WK #1 Preview & New Players

FOOTBALL IS BACK! What a great start to the season last night with a ton of close finishes, a Gopher W, and some great moments in gambling. Hope everyone got to enjoy the SC-NC finish where the Heels couldn't punch in a meaningless TD for a cover with 4 shots from the 2 yard line! My favorite game of the night, outside of the Gophs W, was Ole Miss and Vandy. It was back and forth all night, and it looked like it was going to end with Vandy facing 4th and a mile in their own end and their stud WR just puked on himself 3 times. Next thing you know, WR Matthews is back on the field catching a bomb and the 'Dores are still alive. Ole Miss decides to call a corner blitz the next play, and there is a wide open receiver for what seemed like the heartbreaking loser for us Ole Miss backers. However...two plays later, a 75 yard scamper that demonstrated some of that "SEC Speed" put us back in the driver's seat and they held on for a wild W. Utah-UTST played it to the wire for the game, and the betting line - as did USC and HAW. Not to mention the OT thriller where RUT decides to go for 2 and the win rather than playing more against FRES. All in all, probably the best opening night of NCAA Football I can remember.

Gopher Nation looked okay. I was pretty happy with how the D played, even though there is some room for improvement there as well. The offense was a nightmare. No weapons at WR, inability to run the ball against a seemingly bad UNLV D, and getting Mankato Jesus knocked around by running him 20 times. Not ideal...but thanks to a couple SpT TD's and a pick 6 we rolled to our easiest opening week W in recent memory. All in all, a good start to the year - easy W but lots of room to see where we sucked and improve. At least there are a couple more warm up games before the real things start.

On to the weekend - can't wait! But first, I figured I would write up some quick intros on our new players for 2013. We have 10 new players, some I know too well and some I don't at all...but here's what I got. If you're easily offended, I'm sorry. I'm a die-hard Gopher fan and anti-Iowa and Badger guy...you have been warned.

JS - Jake Schmidt - Yanni
Cyclone fanatic, but realist...rare when it comes to fans from the south. Will wager for beers and take anyone (see UNLV last night).

DK - Dave Kinzer
Was pressured into entering this contest rather than having me send him a check for his golf winnings - sorry Dave. Guessing you are a Badger fan, but this hasn't been confirmed. Probably a green and gold guy as well.

RH - Ron Hillmer
When he's awake, he's a good dude...but those opportunities to see him in an alert state are rare. Played a human coat rack role at bachelor parties.

PP - Pete Pearson - Hulkamania
Fellow Gopher fan and ticket holder. Pearl Jam fanatic. Threatened to fight my Dad at midfield last night during the game. Weird fear of trunks and 1800 tequila.

TB - Tony Benson
Really good at math, kung-fu, and painting nails. Nicest guy in the world, but he hangs out with a bunch of asses that treat him like dirt. Owns Vegas.

MD - Mike Dass
Father-in-law to the legendary Spartan Mike Thomas. Rochester resident - lived in Stewartville for a time - probably has heard of LeRoy-Ostrander (my high school).

CC - Chris Cervenka
Married into the New Ulm cult, Badger, convicted felon from his last Vegas trip for a football game. Loves wearing dead animals on his head and drinking bear in 5 degree weather.

CM - Charlie Murray
Former co-worker, fantasy football guru, treasure hunter? (medallionhunter@yahoo.com)

TT - Travis Thole
Another Badger, bud of Cervenka, talked me into participating in Jump Around at the Cervenka wedding, creator of the best March Madness pool ever (1st Round pool).

LK - Lucas Keune
JG brother in law - bit of an Iowa fan, actually may not own anything without a Hawkeye on it.

That's the quick and dirty on the list of new guys...get to know 'em, and welcome them aboard!

Here are the most popular picks of the week:

1. FSU
2. ALA
3. LSU
4. USC
5. GEO

GAMES OF THE WEEK

GEO - CLEM (+2)
Scoreboard could blow up during this one - 2 BIG-TIME offenses, and not a lot of resista,nce, in my opinion. I always lean SEC in these early season clashes, and this one is no different. If a D is going to show up, it will be GEO. I like the Dawgs 47-41.

ALA - VT (+18.5)
I really wanted to take VT in this one, but it's just too hard to bet against Bama. They always say, don't take the dog unless you think they have a chance to win the game...and the Hokies don't. Bama is a machine, and the Hokies will play D but can't keep up on offense. I'll call for Bama to lay off the gas and get a Hokie cover...24-7.

LSU - TCU (+4)
Another big conference battle for the SEC and the B12. Once again, I think you have to lean SEC. LSU seems like a sneaky under the radar team this year that has a chance to be crazy good once again. I really like TCU, but I just can't see LSU losing this one. Low scoring game - LSU wins 13-10 and doesn't cover.

Here are a couple upset alerts that I like this week:

CAL +5.5 hosting NW - the Wildcats are overrated and I think CAL, even with a new coach and true FR QB might knock them off Saturday night.

NILL +3 at Iowa - I know a 3 pt dog isn't much of an upset special, but I really don't think much of Iowa once again this season and I think NILL will be able to handle them even on the road.

TOL +24 at FLA - Gators come in reeling a bit and TOL is a nice looking MACtion club. I think this is a cover for sure, but I think the Rockets might even have a chance at a W.

I will send out a standings recap after Saturday. Good Luck to you all!

2013 Football Challenge Invititation

The wait is over, Football season is finally here and more importantly, the Football Challenge is firing up for it's 6th season. We have grown every year since inception, from our humble beginnings with 4 idiots who had no idea what they were doing, to last year's 26 strong and winner who hit 59%!! This season, it appears as if we will be growing once again to at least around 30 members (assuming everyone from last season is back). Depending on how many we do end up with, I have considered changing the weekly prizes from $50 to $100 and making it even more exciting from week to week. I'll let you know how that works out once we have a final tally for players this year.

Anyway, for those of you who may be new to the Football Challenge, or for those of you who have just forgotten over the long and painful off-season, here's the rundown of what we will be doing:

RULES

• It is a point spread league where we pick 15 games per week against the spread in NCAA and NFL.
• You will pick 5 NCAA, 5 NFL, and 5 other games from either league each week.
• 2 pts for a win, 1 pt for a tie
• Weekly winner is determined by who scores the most points that week.
• $$$ is given out for weekly winners, regular season winners, and post-season winners
• $100 to enter - accounts for 18 weeks of regular season and Bowl/NFL Playoff Challenge
• Spreads are sent on Tuesday morning (email) and are taken from current lines (BOOKMAKER)
• Picks are due back to me by Thursday at noon, and I will send a recap that contains all of the picks of all the players.

TIEBREAK

• submit MNF pick ATS
• 2 guys tie = split, more than 2 = carry-over

Got it? It's pretty simple. The entire league is email based (or text based for those that choose that method). I will provide large weekly previews and a summary each week of what happened.

So now the important part - how do I enter?

