It is the official 1st day of camp for the Gophers of 2010, couldn't be more excited to finally start closing in on the start of the season.
Also, the opening week lines are posted - I'll throw them out soon, but here's the one that matters:
MN
MDTN -4.5
Getting 4.5 at a Sun Belt team...get used to this though, because we'll probably be dogs in 9 or 10 of our games this season! If our defense comes together and plays like I think it can, I love idea of getting points!
More to come.
Friday, August 6, 2010
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
NFC Preview 2010
Time for the other half of the league...obviously, with the news today these have changed a bit, but let's hope #4 makes the right choice and proves me wrong. As of now, I'll assume he's out.
EAST
DAL
Everybody's darling once again this season. As I posted earlier, they still have Wade Phillips, which means they still won't win a damn thing. They are the odds on favorite in Vegas to win the NFC, if I could take a Cowboys or the field pick I would take the field. I give at least 5 teams a better chance at winning the NFC than the 'Boys. The offense was and is good. The defense is actually just average, despite all the hype that tells us otherwise.
NYG
This is not an 8-8 team. Last year they struggled through a ton of injuries to important big guys on both sides of the ball. They also played the 7th toughest schedule in the league last year. Eli put them at a -7 in TO margin, the defense underachieved...see where I'm going with this? Don't count out a veteran club with a good coach and a good QB. This team is my pick to win the East.
PHI
Finally, after years of rumors and good old-fashioned Philly hatred, DMc is gone. In his place is Kevin Kolb, who I'm not sold on quite yet. I think he'll be fine, just like every other QB that has replaced DMc over the last few years with his chronic injuries, but to think that this is an upgrade as some Philly faithful are putting it is just dumb. The offense was good last season, the D was average. I look for both of those units to hold to that level in 2010. They benefitted from a +15 TO margin, which is likely going to change this season, which means this team goes down a bit and misses the playoffs.
WAS
Shanahan is the new sheriff in town in WAS. They lost a ton of close ones last season (2-7) and had a horrible offense. If there is one thing Shanahan can help, it's the offense. They have a stable of RB's that look like and unreal Fantasy team from about 4 years ago (Portis, LJ, Parker), and they acquired the aforementioned D.McNabb to play QB. I always kind of liked Campbell, but McNabb is a clear upgrade. The D wasn't awful last season and a -11 TO margin didn't help things either. I think Shanahan is a winner who needed a fresh start and he'll do some really good thing in WAS this season. This is a sneaky team, who I have tentatively positioned in 4th in the East, but totally wouldn't surprise me if they ended up in a WC slot. New coach + New QB = unpredictable.
NORTH
MIN
Good thing I didn't write this yesterday. I was about 99.99% sure that #4 would be back and the Purple were in for another great year. I'm not saying we're all of a sudden a 5 win team without him, but we clearly can't be at the Super Bowl level until we see what T-Jackalacka has done over the last year without playing. 2009 was great, but we really didn't run the ball effectively and our pass D was also pretty poor. We played an easy schedule (#29) and won 75% of our close games. A lot of things went the way of the Purple in 2009, so it's likely going to go back the other way for 2010. Offensively, we won't be as prolific with the pass and AD will need to be back in rookie form (1800/15 TD). The line must improve, this was kind of a hidden weakness last year because people just look at names and not necessarily the way we played. I think the D will continue to be hungry, but they have to figure something out in the secondary. I'm not counting on Griffin for much, so someone is going to have to step up at CB. The S play can only be better, they were atrocious last year in my opinion. Overall, without #4, I will put this team as a WC in 2010.
GB
I hate to do this, but with the news of today, GB is the clear pick to win the North. They did a everything pretty well last season, but one thing that is going against them is their TO margin. +24 last season....this is ridiculous. They averaged a +1.5 TO per game last year, an insanely high amount that should be nearly impossible to repeat in 2010. And with that, they still only won 11 games and a WC spot. Sadly, this is a no-brainer pick to win the North over the #4-less Purple.
CHI
Lots of changes on this squad in 2010, perhaps the last year of Lovie. The pressure is on, so he decided to get a new OC...the mad scientist Mike Martz. So we have an emotional jerk of an OC to go with our emotional wreck of a QB, but yet they spent cash on Chester in the off-season to be the #2 RB. You know how Martz rolls, they will talk about running the ball, but by week 3 it will be Cutler airing it out 50 times per game. The WR corp is not outstanding and Cutler had a hard enough time not turning it over last season without an extra 15 attempts per game. On D, they spent a ton on Peppers, a guy who many fear will cash that first check and then decide it's not worth the effort any more and be one of those historic FA busts. The defense is probably going to be good, but with a quick strike, pass happy offense, the numbers might not be as pretty as you would expect. I see nothing more than 6 wins for CHI in 2010.
DET
It is the common consensus to state that this team is getting better, so I'll tag along and believe that as well. But my question is, how much better? I like the QB, I think he'll be fine. They have some weapons on offense, but they still only scored 16 ppg in 2009. So a big improvement is to score about 20 ppg? That still puts them near the bottom of the league. The defense was awful in 2009, they made some upgrade, so now they'll give up 27 ppg instead of 31? They had a -16 TO ratio last year, so an improvement on this will be expected. But they still have a D that doesn't force a ton of TO's and a 2nd year QB with a questionable OL and some marginal small RB's. I guess what I'm trying to say is that even an improved Lions team is worth a 4th place finish in the North and a Top 8 pick in the Draft in 2011.
SOUTH
NO
The defending champ will be nice again this year. The offense was unstoppable last season, they ran it and threw it very well. The defense was forcing a lot a turnovers but they stunk against the run in 2009. Definitely a playoff team in 2010, probably division champs...but not a repeat Super Bowl.
ATL
I really like this team for 2010. They were good last year against a tough schedule. I think the offense matures a little this season and really surprises people. I love the coaching staff, and I think they are a sure fire playoff team in 2010 as well.
CAR
Finally, the DelHomme era is over in CAR, somehow Fox survived the entire time and will be fighting for his job for like the 4th year and a row. The D was good, as usual, the offense was very average as usual in 2009. They also played a very tough schedule in 2009. Matt Moore is the guy under center, I have a lot of questions there. The defense lost Peppers, but he might not be as big of a loss as some people think. Overall, this team is in need of a makeover at the top, so this will be Fox's swan song.
