Well, it's officially time to start speculating. The Golden Nugget in Vegas has posted lines for about 130 of the season's biggest games as of last week. Take a gander at them if you're interested: http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/DailyBlog.html
Here are some of the higlights incase you don't want to check out the link:
GOPHERS +2.5 vs. Becky
GOPHERS +9 at Iowa
Week 1 Big Games
BOISE -5 vs. Oregon
OKST -3 vs. Georgia
ILL -5.5 vs. Mizzou
ALA -4 vs. VT
OK -21 vs. BYU
LSU -14 at WASH
FSU -3 vs Miami
They also list a bunch for the VEGAS weekend of OCT 17th
CAL -3.5 at UCLA
TEX -2.5 vs. OK
USC -8 vs. ND
GT -6 vs. VT
NEB -7 vs. TT
RUT -3 vs. Pitt on the Friday before.
Good stuff guys - okay, now I'm officially getting excited for football season...we have some real numbers to start thinking about. I'm sure these will change, drastcially in some cases, but it's always fun to speculate in July!
Have a good rest of the day - be ready for the PAC-10 preview next week...who do you think I'll put on top for the left coast conference? It's a tricky one...U....S....C...
Later.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
ACC 2009 Preview
The ACC, the country's biggest cluster of a conference, should be wide open again this year with lots of good teams - but probably not any great ones.
I can never remember which is the coastal and which is the other one...so I'll go with my names: The FSU side and the Miami side.
FSU DIVISION
#1 FSU PR - 7.5
Ponder returns at QB, 5 OL are back, only 3 of the front 7 return on D...but there's tons of talent so no worries. I think this club will be about the same as 2008, which should be good enough to win the FSU Division...(9-3).
#2 NCST PR - 7
A surprise #2 for this division, I like the Wolfpack and put them above Clemson based on schedule alone. Wilson returns at QB, All-ACC last year...he's $. 3 OL are back, enough to keep this unit stable. 5 of 7 return on the D...they should continue to improve. O'Brien enters his 3rd year with the program as head coach - I think they put it all together and have a breakout this season. A ton of their toss up games are at home, so I only see a few losses...(8-4).
#3 CLEMSON PR - 7
Dabo enters technically year 2, but it will be his first full year as head man. He has a lot coming back - 5 OL, 5 of front 7 on D...but his QB is Willy Korn, and unproven Sophomore who is hyped up to be solid...but you never know. He did pull a new DC from ALA to take over a talented D...I think they could be even better than the 17 ppg they allowed in 2008. Offense may sputter a little bit, but overall I see a year very similar to last season...(8-4).
#4 BC PR - 6
This looks like a tough one for BC. New coach Spaziani has a lot of the WV Bill Stewart feel to me. A life-time DC, and a great one, but there's a reason he never had the head job before now. He pulled his new OC from the NFL and his DC from within - probably a good call. Then their all-world LB gets diagnised with cancer before we even hit July, your projected starting QB is no longer on the team, you bring back only 3 of your front 7 on a nice defense from last year...what does it all mean, a rare season without a bowl game in BC...(5-7).
#5 WF PR - 6
How did this club go 7-5 in 2008? The outscored opponents 20-18, yep, they only averaged 20 ppg...pathetic. This year that number has to go up with senior Riley Skinner back at QB and 5 OL returning. The defense, that made them a +16 in TO last year, will only return 3 DL's and 0 LB's...ouch. This unit is in for a drop-off, but overall the Deacons will be close every week - just like almost everyone else in this conference! (5-7)
#6 MARYLAND PR - 5.5
So if you're wondering how WF went 7-5, how in the hell did Maryland go 7-5 with a 20-21 ppg average last season! Yes - they were negative in ptdiff, but made it to a bowl game. The offense should remain terrible, senior returning at QB, but only 2 OL make this a poor unit once again. 1 DL and 1 LB return from what was a nice defense in 2008. This group will likely be a little worse, which brings Maryland down to the cellar in the FSU Division...(3-9).
MIAMI DIVISION
#1 VT PR - 7.5
Once again, the cardinal rule in the ACC, never underestimate the Hokies. They were my call as conference champ last year, and I nailed it. So I have to stick with them again. Tyrod Taylor will have the full time QB job this year and 3 OL return. This team won 8 games while averaging only 22 ppg last year, so I'm saying this has to improve in 2009. The defense is ridiculuosly good every year, 17 ppg in 2008 - 4 of the front 7 are back - I'll say they are = to last year. The schedule isn't terrible (ALA and NEB are tough non-conf games, but could kick start a big season for the Hokies). They won't lose more than 1 in ACC play, so I'll say (10-2).
#2 GT PR - 7.5
People, including myself, were very skeptical last year with the Paul Johnson hiring. "Look at me now, look at me now..." I think everyone is on board for 2009. He went 9-3 with a team that had minimal talent and a complete 180 system change on offense...imagine what this guy could do with some of his own players and an upgrade in talent...scary. Nesbitt is back at QB, 4 OL return, 4 of the front 7 are back, year 2 of the Triple option attack....all this means another great year for Tech. The scheulde is not the easiest (at MIA, at FSU) so I'll say they finish just behind VT, who they'll probably beat head to head. (9-3).
#3 MIAMI PR - 7
The Miami Kobows, I mean Hurricanes might finally climbing there way back to respectability. I know 3rd in the division isn't quite what they have in mind, but they are getting back to prominance...slowly. Harris will be the full-time QB, showed flashes of greatness last season. 3 OL return, but the talent is outstanding. 5 of the front 7 are back on D as well. It's only Shannon's 3rd year (doesn't it seem longer?) but he's got new coordinators on each side of the ball again this year. Whipple is the new OC from the Eagles, not sure how this will play out. Lovett is the new DC from the Tar Heels - I like that hire. Overall, the team is getting older, the great recruits are starting to play up to their potential and both units should improve...but not enough to get over the hump of VT and GT. How about this to open the season: at FSU, bye, GT, at VT, OK...nobody has a tougher stretch to open the year. If they can go .500 through that stretch they could win the conference...but I think they might lose them all. New systems on both sides typically struggle early in the year, so to open with your 4 biggest games all in a row is a bad sign for the U. (8-4) is my prediction simply because of the brutal schedule.
#4 NC PR - 6.5
The Heels are another up and comer, but this division is too stacked for them to make a lot of progress this season. Yates is back at QB, only 2 OL return...offense should be about the same. 6 of the front 7 are back on D, which should make the D even stronger than the 20 ppg they allowed last season. The schedule is a little difficult so I'm going with (7-5).
#5 VIRGINIA PR - 6.5
Never, ever, ever underestimate Al Groh. Seriously, I thought this was going to be one of the worst teams ever last season and he pulled them together to go 5-7 while only scoring 16 ppg! Ridiculous. Sewell returns at QB, and 4 OL are back - they have to be better than 16 ppg, right? The D might not be as good this year, 3 of the front 7 are back - they also have new OC and a new DC. Brandon comes from BGSU to run the offense, like I said, it can't be any worse. Trott comes from within to run the defense with Groh. I'll say they score a few more, give up a few more and end a little better than 2008...(6-6).
#6 DUKE PR - 5.5
This team has permanently cemented this #6 position for the Miami Division since the ACC expanded to 12 teams, and I don't really see that changing any time soon. I have to admit, David Cutcliffe did a helluva job in his 1st year here - so maybe there's a glimmer of hope. They went 4-8 and had a lot of near misses, which gave them a PR of 6.5 for last year (same as the Gophers). But that team had a ton of experience, which is now all gone. Lewis does return as the Sr. leader at QB...but that's about it. 2OL, 2DL, 1LB are all the other players that come back...not so good for the Dookies. I think the offense will break the 20 ppg barrier for the first time in a long time, because Cutcliffe is a offensive guru. The D will probably be a trainwreck, and get back to the 30 ppg allowed range that the Devils are used to. I say they drop a bit from last year, but Cutcliffe has this thing moving the right direction...(4-8).
So I'm calling for 8 of the 12 to be bowl eligible - not necessarily any elite teams, but it will be crazy competitve once again just like 2008.
VT vs. FSU in the championship game could be a great one. It all comes down to the QB's in this one, which guy will show up and emerge as a team leader for 2009...I like VT.
That's all I got for today...4 of the Big 6 down, 2 to go. Then we get into the nitty gritty with the always popular non-BCS conferences...fun times.
