Football Challenge

Super Bowl Review - Post Season Final Standings

2012-02-06T11:45:00.000-06:00

I didn't have the energy to write this up last night, so sorry for over-promising and under-delivering. After 2 early mornings with the kids, painting our dining room, and back to back nights of booze I was completely spent after watching the Super Bowl. It was a classic, not because of the quality of play, which I thought was kind of sub-par, but because it featured a couple of memorable moments between 2 major teams and came down to the last play.

So the NYG win & cover made it a race bewteen JR, TN, and GT. TN and GT both needed to beat me by 3 in the props to win outright. It didn't happen. I hit 8 of 10 on my props, and took the overall post-season title. This continues the Rollins dominance of post-season football as G-Reg won last year's post-season and I won in 2009-10.

Props - there was no prize awarded, but I hit 8 of 10, which was the best score. JG had 5, AW had 5, GR hit 2, MH hit 7, MC hit 1, SS had 5, RO had 4, TN had 4, MT had 6, GT had 7, CP had 5, JH had 6, and MO had 6. Overall a pretty strong prop performance by most of us.

Here are the final post-season standings:
POST-SEASON W

JR 73

GT 70

TN 67

MH 62

MT 61

SS 54

CP 54

AW 51

MC 51

GR 49

MO 48

RO 46

MR 41

JG 39

JH 37

LW 33

MS 0

Once again, thanks to all of you for a great year. Hope to see you all on the 17th of March to collect your payday and potentially gamble it all away watching March Madness and having cocktails in Chanhassen.

Here's the final cash tally for everyone for the Football Challenge 2011-12:

MH - $100
MR - $100
RO - skunked
SS - $450
TN - $150
CP - skunked
LW - skunked
MO - $50
JR - $300
MC - skunked
MT - $50
GT - $100
MS - $100
GR - $200
AW - $50
JH - $50

The 4 of you who were skunked and have nothing to collect should still show up as Steve and I owe you each a cocktail. There has to be a consolation prize of some sort, right?

Super Bowl Preview - End of Football Challenge 2011-12

2012-02-03T16:05:00.000-06:00

It's a sad time of the year, all you'll get from me going forward for the next 7-8 months is Hawkeye/Vadger bashing and commentaries on off-season incidents. Well, that's not 100% true. We are approaching golf season, and picking the majors, which I hope you all participate in this year. And some March Madness action (where my NCAA Hoops record is about double my college football win %!!). But nonetheless, another season comes to a close and it sucks. But on the bright side you each have 8 months to figure out what the hell happened and how you can get better (or worse) next season. I'll stay in touch through the FC and we'll start planning for next year. But more on that after we're done...let's get to the big game!!

So we have 2 members who failed to turn in picks, MR, in his yearly MR tradition, is likely not in contention at this point so for the 3rd year in a row he refuses to pick the Super Bowl. Mike's just waiting for next September when his 75% college picking abilities can take over again! Luke also chose to not enter Super Bowl picks this year, and based on his 3-7 playoff run and current 5 game losing streak...I can't blame him. However, a lot of us are in contention for the $250 and title of Post-Season Gambling Champion. So here we go...

It will basically go one of 2 ways starting with who wins the game. We have 7 guys on the NYG and 7 on the PATS.

NYG: JR, MH, MC, TN, MT, GT, MO
NE: JG, AW, GR, SS, RO, CP, JH

Here's a quick look at the leaderboard before we get into our scenarios:

POST-SEASON W
JR 55
TN 53
GT 53
SS 49
CP 49
GR 47
AW 46
MH 45
MT 45
RO 42
MR 41
MC 40
JG 34
LW 33
MO 32
JH 31
MS 0

IF NYG WIN:
It comes down to a 3 horse race in the props between JR, TN, and GT.
JR holds a 2 point lead on both of these 2, so here's a winning scenario for each guy...

JR vs. TN
JR has NO missed FG, Nick > Cruz, Over 1.5 yds shortest TD, Under 5.5 sacks

TN would have to sweep these 4 to overtake JR...a 3-1 advantage would make it a push, which comes down to overall playoff wins, which JR would win at 10-1 vs. 9-2.

JR vs. GT
JR has UNDER 55.5, NYG +.5 H1, Brady>Manning, Nicks>Cruz, Under 5.5 Sacks

With 5 shared props, GT would have to win 4 of 5 to take the title. 3 of 5 or less would give the win to JR based on tiebreaker once again.

TN vs. GT
If they both beat me on Cruz-Nicks and OVER 5.5 sacks, then we'll be all square and it would come down to these props between these 2 that could win them the title:

TN: YES missed FG, GT and JR both have NO; UNDER shortest TD 1.5yds, JR & GT have OVER.

GT: OVER 55.5 total, JR and TN have UNDER; PATS -.5 H1, TN and JR have NYG; Manning>Brady, TN and JR have Brady.

Quick Guide to meaningful differences:
TOTAL 55.5 = GT OVER
NE -.5 H1 = GT PATS
Brady vs. Manning Yards = GT Manning
Missed FG = TN YES
Cruz vs. Nicks Rec Yds = JR Nicks
Shortest TD 1.5 yds = TN UNDER
Sacks 5.5 = JR UNDER

TN and GT need to make up 3 points on me to win it. Lots of possibilities, but it'll play itself out as we go. Some of these props could be decided early, so you can track your chances.

