Hey Guys -
A little late night update from me on today's games and what's coming tomorrow.
RUT-NCST
God damn 1/2 pt! RUT dominates the 2nd half, but tries the FG instead of plunging it in on that final drive!! AHHH!! 4th Bowl Game to be decided by 1 pt. or less against the spread already. I wish NCST would have stuck with QB#2 for a little longer, he was maybe the worst QB I've ever seen...ever.
NW-MIZZOU
This game just started the 2nd half, and it looks to be turning out how I had feared. The NW defense is slowing down MIZZOU and their offense looks surprisingly good tonight. I forgot that Bacher makes a big difference. I'm not conceding yet, but I'm not liking my Tigers by 14 right now.
Nice, they just showed a great did you know...Mike Kafka hold the record for Qb Rushing yards in one game with 217 vs. MIN on 11/1? Really? Must have missed that game. Why is it that every time I watch a game I have to hear a reference to a very painful memory from Minnesota's past (Gophers, Vikes, Wolves, etc).
And a NW TD. Looks like 0-2 for me tonight.
Tomrrow we have 3 more games on tap:
NEV-MARY
JR and MK have NEV, MR and JG have MARY. Did you know the Nevada offense is #5 in the nation? 291 rushing yds/gm...wow. Their run defense is #3 at 74.5 ypg. hmmm. They are 8th in the nation in sacks, and 23 in sacks allowed. This sounds like a good team. Maryland is nothing special, -8 turnover margin is probably their most telling stat. They played well, but shot themselves in the foot too many times. I think the pack play inspired ball in front of maybe 12,000 people on a Tuesday afternoon in Boise. NEVADA WINS 30-21 (but if the Humanitarian Bowl is played but nobody is watching does it really count?)
WMU-RICE
We all like Rice, so far when we all like a team we are 1-1. Rice is a classic all offense no defense team ranking 10th in offense and 114th in defense. They were also +13 in turnovers. WMU throws for over 300 ypg, but they can't run or stop the pass. This could be a crazy one...RICE WINS 55-47.
Finally, the nightcap...
ORE-OKST
I struggled with this game a lot, because these teams are identical. JR and MK ended up picking ORE, while JG and MR took OKST. ORE has a great running game, as does OKST. I think OKST has a slightly better passing attack, but they are the #7 and #8 offenses overall in the country. Both play good run defense and horrible pass defense, too. Turnover margin is also equal at +5 for both. The one glaring difference is that ORE has a pass rush (#6 in nation) and OKST does not (#108). I think the running games cancel each other out, and it comes down to who can throw it better, so I like the ORE pass rush to be the difference maker and ORE winning 42-38.
Should be tons of points on Tuesday - 2 under the radar games, and one really good low tier bowl game.
Enjoy.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Bowl Challenge - Update & NFL PLAYOFF LINES
Hey Guys -
Hope everyone had a great Holiday. I just wanted to send out a quick update on how things are going through all 2 pt games and 1 3 pt game.
MK - 13
JR - 12
MR - 10
JG - 7
That's how we sit with 20 of the possible 100 points being played already. Only 80 left - not time to worry yet.
2 Games today, so here we go:
NCST-RUT
JR and JG like RUT, MR and MK took NCST. I love the way RUT has been playing to close the season. They have averaged 46.2 ppg over the final 5 games of the season, and they won their last 6 after a 1-5 start. NCST has the same kind of story winning their last 4 after starting 2-6. So we've got 2 hot teams on a roll coming into this one at 2pm this afternoon. NCST really doesn't do much well, besides being a +11 in turnovers they rank in the bottom half of the country in all major stats. RUT, after being a run team for so long, ranks 22nd in passing this year and also sports a top 35 defense. I just think this is a game where RUT keeps on trucking and NCST falls off a bit. RUT 34-17.
Game 2 for Monday is NW-MIZZOU
I am the only one pulling for MIZZOU in this one. After examining things a little closer, I hate my pick. Strangely enough, the team with the better ranked defense has covered 67% of the time in the bowl season. NW's defense is far superior to a brutal MIZZOU D (53rd vs. 99th). My problem is with the NW offense, which I witnessed live and in color on a sad saturday in the dome. Absolutley pathetic, and I don't see that changing. MIZZOU struggles in pass defense, as do all B12 teams, but I don't think NW can exploit that weakness. MIZZOU throws for 340/game, and I think they will do enough to surely win, but I'm nervous about the cover. It's a huge up tick for NW vs. their expectations entering the season, while the Alamo Bowl is a major let down for MIZZOU who came in with Nat'l Title hopes. I will go with my guys, but not a lot of confidence on this one...plus when there are multiple games in a day there is always one dog that covers. MIZZOU 31-17 in a nail-biter for us gamblers.