TB
2nd year of the Morris regime after a rough start in 2009. They went 1-4 in close games and had a horrible offense...which is a theme with these awful teams. It's also year 2 of Josh Freeman, who I kind of like. The defense struggled as well in 2009, so they'll probably improve a bit...but this is a big rebuilding job and with a 2nd year QB, this will not be a great year for the Bucs.
WEST
SF
Yep, I'm picking Samurai Mike and the 9'ers to win the West. The division is that bad. Alex Smith will lead this team to the playoffs...okay, I'm kind of laughing after that sentence. The defense is pretty good, but the offense still has a way to go. They can't throw, so they probably aren't making any noise in January, but this division is so bad I think I'll put them as the West champs hosting the Purple in round 1.
ARI
The grocery bagger has finally given up and turned the keys over to party guy Leinert...at least temporarily. I bet he'll be out by Week 5 and Derek Anderson will be in. With Anderson under center this team will throw a lot of deep balls to Fitz and try to revive an average running game in a late divisional charge. However, this was not really that great of a team last season, and they true flaws will be obvious this year as they fall short of the playoffs.
SEA
Pete Carroll takes over with guru Jedd Fisch as the QB coach. A bad offense can only get better with Carroll and hopefully a healthy Hasselback. The defense was not great last year either. They stopped the run, but were torched through the air. If I had to pick a totally under the radar sleeper playoff team, this would be it. I don't think they have the talent to win much, but once again, this division is so bad that getting a hot streak with the top QB in the division could propel them to the playoffs.
STL
Finally, the 32nd team. A guaranteed last place finish for STL, even in this bad division. Very very bad team in 2009 that scored less than 11 ppg, but now they have a super high paid 1st year rookie QB who I'm not convinced is going to be a great NFL player. The defense was really bad last year as well, and will be again. #1 pick 2 years in a row...maybe, top 3 next year...definitely.
To recap:
NYG, GB, NO, SF to win the division
MIN, ATL as the WC's
I'll go crazy and pick the NYG to get to the big one with a victory over ATL in the NFC title game.
PATRIOTS over GIANTS in a Super Bowl grudge match.
EAST
DAL
Everybody's darling once again this season. As I posted earlier, they still have Wade Phillips, which means they still won't win a damn thing. They are the odds on favorite in Vegas to win the NFC, if I could take a Cowboys or the field pick I would take the field. I give at least 5 teams a better chance at winning the NFC than the 'Boys. The offense was and is good. The defense is actually just average, despite all the hype that tells us otherwise.
NYG
This is not an 8-8 team. Last year they struggled through a ton of injuries to important big guys on both sides of the ball. They also played the 7th toughest schedule in the league last year. Eli put them at a -7 in TO margin, the defense underachieved...see where I'm going with this? Don't count out a veteran club with a good coach and a good QB. This team is my pick to win the East.
PHI
Finally, after years of rumors and good old-fashioned Philly hatred, DMc is gone. In his place is Kevin Kolb, who I'm not sold on quite yet. I think he'll be fine, just like every other QB that has replaced DMc over the last few years with his chronic injuries, but to think that this is an upgrade as some Philly faithful are putting it is just dumb. The offense was good last season, the D was average. I look for both of those units to hold to that level in 2010. They benefitted from a +15 TO margin, which is likely going to change this season, which means this team goes down a bit and misses the playoffs.
WAS
Shanahan is the new sheriff in town in WAS. They lost a ton of close ones last season (2-7) and had a horrible offense. If there is one thing Shanahan can help, it's the offense. They have a stable of RB's that look like and unreal Fantasy team from about 4 years ago (Portis, LJ, Parker), and they acquired the aforementioned D.McNabb to play QB. I always kind of liked Campbell, but McNabb is a clear upgrade. The D wasn't awful last season and a -11 TO margin didn't help things either. I think Shanahan is a winner who needed a fresh start and he'll do some really good thing in WAS this season. This is a sneaky team, who I have tentatively positioned in 4th in the East, but totally wouldn't surprise me if they ended up in a WC slot. New coach + New QB = unpredictable.
NORTH
MIN
Good thing I didn't write this yesterday. I was about 99.99% sure that #4 would be back and the Purple were in for another great year. I'm not saying we're all of a sudden a 5 win team without him, but we clearly can't be at the Super Bowl level until we see what T-Jackalacka has done over the last year without playing. 2009 was great, but we really didn't run the ball effectively and our pass D was also pretty poor. We played an easy schedule (#29) and won 75% of our close games. A lot of things went the way of the Purple in 2009, so it's likely going to go back the other way for 2010. Offensively, we won't be as prolific with the pass and AD will need to be back in rookie form (1800/15 TD). The line must improve, this was kind of a hidden weakness last year because people just look at names and not necessarily the way we played. I think the D will continue to be hungry, but they have to figure something out in the secondary. I'm not counting on Griffin for much, so someone is going to have to step up at CB. The S play can only be better, they were atrocious last year in my opinion. Overall, without #4, I will put this team as a WC in 2010.
GB
I hate to do this, but with the news of today, GB is the clear pick to win the North. They did a everything pretty well last season, but one thing that is going against them is their TO margin. +24 last season....this is ridiculous. They averaged a +1.5 TO per game last year, an insanely high amount that should be nearly impossible to repeat in 2010. And with that, they still only won 11 games and a WC spot. Sadly, this is a no-brainer pick to win the North over the #4-less Purple.
CHI
Lots of changes on this squad in 2010, perhaps the last year of Lovie. The pressure is on, so he decided to get a new OC...the mad scientist Mike Martz. So we have an emotional jerk of an OC to go with our emotional wreck of a QB, but yet they spent cash on Chester in the off-season to be the #2 RB. You know how Martz rolls, they will talk about running the ball, but by week 3 it will be Cutler airing it out 50 times per game. The WR corp is not outstanding and Cutler had a hard enough time not turning it over last season without an extra 15 attempts per game. On D, they spent a ton on Peppers, a guy who many fear will cash that first check and then decide it's not worth the effort any more and be one of those historic FA busts. The defense is probably going to be good, but with a quick strike, pass happy offense, the numbers might not be as pretty as you would expect. I see nothing more than 6 wins for CHI in 2010.