Before I close, I have to comment on the Jewel Hampton situation and the bizarro world of Hogeye football. So reports circulate that the guy hrt his knee - possibly out for the year, possibly missing a few games, possibly nothing at all. He had an MRI on Monday, and still nobody knows anything or isn't telling anyone. WHY?!? Does Cap. Kirk think something is going to change or letting the cat out of the bag that he is or isn't going to play this year is going to have any kind of advantage for their opponents? The best was the report in the Des Moines paper stating that when they went to Hampton's apartment to ask him he ran up the stairs to answer the door, so he must be okay. Well, for all the doctors in Iowa, if the report is correct that he tore his ACL he should have no problem running up the stairs...but see what happens when he tries to shuffle sideways or move laterally...his leg might fall off. I just think it's so ridiculous that this injury has been confirmed that it happened last week, but it's almost been an entire week and they still don't knwo exactly what's wrong with the guy? God I hate Iowa.
I never am one to hope for injuries, but I am hoping this one is true. That eliminates the only sure thing in their backfield and leaves more pressure on Stanzi. If he would go down early this year, the dillusional B10 title dreams of the Hogeyes will quickly turn to (6-6) or worse. These are the kind of things I hope for in 2009.
As always, let me know what you think - KOBS are the Cane's gonna make it happen this year? JG will the Noles be in the National Title picture? When they meet in week 1 will they combine for more than 20 points?!?!
I can never remember which is the coastal and which is the other one...so I'll go with my names: The FSU side and the Miami side.
FSU DIVISION
#1 FSU PR - 7.5
Ponder returns at QB, 5 OL are back, only 3 of the front 7 return on D...but there's tons of talent so no worries. I think this club will be about the same as 2008, which should be good enough to win the FSU Division...(9-3).
#2 NCST PR - 7
A surprise #2 for this division, I like the Wolfpack and put them above Clemson based on schedule alone. Wilson returns at QB, All-ACC last year...he's $. 3 OL are back, enough to keep this unit stable. 5 of 7 return on the D...they should continue to improve. O'Brien enters his 3rd year with the program as head coach - I think they put it all together and have a breakout this season. A ton of their toss up games are at home, so I only see a few losses...(8-4).
#3 CLEMSON PR - 7
Dabo enters technically year 2, but it will be his first full year as head man. He has a lot coming back - 5 OL, 5 of front 7 on D...but his QB is Willy Korn, and unproven Sophomore who is hyped up to be solid...but you never know. He did pull a new DC from ALA to take over a talented D...I think they could be even better than the 17 ppg they allowed in 2008. Offense may sputter a little bit, but overall I see a year very similar to last season...(8-4).
#4 BC PR - 6
This looks like a tough one for BC. New coach Spaziani has a lot of the WV Bill Stewart feel to me. A life-time DC, and a great one, but there's a reason he never had the head job before now. He pulled his new OC from the NFL and his DC from within - probably a good call. Then their all-world LB gets diagnised with cancer before we even hit July, your projected starting QB is no longer on the team, you bring back only 3 of your front 7 on a nice defense from last year...what does it all mean, a rare season without a bowl game in BC...(5-7).
#5 WF PR - 6
How did this club go 7-5 in 2008? The outscored opponents 20-18, yep, they only averaged 20 ppg...pathetic. This year that number has to go up with senior Riley Skinner back at QB and 5 OL returning. The defense, that made them a +16 in TO last year, will only return 3 DL's and 0 LB's...ouch. This unit is in for a drop-off, but overall the Deacons will be close every week - just like almost everyone else in this conference! (5-7)
#6 MARYLAND PR - 5.5
So if you're wondering how WF went 7-5, how in the hell did Maryland go 7-5 with a 20-21 ppg average last season! Yes - they were negative in ptdiff, but made it to a bowl game. The offense should remain terrible, senior returning at QB, but only 2 OL make this a poor unit once again. 1 DL and 1 LB return from what was a nice defense in 2008. This group will likely be a little worse, which brings Maryland down to the cellar in the FSU Division...(3-9).
MIAMI DIVISION
#1 VT PR - 7.5
Once again, the cardinal rule in the ACC, never underestimate the Hokies. They were my call as conference champ last year, and I nailed it. So I have to stick with them again. Tyrod Taylor will have the full time QB job this year and 3 OL return. This team won 8 games while averaging only 22 ppg last year, so I'm saying this has to improve in 2009. The defense is ridiculuosly good every year, 17 ppg in 2008 - 4 of the front 7 are back - I'll say they are = to last year. The schedule isn't terrible (ALA and NEB are tough non-conf games, but could kick start a big season for the Hokies). They won't lose more than 1 in ACC play, so I'll say (10-2).
#2 GT PR - 7.5
People, including myself, were very skeptical last year with the Paul Johnson hiring. "Look at me now, look at me now..." I think everyone is on board for 2009. He went 9-3 with a team that had minimal talent and a complete 180 system change on offense...imagine what this guy could do with some of his own players and an upgrade in talent...scary. Nesbitt is back at QB, 4 OL return, 4 of the front 7 are back, year 2 of the Triple option attack....all this means another great year for Tech. The scheulde is not the easiest (at MIA, at FSU) so I'll say they finish just behind VT, who they'll probably beat head to head. (9-3).
#3 MIAMI PR - 7
The Miami Kobows, I mean Hurricanes might finally climbing there way back to respectability. I know 3rd in the division isn't quite what they have in mind, but they are getting back to prominance...slowly. Harris will be the full-time QB, showed flashes of greatness last season. 3 OL return, but the talent is outstanding. 5 of the front 7 are back on D as well. It's only Shannon's 3rd year (doesn't it seem longer?) but he's got new coordinators on each side of the ball again this year. Whipple is the new OC from the Eagles, not sure how this will play out. Lovett is the new DC from the Tar Heels - I like that hire. Overall, the team is getting older, the great recruits are starting to play up to their potential and both units should improve...but not enough to get over the hump of VT and GT. How about this to open the season: at FSU, bye, GT, at VT, OK...nobody has a tougher stretch to open the year. If they can go .500 through that stretch they could win the conference...but I think they might lose them all. New systems on both sides typically struggle early in the year, so to open with your 4 biggest games all in a row is a bad sign for the U. (8-4) is my prediction simply because of the brutal schedule.
#4 NC PR - 6.5
The Heels are another up and comer, but this division is too stacked for them to make a lot of progress this season. Yates is back at QB, only 2 OL return...offense should be about the same. 6 of the front 7 are back on D, which should make the D even stronger than the 20 ppg they allowed last season. The schedule is a little difficult so I'm going with (7-5).
#5 VIRGINIA PR - 6.5
Never, ever, ever underestimate Al Groh. Seriously, I thought this was going to be one of the worst teams ever last season and he pulled them together to go 5-7 while only scoring 16 ppg! Ridiculous. Sewell returns at QB, and 4 OL are back - they have to be better than 16 ppg, right? The D might not be as good this year, 3 of the front 7 are back - they also have new OC and a new DC. Brandon comes from BGSU to run the offense, like I said, it can't be any worse. Trott comes from within to run the defense with Groh. I'll say they score a few more, give up a few more and end a little better than 2008...(6-6).
#6 DUKE PR - 5.5
This team has permanently cemented this #6 position for the Miami Division since the ACC expanded to 12 teams, and I don't really see that changing any time soon. I have to admit, David Cutcliffe did a helluva job in his 1st year here - so maybe there's a glimmer of hope. They went 4-8 and had a lot of near misses, which gave them a PR of 6.5 for last year (same as the Gophers). But that team had a ton of experience, which is now all gone. Lewis does return as the Sr. leader at QB...but that's about it. 2OL, 2DL, 1LB are all the other players that come back...not so good for the Dookies. I think the offense will break the 20 ppg barrier for the first time in a long time, because Cutcliffe is a offensive guru. The D will probably be a trainwreck, and get back to the 30 ppg allowed range that the Devils are used to. I say they drop a bit from last year, but Cutcliffe has this thing moving the right direction...(4-8).
So I'm calling for 8 of the 12 to be bowl eligible - not necessarily any elite teams, but it will be crazy competitve once again just like 2008.
VT vs. FSU in the championship game could be a great one. It all comes down to the QB's in this one, which guy will show up and emerge as a team leader for 2009...I like VT.
That's all I got for today...4 of the Big 6 down, 2 to go. Then we get into the nitty gritty with the always popular non-BCS conferences...fun times.