Here is a list of the guys that have a running balance with me from last season or golf or other wagering ventures:

GT - 35.00

GR - 100.00

Bomb - 60.00

Cole - 100.00

Luke W. - 75.00

Steve - 50.00

Stone - 10.00

Mark O. - 50.00

Dan S. - 30.00

JG - 100.00

Please send me the balance of what you owe ($100 to enter for the season). For those of you that are new or have no balance - please send me the money via check/paypal/or pay me cash if you see me sometime.

ENTRY FEES ARE DUE IN FULL BEFORE THE SEASON STARTS. I NEED TO HAVE ALL MONEY BY AUGUST 25TH!   Please don't wait until the last minute - do it ASAP while you are thinking about it. I have an elite group of thugs that will hunt you down if needed. Also - please let me know if you don't plan on playing this year...I'm not sure why you would choose this, but give me a head's up if that is the case.

Time to start getting excited! Please let me know if you have any questions. One last thing, I track all the weekly summaries, previews, etc on a blog which is linked to in this email. Check it out if you'd like. It should give you a good feel for how this thing rolls, and is a resource in case you lose an email from me. Please forward me any other guys who you think may be interested - always looking to get more in the pool and make this a second full time gig!!

Thanks.

TREE

Week 12 Preview

Here's a shot of the bowl game eligibility clinching TD run from Kirkwood last weekend at the Zook-less Zookers. It's great for the club to be 6-4, but 8-4 would be even more fun!! Well, I don't think it's going to happen...but it is a JG RV road trip game this weekend, and that usually means a win for the good guys...so never say never.

PREDICTIONS

Gophers roll into Lincoln and get eaten alive. I'm guessing we won't be able to move the ball at all against a good D playing at home. Hell, we can barely move it against bad defenses at TCF. NEB will likely have no problems running the ball on us, since most have torched us with the run all year long. The only glimmer of hope we have is JG's RV trip road record of 2-0 going for us, and the fact that NEB has yet to lay their annual egg playing an inferior opponent in Lincoln...this is their last chance with a trip up to Piggyland next Friday in what will be the grand finale for your 2012 Hogeyes. Anyway, not really expecting much this weekend, and predicting NEB 37-10.

Hogeye nation has to be pumped. I overheard 2 yahoo supporters talking about their excitement for rasslin' and hoops this year. Personally, I think Iowa hockey will be tough as well. I did see a few fun stats the last couple of week on America's team. Going into the PUR game the Iowa team had not thrown for 5 TD's all season...while their northern neighbors had 3 individual QB's with at least 5 TD passes at that point. Also, if the Cap'n gets canned after this embarassment of a season, his buyout alone will still put him in the Top 10 of all college coaching salaries next season!! Ha. His buyout makes Mason's look like the coins you find in your couch. Anyway, the bowl dream will officially die for Hogeye nation this week as they lose by 20 at MICH. I can't wait to watch this game, should be very non-competitive and one sided. Fun. MICH 34-14.

Buckeyes at 3rd place WIS. So as a 3rd place team with 2 probation schools in your division, I think WIS is ok. Not near the level of last year, but decent. They housed IU...wow. I'm not quite sure how they are favored at home against a 10-0 Buckeye nation that has nothing on their agenda but going 12-0 and rolling into next season. WIS is tougher at home, so they'll hang for a while in this one, but Urban off a bye with motivation to establish Leader division dominance for the next decade will be enough to house the Beckys. OHIOST wins 41-21.

I kind of like DUKE this week as a +13 at GT. Love GT as a dog, but hate them as a favorite.

KST-BAY has the potential to be a trap game and a shootout, but I don't think it will happen. Give me KST until they prove me wrong. I think they win by 30.

Clones need a win at KAN to be bowl eligible. I'm not sure they can handle WV next week, so I think Paul "I'm so damn proud of everything" Rhoads will have them motivated enough to clean up on ol' front-butt and his pathetic Jayhawks.

STAN will cover the number against ORE. I don't think there is any way they win the game, but they are fundamentally strong enough to keep it interesting for a while. I'll still take ORE to win by 2 scores, but I think it will be a bit of a trap with the Civil War on deck for the Ducks. ORE 48-36.

WF-ND, the other "big game" of the top 3 in the BCS should not be close...as the spread indicates. ND could overlook WF with the big USC game on deck, but even playing with 6 guys on defense and their 8th string QB I think they win this one. In typical ND fashion, it won't be impressive, but they will win...27-10.

NFL

After 3 great years in NFL picks I'm pretty awful this season. Sub 50% at this point...not sure why, but I'm just not with it this year. So my picks for the week are odd...I like nearly all favorites to win, but nearly all dogs to cover. That should turn out well. I'll give you some possible sneaky ones that most of you don't agree with:
CLE may beat DAL, love the cover, but they could win outright.
CAR could beat TB, too much TB love right now and CAR's numbers besides W-L look solid.
OAK could beat NO, everyone loves NO once again, but their D is still the worst in the league.
DET will give GB a very close game. The whole world likes GB off a bye, but I think a desperate DET team shows up to play on Sunday.
KC has a shot at a win. Not a good shot, but it wouldn't totally surprise me if they beat a CIN team off a huge win over NYG last week.

There you go. 5 doggies that nobody is giving a chance. I'm thinking maybe half will come through.

Good Luck! Enjoy these final couple of week of the NCAA regular season. Thankfully, it's not the end for most of us...sorry Herky.

Week 10 Weekend Preview

After a couple of weeks off and a couple of different illnesses...I'm back in preview mode.

Phil Nelson is going to have to channel his inner-Foggie if the squad is going to beat MICH tomorrow in Big Blue's first ever trip to the Bank. After the big win last week, I think the season's outlook has changed quite a bit for average fan guy. Interest is kind of back, and another positive performance this week would really turn some heads. Do they have a chance? Sure. MICH is not a great team this year and the Gophs D has had moments of brilliance this season. Offensively it looks like MN has some signs of life for the first time in about a month, so I won't say it's out of the question. However, what is likely to happen is a thrashing of our run defense, a lockdown on the young QB, and an unfortunate snoozer at the Bank on Saturday. That's what I'm expecting with a small hope of being pleasantly surprised. MICH WINS 34-10.

A nice 8-0 start in NCAA games last night by the group - that's impressive. I'm hoping the good vibes continue tonight with CAL (2 of us on CAL...including me...and 1 on WASH).