DET
It is the common consensus to state that this team is getting better, so I'll tag along and believe that as well. But my question is, how much better? I like the QB, I think he'll be fine. They have some weapons on offense, but they still only scored 16 ppg in 2009. So a big improvement is to score about 20 ppg? That still puts them near the bottom of the league. The defense was awful in 2009, they made some upgrade, so now they'll give up 27 ppg instead of 31? They had a -16 TO ratio last year, so an improvement on this will be expected. But they still have a D that doesn't force a ton of TO's and a 2nd year QB with a questionable OL and some marginal small RB's. I guess what I'm trying to say is that even an improved Lions team is worth a 4th place finish in the North and a Top 8 pick in the Draft in 2011.
SOUTH
NO
The defending champ will be nice again this year. The offense was unstoppable last season, they ran it and threw it very well. The defense was forcing a lot a turnovers but they stunk against the run in 2009. Definitely a playoff team in 2010, probably division champs...but not a repeat Super Bowl.
ATL
I really like this team for 2010. They were good last year against a tough schedule. I think the offense matures a little this season and really surprises people. I love the coaching staff, and I think they are a sure fire playoff team in 2010 as well.
CAR
Finally, the DelHomme era is over in CAR, somehow Fox survived the entire time and will be fighting for his job for like the 4th year and a row. The D was good, as usual, the offense was very average as usual in 2009. They also played a very tough schedule in 2009. Matt Moore is the guy under center, I have a lot of questions there. The defense lost Peppers, but he might not be as big of a loss as some people think. Overall, this team is in need of a makeover at the top, so this will be Fox's swan song.
TB
2nd year of the Morris regime after a rough start in 2009. They went 1-4 in close games and had a horrible offense...which is a theme with these awful teams. It's also year 2 of Josh Freeman, who I kind of like. The defense struggled as well in 2009, so they'll probably improve a bit...but this is a big rebuilding job and with a 2nd year QB, this will not be a great year for the Bucs.
WEST
SF
Yep, I'm picking Samurai Mike and the 9'ers to win the West. The division is that bad. Alex Smith will lead this team to the playoffs...okay, I'm kind of laughing after that sentence. The defense is pretty good, but the offense still has a way to go. They can't throw, so they probably aren't making any noise in January, but this division is so bad I think I'll put them as the West champs hosting the Purple in round 1.
ARI
The grocery bagger has finally given up and turned the keys over to party guy Leinert...at least temporarily. I bet he'll be out by Week 5 and Derek Anderson will be in. With Anderson under center this team will throw a lot of deep balls to Fitz and try to revive an average running game in a late divisional charge. However, this was not really that great of a team last season, and they true flaws will be obvious this year as they fall short of the playoffs.
SEA
Pete Carroll takes over with guru Jedd Fisch as the QB coach. A bad offense can only get better with Carroll and hopefully a healthy Hasselback. The defense was not great last year either. They stopped the run, but were torched through the air. If I had to pick a totally under the radar sleeper playoff team, this would be it. I don't think they have the talent to win much, but once again, this division is so bad that getting a hot streak with the top QB in the division could propel them to the playoffs.
STL
Finally, the 32nd team. A guaranteed last place finish for STL, even in this bad division. Very very bad team in 2009 that scored less than 11 ppg, but now they have a super high paid 1st year rookie QB who I'm not convinced is going to be a great NFL player. The defense was really bad last year as well, and will be again. #1 pick 2 years in a row...maybe, top 3 next year...definitely.
To recap:
NYG, GB, NO, SF to win the division
MIN, ATL as the WC's
I'll go crazy and pick the NYG to get to the big one with a victory over ATL in the NFC title game.
PATRIOTS over GIANTS in a Super Bowl grudge match.
Uh-oh...
You knew he couldn't stay out of the news for too long...Mr. FAVRE is apparently having a press release today to announce, as speculated, that he is done.
So even though this sounds definitive, I have a hard time believing this is the end. Assuming this happens as reported I see this going a couple of different ways:
1) He changes his mind yet again and comes back DURING the season and saves a 2-5 team after the Sunday night game at Lambeau.
2) It's a facade, and he actually is just buying himself some more time before coming in to camp...but he's there for the opener.
3) For real - he's done...and it's time to panic...a lot
Of these options, I give #3 as the least likely...I just can't believe this might be the case. I can see him drawing it out as long as possible and getting some extra time, but I really didn't think there was any way he was not returning this season.
How do we move on...Sage, TJack, Joe Webb...pray for us. This team INSTANTLY goes from Super Bowl contender to non-playoff team in the blink of an eye. This is why you solve your QB problems in the off-season when you have a chance to grab a guy like McNabb. I am betting on TJACK being the guy now since he was #2 last year and Sage still appears to suck as he was picked off 3 times by Chris Cook a couple of days ago.
Quick schedule rundown with T-Jackalacka under center...
L, L, W = 1-2 into the bye
L,L,L,L = tough stretch puts us to 1-6 and out of the race
WWWWWW = win 6 in a row and start to figure it out (7-6)
W,L,W = 9-7...actually better than I thought.
This schedule isn't that tough. 1st half is very difficult, 2nd half is extremely easy. If T-Jackalacka can pull out a couple of surprise W's early this could be a 10 or 11 win team.
Nevermind the panic button...we're fine.
So even though this sounds definitive, I have a hard time believing this is the end. Assuming this happens as reported I see this going a couple of different ways:
1) He changes his mind yet again and comes back DURING the season and saves a 2-5 team after the Sunday night game at Lambeau.
2) It's a facade, and he actually is just buying himself some more time before coming in to camp...but he's there for the opener.
3) For real - he's done...and it's time to panic...a lot
Of these options, I give #3 as the least likely...I just can't believe this might be the case. I can see him drawing it out as long as possible and getting some extra time, but I really didn't think there was any way he was not returning this season.
How do we move on...Sage, TJack, Joe Webb...pray for us. This team INSTANTLY goes from Super Bowl contender to non-playoff team in the blink of an eye. This is why you solve your QB problems in the off-season when you have a chance to grab a guy like McNabb. I am betting on TJACK being the guy now since he was #2 last year and Sage still appears to suck as he was picked off 3 times by Chris Cook a couple of days ago.