Before I close, I have to comment on the Jewel Hampton situation and the bizarro world of Hogeye football. So reports circulate that the guy hrt his knee - possibly out for the year, possibly missing a few games, possibly nothing at all. He had an MRI on Monday, and still nobody knows anything or isn't telling anyone. WHY?!? Does Cap. Kirk think something is going to change or letting the cat out of the bag that he is or isn't going to play this year is going to have any kind of advantage for their opponents? The best was the report in the Des Moines paper stating that when they went to Hampton's apartment to ask him he ran up the stairs to answer the door, so he must be okay. Well, for all the doctors in Iowa, if the report is correct that he tore his ACL he should have no problem running up the stairs...but see what happens when he tries to shuffle sideways or move laterally...his leg might fall off. I just think it's so ridiculous that this injury has been confirmed that it happened last week, but it's almost been an entire week and they still don't knwo exactly what's wrong with the guy? God I hate Iowa.
I never am one to hope for injuries, but I am hoping this one is true. That eliminates the only sure thing in their backfield and leaves more pressure on Stanzi. If he would go down early this year, the dillusional B10 title dreams of the Hogeyes will quickly turn to (6-6) or worse. These are the kind of things I hope for in 2009.
As always, let me know what you think - KOBS are the Cane's gonna make it happen this year? JG will the Noles be in the National Title picture? When they meet in week 1 will they combine for more than 20 points?!?!
Thursday, July 2, 2009
BIG 12 Preview - 2009
Alright - I'm starting to pick up the pace on these preveiws, 2 in one week!
Let's start with the good half...the south.
#1 TEXAS PR - 10.5
The Horns are loaded for a run in 2009. McCoy is back, 4 OL return, 4 of the front 7 are back on D. They should make a run very similar to last year, and maybe get into the title game in 2009. OK and at OKST are the only challenges all year long...(12-0).
#2 OKLAHOMA PR - 9.5
Last year this offense was ridiculous...54 ppg! I don't think this can happen again. Bradford is back, but only 1 OL returns. The defense allowed 25 ppg in 2008, very poor showing for a typically elite defense. The entire front 7 returns in 2009, so this unit should see better numbers. Overall I'll put the Sooners at (11-1).
#3 OKLAHOMA ST PR - 8.5
The Cowboys surprised a lot of us last year, and should have another nice season on tap for 2009. Robinson is back at QB as a senior, and 3 OL return to a nice group. The D brings back 5 of the front 7, and has elite talent on the DL and LB. A new DC is in town in Young who was with Miami in 2008. Overall, I'll say this team has another season just like last year...it's tough to make a big jump when you have 2 of the top 5 teams in the nation in your half of the conference! They lose the 2 big conference games, and likely drop one to GEO in week 1...(9-3).
#4 TEXAS TECH PR - 6.5
Everything fell right for this crew in 2008, but I don't think a repeat performance is coming in 2009. A new QB, Potts, will be plugged into the crazy pirate's offense this season. Only 2 OL also return, but the offense will continue to score points even though it will be down slightly from 2008. 5 of the front 7 return on D. A nice DL but not an elite LB core will probably keep this defense fairly stable to last year. I have 4 for sure losses on the schedule, with 4 other toss-ups. I'll put this group at (7-5) due to lack of experience.
#5 TEXAS A&M PR - 6.5
Kind of s sleeper here with the Aggies being on the cusp of bowl eligibility after last year's disaster season. Johnson is a legit QB and 5 OL are back to improve the 25 ppg they scored in 2008. The D is sketchy because they only bring back 3 of the front 7 and only 1 DL. But it's Sherman's 2nd season, the system will work a little better than last year, and they shouldn't be a -10 in TO again. I like them to make a bowl game at (7-5).
#6 BAYLOR PR - 6
Someone has to be picked last in this division, and let's face it...Baylor is still a bad team. After a surprisingly good 4-8 in 2008, I think expectations are high for this year. Mainly because Robert Griffin returns as a soph at QB. 3 OL are also back for year 2 of Art Briles wide open attack. 5 of the front 7 are back on a D that kept the ppg under 30 for the first time in quite a while. I think they have a very similar year simply because the scheulde is such a meat-grinder for this team. 4 wins is likely, maybe 5 at the most...(4-8).
Now for the worst division in BCS football...the B12 North.
#1 NEBRASKA PR - 7.5
Bo Pelini is a good coach - I was on his side for the job with my favorite team, but instead he went to one of the teams I really hate. This year he'll be breaking in a new QB, Lee. 3 OL return, and this unit should be strong. Only 3 of the front 7 return, but the DL is elite. Bottom line, the offense takes a step back, but the defense continues to improve and this team wins the North with a cupcake schedule (10-2).
#2 KANSAS PR - 6.5
The Jayhawks took a giant step backward in 2008 after their magical 2007 run. This year should be somewhere in between. Reesing is back as a senior at QB - I really like this guy. Only 2 OL return, which scares me a bit. 3 DL return but none of the LB's are back. I think they continue to play shoot-out football this year and end up right around (8-4).
#3 MIZZOU PR - 6
The Chase Daniel era is over, and this team should fall off a bit. But the division is so bad that they will still finish 3rd! Sophomore Blaine Gabbert takes over as the QB. 3 OL return on offense, this should keep things from collapsing completely. Only 3 of the front 7 return on defense, but the LB core is solid. New OC and a new DC also change things up a bit. Both were promoted from within, so the scheme shift shouldn't be too drastic, but the offense will not score 43 ppg again. I'll say barely a bowl team at (6-6)
#4 COLORADO PR - 5.5
Time to produce for Dan Hawkins...it's year 4 and the honeymoon is over. This club was a -9 ptdiff in 2008 and only managed 20 ppg. Cody, coach's son, Hawkins is back at QB for his Junior year. 4 OL return up front for what appears to be a very strong group. The offense has to be better, so I'll call for them to at least be average. Zero DL are back, and 2 LB return - but the defense should be about the same to slightly down. A new OC also takes over - Kiesau was promoted from within, and it could only help this anemic unit. I'll say that they come up short again at (5-7).
#5 IOWA STATE PR - 5
The Cyclones welcome in another new coach in Paul Rhoads from AUB. Arnaud returns at QB, and 4 OL are back. This team should be able to score points in the defense optional B12. 4 of the front 7 are back on D, this group was terrible last year and will likely be terrible again. Rhoads hired Herman from Rice as his OC, so the wide open system should help light up the scoreboard in Ames, and the new DC is Burnham from USF - he can't do any worse! Overall, another tough transition year for the 'Clones (5-7) - I'll call for a +3 in the win column...let's hope one of those comes in Week 2 vs. the hated in-state rivals!
#6 KANSAS STATE PR - 5
Ron Prince is out and the new guy is the old guy...Bill Snyder is back. The cupboard is less than bare right now for this club. New QB, 3 OL back...but when your QB was Josh Freeman you are sure to be down a notch this season. The defense was awful in 2008...again. 5 of the front 7 return, but I don't think there is a ton of talent there. 2 new CO-DC's are on board to try and right the ship, but I don't think it happens this year. I see a couple of for sure wins, and maybe 1-2 more...(4-8).
There we go. 3 conferences down...a lot to go! In the title game I like TEXAS to beat NEBRASKA by about 3 TD's...basically whoever wins on the always exciting VEGAS WEEK SHOWDOWN in DALLAS should run away with the B12 title and find a spot in the Championship Game.
Have a good long weekend everyone - I'll return with the ACC breakdown next week.
Let's start with the good half...the south.
#1 TEXAS PR - 10.5
The Horns are loaded for a run in 2009. McCoy is back, 4 OL return, 4 of the front 7 are back on D. They should make a run very similar to last year, and maybe get into the title game in 2009. OK and at OKST are the only challenges all year long...(12-0).
#2 OKLAHOMA PR - 9.5
Last year this offense was ridiculous...54 ppg! I don't think this can happen again. Bradford is back, but only 1 OL returns. The defense allowed 25 ppg in 2008, very poor showing for a typically elite defense. The entire front 7 returns in 2009, so this unit should see better numbers. Overall I'll put the Sooners at (11-1).
#3 OKLAHOMA ST PR - 8.5
The Cowboys surprised a lot of us last year, and should have another nice season on tap for 2009. Robinson is back at QB as a senior, and 3 OL return to a nice group. The D brings back 5 of the front 7, and has elite talent on the DL and LB. A new DC is in town in Young who was with Miami in 2008. Overall, I'll say this team has another season just like last year...it's tough to make a big jump when you have 2 of the top 5 teams in the nation in your half of the conference! They lose the 2 big conference games, and likely drop one to GEO in week 1...(9-3).