I'll send out more previews as the games come up - 3 for TUESDAY and 5 for WEDNESDAY. 5 on NEW YEAR'S DAY and 3 the day after.
The next few days should separate us, but right now it's still anyone's game.
Now, to the big leagues:
Here are the 4 lines for the WILDCARD GAMES this week - send me your 4 picks sometime this week:
ATL
AZ +1
IND
SD +1
BAL
MIA +3
PHI
MIN +2
4 home dogs - how tempting is that!
I'll shoot out a preview on these as we get closer...also thinking ahead, maybe our best shot to get together would be next weekend if the Vikes are in Carolina on Saturday? Obviously, we've got to win one first, but this might be a good option for us.
We'll stay in touch and make something work.
Later Guys - have a good week.
Hope everyone had a great Holiday. I just wanted to send out a quick update on how things are going through all 2 pt games and 1 3 pt game.
MK - 13
JR - 12
MR - 10
JG - 7
That's how we sit with 20 of the possible 100 points being played already. Only 80 left - not time to worry yet.
2 Games today, so here we go:
NCST-RUT
JR and JG like RUT, MR and MK took NCST. I love the way RUT has been playing to close the season. They have averaged 46.2 ppg over the final 5 games of the season, and they won their last 6 after a 1-5 start. NCST has the same kind of story winning their last 4 after starting 2-6. So we've got 2 hot teams on a roll coming into this one at 2pm this afternoon. NCST really doesn't do much well, besides being a +11 in turnovers they rank in the bottom half of the country in all major stats. RUT, after being a run team for so long, ranks 22nd in passing this year and also sports a top 35 defense. I just think this is a game where RUT keeps on trucking and NCST falls off a bit. RUT 34-17.
Game 2 for Monday is NW-MIZZOU
I am the only one pulling for MIZZOU in this one. After examining things a little closer, I hate my pick. Strangely enough, the team with the better ranked defense has covered 67% of the time in the bowl season. NW's defense is far superior to a brutal MIZZOU D (53rd vs. 99th). My problem is with the NW offense, which I witnessed live and in color on a sad saturday in the dome. Absolutley pathetic, and I don't see that changing. MIZZOU struggles in pass defense, as do all B12 teams, but I don't think NW can exploit that weakness. MIZZOU throws for 340/game, and I think they will do enough to surely win, but I'm nervous about the cover. It's a huge up tick for NW vs. their expectations entering the season, while the Alamo Bowl is a major let down for MIZZOU who came in with Nat'l Title hopes. I will go with my guys, but not a lot of confidence on this one...plus when there are multiple games in a day there is always one dog that covers. MIZZOU 31-17 in a nail-biter for us gamblers.
I'll send out more previews as the games come up - 3 for TUESDAY and 5 for WEDNESDAY. 5 on NEW YEAR'S DAY and 3 the day after.
The next few days should separate us, but right now it's still anyone's game.
Now, to the big leagues:
Here are the 4 lines for the WILDCARD GAMES this week - send me your 4 picks sometime this week:
ATL
AZ +1
IND
SD +1
BAL
MIA +3
PHI
MIN +2
4 home dogs - how tempting is that!
I'll shoot out a preview on these as we get closer...also thinking ahead, maybe our best shot to get together would be next weekend if the Vikes are in Carolina on Saturday? Obviously, we've got to win one first, but this might be a good option for us.
We'll stay in touch and make something work.
Later Guys - have a good week.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Bowl Challenge - Week 2
Here's the preveiw of all the upcoming Bowl Games for the week of X-mas:
TCU-BOISE tuesday night
I took the Frogs at -2, the rest of you all liked Boise. Statitically, it's a wash. Both really good looking teams on both sides of the ball. Boise is a better passing team, TCU is a better rushing team, but both have a nice offense overall. Both teams force a lot of turnovers...but TCU is better at taking care of the ball. Which leads to my pick - I think TCU is a better team. They only lost a nail-biter to Utah, which they honestly should have won (got beat by the always pesky THUR night road rule) and a route to OK. BOISE obviously didn't lose, but seriously who did they beat? Oregon on the road...that's a nice one. Other than that...nobody. So when it's a toss up like this one, I like the better defense and the team that's better in turnover margin...give me the Frogs 23-17.