Quick schedule rundown with T-Jackalacka under center...
L, L, W = 1-2 into the bye
L,L,L,L = tough stretch puts us to 1-6 and out of the race
WWWWWW = win 6 in a row and start to figure it out (7-6)
W,L,W = 9-7...actually better than I thought.
This schedule isn't that tough. 1st half is very difficult, 2nd half is extremely easy. If T-Jackalacka can pull out a couple of surprise W's early this could be a 10 or 11 win team.
Nevermind the panic button...we're fine.
Monday, August 2, 2010
MLB August 1st Check In
Quick MLB look, only 2 months to go!
AL
EAST
NYY and TB - looks like a fight to the finish we these 2. Both are playing extremely well, and will both be in the playoffs. BOS needs to stop pretending they have a chance...trending the wrong way and they might as well focus on the soon to be AFC Champion Patriots.
CENTRAL
Looks like this is becoming a true 2 horse race with all of DET's issues right now. MIN and CWS are virtually identical right now, but the Twins have actually hit much better than CWS and pitching has been about even. One other note, KC was a -78 run differential for the month...tough to do when you only play about 25 games.
WEST
I still really like TEXAS, but I'm just trying to decide whether or not they can be dangerous in OCT. I'm leaning no right now, but they've got 2 months to prove me wrong. LAA is trying to stay in it, but they need to make up some ground fast to make this a race for SEPT. I think they need to gain at least 4-5 games in the standings during AUG...which is unlikely.
NL
East
ATL-PHILLY are battling for the top spot. Most think Oswalt will tilt to scales to PHI, but I'm sticking with Hotlanta. Nobody in the East plays well on the road, and PHI has more road games left. ATL's pitching is just too good for me to go against them. FLA and NYM are trying to hold on, but neither is a serious threat so I won't even consider it at this point.
Central
Cards vs. Reds...give me the experience and pitching of STL in this battle. I've been on the "Reds are getting close" bandwagon for about 3 years, but STL is the pick here. Pencil them into the playoffs.
West
All of these top teams are playing pretty well right now. COL and LAD dropped a few games this month, but SF really picked it up. SF and SD are the clear leaders right now, and I love what both did around the deadline. I'm holding on to my COL pick and expecting an AUG/SEPT surge...but they don't play the same kind of game as the top 2, by that I mean they can't pitch nearly as well. But if they can turn some of these late series into slugfests, then they have a chance.
NL Wildcard
The losers of all of the above races have a shot at the WC, it's wide open. I tend to think pitching rules all, especially in September, so I'm leaning SF/PHI on this one.
AL
EAST
NYY and TB - looks like a fight to the finish we these 2. Both are playing extremely well, and will both be in the playoffs. BOS needs to stop pretending they have a chance...trending the wrong way and they might as well focus on the soon to be AFC Champion Patriots.
CENTRAL
Looks like this is becoming a true 2 horse race with all of DET's issues right now. MIN and CWS are virtually identical right now, but the Twins have actually hit much better than CWS and pitching has been about even. One other note, KC was a -78 run differential for the month...tough to do when you only play about 25 games.
WEST
I still really like TEXAS, but I'm just trying to decide whether or not they can be dangerous in OCT. I'm leaning no right now, but they've got 2 months to prove me wrong. LAA is trying to stay in it, but they need to make up some ground fast to make this a race for SEPT. I think they need to gain at least 4-5 games in the standings during AUG...which is unlikely.
NL
East
ATL-PHILLY are battling for the top spot. Most think Oswalt will tilt to scales to PHI, but I'm sticking with Hotlanta. Nobody in the East plays well on the road, and PHI has more road games left. ATL's pitching is just too good for me to go against them. FLA and NYM are trying to hold on, but neither is a serious threat so I won't even consider it at this point.
Central
Cards vs. Reds...give me the experience and pitching of STL in this battle. I've been on the "Reds are getting close" bandwagon for about 3 years, but STL is the pick here. Pencil them into the playoffs.
West
All of these top teams are playing pretty well right now. COL and LAD dropped a few games this month, but SF really picked it up. SF and SD are the clear leaders right now, and I love what both did around the deadline. I'm holding on to my COL pick and expecting an AUG/SEPT surge...but they don't play the same kind of game as the top 2, by that I mean they can't pitch nearly as well. But if they can turn some of these late series into slugfests, then they have a chance.
NL Wildcard
The losers of all of the above races have a shot at the WC, it's wide open. I tend to think pitching rules all, especially in September, so I'm leaning SF/PHI on this one.
Football Challenge 2010-11
Well Gentlemen, we're a mere 30 days away from kicking off the gambling, er...football season for 2010. I have 10 guys on this list, 2 over last year's regular season numbers. Here's the rundown for this season:
1. $60 to play ($40 for regular season, $20 for Playoff/Bowls)
- figured I would do this all at once this year to make it simpler
Please send off a check in the mail for $60 or pay me in person or via paypal...whatever works best for you guys. I need the money by kickoff on September 2nd, so you have exactly 30 days to scrounge up enough to play for this year. Please let me know if you have any questions.
2. If you don't want to play - let me know. I mean it's only $60 for a full 5 months of entertainment...but if you're out, let me know so I can find someone else.
3. Picks will remain the same as last year with a slight modification. 10 NCAA/5 NFL games each regular week. However, week 1 will consist of 15 NCAA games since the NCAA is the only game in town for 1 week. Also, once the NCAA is over and the NFL is the only thing going we will only be picking 10 NFL games and not 15 like the last couple of years. I decided it was asking too much to pick winners in nearly every game for a single week and wanted to make this a little more manageable...if I'm wrong let me know and I can be persuaded back to the old way.
4. Picks, as always, will be due on Thursday so I have time to compile and send out a list to everyone so you know what to watch for.
5. We will continue to use the beginning lines posted on the USATODAY website for all games, no line changes throughout the week - just the opening lines.
6. PAYOUTS
10 guys X $60 each = $600
$400 for regular season, $200 for playoffs/bowls
Regular Season = $360 for 1st, $40 for 2nd
Playoffs = $180 for 1st, $20 for 2nd
I think that is all I have - other questions, please ask. Send me your money before September 2nd...only 30 days away!!