#4 TEXAS TECH PR - 6.5
Everything fell right for this crew in 2008, but I don't think a repeat performance is coming in 2009. A new QB, Potts, will be plugged into the crazy pirate's offense this season. Only 2 OL also return, but the offense will continue to score points even though it will be down slightly from 2008. 5 of the front 7 return on D. A nice DL but not an elite LB core will probably keep this defense fairly stable to last year. I have 4 for sure losses on the schedule, with 4 other toss-ups. I'll put this group at (7-5) due to lack of experience.
#5 TEXAS A&M PR - 6.5
Kind of s sleeper here with the Aggies being on the cusp of bowl eligibility after last year's disaster season. Johnson is a legit QB and 5 OL are back to improve the 25 ppg they scored in 2008. The D is sketchy because they only bring back 3 of the front 7 and only 1 DL. But it's Sherman's 2nd season, the system will work a little better than last year, and they shouldn't be a -10 in TO again. I like them to make a bowl game at (7-5).
#6 BAYLOR PR - 6
Someone has to be picked last in this division, and let's face it...Baylor is still a bad team. After a surprisingly good 4-8 in 2008, I think expectations are high for this year. Mainly because Robert Griffin returns as a soph at QB. 3 OL are also back for year 2 of Art Briles wide open attack. 5 of the front 7 are back on a D that kept the ppg under 30 for the first time in quite a while. I think they have a very similar year simply because the scheulde is such a meat-grinder for this team. 4 wins is likely, maybe 5 at the most...(4-8).
Now for the worst division in BCS football...the B12 North.
#1 NEBRASKA PR - 7.5
Bo Pelini is a good coach - I was on his side for the job with my favorite team, but instead he went to one of the teams I really hate. This year he'll be breaking in a new QB, Lee. 3 OL return, and this unit should be strong. Only 3 of the front 7 return, but the DL is elite. Bottom line, the offense takes a step back, but the defense continues to improve and this team wins the North with a cupcake schedule (10-2).
#2 KANSAS PR - 6.5
The Jayhawks took a giant step backward in 2008 after their magical 2007 run. This year should be somewhere in between. Reesing is back as a senior at QB - I really like this guy. Only 2 OL return, which scares me a bit. 3 DL return but none of the LB's are back. I think they continue to play shoot-out football this year and end up right around (8-4).
#3 MIZZOU PR - 6
The Chase Daniel era is over, and this team should fall off a bit. But the division is so bad that they will still finish 3rd! Sophomore Blaine Gabbert takes over as the QB. 3 OL return on offense, this should keep things from collapsing completely. Only 3 of the front 7 return on defense, but the LB core is solid. New OC and a new DC also change things up a bit. Both were promoted from within, so the scheme shift shouldn't be too drastic, but the offense will not score 43 ppg again. I'll say barely a bowl team at (6-6)
#4 COLORADO PR - 5.5
Time to produce for Dan Hawkins...it's year 4 and the honeymoon is over. This club was a -9 ptdiff in 2008 and only managed 20 ppg. Cody, coach's son, Hawkins is back at QB for his Junior year. 4 OL return up front for what appears to be a very strong group. The offense has to be better, so I'll call for them to at least be average. Zero DL are back, and 2 LB return - but the defense should be about the same to slightly down. A new OC also takes over - Kiesau was promoted from within, and it could only help this anemic unit. I'll say that they come up short again at (5-7).
#5 IOWA STATE PR - 5
The Cyclones welcome in another new coach in Paul Rhoads from AUB. Arnaud returns at QB, and 4 OL are back. This team should be able to score points in the defense optional B12. 4 of the front 7 are back on D, this group was terrible last year and will likely be terrible again. Rhoads hired Herman from Rice as his OC, so the wide open system should help light up the scoreboard in Ames, and the new DC is Burnham from USF - he can't do any worse! Overall, another tough transition year for the 'Clones (5-7) - I'll call for a +3 in the win column...let's hope one of those comes in Week 2 vs. the hated in-state rivals!
#6 KANSAS STATE PR - 5
Ron Prince is out and the new guy is the old guy...Bill Snyder is back. The cupboard is less than bare right now for this club. New QB, 3 OL back...but when your QB was Josh Freeman you are sure to be down a notch this season. The defense was awful in 2008...again. 5 of the front 7 return, but I don't think there is a ton of talent there. 2 new CO-DC's are on board to try and right the ship, but I don't think it happens this year. I see a couple of for sure wins, and maybe 1-2 more...(4-8).
There we go. 3 conferences down...a lot to go! In the title game I like TEXAS to beat NEBRASKA by about 3 TD's...basically whoever wins on the always exciting VEGAS WEEK SHOWDOWN in DALLAS should run away with the B12 title and find a spot in the Championship Game.
Have a good long weekend everyone - I'll return with the ACC breakdown next week.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
BIG TEN PREVIEW - 3rd attempt!
Hopefully, the 3rd time will be the charm with this thing. I guess the blog was having issues last week, so we'll see what happens.
#1 PENN ST. PR - 8
Still the team to beat in the B10, but they will not be nearly as dominant as 2008. Clark is back at QB, and he's solid. However, only 2 OL return, which could be a very big issue. This moves the offense down from 40 ppg to about 33 in my mind. On defense, they only allowed 12 ppg in 2008. 2 DL and 2 LB return, so the D should not fall off that much, but I think they fall to about 17 ppg, still very good. The schedule is very managable, OSU is in Happy Valley so they get the nod over tOSU. At Sparty and at NW could be pesky...as well as hosting the Gophs on the always dangerous VEGAS WEEK...but overall, my numbers call for an undefeated season. However, I don't expect this to happen, so I'll say (11-1) because they are not elite.
#2 OHIO ST PR - 8
The 2nd coming of Christ is back for year 2 at QB, hopefully he knows how to throw this season. My bet is he will - and the offense will improve. They only averaged a pedestrian 28 ppg last year, so Pryor's improvement along with 3 returning OL move them up a FG to about 31 ppg. On D, they lost a couple of anchors in the LB core. 3 DL return and only 1 LB, but obviously the talent cupboard is not bare. They will be fine, but down a bit to about 17 ppg from the 13 ppg of 2008. The main reason they are the runner-up this year is the schedule...USC and at PSU will be very difficult. I bet they lose both and go (10-2).
#3 IOWA PR - 7.5
This team is going to be solid, and I hate to say that...but there are holes and potentially large indidcators that it will not be all peachy in hick ville this year. Stanzi is back, and he's fine at QB...but there is absolutlely nothing behind him, like not even a T-Mort caliber backup. (Strategy #1 - hurt Stanzi = IOWA LOSS). They return 3 OL, so as long as the QB stays healthy they should be about the same as 2008 on offense at 30 ppg. On D, 5 of the front 7 return. All 3 LB's are back, but they lose both DT's...which could also be an issue. They gave up a ridiculous 13 ppg in 2008 - this will not be repeated. I'll say this moves to about 18 ppg, and puts them just a notch below the elite in the B10. However, the toughest thing for the Hogeyes will be the slate of games. At PSU, at OSU, at MSU...should all be losses, the pesky Cyclone game is also probably due for an upset...so I'll say (8-4).
#4 MICHIGAN ST. - PR - 7
I'm not 100% sold that this team is ready to join the elite in the conference just yet. They really weren't that impressive last year at 26-22 ppg. for a +4 ptdiff. Sparty will be breaking in a new QB, likely sophomore Nichol and only 3 OL return to a very average group. With these 2 indicators, I'll say the offense is = to down a bit. On D only 2 return up front, and 3 LB's come back. Dantonio is a defense guy, so the D will likely continue its improvement. The schedule has a lot of toss-ups on it: at ND, at ILL, IOWA, at MN, NW all could go either way. They also host PSU in the finale. My bet is that they find a way to lose quite a few of these as well as one or two they probably shouldn't...(8-4).
#5 NORTHWESTERN - PR - 7
Pat Fitzgerald can coach, but this club is still too short on talent to be elite. Mike Kafka returns as the starter at QB this year. I still am not sold on this guy - so I'll say he's a downgrade to Bacher. 4 OL return which is good, but the talent level isn't that great. I'll say the offense is down a notch to about 23 ppg. The big change LY was the defense that allowed only 19 ppg. 4 of the front 7 come back, 2 DL and 2 LB. However, I think they still perform well and move to about 21 ppg. I see 4 for sure losses on the schedule, and possibly more if Kafka blows...but I'll say (8-4).