ND-HAW x-mas eve night
JG likes the Rainbow Warriors, the rest of us took the Irish. HAW comes in playing extremely well winning 3 of their last 4, only losing to CIN in a tight game. HAW throws a lot, doesn't protect well, and turns it over all the time. They run for less than 100 yards per game, which is almost impossible in college. ND doesn't do much right either. They can't run, they throw okay, but the reason I picked them is that their defense is solid. It's a Top 40 National Defense, and I really believe this team will be hungry for a win. Obviously, they have HAW outmanned up front - which is always the case in matchups like this. They don't get a lot of sacks, but HAW's gameplan and ineptitude on the front line might cure that problem. They have also lost 4 of 5 coming in, so I guess this might answer the momentum question for future bowl games...does it matter how you finish going into the bowl? Bottom line, in a pick'em game like this I go with the better defense (and seriously, it's HAW vs. ND?!?!) IRISH show up and get the alumni off Weis' back for the off-season 38-28.
FAU-CMU 12/26
No mysteries here - we all like CMU to win by a TD or better. CMU comes in on a 2 game skid, and FAU has won 5 of 6 since starting 1-5. Once again, will the trend matter? It's basically a home game for CMU, which should help their cause a lot. But FAU should be pumped up to be playing anywhere in DEC. The CMU story is throwing the football and not defending the pass at all. They can run a bit, but their bread and butter is throwing it all over the field - 13th nationally. FAU also throws it well and plays little to no defense. Difference could be pass rush where CMU has one and FAU surely does not. Should be a shootout...CMU at home 47-40.
WV-NC 12/27
Great matchup here - I'm the only one picking the Heels. Seems like I'm on my own a lot so far...hmmm. In Charlotte, like a home game for NC. WV has won their last 3 bowl games with Pat White...but this is a different team. Both teams fizzled a bit at the end of the year going 2-2, so no real mometum advantage there. NC is very impressive in any one area. Offensively they are 95th in the nation, and only 63rd on defense...I thought they would be higher. They did finish a fortunate +6 in turnovers, so they are probably a little overrated. WV can't throw, anyone who has seen them the last 3 years knows that. But they run extremely well. Their defense isn't too shabby finishing in the Top 40. They were a +12 on turnover margin, so they might be even luckier than NC. Bottom line for me on this one was the fact that it's a home game for NC, and Butch and his team have done nothing but surprise me all year. In a pick'em I like the Heels 24-21.
WIS-FSU 12/27
I love it - 4 Badger haters = 4 picks for FSU. Completely emotion free right? Well, I like our chances. If you saw how WIS looked at the end of the year, you probably know why. They are not close to the team they expected to be this year, and FSU is probably a little better than most thought. Big difference for FSU...they can run the ball this year. The defense is great, just like most every year, but the offense is coming around. The speed of the pass rush and the improved running game make this a different FSU team than we're used to seeing. WIS ran it well, shocker, but QB play is a big question. The new guy seems a little better than Evridge...but that doesn't take much. WIS defense isn't horrible, but they haven't exactly been playing their best ball. MN and Cal-Poly both should have beat them and scored 30+. Better dead than red, so I like the Maroon in this one 29-17.
MIA-CAL 12/27
MR and JG like MIA, JR and MK...yep that Mike Kobow pick Cal. Once again, a home game for Cal in a bowl game...kind of shady how this seems to be the case more often than not. Cal has had some big highs and dreadful lows this year, but I feel that they are playing some good ball right now. The running game is lethal, the QB play is questionable, and the defense is pretty solid. They were an astonishing +14 in turnovers this year - Top 10 nationally. They also have a great pass rush. MIA continues to have a non-descript offense year in and year out. They lost their last 2 games, and Bob Marve won't be playing in the game (starting QB). Their defense is also top notch, but turnovers could be the death of them. A -9 was good enough for 101st place in the nation...ouch. Turnovers and home field will play a big role in this defensive battle. I think Cal has more to play for at home and might make this an ugly one...CAL 23-7.
Finally...the much anticipated Independence Bowl
NILL-LT 12/28
I took the dog LT, the rest of you are on N.ILL. This is actually a 3 pt. game, but since it's played on Sunday I thought I'd include it. LaTech runs it well, and stops the run. Which is a good thing when you play a NILL team that ranks 101st in passing offense. NILL wants to run it as well, but they too play good defense. I see lots of running the football and a very, very close game happening under the lights in Shreveport (again a Louisiana school playing basically at home in a bowl). Give me LTECH in a close one 21-20 on a missed 2 pt. conversion to win it!!
That's all for this week - 19 more next week, then 3 games in week 4 of Bowl Season.
Are you ready?!?
