone with a dog left in the fight!! Congrats again to Steve on his 54.4% season and $350 payday!!

Week 18 Update through 12pm Games

Here's the weekly stats through the 12pm games:

Wk 18 W L %
GR 4 1 80.0%
CP 3 2 60.0%
GT 4 3 57.1%
JH 4 3 57.1%
JG 3 3 50.0%
MR 3 3 50.0%
AW 2 3 40.0%
MS 2 3 40.0%
MC 3 5 37.5%
LW 3 5 37.5%
SS 2 4 33.3%
RO 2 4 33.3%
MO 2 5 28.6%
JR 1 3 25.0%
MT 1 5 16.7%
TN 1 6 14.3%
MH 0 5 0.0%

38.8% for the early games...wow, that's not good. We've also got quite a race going for the overall title right now:

YTD W
SS 134
TN 133
CP 132
MR 131
GR 131
JH 131
MT 126
MO 124
RO 122
JG 122
MH 121
GT 121
AW 119
LW 118
JR 118
MC 116
MS 62

SS has 4 games left, TN has 3 games left, CP has 5 left, MR has 4 left, GR has 5 left.

More updates coming later - I'll try and figure out some scenarios for both Week 18 and the Overall.