#6 ILLINOIS - PR - 6.5
The Illini are the popular sleeper pick this year in the conference. Let me tell you why I think a lot of people are wrong...they gave up 27 ppg last year, 3rd worst in the B10. Guess who's coming back from that unit? 1 DL and 1 LB...yikes. On offense, Juice returns, as do 3 mediocre OL - but they have a new OC with a different system, which cannot be ignored. I'll say the offense is the same to slightly improved, and the defense might actually be worse. Zook still sucks as a coach, so I'll give Illinois a (7-5) prediction this year.
#7 MINNESOTA - PR - 6.5
Our Maroon and Gold come in a little lower than I initially thought, but it's a tough run this year for the team. The schedule is infinitely tougher than last year, but the team is better. Weber returns with 4 OL - loaded up front for the new scheme the OC Fisch will bring. The offense will improve to at least an average 27 ppg. On D, 5 of the front 7 are back, and another new DC is in place. I'll say this unit drops a bit as well to keep the team on about the same level as last year overall. My numbers call for 5 or 6 losses, I'll go optimistic (shocker) and say (7-5).
#8 MICHIGAN - PR - 6.5
DickRod is back for year 2, who's excited? They should be much improved, but still not back to "Meeeshigan" level. 5 OL return to an outstanding unit, but they will likely be starting a true freshman at QB...even so, they will not score 20 ppg again. I expect an average of 27. On defense, they gave up 29 ppg in 2008. Wow, bad numbers for anyone let alone the mighty Michigan. 4 of the front 7 are back, only 1 DL...but Greg Robinson comes over from the 'Cuse to help out the D. I bet they improve, but they will not be elite. If they get by ND the hype will be there for a 4-0 club...but I have them potentially losing 6 of the final 8. I'll say (7-5).
#9 WISCONSIN - PR - 6
This could be the final nail in the coffin of BB. Probably starting a freshman at QB, 2 OL return...offense might be down a bit. On a bad defense that allowed 25 ppg last season, Becky will only return 2 of the front 7, 1 DL and 1 LB. This unit will likely continue the downward trend that we have all been enjoying throught BB's tenure. I have them at only 1-2 B10 wins, and a barely bowl eligible (6-6) overall. Good times!!
#10 INDIANA - PR - 5.5
Surprise - they aren't in the cellar! This might come as a shock to some, but I like this squad more than #11, their in state neighbor. 4 OL return to a surprisingly good unit. They have Chappell, a Jr. QB with some experience. The D returns 5 of the front 7, and can only improve on the 35 ppg allowed in 2008. I'll sat they beat the Boilers and go (3-9).
#11 PURDUE - PR - 5
Danny Hope takes over a tough situation. A new QB, Elliot, is a senior but has ridden pine his whole career. 4 OL return, but not a lot of talent is there. 2 DL and 2 LB are back, but a brand new system on each side leaves me skeptical. Nord is the new OC from FAU - the Gophs crushed his pathetic offense last year. Hope got his DC, Landholm, from Eastern Kentucky...hmmm. For me, it all comes together to equal a (1-11) campaign from the Boilers.
There you go - thoughts? Am I way off? Any ideas?
Let me know what you think.
Later Guys.
#1 PENN ST. PR - 8
Still the team to beat in the B10, but they will not be nearly as dominant as 2008. Clark is back at QB, and he's solid. However, only 2 OL return, which could be a very big issue. This moves the offense down from 40 ppg to about 33 in my mind. On defense, they only allowed 12 ppg in 2008. 2 DL and 2 LB return, so the D should not fall off that much, but I think they fall to about 17 ppg, still very good. The schedule is very managable, OSU is in Happy Valley so they get the nod over tOSU. At Sparty and at NW could be pesky...as well as hosting the Gophs on the always dangerous VEGAS WEEK...but overall, my numbers call for an undefeated season. However, I don't expect this to happen, so I'll say (11-1) because they are not elite.
#2 OHIO ST PR - 8
The 2nd coming of Christ is back for year 2 at QB, hopefully he knows how to throw this season. My bet is he will - and the offense will improve. They only averaged a pedestrian 28 ppg last year, so Pryor's improvement along with 3 returning OL move them up a FG to about 31 ppg. On D, they lost a couple of anchors in the LB core. 3 DL return and only 1 LB, but obviously the talent cupboard is not bare. They will be fine, but down a bit to about 17 ppg from the 13 ppg of 2008. The main reason they are the runner-up this year is the schedule...USC and at PSU will be very difficult. I bet they lose both and go (10-2).
#3 IOWA PR - 7.5
This team is going to be solid, and I hate to say that...but there are holes and potentially large indidcators that it will not be all peachy in hick ville this year. Stanzi is back, and he's fine at QB...but there is absolutlely nothing behind him, like not even a T-Mort caliber backup. (Strategy #1 - hurt Stanzi = IOWA LOSS). They return 3 OL, so as long as the QB stays healthy they should be about the same as 2008 on offense at 30 ppg. On D, 5 of the front 7 return. All 3 LB's are back, but they lose both DT's...which could also be an issue. They gave up a ridiculous 13 ppg in 2008 - this will not be repeated. I'll say this moves to about 18 ppg, and puts them just a notch below the elite in the B10. However, the toughest thing for the Hogeyes will be the slate of games. At PSU, at OSU, at MSU...should all be losses, the pesky Cyclone game is also probably due for an upset...so I'll say (8-4).
#4 MICHIGAN ST. - PR - 7
I'm not 100% sold that this team is ready to join the elite in the conference just yet. They really weren't that impressive last year at 26-22 ppg. for a +4 ptdiff. Sparty will be breaking in a new QB, likely sophomore Nichol and only 3 OL return to a very average group. With these 2 indicators, I'll say the offense is = to down a bit. On D only 2 return up front, and 3 LB's come back. Dantonio is a defense guy, so the D will likely continue its improvement. The schedule has a lot of toss-ups on it: at ND, at ILL, IOWA, at MN, NW all could go either way. They also host PSU in the finale. My bet is that they find a way to lose quite a few of these as well as one or two they probably shouldn't...(8-4).
#5 NORTHWESTERN - PR - 7
Pat Fitzgerald can coach, but this club is still too short on talent to be elite. Mike Kafka returns as the starter at QB this year. I still am not sold on this guy - so I'll say he's a downgrade to Bacher. 4 OL return which is good, but the talent level isn't that great. I'll say the offense is down a notch to about 23 ppg. The big change LY was the defense that allowed only 19 ppg. 4 of the front 7 come back, 2 DL and 2 LB. However, I think they still perform well and move to about 21 ppg. I see 4 for sure losses on the schedule, and possibly more if Kafka blows...but I'll say (8-4).
#6 ILLINOIS - PR - 6.5
The Illini are the popular sleeper pick this year in the conference. Let me tell you why I think a lot of people are wrong...they gave up 27 ppg last year, 3rd worst in the B10. Guess who's coming back from that unit? 1 DL and 1 LB...yikes. On offense, Juice returns, as do 3 mediocre OL - but they have a new OC with a different system, which cannot be ignored. I'll say the offense is the same to slightly improved, and the defense might actually be worse. Zook still sucks as a coach, so I'll give Illinois a (7-5) prediction this year.
#7 MINNESOTA - PR - 6.5
Our Maroon and Gold come in a little lower than I initially thought, but it's a tough run this year for the team. The schedule is infinitely tougher than last year, but the team is better. Weber returns with 4 OL - loaded up front for the new scheme the OC Fisch will bring. The offense will improve to at least an average 27 ppg. On D, 5 of the front 7 are back, and another new DC is in place. I'll say this unit drops a bit as well to keep the team on about the same level as last year overall. My numbers call for 5 or 6 losses, I'll go optimistic (shocker) and say (7-5).
#8 MICHIGAN - PR - 6.5
DickRod is back for year 2, who's excited? They should be much improved, but still not back to "Meeeshigan" level. 5 OL return to an outstanding unit, but they will likely be starting a true freshman at QB...even so, they will not score 20 ppg again. I expect an average of 27. On defense, they gave up 29 ppg in 2008. Wow, bad numbers for anyone let alone the mighty Michigan. 4 of the front 7 are back, only 1 DL...but Greg Robinson comes over from the 'Cuse to help out the D. I bet they improve, but they will not be elite. If they get by ND the hype will be there for a 4-0 club...but I have them potentially losing 6 of the final 8. I'll say (7-5).