TCU-BOISE tuesday night
I took the Frogs at -2, the rest of you all liked Boise. Statitically, it's a wash. Both really good looking teams on both sides of the ball. Boise is a better passing team, TCU is a better rushing team, but both have a nice offense overall. Both teams force a lot of turnovers...but TCU is better at taking care of the ball. Which leads to my pick - I think TCU is a better team. They only lost a nail-biter to Utah, which they honestly should have won (got beat by the always pesky THUR night road rule) and a route to OK. BOISE obviously didn't lose, but seriously who did they beat? Oregon on the road...that's a nice one. Other than that...nobody. So when it's a toss up like this one, I like the better defense and the team that's better in turnover margin...give me the Frogs 23-17.
ND-HAW x-mas eve night
JG likes the Rainbow Warriors, the rest of us took the Irish. HAW comes in playing extremely well winning 3 of their last 4, only losing to CIN in a tight game. HAW throws a lot, doesn't protect well, and turns it over all the time. They run for less than 100 yards per game, which is almost impossible in college. ND doesn't do much right either. They can't run, they throw okay, but the reason I picked them is that their defense is solid. It's a Top 40 National Defense, and I really believe this team will be hungry for a win. Obviously, they have HAW outmanned up front - which is always the case in matchups like this. They don't get a lot of sacks, but HAW's gameplan and ineptitude on the front line might cure that problem. They have also lost 4 of 5 coming in, so I guess this might answer the momentum question for future bowl games...does it matter how you finish going into the bowl? Bottom line, in a pick'em game like this I go with the better defense (and seriously, it's HAW vs. ND?!?!) IRISH show up and get the alumni off Weis' back for the off-season 38-28.
FAU-CMU 12/26
No mysteries here - we all like CMU to win by a TD or better. CMU comes in on a 2 game skid, and FAU has won 5 of 6 since starting 1-5. Once again, will the trend matter? It's basically a home game for CMU, which should help their cause a lot. But FAU should be pumped up to be playing anywhere in DEC. The CMU story is throwing the football and not defending the pass at all. They can run a bit, but their bread and butter is throwing it all over the field - 13th nationally. FAU also throws it well and plays little to no defense. Difference could be pass rush where CMU has one and FAU surely does not. Should be a shootout...CMU at home 47-40.
WV-NC 12/27
Great matchup here - I'm the only one picking the Heels. Seems like I'm on my own a lot so far...hmmm. In Charlotte, like a home game for NC. WV has won their last 3 bowl games with Pat White...but this is a different team. Both teams fizzled a bit at the end of the year going 2-2, so no real mometum advantage there. NC is very impressive in any one area. Offensively they are 95th in the nation, and only 63rd on defense...I thought they would be higher. They did finish a fortunate +6 in turnovers, so they are probably a little overrated. WV can't throw, anyone who has seen them the last 3 years knows that. But they run extremely well. Their defense isn't too shabby finishing in the Top 40. They were a +12 on turnover margin, so they might be even luckier than NC. Bottom line for me on this one was the fact that it's a home game for NC, and Butch and his team have done nothing but surprise me all year. In a pick'em I like the Heels 24-21.
WIS-FSU 12/27
I love it - 4 Badger haters = 4 picks for FSU. Completely emotion free right? Well, I like our chances. If you saw how WIS looked at the end of the year, you probably know why. They are not close to the team they expected to be this year, and FSU is probably a little better than most thought. Big difference for FSU...they can run the ball this year. The defense is great, just like most every year, but the offense is coming around. The speed of the pass rush and the improved running game make this a different FSU team than we're used to seeing. WIS ran it well, shocker, but QB play is a big question. The new guy seems a little better than Evridge...but that doesn't take much. WIS defense isn't horrible, but they haven't exactly been playing their best ball. MN and Cal-Poly both should have beat them and scored 30+. Better dead than red, so I like the Maroon in this one 29-17.
MIA-CAL 12/27
MR and JG like MIA, JR and MK...yep that Mike Kobow pick Cal. Once again, a home game for Cal in a bowl game...kind of shady how this seems to be the case more often than not. Cal has had some big highs and dreadful lows this year, but I feel that they are playing some good ball right now. The running game is lethal, the QB play is questionable, and the defense is pretty solid. They were an astonishing +14 in turnovers this year - Top 10 nationally. They also have a great pass rush. MIA continues to have a non-descript offense year in and year out. They lost their last 2 games, and Bob Marve won't be playing in the game (starting QB). Their defense is also top notch, but turnovers could be the death of them. A -9 was good enough for 101st place in the nation...ouch. Turnovers and home field will play a big role in this defensive battle. I think Cal has more to play for at home and might make this an ugly one...CAL 23-7.