Who Hates Iowa!?!?!
1. $60 to play ($40 for regular season, $20 for Playoff/Bowls)
- figured I would do this all at once this year to make it simpler
Please send off a check in the mail for $60 or pay me in person or via paypal...whatever works best for you guys. I need the money by kickoff on September 2nd, so you have exactly 30 days to scrounge up enough to play for this year. Please let me know if you have any questions.
2. If you don't want to play - let me know. I mean it's only $60 for a full 5 months of entertainment...but if you're out, let me know so I can find someone else.
3. Picks will remain the same as last year with a slight modification. 10 NCAA/5 NFL games each regular week. However, week 1 will consist of 15 NCAA games since the NCAA is the only game in town for 1 week. Also, once the NCAA is over and the NFL is the only thing going we will only be picking 10 NFL games and not 15 like the last couple of years. I decided it was asking too much to pick winners in nearly every game for a single week and wanted to make this a little more manageable...if I'm wrong let me know and I can be persuaded back to the old way.
4. Picks, as always, will be due on Thursday so I have time to compile and send out a list to everyone so you know what to watch for.
5. We will continue to use the beginning lines posted on the USATODAY website for all games, no line changes throughout the week - just the opening lines.
6. PAYOUTS
10 guys X $60 each = $600
$400 for regular season, $200 for playoffs/bowls
Regular Season = $360 for 1st, $40 for 2nd
Playoffs = $180 for 1st, $20 for 2nd
I think that is all I have - other questions, please ask. Send me your money before September 2nd...only 30 days away!!
Who Hates Iowa!?!?!
Thursday, July 29, 2010
AFC Preview 2010
Holy Crap! It's almost August and I haven't thrown out a preview for anything yet...so I figured I'd start with the NFL and crank out my AFC Preview this afternoon.
EAST
NE - this, as always, is my favorite to win the AFC. After a slightly down year by Belichick/Brady standards, this team will be ready to roll and step on some throats this season. They actually played really well against a very tough schedule last season, they have a very talented yet young and unproven defense, and they have the man with the cut off sleeves...which might be all you need. They will win the East and the AFC.
MIA - this is a club I do like. They played the 2nd toughest schedule in the league last season and still almost made the playoffs. Henne will be in year 2, and actually he performed much better than Mr. San-cheese last season. They had an average passing game last year and now they add Marshall to the mix with a good coach and more of a disciplinarian staff, he might be real nice in 2010. The D struggled at times last year...enter Mike Nolan. He can bring this group back to respectability. They are creative, they run the ball really well, and now I think they will be able to throw it well, too. The D will improve and the Fins have a shot at a WC spot this year, I'll pick them to make it.
NYJ - wow, the bandwagon is full on this club. Everyone is expecting HUGE things out of this club based on the way they finished 2009. I don't. Rex and his style doesn't last...his dad tried the same thing and that didn't end well. Sanchez was really not good last season, and although he'll be improved he still can't win anything this year. What about all the additions? Well, you have an unhappy Revis to team with Crazy Cromartie...nice talent, but very questionable locker room mix. Then let's add in Braylon and Santonio with our 2nd year already larger than life in his own mind QB. We dumped our RB and added LT...face it guys, LT is done and done. The man is less than a shell of his former self, so don't expect any major bounce back season...it won't happen. The D is good, but this team got lucky to even make the playoffs last season and the brash attitude with an emotional coach is a recipe for disaster. They could sneak in as a playoff team once again, but stop planning the parade route.
BUF - maybe the biggest sure thing on the board this season is picking BUF 4th in the East. Chan Gailey takes over, yep...that won't help. Their offense was terrible last season, and it will be again this year. They can't throw the ball, which equates to disaster in today's NFL. The defense has some bright spots, but this team isn't even on the same planet as the other 3 in the East. It's going to be another long one in the big city of Buffalo.
NORTH
BAL - I love this team. They were extremely good last year and lost more than their share of close games (2-5 decided by 1 score). They have a good coach, heady young QB, and they can run it well. The passing game has been kind of average...but I think that will change in a big way this season. Anquan Boldin will totally change the way you defend this team. Offensively, they should be elite. Does anyone even question their defense? Year in and year out, this is one of the best defenses that forces a ton of turnovers every year. I love them as the North champ, and I am tempted to take them as my AFC Super Bowl representative.
PIT - I still love Mike Tomlin, and I think he does a great job...but this team is kind of a mess right now. The Big Ben saga has been well chronicled, he'll be out for likely the opening 4 games...3 of which are against good teams. So this team will be digging out of a hole early once again. In 2009 PIT really had a hard time running the ball effectively, this must change to improve...especially with QB questions. They also lose Santonio Holmes, which can't help the offense either. They lost 7! games by one score or less in 2009, so they were obviously close. In another division I don't put them at #2, but with the Bungals and Browns behind them I didn't have a choice. Non-playoff year #2 for Tomlin and company.
CIN - I know what you're thinking..."they got TO and Ocho Cinco, they can't be stopped!" Wrong. TO is really about as valuable as LT right now. They had a very hard time scoring points last season, and I look for that to be the case again. The went 6-3 in close games, so that will come back to the pack a bit. The defense overall is good, but they struggle to stop the run. I just don't think much of this club and I am writing off last season to a batch of good luck. This is a .500 team at best in 2010.
CLE - why did they keep Mangenius? They got hot toward the end of last year, and I guess it was enough to keep this bozo around. The offense was HORRIBLE in 2009, but now they have Jake Delhomme and it will maybe actually be worse. Delhomme has proven over the last 3 years that he's not an NFL QB, so why did CLE grab him as their starter...because it's Cleveland, don't ask questions. Their defense is beyond atrocious, and based on the lack of changes in the off-season, they plan to keep it that way. Put them in the Top 5 for NFL Draft 2011 right now.
SOUTH
IND - boring pick, I know. But if you look at history you can't possibly pick anyone else in this spot. This team just continues to win 11-13 games every year and then take their chances in the Playoffs. I was skeptical of Caldwell last season, but he proved me wrong. Maybe it helped that he has one of the best ever playing QB for him? Last year was silly, they went 7-0 in close games and didn't lose until they didn't really care anymore. The D was only average last season, which scares me for a top flight Super Bowl contender. The run defense was really bad, and now Bob Sanders might be never coming back...this smells like trouble. But not enough trouble for Manning to not win another AFC South crown.