#9 WISCONSIN - PR - 6
This could be the final nail in the coffin of BB. Probably starting a freshman at QB, 2 OL return...offense might be down a bit. On a bad defense that allowed 25 ppg last season, Becky will only return 2 of the front 7, 1 DL and 1 LB. This unit will likely continue the downward trend that we have all been enjoying throught BB's tenure. I have them at only 1-2 B10 wins, and a barely bowl eligible (6-6) overall. Good times!!
#10 INDIANA - PR - 5.5
Surprise - they aren't in the cellar! This might come as a shock to some, but I like this squad more than #11, their in state neighbor. 4 OL return to a surprisingly good unit. They have Chappell, a Jr. QB with some experience. The D returns 5 of the front 7, and can only improve on the 35 ppg allowed in 2008. I'll sat they beat the Boilers and go (3-9).
#11 PURDUE - PR - 5
Danny Hope takes over a tough situation. A new QB, Elliot, is a senior but has ridden pine his whole career. 4 OL return, but not a lot of talent is there. 2 DL and 2 LB are back, but a brand new system on each side leaves me skeptical. Nord is the new OC from FAU - the Gophs crushed his pathetic offense last year. Hope got his DC, Landholm, from Eastern Kentucky...hmmm. For me, it all comes together to equal a (1-11) campaign from the Boilers.
There you go - thoughts? Am I way off? Any ideas?
Let me know what you think.
Later Guys.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
NBA Draft - Cleaning House
Well, the draft hype has officially started as of last night. Woofies send Foye and Miller to WASH for basically the #5 pick. Lots of mixed reviews throughout the network about if this was the right move or not, but it's shaking things up and gives us unlimited options for tomorrow night...so i have to say I'm probably on board.
Foye wasn't bad, and I would have loved him as the instant offense 6th man on a competitor...especially with his level of play in Q4. But to label him as our starting 1 and expect him to handle that job was a joke. He's not a PG...he's a very short off-guard, that's it. I can't say that I like getting rid of him, but if it took this to make the deal then why not (assuming we don't completly F up tomorrow night, which I'm more positive about than I have been at any time the last 10 years).
Miller, we barely knew ya. He was so excited to be "home" for last year that he forgot how to shoot. He didn't have a good year, let's face it. PA brought up the point that he seems to be a guy who puts up numbers on bad teams at bad times...never a big game guy, never on a contender. I am 110% on board with this one - the guy was brought in to shoot the 3, but he couldn't shoot. So from my point of view, if you can parlay that into anything of value, then do it.
Now the biggest question, when you only have 2 actual players (Love, Al) and 4, yes 4! 1st round picks...what do you do?
Options:
1) Stand pat, pick 4 guys - find your new starting backcourt and some wings with a chance
This option seems very unlikely - you're not going to pay guaranteed money to 4 guys in one year...just doesn't happen.
2) Send one of the higher picks and one of the lower picks to move up and grab someone you love.
This seems the most likely. Personally, I would stay a long, long ways away from Mr. Thabeet...looks like a scary bust to me. Rubio, who knows? But it would create some excitement.
3) Send away some of the picks for proven players.
This is probably my preferred option. I know it's a rebuilding year, that's undeniable. However, you can't start a rookie backcourt with Al, Love, and Tree Rollins and expect to be an improving club...even for next year. They NEED to find 1-3 players that are vets and can help some of these young guys along. Hinrich is a nice fit, I havne't heard a lot of other names mentioned, but I think dumping some of the lower picks or some of our expiring players for next year would be a great move and probably a very possible move for some teams looking for $'s for 2010.
Who do you guys like for our picks?
It sounds like they love Tyreke Evans - I like what I've seen from him and would have no problem with this pick. I also think James Harden could be a solid scorer for a long time in the league. Thabeet scares the crap out of me - I can't see him being good. Rubio, might be exciting, I feel like I haven't seen enough to make a good call on this guy - but people really talk him up as a big-time playmaker. Johnny Flynn is a nice PG, I also kind of like Eric Mayor from VCU.
No matter how you slice it, we have 2 guys that will for sure be on this roster next year...Love and Big Al. So we need about 10 guys to fill in somewhere and find a couple of guards for the future, not to mention a true center or 2 to help on defense and some wing players with a pulse. Brewer could still turn out okay - Bassy will be back as a #2 PG, which isn't terrible. But off the top of my head, I really don't think I could come up with another for sure player on next year's team...Gomes maybe?
Anyway - should be a fun night, they only fun one we get each year when you suck like our club does! Hope you guys are watching - I'll be glued to it all night with the kids in the basement, talk to you as we go...I'm sure it will be controversial like it is every year (even without McHale running the show.)
Something to look forward to tomorrow for your reading pleasure...BIG 10 PREVIEW 2009 - hope there aren't a lot of Badger fans out there, cause it doesn't look good!
A couple other notes - start times announced for the pre-season games, SYR 11am ESPN2, CAL 11am ESPN/ESPN2, AF 6pm - knew this one. I love getting CAL in the early morning...9am internal clock for those fellas, could be our best chance of pulling the upset.
Closing it out with PJ -
I had a false belief
I thought I came here to stay
We're all just visiting
All just breaking like waves
The oceans made me, but who came up with love?
Push me, pull me, push me, or pull me out
Push me, pull me, or pull me out
Foye wasn't bad, and I would have loved him as the instant offense 6th man on a competitor...especially with his level of play in Q4. But to label him as our starting 1 and expect him to handle that job was a joke. He's not a PG...he's a very short off-guard, that's it. I can't say that I like getting rid of him, but if it took this to make the deal then why not (assuming we don't completly F up tomorrow night, which I'm more positive about than I have been at any time the last 10 years).
Miller, we barely knew ya. He was so excited to be "home" for last year that he forgot how to shoot. He didn't have a good year, let's face it. PA brought up the point that he seems to be a guy who puts up numbers on bad teams at bad times...never a big game guy, never on a contender. I am 110% on board with this one - the guy was brought in to shoot the 3, but he couldn't shoot. So from my point of view, if you can parlay that into anything of value, then do it.
Now the biggest question, when you only have 2 actual players (Love, Al) and 4, yes 4! 1st round picks...what do you do?
Options:
1) Stand pat, pick 4 guys - find your new starting backcourt and some wings with a chance
This option seems very unlikely - you're not going to pay guaranteed money to 4 guys in one year...just doesn't happen.
2) Send one of the higher picks and one of the lower picks to move up and grab someone you love.
This seems the most likely. Personally, I would stay a long, long ways away from Mr. Thabeet...looks like a scary bust to me. Rubio, who knows? But it would create some excitement.
3) Send away some of the picks for proven players.
This is probably my preferred option. I know it's a rebuilding year, that's undeniable. However, you can't start a rookie backcourt with Al, Love, and Tree Rollins and expect to be an improving club...even for next year. They NEED to find 1-3 players that are vets and can help some of these young guys along. Hinrich is a nice fit, I havne't heard a lot of other names mentioned, but I think dumping some of the lower picks or some of our expiring players for next year would be a great move and probably a very possible move for some teams looking for $'s for 2010.
Who do you guys like for our picks?
It sounds like they love Tyreke Evans - I like what I've seen from him and would have no problem with this pick. I also think James Harden could be a solid scorer for a long time in the league. Thabeet scares the crap out of me - I can't see him being good. Rubio, might be exciting, I feel like I haven't seen enough to make a good call on this guy - but people really talk him up as a big-time playmaker. Johnny Flynn is a nice PG, I also kind of like Eric Mayor from VCU.
No matter how you slice it, we have 2 guys that will for sure be on this roster next year...Love and Big Al. So we need about 10 guys to fill in somewhere and find a couple of guards for the future, not to mention a true center or 2 to help on defense and some wing players with a pulse. Brewer could still turn out okay - Bassy will be back as a #2 PG, which isn't terrible. But off the top of my head, I really don't think I could come up with another for sure player on next year's team...Gomes maybe?
Anyway - should be a fun night, they only fun one we get each year when you suck like our club does! Hope you guys are watching - I'll be glued to it all night with the kids in the basement, talk to you as we go...I'm sure it will be controversial like it is every year (even without McHale running the show.)