Finally...the much anticipated Independence Bowl
NILL-LT 12/28
I took the dog LT, the rest of you are on N.ILL. This is actually a 3 pt. game, but since it's played on Sunday I thought I'd include it. LaTech runs it well, and stops the run. Which is a good thing when you play a NILL team that ranks 101st in passing offense. NILL wants to run it as well, but they too play good defense. I see lots of running the football and a very, very close game happening under the lights in Shreveport (again a Louisiana school playing basically at home in a bowl). Give me LTECH in a close one 21-20 on a missed 2 pt. conversion to win it!!
That's all for this week - 19 more next week, then 3 games in week 4 of Bowl Season.
Are you ready?!?
Week 17 Results & 1 point Bowl Results
Nice weekend, huh. Well, it was for Mr. Mike Roe at least. He is only 10-4 with one to play, leading us all by at least 6 games this week! Nice work Mike.
Purple - yuck. Should have had that one. Moved the ball at will, but a -4 in the turnover bucket is pretty tough to overcome. On a good note, we might have found a QB! Who turned the light on in this guy's head?!? WTF? All of a sudden we might have some $ to spend on something other than a QB next year. I still think they definitely get in. Not betting on a Bear loss tonight, although Roe has GB, and I'm trusting his picks a lot this week. They could lose at HOU next week, but I also think we'll beat a Giant team that will be sitting a lot of guys on Sunday.
BOWLS
JR and MK each have hit 3 of 5, MR hit 2 of 5, JG has only hit 1 of 5 so far. I'm still going to put my money on JG - Roe is on his way to a 3rd straight Reg. Season title, and JG has won the first 2 BOWL titles...so I won't bet against that trend. My Navy pick was bad...but my Troy loss was weak. They had that game in hand, then all of sudden they looked incredibily scared and SOMISS ran right through them. The K that is terrible hits 3 FG's and they win...unreal. I really like Fedora, the SOMISS coach. Wearing the Gold Jerseys and losing a timeout is my new favorite inspiriational move in College Football. His squad played with fire all night, which is fun to watch. Even after an UGLY injury to by far their best player in the 1st Qtr, they sustained and made a better Troy team play scared. Nice work.
I'll ship out a preview of this week's games either today or tomorrow...have a good Holiday everyone.
One other note - not sure about the week 17 challenge. It appears obvious that Roe will be the winner, and the timelines might be a little tricky this week with people traveling. I'm thinking we cancel week 17 and wait for the playoff challenge instead. Playoffs will be counted in our Bowl Total for one combined post season score. Bowls are worth 100, playoffs will be worth a total of 50...2pts each for Wildcard games, 3 pts each for Divisional games, 5 points each for Conf. Championships, and 20 for the Super Bowl.
Later Fellas - let me know if you have any objections to canceling Week 17 off of our schedule.
Thanks.
Purple - yuck. Should have had that one. Moved the ball at will, but a -4 in the turnover bucket is pretty tough to overcome. On a good note, we might have found a QB! Who turned the light on in this guy's head?!? WTF? All of a sudden we might have some $ to spend on something other than a QB next year. I still think they definitely get in. Not betting on a Bear loss tonight, although Roe has GB, and I'm trusting his picks a lot this week. They could lose at HOU next week, but I also think we'll beat a Giant team that will be sitting a lot of guys on Sunday.
BOWLS
JR and MK each have hit 3 of 5, MR hit 2 of 5, JG has only hit 1 of 5 so far. I'm still going to put my money on JG - Roe is on his way to a 3rd straight Reg. Season title, and JG has won the first 2 BOWL titles...so I won't bet against that trend. My Navy pick was bad...but my Troy loss was weak. They had that game in hand, then all of sudden they looked incredibily scared and SOMISS ran right through them. The K that is terrible hits 3 FG's and they win...unreal. I really like Fedora, the SOMISS coach. Wearing the Gold Jerseys and losing a timeout is my new favorite inspiriational move in College Football. His squad played with fire all night, which is fun to watch. Even after an UGLY injury to by far their best player in the 1st Qtr, they sustained and made a better Troy team play scared. Nice work.
I'll ship out a preview of this week's games either today or tomorrow...have a good Holiday everyone.
One other note - not sure about the week 17 challenge. It appears obvious that Roe will be the winner, and the timelines might be a little tricky this week with people traveling. I'm thinking we cancel week 17 and wait for the playoff challenge instead. Playoffs will be counted in our Bowl Total for one combined post season score. Bowls are worth 100, playoffs will be worth a total of 50...2pts each for Wildcard games, 3 pts each for Divisional games, 5 points each for Conf. Championships, and 20 for the Super Bowl.
Later Fellas - let me know if you have any objections to canceling Week 17 off of our schedule.