I'm not going to devote 2 hours to this and preview the top 10 games this week in depth, but instead we'll give a quick view of lots of games with a quick thought or 2:

VAN -7.5 AT UK: Vandy is for real and UK is ready for basketball...I think it's ugly.
OK -11 at ISU: Boomer Sooner has to put the smack down on the Clones this week, right? I'll give ISU credit, they've played really well this year but I have to think OK is looking for a good performance after the sad effort last week.
TULSA +7 at ARK: Maybe a team ARK can beat? I'm not so sure. I think Tulsa could win this one straight up, but it's a stay away for me.
KAN at BAY -17: I think BAY houses this one by about 40+. Chuck's schematic advantage will not be viable this week.
TEX-TT -6.5: Loving the Raiders this week...I think they are actually straight up a better team than Texas. Wow...fire Mack Brown now Texas.
OLE-GEO -14: Georgia off a huge win as a big favorite against a nice looking Ole Miss team...I'll take points and the Rebs.
NEB at MSU +1.5: I love the Sparty in this one. I think NEB is a terrible road team, and Maxwell might finally be finding a groove with the Sparty offense. Give me MSU by a TD.
PSU at PUR +3.5: I'm back on the Lions again this week. PUR...looks like they'll be changing the guard after the season so I'm not sure there's much motivation left in the tank.
IOWA at IND -1.5: Wow. Iowa is a dog at the mighty Hoosiers, who funny enough can control their own destiny and still represent the Leaders in the B1G Title Game!! How amazing would that be!! I think they play a bad Iowa team very close and win a close one...GO IU!!
HAW at FRES -33.5: They could not make this line high enough for me not to take FRESNO. HAW in back to back mainland road games...not an easy task for the 'Bows. I'll say Bulldogs by 50-60.
ORE at USC +7.5: I think I'm in the minority (11-1 ORE) but I'm on the Trojans this weekend. 7.5 is too much in my opinion. I think they keep it very close and it's a FG game. ORE 34-31.
ALA at LSU +9.5: Everything in this one says LSU to me except for my actual numbers which say ALA -13. So I'm going with Saban even though it's Death Valley at night and the Hatter off a BYE...should be fun to watch, but ALA will win and cover I think.

Comedy?
- MARY is starting a converted LB at QB this week...not even on the depth chart coming into the year. They have lost 3 or 4 QB's for the season. GT is a safe bet at -7.5 on the road.
- SOMISS is 0-8...and a 3 point favorite this week! Wow. UAB is 1-7, but how can a win-less team at this point in the season be favored?!?
- USF was 2-0...now Skipper has them at 2-6. Yet they are -8.5 this week at home against UCONN?!? I know UCONN runs a stone age offense and looks terrible...but -8.5!?!?
- NILL has been a cover machine, UMASS has been god awful. My number came up at NILL -63!. The spread is -35...I like it.

NFL
I had a misread on KC last night. Their turnovers are just unbearable. Never take a team, no matter how many points you can get, that sits at an average -3 turnover margin every game. Unreal.

UPSETS
CIN beats DEN and TEN beats CHI. I also LOVE LOVE LOVE Philly to beat NO on MNF.

There are going to be some crazy close games this weekend in my opinion. I have about 7-8 of the games coming down to a FG margin. I'll take MIA, JAC, CLE, TEN, CAR, TB, MIN, DAL in close ones ATS.

I like the Purple to cover, but I give them a 5% chance at winning the game. SEA at home is a very tough spot. SEA wins 21-20.

NYG will house PIT, I don't think it will be close. Now with the news that PIT will fly in on Sunday morning I think it could be even uglier...20 point win.

I took HOU -10 this week and this they win easily by 2+TD's, however, GB will not cover the 11 this week.

Another good looking weekend of football - lots of things could be figured out in the BCS race this weekend. I will likely be sending updates Saturday night with the fam out of town.

Good Luck!!

 

Week 7 Preview

Chippy the Attack Gopher is ready for a rumble this weekend as the Cats of jNU (just Northwestern) comes to town. We are already off to an exciting start to the week with the TEN win (only 2 of us had and 17! on PIT last night). Tony Weber and I are clearly the only believers in the mighty Titans...for this week at least.

CONSENSUS:
Back to reality with a 6-9 week again. We are well below .500 for the year, which just continues to prove the point that if everyone likes one side in a game you should run away and pick the other side. Here's our card for this week:

PIT(L),MIN, CIN, NE, DEN, WIS, BAL, SF, STAN, FLA, OHIOST, ATL, TB, MSU, DET

Gophers and NW both have 7 backers this week - tied with the Lions for 15th most popular.

NCAA
Last week I didn't go 7-3 like I did the previous 4 weeks...I went 8-2. Seriously, this is a crazy run that I really want to last for 2 more weekend (VEGAS next weekend). Let's see what happens.

IOWA-MSU
Gentlemen, you are witnessing history for the FC this week, as for the 1st time in my life I am picking the Hawkeyes this week. I'm having a hard time with it myself, but it looks like one of the best 3-4 picks on the board in the NCAA game this week. Iowa actually has a more potent offense than Sparty and is playing with a lot of good angles this week. ioWAA is off a bye and in a revenge spot after the Sparty beatdown in Kinnick last year. Sparty coming off an ugly win at IU and they have already lost 2 home games after losing zero total the last 2 years. I feel terrible about this, but I think ioWAAAA wins this thing by a FG 23-20.

 

TEX-OK

Texas state fair weekend summed up into one little photo. This one is always a big game, no matter how bad the 2 teams are. This year, like usual, they are both pretty good. OK is coming off a big win at TT, while TEX is licking their wounds after the shootout L to WV and Holgo. It's really the 3rd big game in a row for TEX, which is never an easy thing. For that reason alone, I think I'll take the Sooners in this one, but close. OK wins 31-28.

 NW-MN

No matter how much I regret the Brew years, there are some memorable nuggets that will exist out there forever. The best part is that before we played NW in one of his final games, Fitz claimed that MN was "extremely well coached" and then the guy is fired like a week later. Fitz is actually a good coach, but one thing his crew has struggled with the last few years is the hangover effect after that 1st loss. The last 3 years, after that first tough loss for NW, they have been unable to rebound the next week and have lost all of those as well. Hmmm.... NW is also a terrible team in OCT when the real games start. 0-4 last OCT is a pretty good indication of that. And this year's club is very similar to that team, actually all Fitz NW teams have been similar. I respect the hell out of them, but when you look at the results they are extremely average. Neither the offense or the defense jump off the page at you. They don't blow anyone out, and they don't get blown out. NW comes in off that hangover loss to PSU for a 2nd straight road game, while the Maroon and Gold are coming off a bad L to ioWAAA and a bye week to figure it out. Both of those are great indicators that we will see a much better performance on Saturday from Kill and company. The Gopher D, as poorly as they played in the first half at ioWAAA, is improved and will be able to do some good things against the Cats. It's also homecoming, Gray sounds like he'll play a bit, and the Gophs are getting points. Lots of good things in our favor here...so I'm going Gophers 28-17.

WIS-PUR

It's insane, but this is basically the battle for the Leaders division crown this season. How very Big 10 of us to have 2 mediocre teams deciding the fate of the division in an early OCT snoozer like this...thanks a lot Bin Laden (and OHIOST and PSU). Remember when WIS was scoring about 50-60 per game last year? I think PUR does. WIS, after losing on back to back hail mary throws last year, kept the heavy foot of Bert Bielema on the gas throughout a beat down of PUR 62-17. I'm not a PUR hype believer or a Danny Hope fan, but I honestly think that beatdown last year will play a part in PUR's motivation for this one. Also the fact that MICH came into their house last week and pretty much gave them a similar whooping...if PUR can't get motivated for this game then they can't get motivated at all. I'll Boiler Up...PUR 24-13.