Something to look forward to tomorrow for your reading pleasure...BIG 10 PREVIEW 2009 - hope there aren't a lot of Badger fans out there, cause it doesn't look good!
A couple other notes - start times announced for the pre-season games, SYR 11am ESPN2, CAL 11am ESPN/ESPN2, AF 6pm - knew this one. I love getting CAL in the early morning...9am internal clock for those fellas, could be our best chance of pulling the upset.
Closing it out with PJ -
I had a false belief
I thought I came here to stay
We're all just visiting
All just breaking like waves
The oceans made me, but who came up with love?
Push me, pull me, push me, or pull me out
Push me, pull me, or pull me out
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
SEC Preveiw 2009
It's mid-June, which means NCAA Previews galore. Well, no need to spend your $10, I've got everything you need right here. Over the next 11 weeks I will be previewing every D1 team and give you my power rating for them in 2009. We'll start with the best conference in football year in and year out...the hated SEC.
SEC EAST
#1 FLORIDA: 2009 PR 10.5
Why? Well, this is an easy one. Defending Nat'l Champs, returning the 2nd coming of Christ at QB, and bringing back you Top 22 on defense. They were +32 ptdf last year and +22 in TO...unreal. They do have a new OC, and the +22 will not happen again, so the offense will likely not average 45ppg again. But I think 40 is reasonable, every Tebow lead offense has done that. They have no less than 5 AA candidates and Top 5 talent everywhere on the field. Plus on of the best 2 coaches in football - Undefeated with only GEO coming within 2 TD's of them.
#2 GEORGIA: 2009 PR 8
Sleeper team this year - big-time. Only question is QB as Sr. Joe Cox appears to be the guy taking over for Stafford. They were only a +6 in ptdf LY, the lowest in Richt's tenure. The biggest problem was the defense that gave up 26ppg - but this was nearly all due to a couple of huge injuries. Top talent at all positions with the exception of QB, which is an unknown. This team had a PR 7 last year, but I'm calling for a full 1 pt gain for my PR. The defense will return to "A" level and give up less than 20 ppg, and the offense - despite the skill player losses and QB swap, will not miss a beat. 5 returning OL help keep the offense steady and GEO is a clear #2 in the East with 3 losses or less.
#3 TENNESSEE: 2009 PR 6.5
Lane Kiffin takes over for a team that really struggled last year. Even with their struggles, they came in at a PR 6 in 2008. Their average was 17-17 last year for a 0 ptdf. This will not be the case in 2009. Great OL and great D all around will lead this team back to a bowl game. Chaney from Purdue will take over the offense and Lane's daddy will take on the defense. Only 3 of the front 7 return, so the number might fall a bit, bit it will still be respectable (~22). One offense, a great OL and returning QB will lead the way. I think ptdf will come in around 0 or low single digits, but that will be enough to go 8-4 and another bowl game.
#4 SOUTH CAROLINA: 2009 PR 6
SC continues to toil right around .500 for the majority of the Spurrier run. I think they'll stay there this year as well. They were a +2 ptdf in 2008 with a -9 in TO. So those numbers would suggest a possible improvement, but another new QB (can't be any worse) and an average OL (by SEC standards) will keep the offense sputtering. The defense is still top notch and will hold opponents to 20 ppg or less once again. The TO issues will likely still exist with the avg OL and QB, and the schedule does them no favors...I see 6 wins max, but possibly as few as 4.
#5 VANDY: 2009 PR 5.5
The little engine that could got off to a hot start last year before barely becoming bowl eligible. The funny thing with this team is that their numbers really didn't improve much at all yoy, so yes, it was just a fluke and luck. LB is their only standout position and they have an AA candidate at CB...but very offensively challenged. 5 OL return, but a new Sophomore takes over at QB. TO were positive for the first time in 5 years in 2008, not likely to continue to 2009. All of the front 7 also return, so I'm going to say they will be more talented and less lucky and end right about the same place as last year..5 or 6 wins.
#6 UK: 2009 PR 5
A surprising bowl team LY at 6-6, I don't see it happening again. Defense was off the charts LY only allowing 22 ppg, vs. the 30 ppg they had allowed the previous 3 years. Only 3 of the front 7 return, so the defense reverts back to normal in 2009. Offensively, they weren't good LY. 22 ppg doesn't get it done. They return a QB, who is average, and 3 OL. I'll call for it to be the same...which means a downturn for the Cats this year - 4 wins.
SEC WEST
#1 OLE MISS: 2009 PR 8.5
This club looks to be a contender this year - I know MK doesn't think so, but here's why they will win the West. Won 8 last year at 31-18 ppg. They return a nice QB in Snead and 3 OL...so the offense should be stable. Also year 2 of Nutt's system will only help things along. The defense returns 5 of the front 7 and has talented groups everywhere. Plus the schedule is easy, so I'm calling for slight improvements on both sides of the ball and and undefeated regular season...yep, you heard me. This isn't likely, but it's what my ratings are calling for. Find a loss - ALA and LSU are toughest opponents, but both are at home.
#2 ALABAMA: 2009 PR 7.5
A surprise team in 2008, I think they take a minor step back this year. They went 12-0 in the regular season at 31-13 ppg. Offensively, they will take a hit this year. A new QB, McElroy will be a downgrade from JPW. OL only returns 2 starters and is not an elite unit in 2009. This puts the offense from 31 to about 24...I think it falls off that much with ?'s at both major offensive areas. The defense is a different story. 13 ppg should be the number again for 2009 - 6 of the front 7 are back and this might be the best D in the nation. The schedule is weak once again, so I am calling for only 1 or 2 losses and another successful year for the Tide.
#3 LSU: 2009 PR 7
Really rough year in 2008 for the Tigers. 7-5 with a 30-26 ppg rate. Offensively, I think they will be the same or possibly a little better than 2008. Jefferson looks to be the QB, this was a giant problem in 2008. 3 OL return, and this is a very strong unit. 4 of the front 7 are back, but only 1 DL...however, both of these areas should be strengths because this is LSU and defense is king. 26 ppg in 2008 was a shock, and I think they drop back to the usual 20 ppg range of the elite defenses. Why? A new DC...Pelini's co-replacements last year were atrocious, so they brought in Chavis from TEN who is an outstanding DC...this unit will go back to allowing 19-20 ppg in 2009. They could challenge ALA for #2 in the division, but I will call for 4 losses because the schedule is brutal.
#4 ARKANSAS: 2009 PR 6.5
I am not a Petrino fan, but he will figure things out in Wal-Mart country. They played much better at the end of last year, and they have a better team in 2009. A new QB is coming, MICH transfer Ryan Mallet should be perfect for this system. The offense will blow away the 22 ppg they had LY. 3 OL return to an average unit, but they were also -9 TO last year, so I think the offense goes to 28 ppg in 2009. The defense returns the entire front 7 - not elite for talent, but 7 returning starters counts for something. I think they improve to mediocrity at least, which puts them at a +2 and a 1.5 point improvement in my PR #'s. 7-5 and a bowl game is the call for ARK.
#5 AUBURN: 2009 PR 6
Mean Gene Chizik is taking over this storied progrum in 2009. Is this a good thing? I don't see the track record, but I guess AUB did. 5-7 in 2008 with a 17-18 ppg...yuck. Jr. Kodi Burns returns at QB, probably - the offense can not be any worse, so I'll call for a little improvement. 3 OL return, but nothing special. Why should the offense improve...one reason, Gus Malzahn. The former Tulsa OC will make this team score points - the Jimbo Fisher effect of last season where he single-handedly added a TD/gm to FSU's total. Teddy Roof takes over the D, but that is Chizik's specialty as well, so look for that to remain very strong. I say they'll move to a +3 ptdf, but the schedule is tough so I'm expecting another 5-7 campaign and the hot seat for Mean Gene will start in about week 6!
#6 MISSISSIPPI STATE: 2009 PR 5
The cellar dweller once again in the West. New coach Dan Mullen (FLA OC in 2008) will have his hands full. 4-8 in 2008 with a 15-25 ppg is not a nice spot to be in the SEC. Mullen is an offense guy, so 15 ppg should not be the final tally in 2009. But I'm not convinced they can get to 20 ppg in year 1 against these defenses! Lee is a Sr. returning at QB and 3 OL return, but a new system will be implemented and it should be ugly. 3 of the front 7 return on D - DL should be very weak. LB has talent, but with no DL it might not matter. He brought in a pair of old A&M coordinators to run each side of the ball...not sure on those hires. I'll say they stay the same as LY at a 5 PR...which sadly looks like only 3 wins.