Thanks.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Weekend Bowl Game Preview
* I'll send out all the picks to you guys as well, but I'm just previewing this weekend's games today*
So we've got 5 games this weekend for the Bowl Challenge as well - all worth 1 point each, so not going to win you the pool - but you can defintiely get off to a good start.
NAVY-WF
I like Navy - the rest have WF in this one. Navy beat them in the regular season. Navy, like every other year, runs the ball really well. Both teams had up and down seasons, WF really struggled to score points earlier in the year and only averaged 20 ppg on the season. 103rd in D1 offense...not good. Both teams were +16 in turnovers, so both are probably a bit overrated. Navy always plays well in bowl games, and getting 3 points made this an easy one for me.
FRESNO-COLST
I have COLST, the rest have FRESNO. Basically, this one looks really even to me so take the points. CSU throws it a lot, Fresno is more of a runner. CSU overachieved this year right, Fresno defintiely under achieved. Hill may be moving on from Fresno, they have had some serious turnover problems, they've lost 3 of their last 5, and were actually outscored this year overall. I just think this is the classic case of a team that expected big things, lost a couple big early games, and will not play well in this low end bowl.
MEM-USF
USF is basically playing a home game in this one. JG is the only one who took MEM. MEM has a Top 25 offense, and have won 3 of 4 coming in. USF was a major disappointment this year losing 4 of 5 coming in. Turnovers have killed them (-7), but they do play nice D. I think their D (14th in Nation) shuts down the MEM running attack and their core players on offense play well at home. They are a young enough team, that they might still show up even though it isn't where they epxected to be this year.
BYU-AZ
This should be a good one. I am the only one who likes AZ. My power ratings have them as a 10 pt favorite. Both teams have really strong offenses, but AZ's defense is defintely a notch above BYU. AZ pass defense vs. BYU pass offense should tell the story - tie breaker, it's in Vegas...Mormons don't like Vegas.
TROY-SOMISS
MK has SOMISS, all else have TROY. I just think TROY is a better team. Both offense are really strong and fairly balanced. Troy's defense is much better and their lines could make the difference. Troy is Top 5 in Sacks for and Sacks Vs....while SOMISS doesn't get any sacks on D and is 76th in sacks allowed. I think Troy comes out and cruises to an easy win in this one.
Next week I'll look at all the 2 point games.
Happy Bowling!
So we've got 5 games this weekend for the Bowl Challenge as well - all worth 1 point each, so not going to win you the pool - but you can defintiely get off to a good start.
NAVY-WF
I like Navy - the rest have WF in this one. Navy beat them in the regular season. Navy, like every other year, runs the ball really well. Both teams had up and down seasons, WF really struggled to score points earlier in the year and only averaged 20 ppg on the season. 103rd in D1 offense...not good. Both teams were +16 in turnovers, so both are probably a bit overrated. Navy always plays well in bowl games, and getting 3 points made this an easy one for me.
FRESNO-COLST
I have COLST, the rest have FRESNO. Basically, this one looks really even to me so take the points. CSU throws it a lot, Fresno is more of a runner. CSU overachieved this year right, Fresno defintiely under achieved. Hill may be moving on from Fresno, they have had some serious turnover problems, they've lost 3 of their last 5, and were actually outscored this year overall. I just think this is the classic case of a team that expected big things, lost a couple big early games, and will not play well in this low end bowl.
MEM-USF
USF is basically playing a home game in this one. JG is the only one who took MEM. MEM has a Top 25 offense, and have won 3 of 4 coming in. USF was a major disappointment this year losing 4 of 5 coming in. Turnovers have killed them (-7), but they do play nice D. I think their D (14th in Nation) shuts down the MEM running attack and their core players on offense play well at home. They are a young enough team, that they might still show up even though it isn't where they epxected to be this year.
BYU-AZ
This should be a good one. I am the only one who likes AZ. My power ratings have them as a 10 pt favorite. Both teams have really strong offenses, but AZ's defense is defintely a notch above BYU. AZ pass defense vs. BYU pass offense should tell the story - tie breaker, it's in Vegas...Mormons don't like Vegas.
TROY-SOMISS
MK has SOMISS, all else have TROY. I just think TROY is a better team. Both offense are really strong and fairly balanced. Troy's defense is much better and their lines could make the difference. Troy is Top 5 in Sacks for and Sacks Vs....while SOMISS doesn't get any sacks on D and is 76th in sacks allowed. I think Troy comes out and cruises to an easy win in this one.
Next week I'll look at all the 2 point games.
Happy Bowling!