TEN - I love Jeff Fisher. He's been a really great coach with really marginal talent for quite a while now. Last year the 0-6 start pretty much ended all hope, but the 8-2 finish peaked everybody's interest for this season. VY became the QB, hands down he was more effective than Collins. Vince's win may not be pretty, but the guy wins a lot of games in one way or another...which I love. The defense was shockingly bad last season, but that will likely improve. Great running game, and a great coach put these guys at #2 for me in the South and get them in the playoffs as a dangerous WC team.
HOU - this team feels like it is so close every year but they just can't get over that hump. Schaub finally stayed healthy, and magically they almost made the playoffs. This is a team who really struggles to run the ball effectively. They played a very easy schedule last season and still couldn't sneak into the playoffs. I have to believe the running game will improve a bit, and as long as Schaub and AJ stay healthy the offense should score some points. The D is full of young talent, but in the whole scheme of things I rate them as a middle of the pack unit. Another near miss on the playoffs this season for HOU.
JAC - team trainwreck alert. These guys have all the makings of a complete disaster this season. Coach on the hot seat who should have already probably been fired, offense that can't throw with a below average QB and no WR's, no pass defense whatsoever last season (#32 in NFL), and they are coming off a lucky season in which 6 of their 7 wins were by a TD or less. 5 of their first 6 are against potential playoff teams...Del Rio doesn't survive the whole season and the dumb guy closes it out as the interim coach.
WEST
SD - in one of the worst division in all of football, this is the only bright spot. But even this club should be down a bit from last season. They went 6-1 in close games last year and did it without any kind of a running game. Rivers is great, and the passing game could be #1 again this year - but I also think the running game will pick back up now that the old man has finally left the team. The defense, however, was not too strong in 2009. They really struggled against the run, and what was an average pass defense has likely gotten worse with the Cromartie loss. There should be plenty of points scored in their games this season, but in the AFC West there can be no other pick besides SD with taking some really good drugs.
KC - I have a hard time saying this, but I kind of like this team in 2010. I think Haley might be an okay coach, and I know the coordinators will work out for him. Weis and Crennel seemed to flourish in those roles before even though they were epic failures as HC's. They lost 6 lose games last season and only scored 18 ppg. You have to believe Chuck will turn that around. Cassell could work out okay, I think they are fine with him at QB. They have some weapons offensively to work with as well. On D, they couldn't stop the run last season, which kills any team at any level. The front 7 is loaded with high picks and the secondary should also be improved...I look for this D to be pretty good with the new leadership of Crennel. Not a contender for the playoffs this year, but not the embarassment of 2009 again either.
DEN - another team that I think might have a trainwreck type of a season. They play enough bad teams to keep the record decent, but this team doesn't seem to have a clue of what it wants to do. I mean Tim Tebow? Really? They only scored 20 ppg last season, and I don't see that going up considering Kyle Orton is still their guy at QB and they traded Marshall, their biggest playmaker. The running game was all kinds of worthless last season, and it probably will be again. McDaniels is trying to run a Patriot like offense with him as Belichick and Orton as Brady...I think that's a bad idea. Defensively, they are okay and play the pass really well. This will keep them in games, but don't expect anything from this club in 2010.
OAK - I heard M&M this morning talking about how they kind of like this club in 2010. Why?!? It's the Raiders! They scored 10 or less points 7! times last season!! That's like 1/2 the games! The have Jason Campbell running the show, who I like, but the guys around him are still below average. The defense was not solid last season either, and I doubt it will be this year. I was tempted to put them over the Broncos, but I just can't until I really see some changes.
So in summary: NE, BAL, IND, SD, MIA, TEN as my playoff teams with NE in the big one but BAL as a very very close 2nd.
Thoughts?
NFC coming next week.
EAST
NE - this, as always, is my favorite to win the AFC. After a slightly down year by Belichick/Brady standards, this team will be ready to roll and step on some throats this season. They actually played really well against a very tough schedule last season, they have a very talented yet young and unproven defense, and they have the man with the cut off sleeves...which might be all you need. They will win the East and the AFC.
MIA - this is a club I do like. They played the 2nd toughest schedule in the league last season and still almost made the playoffs. Henne will be in year 2, and actually he performed much better than Mr. San-cheese last season. They had an average passing game last year and now they add Marshall to the mix with a good coach and more of a disciplinarian staff, he might be real nice in 2010. The D struggled at times last year...enter Mike Nolan. He can bring this group back to respectability. They are creative, they run the ball really well, and now I think they will be able to throw it well, too. The D will improve and the Fins have a shot at a WC spot this year, I'll pick them to make it.
NYJ - wow, the bandwagon is full on this club. Everyone is expecting HUGE things out of this club based on the way they finished 2009. I don't. Rex and his style doesn't last...his dad tried the same thing and that didn't end well. Sanchez was really not good last season, and although he'll be improved he still can't win anything this year. What about all the additions? Well, you have an unhappy Revis to team with Crazy Cromartie...nice talent, but very questionable locker room mix. Then let's add in Braylon and Santonio with our 2nd year already larger than life in his own mind QB. We dumped our RB and added LT...face it guys, LT is done and done. The man is less than a shell of his former self, so don't expect any major bounce back season...it won't happen. The D is good, but this team got lucky to even make the playoffs last season and the brash attitude with an emotional coach is a recipe for disaster. They could sneak in as a playoff team once again, but stop planning the parade route.
BUF - maybe the biggest sure thing on the board this season is picking BUF 4th in the East. Chan Gailey takes over, yep...that won't help. Their offense was terrible last season, and it will be again this year. They can't throw the ball, which equates to disaster in today's NFL. The defense has some bright spots, but this team isn't even on the same planet as the other 3 in the East. It's going to be another long one in the big city of Buffalo.
NORTH
BAL - I love this team. They were extremely good last year and lost more than their share of close games (2-5 decided by 1 score). They have a good coach, heady young QB, and they can run it well. The passing game has been kind of average...but I think that will change in a big way this season. Anquan Boldin will totally change the way you defend this team. Offensively, they should be elite. Does anyone even question their defense? Year in and year out, this is one of the best defenses that forces a ton of turnovers every year. I love them as the North champ, and I am tempted to take them as my AFC Super Bowl representative.