KST-ISU

Steele Jantz was benched again last week, and the Clones beat TCU. He was benched last year, and the Clones beat OKST. Seeing a theme here? Steele has found a permanent home on the bench, which might give the Clones hope. KST by 7 feels a little heavy considering every game these 2 have played the last few years has been close. Clones cover...Wildcats win 35-33.

NC-MIAMI

No good pictures available for this matchup, and really...it's the ACC and nobody really cares anyway. Home team has won 10 of 12 in this series, which made me go with my original opinion of taking the Canes here by a FG 38-35.

WV-TT

The Mountaineers are the most exciting team in Amercia, I don't think there's any doubt there (average total of 87!! in their games this year). However, coming off a giant win in TEXAS last weekend, they now go to Lubbock. Not real intimidating, right? Well, I think WV could get caught in a sandwich situation letdown here with KST on deck, so I'm liking the Red Raiders to shock the world and win this one...49-44 TT.

STAN-ND

Beano Cook, #1 ND fan of all-time, died this week. I think I kind of missed him when he was relevant, but all I remeber of this guy growing up was him talking about ND and how they should go 10-1 every year. I'm not sure if he was great, but he'll be missed for the Sid like comedy he provided in his later years. So the Irish this week try to continue their great start with a big one against a STAN team that most are still trying to figure out. The number of 8 is pretty good in this one, as I think ND will play well and hold down a mediocre STAN offense. I'm not sure that ND will score many points either, however. I think it ends close to the number, but I'll take STAN to be within a TD...ND wins 21-14.

FLA-VAN

It's just so easy to make fun of the South. I'm thinking they are all still riding blow-up dolphins in the street while sipping on a little bourbon after the big win over LSU last week. Now the Gators have a final tune up before the big VEGAS Weekend game with SC next week. G-Reg's VANDY squad hit a high point last week by beating lowly MIZZOU (enjoying the SEC guys?) and now welcome in the mighty Gators in what looks like a potential trap game. However, I think the Gators have it rolling well enough to not screw up the big meeting with the 'Cocks next weekend. Gators roll...34-7.

SC-LSU

Danger, danger, danger! All of the love that SC has gained from the beatdown they gave GEO last week will likely be gone after their trip to Death Valley. Les has lost 2 games in a row 1 time, and that was with his worst LSU team he ever had. Even worse for the Ball Coach, this game is in Death Valley at night...almost a hopeless situation for SC. SC is absolutely the better team, but as we've seen, that is not always the deciding factor. The QB for LSU will make some plays, the defense will be nuts, and LSU will pull out some voodoo Death Valley magic on Saturday night. Tigers win and spoil game of the year part I (SC-FLA) for next week...LSU 19-14...you know it will be a weird number like that with 3 FG's a safety and a TD with a 2 pointer! LSU football!!

NFL

I had some issues with my NFL picks from last week and finished only 7-7, disappointing after the 12-2 run in Week 5. But life goes on, and I'm already 1-0 for this week so things are looking up.

So I've got a system for picking NFL games, and it's been pretty damn reliable the last few years. I gathered up the numbers for this week and my first game said TEN -2 over PIT. I didn't believe it, but look what happens when you don't follow your own logic. At least I had TEN with the points, but I went away from them in the pick'em assuming it wouldn't work out. Anyway, on to the next.

IND-NYJ: Loving the JETS here to win by a TD.

STL-MIA: Miami crushes. I like both these teams, but STL off a big division win will not be up for this one. Miami wins by 9.

OAK-ATL: Falcons are my suicide pick this week, although I like the Raiders to cover. ATL by 6.

DAL-BAL: Another one that made me scratch my head, but I'll go with it. I have DAL winning by 1 on the road against a BAL team that has been anything but impressive recently.

CIN-CLE: I'm torn on this one, but I'll give CLE the edge after they lost in Week 2 to CIN. CLE +2.

DET-PHI: The Eagles might be the worst best team out there. Lions had to figure some things out after 2 bad L's and a bye, so they come back ready to play and beat PHI by a FG.

KC-TB: Brady Quinn on the road with a bye next week for KC...wow, why even show up? TB by 10.

BUF-ARI: This looks like a toss up, but I'll say ARI squeaks by but doesn't cover the 5.

NE-SEA: SEA is always a tough spot to play, as we've seen this year. But I really think NE is rolling right now and will keep on trucking...NE by 7.

MIN-WAS: The numbers tell me if RG3 plays the Skins win by 6. However, I picked Purple in all the pick'ems because I'm not sure if RG3 will play or how much he might with a more important game against NYG on deck. I'll take MIN until they prove me wrong...SKOL WINS 21-20.

NYG-SF: Everyone is in love with SF now since they started covering big numbers and blowing people out. However, this NYG is strong and will come out to play on the road this week. I think it's a very close game and 49ers win by a FG or less.

GB-HOU: My number is HOU -4 on this one, the same as the spread. I can't trust GB rigtht now, although they are getting close to the desperate territory, which makes them dangerous. I'll take GB to cover the 4 and lose.

DEN-SD: a coin flip game in my book, give me the better D and better trending team in DEN getting +2.

That's you're late but extended Week 7 Weekend Preview - enjoy the games, Good Luck! 

Week 6 Preview

Week 6 is loaded with a great slate of NCAA games and the first full round of bye weeks in the NFL. The FC group is coming off our best week of the year, so let's see if we keep the momentum going.

CONSENSUS:
An astounding 10-5 last week, certainly a huge turnaround from our usual performance in this area. We're either getting smarter or luckier...not sure which is better.

This week's 15 are as follows:
BAL, CHI, PIT, GB, NYG, NO, NW, ATL, GEO, UCLA, DEN, LSU, MICH, OHIOST, STL

NCAA:
Shocking, but I went 7-3 in my preview picks again last week, including nailing the OHIOST-MSU score right on the nuts. That's like 4 weeks in a row at 7-3, not a bad way to make money if you do it right. I feel like my time is running out however, and Vegas is still 2 weeks away. We'll see...here are my picks in the top 10 games for this week:

NW AT PSU
I really don't think NW is that great of a team, and this game will be a huge test for them even though PSU is down this season. PSU destroyed ILL last week, now they play at home in a big game...could be interesting. For being undefeated NW has some very average numbers, but they've won in typical NW fashion. This week I think they find a way once again to sneak out with an emotional close win before coming to Dinkytown next weekend. NW 22-21.

VT AT NC
VT was a pretty popular ACC choice this preseason, but they really have been a disappointment. Even their D, which is typically great, looks pedestrian this year. NC struggled a lot out of the gate, but has since gotten healthy and started to roll a little bit. I think NC is better in all facets and wins this one easily...27-10.