There you go - one down, next song. What do you think? FLA-OLE MISS title game? Both undefeated?
The conference as a whole is better this year, but some of the traditional powers will not be back to elite quite yet. Bottom line...GATORS - in a landslide, to win the conference.
Next time...the BIG TEN - will I go homer and love up the Maroon and Gold?
Later.
SEC EAST
#1 FLORIDA: 2009 PR 10.5
Why? Well, this is an easy one. Defending Nat'l Champs, returning the 2nd coming of Christ at QB, and bringing back you Top 22 on defense. They were +32 ptdf last year and +22 in TO...unreal. They do have a new OC, and the +22 will not happen again, so the offense will likely not average 45ppg again. But I think 40 is reasonable, every Tebow lead offense has done that. They have no less than 5 AA candidates and Top 5 talent everywhere on the field. Plus on of the best 2 coaches in football - Undefeated with only GEO coming within 2 TD's of them.
#2 GEORGIA: 2009 PR 8
Sleeper team this year - big-time. Only question is QB as Sr. Joe Cox appears to be the guy taking over for Stafford. They were only a +6 in ptdf LY, the lowest in Richt's tenure. The biggest problem was the defense that gave up 26ppg - but this was nearly all due to a couple of huge injuries. Top talent at all positions with the exception of QB, which is an unknown. This team had a PR 7 last year, but I'm calling for a full 1 pt gain for my PR. The defense will return to "A" level and give up less than 20 ppg, and the offense - despite the skill player losses and QB swap, will not miss a beat. 5 returning OL help keep the offense steady and GEO is a clear #2 in the East with 3 losses or less.
#3 TENNESSEE: 2009 PR 6.5
Lane Kiffin takes over for a team that really struggled last year. Even with their struggles, they came in at a PR 6 in 2008. Their average was 17-17 last year for a 0 ptdf. This will not be the case in 2009. Great OL and great D all around will lead this team back to a bowl game. Chaney from Purdue will take over the offense and Lane's daddy will take on the defense. Only 3 of the front 7 return, so the number might fall a bit, bit it will still be respectable (~22). One offense, a great OL and returning QB will lead the way. I think ptdf will come in around 0 or low single digits, but that will be enough to go 8-4 and another bowl game.
#4 SOUTH CAROLINA: 2009 PR 6
SC continues to toil right around .500 for the majority of the Spurrier run. I think they'll stay there this year as well. They were a +2 ptdf in 2008 with a -9 in TO. So those numbers would suggest a possible improvement, but another new QB (can't be any worse) and an average OL (by SEC standards) will keep the offense sputtering. The defense is still top notch and will hold opponents to 20 ppg or less once again. The TO issues will likely still exist with the avg OL and QB, and the schedule does them no favors...I see 6 wins max, but possibly as few as 4.
#5 VANDY: 2009 PR 5.5
The little engine that could got off to a hot start last year before barely becoming bowl eligible. The funny thing with this team is that their numbers really didn't improve much at all yoy, so yes, it was just a fluke and luck. LB is their only standout position and they have an AA candidate at CB...but very offensively challenged. 5 OL return, but a new Sophomore takes over at QB. TO were positive for the first time in 5 years in 2008, not likely to continue to 2009. All of the front 7 also return, so I'm going to say they will be more talented and less lucky and end right about the same place as last year..5 or 6 wins.
#6 UK: 2009 PR 5
A surprising bowl team LY at 6-6, I don't see it happening again. Defense was off the charts LY only allowing 22 ppg, vs. the 30 ppg they had allowed the previous 3 years. Only 3 of the front 7 return, so the defense reverts back to normal in 2009. Offensively, they weren't good LY. 22 ppg doesn't get it done. They return a QB, who is average, and 3 OL. I'll call for it to be the same...which means a downturn for the Cats this year - 4 wins.
SEC WEST
#1 OLE MISS: 2009 PR 8.5
This club looks to be a contender this year - I know MK doesn't think so, but here's why they will win the West. Won 8 last year at 31-18 ppg. They return a nice QB in Snead and 3 OL...so the offense should be stable. Also year 2 of Nutt's system will only help things along. The defense returns 5 of the front 7 and has talented groups everywhere. Plus the schedule is easy, so I'm calling for slight improvements on both sides of the ball and and undefeated regular season...yep, you heard me. This isn't likely, but it's what my ratings are calling for. Find a loss - ALA and LSU are toughest opponents, but both are at home.
#2 ALABAMA: 2009 PR 7.5
A surprise team in 2008, I think they take a minor step back this year. They went 12-0 in the regular season at 31-13 ppg. Offensively, they will take a hit this year. A new QB, McElroy will be a downgrade from JPW. OL only returns 2 starters and is not an elite unit in 2009. This puts the offense from 31 to about 24...I think it falls off that much with ?'s at both major offensive areas. The defense is a different story. 13 ppg should be the number again for 2009 - 6 of the front 7 are back and this might be the best D in the nation. The schedule is weak once again, so I am calling for only 1 or 2 losses and another successful year for the Tide.
#3 LSU: 2009 PR 7
Really rough year in 2008 for the Tigers. 7-5 with a 30-26 ppg rate. Offensively, I think they will be the same or possibly a little better than 2008. Jefferson looks to be the QB, this was a giant problem in 2008. 3 OL return, and this is a very strong unit. 4 of the front 7 are back, but only 1 DL...however, both of these areas should be strengths because this is LSU and defense is king. 26 ppg in 2008 was a shock, and I think they drop back to the usual 20 ppg range of the elite defenses. Why? A new DC...Pelini's co-replacements last year were atrocious, so they brought in Chavis from TEN who is an outstanding DC...this unit will go back to allowing 19-20 ppg in 2009. They could challenge ALA for #2 in the division, but I will call for 4 losses because the schedule is brutal.
#4 ARKANSAS: 2009 PR 6.5
I am not a Petrino fan, but he will figure things out in Wal-Mart country. They played much better at the end of last year, and they have a better team in 2009. A new QB is coming, MICH transfer Ryan Mallet should be perfect for this system. The offense will blow away the 22 ppg they had LY. 3 OL return to an average unit, but they were also -9 TO last year, so I think the offense goes to 28 ppg in 2009. The defense returns the entire front 7 - not elite for talent, but 7 returning starters counts for something. I think they improve to mediocrity at least, which puts them at a +2 and a 1.5 point improvement in my PR #'s. 7-5 and a bowl game is the call for ARK.
#5 AUBURN: 2009 PR 6
Mean Gene Chizik is taking over this storied progrum in 2009. Is this a good thing? I don't see the track record, but I guess AUB did. 5-7 in 2008 with a 17-18 ppg...yuck. Jr. Kodi Burns returns at QB, probably - the offense can not be any worse, so I'll call for a little improvement. 3 OL return, but nothing special. Why should the offense improve...one reason, Gus Malzahn. The former Tulsa OC will make this team score points - the Jimbo Fisher effect of last season where he single-handedly added a TD/gm to FSU's total. Teddy Roof takes over the D, but that is Chizik's specialty as well, so look for that to remain very strong. I say they'll move to a +3 ptdf, but the schedule is tough so I'm expecting another 5-7 campaign and the hot seat for Mean Gene will start in about week 6!
#6 MISSISSIPPI STATE: 2009 PR 5
The cellar dweller once again in the West. New coach Dan Mullen (FLA OC in 2008) will have his hands full. 4-8 in 2008 with a 15-25 ppg is not a nice spot to be in the SEC. Mullen is an offense guy, so 15 ppg should not be the final tally in 2009. But I'm not convinced they can get to 20 ppg in year 1 against these defenses! Lee is a Sr. returning at QB and 3 OL return, but a new system will be implemented and it should be ugly. 3 of the front 7 return on D - DL should be very weak. LB has talent, but with no DL it might not matter. He brought in a pair of old A&M coordinators to run each side of the ball...not sure on those hires. I'll say they stay the same as LY at a 5 PR...which sadly looks like only 3 wins.
There you go - one down, next song. What do you think? FLA-OLE MISS title game? Both undefeated?
The conference as a whole is better this year, but some of the traditional powers will not be back to elite quite yet. Bottom line...GATORS - in a landslide, to win the conference.
Next time...the BIG TEN - will I go homer and love up the Maroon and Gold?
Later.
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