PIT - I still love Mike Tomlin, and I think he does a great job...but this team is kind of a mess right now. The Big Ben saga has been well chronicled, he'll be out for likely the opening 4 games...3 of which are against good teams. So this team will be digging out of a hole early once again. In 2009 PIT really had a hard time running the ball effectively, this must change to improve...especially with QB questions. They also lose Santonio Holmes, which can't help the offense either. They lost 7! games by one score or less in 2009, so they were obviously close. In another division I don't put them at #2, but with the Bungals and Browns behind them I didn't have a choice. Non-playoff year #2 for Tomlin and company.
CIN - I know what you're thinking..."they got TO and Ocho Cinco, they can't be stopped!" Wrong. TO is really about as valuable as LT right now. They had a very hard time scoring points last season, and I look for that to be the case again. The went 6-3 in close games, so that will come back to the pack a bit. The defense overall is good, but they struggle to stop the run. I just don't think much of this club and I am writing off last season to a batch of good luck. This is a .500 team at best in 2010.
CLE - why did they keep Mangenius? They got hot toward the end of last year, and I guess it was enough to keep this bozo around. The offense was HORRIBLE in 2009, but now they have Jake Delhomme and it will maybe actually be worse. Delhomme has proven over the last 3 years that he's not an NFL QB, so why did CLE grab him as their starter...because it's Cleveland, don't ask questions. Their defense is beyond atrocious, and based on the lack of changes in the off-season, they plan to keep it that way. Put them in the Top 5 for NFL Draft 2011 right now.
SOUTH
IND - boring pick, I know. But if you look at history you can't possibly pick anyone else in this spot. This team just continues to win 11-13 games every year and then take their chances in the Playoffs. I was skeptical of Caldwell last season, but he proved me wrong. Maybe it helped that he has one of the best ever playing QB for him? Last year was silly, they went 7-0 in close games and didn't lose until they didn't really care anymore. The D was only average last season, which scares me for a top flight Super Bowl contender. The run defense was really bad, and now Bob Sanders might be never coming back...this smells like trouble. But not enough trouble for Manning to not win another AFC South crown.
TEN - I love Jeff Fisher. He's been a really great coach with really marginal talent for quite a while now. Last year the 0-6 start pretty much ended all hope, but the 8-2 finish peaked everybody's interest for this season. VY became the QB, hands down he was more effective than Collins. Vince's win may not be pretty, but the guy wins a lot of games in one way or another...which I love. The defense was shockingly bad last season, but that will likely improve. Great running game, and a great coach put these guys at #2 for me in the South and get them in the playoffs as a dangerous WC team.
HOU - this team feels like it is so close every year but they just can't get over that hump. Schaub finally stayed healthy, and magically they almost made the playoffs. This is a team who really struggles to run the ball effectively. They played a very easy schedule last season and still couldn't sneak into the playoffs. I have to believe the running game will improve a bit, and as long as Schaub and AJ stay healthy the offense should score some points. The D is full of young talent, but in the whole scheme of things I rate them as a middle of the pack unit. Another near miss on the playoffs this season for HOU.
JAC - team trainwreck alert. These guys have all the makings of a complete disaster this season. Coach on the hot seat who should have already probably been fired, offense that can't throw with a below average QB and no WR's, no pass defense whatsoever last season (#32 in NFL), and they are coming off a lucky season in which 6 of their 7 wins were by a TD or less. 5 of their first 6 are against potential playoff teams...Del Rio doesn't survive the whole season and the dumb guy closes it out as the interim coach.
WEST
SD - in one of the worst division in all of football, this is the only bright spot. But even this club should be down a bit from last season. They went 6-1 in close games last year and did it without any kind of a running game. Rivers is great, and the passing game could be #1 again this year - but I also think the running game will pick back up now that the old man has finally left the team. The defense, however, was not too strong in 2009. They really struggled against the run, and what was an average pass defense has likely gotten worse with the Cromartie loss. There should be plenty of points scored in their games this season, but in the AFC West there can be no other pick besides SD with taking some really good drugs.
KC - I have a hard time saying this, but I kind of like this team in 2010. I think Haley might be an okay coach, and I know the coordinators will work out for him. Weis and Crennel seemed to flourish in those roles before even though they were epic failures as HC's. They lost 6 lose games last season and only scored 18 ppg. You have to believe Chuck will turn that around. Cassell could work out okay, I think they are fine with him at QB. They have some weapons offensively to work with as well. On D, they couldn't stop the run last season, which kills any team at any level. The front 7 is loaded with high picks and the secondary should also be improved...I look for this D to be pretty good with the new leadership of Crennel. Not a contender for the playoffs this year, but not the embarassment of 2009 again either.
DEN - another team that I think might have a trainwreck type of a season. They play enough bad teams to keep the record decent, but this team doesn't seem to have a clue of what it wants to do. I mean Tim Tebow? Really? They only scored 20 ppg last season, and I don't see that going up considering Kyle Orton is still their guy at QB and they traded Marshall, their biggest playmaker. The running game was all kinds of worthless last season, and it probably will be again. McDaniels is trying to run a Patriot like offense with him as Belichick and Orton as Brady...I think that's a bad idea. Defensively, they are okay and play the pass really well. This will keep them in games, but don't expect anything from this club in 2010.
OAK - I heard M&M this morning talking about how they kind of like this club in 2010. Why?!? It's the Raiders! They scored 10 or less points 7! times last season!! That's like 1/2 the games! The have Jason Campbell running the show, who I like, but the guys around him are still below average. The defense was not solid last season either, and I doubt it will be this year. I was tempted to put them over the Broncos, but I just can't until I really see some changes.
So in summary: NE, BAL, IND, SD, MIA, TEN as my playoff teams with NE in the big one but BAL as a very very close 2nd.
Thoughts?
NFC coming next week.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
5 Thoughts
1. MASOLI TO OLE MISS?
So a guy can get convicted of a felony and thrown off the Oregon team, but the good ol' boys down in Mississippi need a QB so they'll look past it. This is just ridiculous and it proves a couple of things. a) If you're good enough, you can do about anything and still get another chance for a desperate team because winning is ALL that matters. b) SEC schools will let ANYONE - if the football team needs you they will find a way to make it work.