AZ AT STAN
I've been a believer in AZ for the last few weeks, not really sure why, but they've been on my short list a lot lately. I think most are down on STAN based on the WASH loss, but I think they were a little overrated to begin with. STAN has struggled at times with moving the ball, but I don't expect the Zona D to stop them. Especially in a rebound game off a bad loss, I think STAN will come out running it and won't be stopped. AZ, as always, will score some points, but I don't think they keep up. STAN wins 41-17.

LSU AT FLA
Very big games in the SEC on Saturday, and this is the first one. The Tigers man-handled the Gators last year who were starting a true freshman QB in his first action. At LSU is not the ideal spot to make your college debut as a QB! From what I've seen this year from Muschamp and the Gators, I think they are a very different team and may be seeking revenge against the Grass Eater in the swamp this week. The Gators are also coming in off a bye, so 2 weeks to prepare...hmmmm. LSU has been great on D, but ineffective on offense the last couple of weeks. The new QB is struggling to adjust, and I don't think the Gator D will give too much on Saturday. Getting 2.5 at home in a big game with revenge on their mind?!? Yep, I'm calling for the Gators to pull the upset...FLA 20-9.

OK AT TT
Is TT for real and is OK really not very good? I think both of those will be answered this week. I'm not sure I believe in TT, their offense always scores points but I don't think their D will finish anywhere near the #1 ranking they have right now. OK has looked awful so far, but come on, it's OK right...they should be fine. Also, I think they'll be playing with a revenge angle against the TT team that ended their big home win streak last year. My numbers are calling for a TT win by a FG, but I can't go with that. I'll say OK wins 44-31.

MICH AT PUR
I've heard no less than 3 people this week talking/writing about how PUR might be the B1G Champs this year. I think it's time to simmer down nah on that one. PUR still looks very average at best, they are playing with confidence now but after that first loss it will crumble like it always has under Danny Hope. MICH has had a very tough early schedule, but it's probably time for them to start figuring things out. Robinson avoids the turnovers and runs for 2 score in a MICH win that starts the annual PUR collapse...MICH 34-27.

WV AT TEX
This is the toughest call of the week for me. WV is pretty flawless on offense, which could be enough for them to win this one. TEX hasn't exactly been great on D this year and the offense has been known to struggle in the past even though the numbers are nice this year. Both D's thrive off the turnovers at this point, but I probably give the nod to TEX in the long run. I think it will be close, so I'll take the points at Crazy Holgo to cover and lose a tight one...TEX 31-28.

GEO AT SC
I nearly included this one on my list, but didn't. I really was surprised by the way GEO struggled last week with TEN. I think they could be a little overrated based on their strong offense this season. SC has played great since that early scare with VANDY. This one comes down to defense for me, which always seems to be the case in the SEC. SC has the superior D and home field in a night game against an offense missing their top WR and off a shaky turnover laced performance last week. I take Spurrier to win and cover...19-13.

MIAMI AT ND
This game is actually being played at Soldier's Field in Chicago, but basically a home game for ND. Miami is coming off of 2 emotional wins in a row, and now they go to a chilly Chicago for an October game. ND is rolling right now, and living off their defense, while Miami plays no D and scores a bunch of points. I hate giving the large number with ND, but I really think they make it work this week and won't have a problem scoring against this horrible Miami D. Irish win and cover 40-21.

NEB AT OHIOST
A huge clash in the B1G between two teams both coming off big wins last week. On paper, this line looks exactly right to me. NEB has better numbers on both sides of the ball, but the X-factor may be Uncle Rico against Urban's D. I think the Buckeyes will be jacked for this game and force a couple bad turnovers to come out on top 27-23.

NFL
Last week I went 12-3 in the preview picks, tied for the win in this pool and won 2 other pick'ems...so it was a pretty good week. Once again, karma has to catch up to me and change this back...but I'm rolling with it while I can. Here's what I'm thinking for this week:

ARI-STL: Obviously, this one is almost over, I had STL in the pool and loved them to win this one. ARI is not for real, no offense gets you nowhere in the NFL.
PHI-PIT: Another game I love. PHI has burned me 2-3 times this year, so I'm going against them with a PIT team off the bye. PHI won a must have game last week, so I don't think they'll bring much to this one.
MIA-CIN: I kind of don't think this MIA team is half bad. Getting more than a FG in this game seems high to me, so I'll go Fins on the road with the Bengals off 2 blowout wins in a row.
GB-IND: Pack should have lost last week, they won't lose this week...but I like IND to cover the number. I really don't think this GB club is that great this season.
CLE-NYG: CLE is so terrible I think I have to go NYG.
ATL-WAS: I'm still not sure if ATL is as great as people think. This will be a tough road trip, so I'm going to go with RG3 again this week and expect the Skins to win outright.
BAL-KC: BAL rolls very easily in this one and crushes KC.
SEA-CAR: I think CAR is a mess, and with a bye coming next week I think they lay another egg against a better than expected SEA team and lose this one.
CHI-JAC: I like betting against big MNF winners on the road the next week...but JAC is pretty awful. However, out of principal, I will take JAC.
TEN-MIN: Major trap game for Purple team. They will not cover this number and I'm hoping they just do enough to win it.
BUF-SF: I think I'm in the minority here, but I kind of think BUF will give the 49ers a game in this one. I'll take Bills and points.
DEN-NE: Brady found it last week, DEN on the road is still not very impressive...NE rolls.
SD-NO: 0-5 would end the season for NO. SD on the road off a big division win will be sleep walking. NO gets win number one by a good margin.
HOU-NYJ: Tough call in this one. It seems like a perfect spot for the NYJ to step up and show people they are indeed an NFL team and play really well when you least expect it. HOU has cruised so far and coming into a seemingly easy road game I think they might lay off the gas a bit. I think it's close for a half, but the Jets really don't have anything or anyone that can score points...so I'll take HOU.

The sting from the Maroon and Gold loss last week has kind of worn off. It was a frustrating game, but a young team on the road needs to start well to have the confidence...and they didn't. MN got down early and it snowballed from there. No worries, I really like our chances to still be a bowl team and get a win next week over NW.

Sorry for the lack of creativity this week on the preview, on a time crunch. We have 6 kindergarteners sleeping over tomorrow night for my daughter's birthday party, so there's a little prep work to be done...according to my wife at least.

Good Luck this weekend.

Week 5 Preview

HATE WEEK Part I of 2012 is here as the mighty Maroon and Gold make the journey down to Iowa this weekend. We'll get to some of the scary confidence that this group has in the Gophs in a moment but until then...

PROTECT THE PIG!!!

First of all, let's look at the popular picks for the week. These actually fared okay last week:
#1 choice...MN GOPHERS by 16 of us, love the confidence but hate that everyone sees this as obvious because that usually means it's not. NYG, STAN, SD, NE, CHI, SF, CIN, GB, WIS, ORE, BAL, MIN, MIZZ, STL.