NFL Picks - Week 17
Here we go for Week 17 - still waiting on Roe's picks for the BOWLS...then I'll send those out.
NFL
Tonight - split on IND/JAC - JR/MK like INDY
JR/MR like BAL over DAL - MK/JG like Cowboys
JG likes CLE - rest of us have CIN
JR/JG have NO over DET
I have KC again - rest have MIA
JR/MR like NE - MK/JG like ARI
MR is on his own with STL over SF
We all like PIT over TEN - except JG didn't bet this one
MR likes SD - rest like TB
MR likes BUF - rest like DEN
JR/JG like HOU - MR and MK passed on this one
JG likes NYJ - MK/MR like SEA - JR picks nobody on this one
We all like the VIKES...uh-oh.
MK likes WAS - rest like PHILLY
MR likes NYG - rest like CAR
JR/MK took the BEARS - MR/JG like GB
That's all for this week. Another big one for the Purple. My prediction so far is correct, I still like them to win the last 2. This just in - TJACK is starting again on Sunday. I think it's the right move, let's see what he has. At home we're damn good - let's hope CAR wins this week as well, and we beat the G-Men next week for the #2 seed!!
Purple fever is here...until New Year's Eve at least. I'm thinking I'll send out all the Bowl picks as they come up rather than one rambling 9,000 word preview. Good times.
BTW - feeling a bit better today, not nearly as sore. Until I was listening to Common this afternoon and he started talking about how the Spanish are taking over Bowling Alleys everywhere...i laughed a lot, and it hurt a lot. Damn you Common.
Later Guys.
NFL
Tonight - split on IND/JAC - JR/MK like INDY
JR/MR like BAL over DAL - MK/JG like Cowboys
JG likes CLE - rest of us have CIN
JR/JG have NO over DET
I have KC again - rest have MIA
JR/MR like NE - MK/JG like ARI
MR is on his own with STL over SF
We all like PIT over TEN - except JG didn't bet this one
MR likes SD - rest like TB
MR likes BUF - rest like DEN
JR/JG like HOU - MR and MK passed on this one
JG likes NYJ - MK/MR like SEA - JR picks nobody on this one
We all like the VIKES...uh-oh.
MK likes WAS - rest like PHILLY
MR likes NYG - rest like CAR
JR/MK took the BEARS - MR/JG like GB
That's all for this week. Another big one for the Purple. My prediction so far is correct, I still like them to win the last 2. This just in - TJACK is starting again on Sunday. I think it's the right move, let's see what he has. At home we're damn good - let's hope CAR wins this week as well, and we beat the G-Men next week for the #2 seed!!
Purple fever is here...until New Year's Eve at least. I'm thinking I'll send out all the Bowl picks as they come up rather than one rambling 9,000 word preview. Good times.
BTW - feeling a bit better today, not nearly as sore. Until I was listening to Common this afternoon and he started talking about how the Spanish are taking over Bowling Alleys everywhere...i laughed a lot, and it hurt a lot. Damn you Common.
Later Guys.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Week 17 Games - pick 15 NFL games
Here's the list for this week - please send me your 15 picks on this one and your 34 bowl game picks.
Thanks.
Side note - surgery went well, sore as f*ck right now. Hope to be up and at 'em sometime soon.
IND
JAC 7.5
BAL
DAL -5
CIN
CLE -3
NO
DET 7.5
MIA
KC 4
ARI
NE -9
SF
STL 4.5
PIT
TEN -1
SD
TB -3
BUF
DEN -7
HOU
OAK 7.5
NYJ
SEA 4.5
ATL
MIN -3
PHI
WAS 5.5
CAR
NYG -3
GB
CHI -4.5
Thanks.
Side note - surgery went well, sore as f*ck right now. Hope to be up and at 'em sometime soon.
IND
JAC 7.5
BAL
DAL -5
CIN
CLE -3
NO
DET 7.5
MIA
KC 4
ARI
NE -9
SF
STL 4.5
PIT
TEN -1
SD
TB -3
BUF
DEN -7
HOU
OAK 7.5
NYJ
SEA 4.5
ATL
MIN -3
PHI
WAS 5.5
CAR
NYG -3
GB
CHI -4.5
Monday, December 15, 2008
Some fun stuff
Hey Guys -
I've got 2 hours to burn before a meeting, so I found some fun things to write about.
1) Graduation rates by race for NCAA Football players 59% for black kids, 76% for white kids. Not shocking, actually slightly higher on both accounts than I might have guessed. But the huge diparity between the 2 is coming into question - "experts" are saying that black kids don't get the same kind of education opportunities in HS, which is why they do worse in college. Hmmm.