2. KIFFIN
Now you've gone and done it Lane. Snaking a coach from under the nose of USC alumni Jeff Fisher and the Titan staff might come back to bite Lane in the ass. Apparently, there was no courtesy call to Fisher until after the coach had already agreed to leave, and Fisher was a bit upset about that. The timing of it is horrible as well with training camp starting this week. I love that Lane just continues to piss people off everywhere he goes (especially TEN), but he might have over stepped this time by getting under the skin of Fisher. Now the AD that hired Lane is gonzo, and I think his time as the HC of the Trojans might be limited. of course, all this can be irrelevant if he wins and wins big. I'm hoping he's there to ride out the sanctions and then he's canned in time for the program to step back up in 5 years.
3. KAHN!
He's back at it again...did you hear this blockbuster yesterday? We dump Sessions and Hollins, 2 guys we just loved and signed as FA's just LAST SUMMER, for 2 guys who we are going to cut to open up more $...and we had to throw in a 2nd round pick. Now I know we wanted to dump both of these guys, but can we ever get a player back that we actually want to have on this team? Opening up all this money would be great if we had a chance at landing a real FA...but we don't. I think I'm more convinced than ever that Kahn is clueless.
4. COWBOYS
The Dez Bryant saga has begun. I think it's a great idea to revolt against tradition and not carry the veteran's pads in training camp. Let's see how many people can hate you on your own team from day 1 of camp...good call. ESPN has apparently adopted Bryant and their new fling since the LeBron thing is finally over. We've pretty much had an hourly update on Dez's day since he's arrived at camp. Yesterday he sat in with the QB's on a meeting rather than taking time off, wow...who's impressed? This is the kind of sports news you get in late July I guess. Personally, I love it that the whole ESPN world thinks DAL is the team to beat. My only concerns for the 'Boys is this: 1)34-3, just 6 months ago at Metrodome and 2) you still have Wade Phillips as your coach...ha ha! If anyone thinks Wade is winning anything beyond the NFC East...well, then you obviously don't know Wade Phillips. I think I'm picking against Jerry's guys in the playoffs already...can I get some odds on that?
5. TWINS
So we didn't get Haren or Lee, but can we win with what we have? I was reading some article this morning about how our staff has been the least lucky statistically by a mile in 2010. I believe it, but that's the chance you take with pitchers like Blacky, Baker, Slowey, and Pavano. They go in with the intention of making people hit the ball, so sometimes it goes against you. But the old baseball saying is that it all evens out by the end of the year, so our luck should be changing...and based upon the last few pitching performances, I think it might be. The bats are hot, Morneausy should be coming back soon, and sweet little baby Jesus looks like he might be finding it a bit after a 5-5 night at KC. I still think this team is the one to beat in the division, and I won't change that thought anytime soon.
So a guy can get convicted of a felony and thrown off the Oregon team, but the good ol' boys down in Mississippi need a QB so they'll look past it. This is just ridiculous and it proves a couple of things. a) If you're good enough, you can do about anything and still get another chance for a desperate team because winning is ALL that matters. b) SEC schools will let ANYONE - if the football team needs you they will find a way to make it work.
2. KIFFIN
Now you've gone and done it Lane. Snaking a coach from under the nose of USC alumni Jeff Fisher and the Titan staff might come back to bite Lane in the ass. Apparently, there was no courtesy call to Fisher until after the coach had already agreed to leave, and Fisher was a bit upset about that. The timing of it is horrible as well with training camp starting this week. I love that Lane just continues to piss people off everywhere he goes (especially TEN), but he might have over stepped this time by getting under the skin of Fisher. Now the AD that hired Lane is gonzo, and I think his time as the HC of the Trojans might be limited. of course, all this can be irrelevant if he wins and wins big. I'm hoping he's there to ride out the sanctions and then he's canned in time for the program to step back up in 5 years.
3. KAHN!
He's back at it again...did you hear this blockbuster yesterday? We dump Sessions and Hollins, 2 guys we just loved and signed as FA's just LAST SUMMER, for 2 guys who we are going to cut to open up more $...and we had to throw in a 2nd round pick. Now I know we wanted to dump both of these guys, but can we ever get a player back that we actually want to have on this team? Opening up all this money would be great if we had a chance at landing a real FA...but we don't. I think I'm more convinced than ever that Kahn is clueless.
4. COWBOYS
The Dez Bryant saga has begun. I think it's a great idea to revolt against tradition and not carry the veteran's pads in training camp. Let's see how many people can hate you on your own team from day 1 of camp...good call. ESPN has apparently adopted Bryant and their new fling since the LeBron thing is finally over. We've pretty much had an hourly update on Dez's day since he's arrived at camp. Yesterday he sat in with the QB's on a meeting rather than taking time off, wow...who's impressed? This is the kind of sports news you get in late July I guess. Personally, I love it that the whole ESPN world thinks DAL is the team to beat. My only concerns for the 'Boys is this: 1)34-3, just 6 months ago at Metrodome and 2) you still have Wade Phillips as your coach...ha ha! If anyone thinks Wade is winning anything beyond the NFC East...well, then you obviously don't know Wade Phillips. I think I'm picking against Jerry's guys in the playoffs already...can I get some odds on that?
5. TWINS
So we didn't get Haren or Lee, but can we win with what we have? I was reading some article this morning about how our staff has been the least lucky statistically by a mile in 2010. I believe it, but that's the chance you take with pitchers like Blacky, Baker, Slowey, and Pavano. They go in with the intention of making people hit the ball, so sometimes it goes against you. But the old baseball saying is that it all evens out by the end of the year, so our luck should be changing...and based upon the last few pitching performances, I think it might be. The bats are hot, Morneausy should be coming back soon, and sweet little baby Jesus looks like he might be finding it a bit after a 5-5 night at KC. I still think this team is the one to beat in the division, and I won't change that thought anytime soon.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Gophers getting points
Two early lines posted at the Hilton...
Gophers +16 vs. Ohio St
MN +9 vs. IOWA
Can I bet these now?!?!?
Sent from my iPhone
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