Once again the Gophers and Vikings make the list....as well as the Badgers and Packers. Interesting. Guess how many people like the Hawkeyes this week against the Gophs...ZERO. Once again, yikes.

NCAA

7-3 again last week in my picks for the 10 biggest games of the weekend. You'd think I would just start playing these games, but I'm not that sharp. Why play these and go 7-3 when I can pick 3 MAC games and 3 CUSA games and go 1-5.

GOPHERS AT IOWA

1st game of the day, 11AM Saturday morning. Like I said before, 16 on MN and 0 on IA. I've had an uneasy feeling about this one since last Saturday ended. It's one of the 2 games per year that I care about the most, and MN has won 2 in a row. The Killers come into Iowa City with a 4-0 mark and a lot of momentum. Iowa comes in at 2-2 with a 1-2 home record and a lot to prove. This is kind of a complete role reversal from the last couple of years. I was happy to see the line posted at 6.5-7.5, because coming in as a favorite or very small dog is not a good spot. MN needs to be in that underdog role, so with the line for us at 6.5 I feel like there's a chance to have this all work out the right way. The Gophs D is much improved, and Iowa's offense looks awful. They lean 100% on their 2nd string FB turned starting HB to move the ball 4 yards at a time and score all of their points. I'm not sure what has happened to Vandenberg, but him and that receiving crew look terrible this season. I don't think the new OC is helping things...remember, this is a guy who's brilliance struggled at times with Texas-type athletes so sputtering at Iowa isn't exactly a shocker to me. I know it's crazy, but barring a $hit-ton of turnovers by Shortell and company, I can't see Iowa scoring a ton of points in this one. Our defense hasn't been amazing against the run, but we really haven't prepared to stop the run by playing a lot of quick/short passing teams the last 3 weeks. UNLV is a running club, and after the 1st quarter they couldn't run the ball at all. So I think the Gophers defense will limit the running game and keep this game close. The biggest concern for me is that the offense needs to do something and not make mistakes. Shortell in a road start will be nervous and likely struggle at times. Iowa, as bad as they've been, still plays pretty decent defense. (They did give up 32 to CMU last week, but I'm sure that was a fluke just like FLOYD 2010 and FLOYD 2011 games). Kirkwood and the running game has been solid, but this game will be won with a couple of big passing plays from Max and the receivers. So far, they have done a wonderful job of taking care of the ball, so if this continues and they find a couple of explosive plays in the passing game, then I think this turns out well. To me, it looks like a FG game either way, but obviously, I'll go with my club...GOPHERS KEEP FLOYD 23-20.

BAYLOR AT WV
Holy Offense Batman! Yeah, I know, I thought that last week too in the AZ-ORE game, but I really think this one has to be a shootout. BAY may as well not even field a defense, it would end with the same result. WV does play more D, but I think Holgo loves a shootout much more than a 20-19 nail biter. Both team live off of big plays and turnovers, so I expect a lot of fireworks in this one. With that being said, give me the +12.5 and the Baylor Bears. WV wins by a TD.

ARKANSAS AT A&M
So I had this one on the list for awhile early in the week, but I ultimately removed it. You know ARK has the talent to play much better than they have so far this year. They will have that effort eventually that jumps up and shocks the hell out of everyone in a big spot. The only question is will that be this week? On the flip side, I think A&M can be really good, and may blow out ARK. The Hogs play no D and turn it over a lot, so I think that continues and A&M cover the number on this one...but look out AUB next week because ARK might beat you by 30!

CMU AT NILL
I know, not really a major game, but I only had 9 I liked on the list so it's a filler. I chose it because I think it is an obvious pick that would be worth wagering a bundle on in Sin City (T-22 days and counting btw). CMU coming off an emotional high with the win in the land of Meth and Piggys, and now going on the road for the 2nd of 3 straight road games to open conference play. Not a fun spot. NILL is a quality club that plays very well on both sides of the ball and could really make some noise if they stopped turning it over. This will be U-G-L-Y...NILL 49-16.

OHIOST AT MSU
This feels like a B1G matchup that should be played in late NOV and not a sunny afternoon in September. Both teams are built in similar ways with a focus on running the ball and playing D. Neither QB throws it very well at all. Both are off of underwhelming wins last week, clearly both coaches were focusing on this one vs. spending time on the lesser opponents of last Saturday. OHIOST has really been very average on D this year, but they have thrived on the turnovers. MSU has been dominant on D, as expected, but their only impressive win is a 41-7 beatdown at CMU (yes, that 32-31 over Iowa CMU) in Week 2. The Sparty offense scares me in this one, as they don't necessarily need a great D to slow them down. I think OHIOST hangs in on D and waits for Maxwell to make a mistake, while Urban finds a couple of sneaky ways to score points (special teams? trick plays?) and ends up winning this one in East Lansing...Buckeyes 17-16.

TENNESSEE AT GEO
Despite the Week 1 belief that TEN was a contender this year, I really think Dooley is going to be out of a job and this team is going nowhere fast. GEO looks dominant to me so far, and they may unload in this one and help Dooley pack his bags a little faster than expected. It could be embarassing...GEORGIA 45-20.

TEXAS TECH AT IOWA STATE
Do I really think this is a big game? Sort of. Am I pretending it's big as a part of HATE WEEK to annoy the 2nd or 3rd best team in Iowa...yep. Cyclone nation feels like they might still have another win on the slate as they welcome in an also undefeated TT team that has destroyed a schedule that includes 3 schools who probably couldn't even consolidate to field a roster that would even keep it close against LeRoy-Ostrander. So yeah, I'm not real impressed with who the Red Raiders have beaten, but to their credit they have pounded everyone in Leach-like fashion. Team Natty Lite has a couple of nice wins over Tulsa and Iowa so far, and being a home dog in an evening game should provide a little extra motivation. As you would expect, the TT numbers are absurd so I really can't even use those to predict anything in this one. ISU is playing very strong D, but offensively they really struggle (see 15 turnovers vs. Iowa in the 9-6 thriller). When it comes down to it, I just think the Red Raiders, even if the Clones slow them down a bit, will score 25-35 points. I really don't think the Clones are capable of that. Sorry guys, you're still the best team in Iowa, but you lose this one...TT 34-24.

TEXAS AT OKST
Lots of questions in this one. Is OKST for real? AZ handled them, but that was the first road start for a Freshman QB. They are a very good team in Stillwater, but will the motivation for Texas be high enough after losing the last couple in a row to the Cowboys? The jury is still out for me with Texas. I love their athletes, but they have not been good the last couple of years so why would I think they are better in 2012? The D still gave up 31 to lowly Ole Miss their last time out, which means OKST could score 62 on them. However, with 2 teams that have relatively identical stats and strength of schedule, I'll got with the team that's averaging +2 turnovers per game over the team that is averaging -2 TO per game...TEXAS 39-30.