2) SDST hired Brady Hoke, current or former Ball State coach. This was thought to be a landing spot for our favorite B10 Network commentator (Mase). My gut says they made the right move, although if Mase would have brought them back to 7-5 and a lame ass bowl game SDST might have been satisfied with that.
3) If you're looking for a little comedy today - check Collegefootballtalk.com and watch the YouTube clip of Gene Chizick landing at AUB. There is a guy heckling in the background, and it just hilarious. Apparently, nobody, including me, thinks they made the right move by hiring the former frontman for the Clones. I mean seriously, this guy goes 2-10 at ISU and AUB hires him? He has some major recruiting questions, which I think is the #1 talent to grab in a virtual unknown coach, and obviously he hasn't exactly coached up his ISU club over his 2 year tenure. This looks like a major blunder to me, and I'm guessing he won't last over 2-3 years without being rejected unanimously by the fans and players.
Chuck Barkley is all over this one as well. He think Turner Gill should have been hired, a black guy of course. But I like the call, I think Gill would have at least given some optimism - but with Chizik I think you kind of know what you're getting, and it isn't good. I hate that Barkley always has to play the race card, but Gill should get a bigger better job sometime soon. Scary future for that AUB squad...they better get used to looking up to Saban and ALA for quite a while.
4) Sam McGuffie, who looked so solid earlier in the year for MICH, is leaving DickRod's program and possibly heading for TEX A&M. I liked this guy, and I think this is a big-time loss for DickRod. However, I still like his odds to turn this team into a Bowl Team next year, and even better in the near future.
5) Non-football note with some Vegas relevance...Jamie Moyer, remembered best as the old man trying to pitch against the Dodgers in the playoffs while we were in Vegas, is 46...but he just signed a 2 year extension with PHIL!! Unreal. The guy has a contract until he's 48! I guess there is hope for my comeback after all.
6) Finally, in some breaking news...the former Hangtime star, Reggie Theus, was fired today by the Nets. Shocker. His unreal coaching on the cheese -ball saturday monring kiddy sitcom didn't translate into NBA success.
Okay. I think that's all I was thinking about. Back to work slackers.
I've got 2 hours to burn before a meeting, so I found some fun things to write about.
1) Graduation rates by race for NCAA Football players 59% for black kids, 76% for white kids. Not shocking, actually slightly higher on both accounts than I might have guessed. But the huge diparity between the 2 is coming into question - "experts" are saying that black kids don't get the same kind of education opportunities in HS, which is why they do worse in college. Hmmm.
2) SDST hired Brady Hoke, current or former Ball State coach. This was thought to be a landing spot for our favorite B10 Network commentator (Mase). My gut says they made the right move, although if Mase would have brought them back to 7-5 and a lame ass bowl game SDST might have been satisfied with that.
3) If you're looking for a little comedy today - check Collegefootballtalk.com and watch the YouTube clip of Gene Chizick landing at AUB. There is a guy heckling in the background, and it just hilarious. Apparently, nobody, including me, thinks they made the right move by hiring the former frontman for the Clones. I mean seriously, this guy goes 2-10 at ISU and AUB hires him? He has some major recruiting questions, which I think is the #1 talent to grab in a virtual unknown coach, and obviously he hasn't exactly coached up his ISU club over his 2 year tenure. This looks like a major blunder to me, and I'm guessing he won't last over 2-3 years without being rejected unanimously by the fans and players.
Chuck Barkley is all over this one as well. He think Turner Gill should have been hired, a black guy of course. But I like the call, I think Gill would have at least given some optimism - but with Chizik I think you kind of know what you're getting, and it isn't good. I hate that Barkley always has to play the race card, but Gill should get a bigger better job sometime soon. Scary future for that AUB squad...they better get used to looking up to Saban and ALA for quite a while.
4) Sam McGuffie, who looked so solid earlier in the year for MICH, is leaving DickRod's program and possibly heading for TEX A&M. I liked this guy, and I think this is a big-time loss for DickRod. However, I still like his odds to turn this team into a Bowl Team next year, and even better in the near future.
5) Non-football note with some Vegas relevance...Jamie Moyer, remembered best as the old man trying to pitch against the Dodgers in the playoffs while we were in Vegas, is 46...but he just signed a 2 year extension with PHIL!! Unreal. The guy has a contract until he's 48! I guess there is hope for my comeback after all.
6) Finally, in some breaking news...the former Hangtime star, Reggie Theus, was fired today by the Nets. Shocker. His unreal coaching on the cheese -ball saturday monring kiddy sitcom didn't translate into NBA success.
Okay. I think that's all I was thinking about. Back to work slackers.
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