WISCONSIN AT NEBRASKA
You know who the whole world is cheering for in this one and the force begins to even itself out after the last couple of years of ALL WISCONSIN/GREEN BAY WINNING EVERYTHING. Thank god most of us survived that short-lived period of modern history. 2012 is a year where a lot of teams are going to want a little payback on Bert and the gang...and it starts this week. WIS may not have a win this year if not for their solid D. The offense is averaging a putrid 4.6 ypp and they frequently turn the ball over. They destroyed NEB in Madison last year, I know we've all tried to forget it, but they did. NEB looks okay this year. As has been the trend, the Pelini D (formerly known as the black shirts) really isn't that scary once again this year. Uncle Rico looks like he learned to throw a little, but I'm still not convinced. This is that classic, "oh my god NEB is much better and will want to run it up so they'll win by 50!" kind of trap game. WIS will find a way to hang around and stay in this thing...you just have to know they will. NEB win (which is all that matters for some of us) but WIS covers this big number...NEB 23-17.

ORE ST AT ARIZONA
Alright Zona, you disappointed the hell out of me last week, so it's redemption time. OREST, despite their 2 nice wins so far, really don't impress me. I think Zona, in the new copper helmets, comes out firing and converts on a majority of those 6 redzone trips that they misfired on last week. The Beavers don't put together a great effort 2 weeks in a row, both on the road, and AZ extracts a little revenge for the blowout last week. Zona wins and cover 35-24.

There's the magic 10 - mark down another 7-3, right? I only used 3 in my plays for the week, so we'll see.

NFL

As beautifully as the NCAA picks are going for me this year, my usual strength of the NFL is not so hot. A god-awful 4-10 performance last week was depressing. I re-assessed, got back to basics, and bought a new set of darts...so here we go:

CLE-BAL: Obviously, this one is going right now, but I did like CLE in it, which looks like probably the right side.
SEA-STL: Loving STL for the 4th week in a row, WTF? How can you not bet against this SEA team on a short week off the ultimate emotional win, traveling cross country for a division game as a road favorite? Yes, I wish they were all this easy. STL wins.
SD-KC: I kind of think this one is a no-brainer as well. KC with an improbable come from behind win last week (still have Romeo as coach) against a better Charger team that got blown away at home. Loving SD in this one.
PURPLE-DET: Call me crazy, drunk, high, whatever...but I think this Purple team is better than I thought. I know, it's one big win, but I like what I see. And they are in a good spot here at DET to play motivated football and win again. Vikes win outright!! SKOL!!
NE-BUF: All my numbers and research tell me BUF is the play, but I feel like this pick has to come down to one stat...NE is 1-2 after 2 straight L's, do you think they'll be motivated? Yep. Take NE.
SF-NYJ: Niners are a good team that was uninterested last week. NYJ are a bad team that got lucky last week. SF is the pick.
TEN-HOU: Wow is TEN bad...and they beat DET! This will be a laugher. Pick HOU.
CAR-ATL: Cam Newton pissed me off enough last week to maybe never pick this team again, or at least this week. I'll take ATL to cover the big number.
OAK-DEN: Very tough call here for me. I've been picking DEN too much because they are getting more credit than they deserve. It's a toss up to me, but I'll try Peyton and the home field in this one.
CIN-JAC: Another one of my plays...JAC. CIN in back to back road games and off a big win in WAS is not a good spot. JAGS are a live home dog this week.
MIA-ARI: Undefeated Cards, I still don't know if they are that good. But MIA is worse...However, it's a major letdown spot for ARI so MIAMI is the pick.
WAS-TB: Loving RG3 in this one. I think the bandwagon has slowed since the NO win in week 1, which means it's a perfect time to jump on them this week. WAS +3.
NO-GB: Have to like GB after MNF, but my god does NO have to be ready to play some extreme desperation football because 0-4 is a death blow. I'll take NO and more than a TD.
NYG-PHI: My Philly club has looked terrible every week. Somehow, they are 2-1. NYG coming off a crushing win over CAR. I believe too much in Reid's history to not think that this team will show up big in this one and win by more than a FG. I'll take Eagles.
CHI-DAL: Pretty even team in my mind, so not sure how this line is more than a FG. But since it is, I'll take advantage and play BEARS +4.

Sorry for the late summary and preview this week - sometimes the FC rhythm gets interrupted by the day job, but until I/we get better at picking these that will continue.

It's a big week - GO GOPHS!
Good Luck.

Week 4 Preview

 

Week 4 is here, it actually started last night with a classic KENT at BUFF MACtion. It's a week with a few marquee games (all in the evening) and a tough slate of NFL matchups.

GROUP 15

This went 5-10 again last week, the 15 most popular picks are not a good list to take to the window in Vegas. So for this week, here's what we have:

SF,DET,GB,BUF,ATL,HOU,NYG,PIT,USC.MICH,SYR,MN,STL,DEN,NE

Obviously, all of these won't work out because we have both sides picked on a couple of different matchups, but another 3-12 or 4-11 is likely considering our last 3 weeks.

My College preview picks went 7-3 last week! 70% for a lifetime 45% guy in NCAA Football is crazy!! So I'm expecting something closer to 3-7 this week to keep me from boarding that next red eye to Vegas on a Friday night. NFL picks were a respectable 8-6 last week. So here we go for Week 4 with my first two teams already in action and looking like the wrong sides (CAROLINA?!?! and BOISE)

MIAMI AT GT

I nearly put Miami on the list this week, but their defense has been so porous that I couldn't do it. However, I'll take them getting more than 2 TD's this week at GT for my preview picks. GT is coming off a revenge blowout of VIR, and I expect them to be a little down. MIA's last real game was getting housed by KST, so they have to be ready to avenge that and open ACC play. I'll call for a Canes upset win 30-25.

OREST AT UCLA

The Beavers are still coming off the big WIS victory and UCLA has had a tremendous start to the year by beating NEB and HOU the last couple of weeks. I think UCLA will struggle a little bit more this week and the Beavers will keep this one close. UCLA wins 23-17.

MIZZ AT SC

This one did make my list. 3rd tough game in a row for MIZZOU and their 1st SEC road game. Ruh-roh. SC is real deal on defense and offensively they can do enough to beat you. I think MIZZOU comes in a struggles badly. Their offense hasn't been good all year, and this is a great defense they have to play on the road. I'll say SC rolls through MIZZ 27-7.

CAL AT USC

I was pretty shocked at the USC loss last week. I really didn't think STAN could match up with them, but it seemed to be a lack of toughness and desire that beat the Trojans all night. CAL is a mess. They did nearly beat OHIOST last week, but that may have been their last hurrah. Tedford is on the hot seat, they face a brutal schedule, and I don't think USC will take them lightly. Trojans show up and roll the over matched Bears 44-14.

LSU AT AUB

I think we're all finding out how the great Gene Chizik does when he doesn't have an all-world QB leading his team. Really, there is no excuse to be as pathetic as his last couple teams have been at a school like AUB. He finally got win #1 of the season last week in OT vs. ULM. With 3 more guaranteed L's on the slate, he's got to win all the toss up's to even get this club into a bowl game. No bowl likely means no job for Mean Gene. LSU looks as loaded as ever, and I think we can officially start counting down the days until they play ALA in Game of the Century Part 3 on November 3rd. What will happen this week...well, it may surprise you, but I think AUB may show a little life and make this interesting. I'm expecting the AUB D to play tough and give LSU a fight. I don't think AUB can score at all, but I'll say LSU barely covers 27-6.

MICH AT ND

 Yes, this was the score after 3 quarters last year before all craziness happened and MICH scored 4 4th quarter TD's to win after it looked like they had lost at least twice. ND could not cover anyone last year as Robinson just threw up prayer after prayer and MICH kept catching them. Last week, ND impressed by totally shutting down the Sparty running game and scoring just enough to beat Sparty easily. MICH has not been overly impressive this season. ND is a better team with a better D and revenge on their mind with homefield advantage. Lots to like there...I'll take the Irish 31-20.

KST AT OK

KST is a nice little story through this season and last year, but this is OK on the road. OK doesn't lose home games. KST got rolled big time last year at home against OK, and I think this game could be similar. I like Boomer Sooner to win big...49-20.

SYR AT MN

SYR is getting a lot of love for being a 1-2 team who struggled with Stonybrook last week. Their claim to fame (like the early season 2011 Gophers) was playing close to USC. NW had them beat badly before completely collapsing like all NW Defenses do from time to time. I think SYR is an athletic team that plays pretty well on both sides of the ball, but I don't think they know how to win. Last week was their first win in their last 9! games. They lost 6 straight to end last season and their first 2 this year. So many are calling for them to come into the Bank and win on the road vs. an equally athletic team? I don't see it. The Gophers have questions with some injuries and obviously the new QB. Shortell looked very good last week, but I'm guessing he'll be a little jittery under the lights with the heat on him from the start. This will be the toughest test to date for the Gophs, so they are going to have to play their best game. The defense needs to continue their great play, which I think they can do as SYR runs a very similar look to WMU that they saw last week. Shortell has to make some throws and not get them beat by turning it over. The offense looked a lot different with him in there last week, so lets hope that continues. Running the ball, like always, will be critical for a Gopher W. I think they can do it - a night game with a sell out crowd against a tough opponent...time to make a statement and keep this train rolling while going into the B1G season. Gophs win and cover 30-23.

CLEM AT FSU

This was a tough call for me. I think FSU is definitely for real, and they are playing with a revenge angle from last year when CLEM beat them. CLEM is a nice team, but I have a hard time believing in them, even though they have been impressive throughout the first 3 and all of last year. I think the Noles are the better team, but I'll say they aren't 14 points better this weekend. FSU wins 34-24.

ARIZONA AT OREGON

This may actually be my predicted score in this one. LOTS O' OFFENSE all around for this late nighter. I'm planning on watching it after the Gophs victory and making up a drinking game around every TD and type of TD that can and will be scored in this one. If anyone is interested, text me after the Gopher W and we'll make this work. Not a lot of D on either side, which is why I think AZ +23.5 might be the best bet on the board this week. I really don't see ORE losing, but I don't expect them to stop anyone either. I'm saying Ducks win 66-49.

In other news this week, let's keep an eye on our other 2 favorites.

CMU AT IOWA

The Hogeyes looked like they kind of started to get it together last week. They did lose 2 more RB's, which is ridiculous, but the 2nd string FB playing HB worked....against a power like UNI. Defensively, I think Iowa is fine, but I'm still not sure the offense is much to be afraid of at this point. CMU might be worse than UNI. I don't think much of them at all this season, and I'd actually prefer it if team Ferentz gets a little more confidence going before Kill Nation comes to town next weekend. Nobody wants to go in against a team that is in a desperate situation, so a reasonable win this week keeps Iowa at 3-1. Honestly, I think they'll cruise...34-13.

UTEP at WIS

After canning the OL coach 2 games into the season, Bert was back at it again this week demoting free agent QB Danny O'Brien to 2nd string. Another pathetic performance, another sneaky victory, and another major change by Bert as he looks to find the magic of '10 and '11. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the coaching losses and player losses and lack of QB development that Bert has been responsible for over the last few years. UTEP isn't awful, and I honestly don't think WIS can get much going on offense once again. I'll call for the Becky D to eek out another one for Bert and win 20-17. God I hope this keep up all year long...or at least through OCT 20th!!

NFL

I did select CAR tonight...and yeah. Next.

STL-CHI: give me the Rams for the 3rd week in a row. 9 points is crazy! This is not a terrible team. I expect the Bears to play better than they did on Thur, but 9 is too high.

CIN-WAS: Nearly put this one on my list, but the 3.5 is a tough number. I think CIN is better than we think and WAS is not as good as we think. However, I will take WAS in this one.

BUF-CLE: I'm still a believer in my Bills and I still think CLE is terrible. BUF to win and cover.

SF-MIN: Call me crazy, but I think getting a TD might be too much this week. No doubt that SF will find a way to win the game, but the Purple could step up and do something crazy against a 49er team that could be a little disinterested this week. Purple cover.

KC-NO: With this CAR performance tonight, I think even less of NO. Even before this game, I liked KC. Now I wish I would have included it in my picks...instead of CAR!

JAC-IND: I've watched them both, and I don't think either is worth a crap. However, Luck > Gabbert...so I'll take Colts at home.

TB-DAL: The see-saw continues in DAL as I think they roll this week over TB. Tampa is nothing special, and DAL will cover the TD.

NYJ-MIA: tough call here. However, I'm still going against MIA because of Taneyhill. Jets cover.

DET-TEN: I'm very tempted by TEN here. I think DET will underestimate them coming in, but I do believe they are that bad and DET will end up covering the number in a close win.

PHI-ARI: Will Philly finally play a strong game? Will ARI finally play poorly? I think yes on both fronts. PHI wins and covers.

ATL-SD: ATL got way up for their big MNF win, now they travel on a short week and SD is a good team. Super Chargers win this one and cover.

PIT-OAK: I really am not thinking much of PIT this year and OAK is desperate for a W at 0-2. I love the Raiders with the points and think they win outright.

HOU-DEN: Lots of HOU love floating around right now, but DEN still is a really strong team...especially at home. I think Peyton has flashbacks of owning the Texans like he did as a Colt and the Broncos win and cover.

NE-BAL: Toughest call of the week in my opinion. I think BAL is a better team right now, but NE getting points off a loss seems to tasty to pass up, right? Well, I'll buck the trend and say BAL wins and covers.

GB-SEA: SEA got their big win last week, I don't think lightning strikes twice. GB wins and covers.

Only 6 dogs for me this week, which is a lot less than usual in the NFL. Should be a fun week as we get the final tune up before conference play begins for most NCAA teams. Gopher Nation needs to show up big-time Saturday night and push the squad to a win over the Orange!!

Good Luck!!