If NE WINS and COVERS...

Here is what the board would look like pre-props:

POST-SEASON W
SS 59
CP 59
GR 57
AW 56
JR 55

SS vs. CP
There are 4 differences in the props between these 2:
SS has OVER 55.5, Nicks > Cruz, OVER 1.5 shortest TD, OVER 5.5 sacks
CP would hold the tiebreaker based on a better playoff record. So SS would need to win 3 of those to take the title.

GR needs to make up 2 points on both of these guys. A D/SPT TD would be 1 for GR, who is the only guy to take YES out of all 14 of us. Missed FG YES would also give GR a point vs. both SS and CP. Assuming both of those happen, he would then need to win 2 of these 3 against CP: OVER 55.5, OVER 1.5yds shortest TD, or OVER 5.5 sacks. He would need to win Cruz > Nicks to beat out SS. There's a chance, but it might take some luck.

AW would need even more luck sitting 3 points behind SS and CP. If BOMB wins all 10 of his prop bets, he would be champ by 1 point.

JR has a similar situation, if I win all 10 of my props I could still win the crown...even with a NYG loss and non-cover.

If you can follow this...wow. Sorry it turned into a bit of a trainwreck, I guess I'll just lay out the picks for you and you can keep score at home if you like...or wait for my late night email on Sunday to find out what happened.

Here are the picks

JR: 55 NY U G N N B N N N O U

TN: 53 NY U G N N B Y N C U O

GT: 53 NY O P N N M N N C O O

SS: 49 NE O P N Y B N Y N O O

CP: 49 NE U P N Y B N Y C U U

GR: 47 NE O P Y Y B Y Y C O O

AW: 46 NE O P N N B Y Y C O U

MH: 45 NY O G N N M N Y N O U

MT: 45 NY U G N N B N Y C O U

RO: 42 NE O G N Y M Y Y C O U

MC: 40 NY O G N Y B Y Y C U O

JG: 34 NE O P N N B Y Y N O O

MO: 32 NY U G N Y B Y N N O U

JH: 31 NE U P N N B Y Y C O U

Name, Pts, Game pick, prop picks:
1. TOTAL 55.5 (O/U)
2. H1 NE -.5 (G/P)
3. D/SPT TD - (Y/N)
4. 1st Score = TD? (Y/N)
5. More Passing Yds (B/M)
6. Missed FG? (Y/N)
7. Score in first 5:30? (Y/N)
8. Rec Yards Nicks or Cruz? (N/C)
9. Shotest TD O/U 1.5 yds (O/U)
10. Sacks 5.5 (O/U)

I'll try to send out some updates while some of these are decided. 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, and 10 could/should all be decided during the game, so I'll fill those in as we go and try to keep you updated the best I can.

It's been a great season guys - I love having the big group and all the new people invovled...it really made it the best year of the Football Challenge to date. Have fun on Sunday, Good Luck!! Go G-Men!!

Need Picks from...

2012-02-02T09:00:00.001-06:00

Still waiting on Super Bowl pick and props from these guys:

ROE
PEYTON
LUKE
HAMMER

Get them to me sometime today and I'll send out the large Super Bowl preview tomorrow.

Thanks.

Super Bowl PROPS

2012-01-30T12:16:00.000-06:00

Alright, the week off was kind of refreshing...but now it's time to figure out our post-season champion. I sent out the line last week, and here are the 10 prop bets. Reminder, the game is worth 10 points, and each of these props is worth 1 point for a total of 20 possible points available on the Super Bowl.

STANDINGS
POST-SEASON W
JR 55
TN 53
GT 53
SS 49
CP 49
GR 47
AW 46
MH 45
MT 45
RO 42
MR 41
MC 40
JG 34
LW 33
MO 32
JH 31
MS 0

LINE
NYG
NE -3

PROPS
1. TOTAL 55.5 (Over or Under)
2. 1st Half lines NE -.5 (NYG +.5 or NE -.5)
3. Will there be a defensive or special team TD (Yes or No)
4. Will the first score be a TD? (Yes or No)
5. Who will have more passing yards (Brady or Manning)
6. Will there be a missed FG (Yes or No)
7. Will there be a score in the first 5:30 of the game (Yes or No)
8. More receiving yards (CRUZ or NICKS)
9. Shortest TD of the game over/under 1.5 yards (Over or Under)
10. Total sacks over/under 5.5 (Over or Under)

So from most of you I need your pick on the game and your pick for each of the 10 props. Please try and get me these by EOD Thursday and I will send out the Super Bowl preview with winning scenarios on Friday.

It's the last Football bet of the year - make it a good one. Good Luck.

Also - just as a reminder, we're planning the 3rd annual Football Challenge Gathering of the Minds on March 17th at BWW in Chanhassen. It's the first Saturday of the NCAA Hoops Tourney, and it's also St. Patty's Day. I'm planning an all day affair of gambling, wings, and awarding the prize money from the Football Challenge. I hope you all can make it. I know we're still about 6 weeks out, but as we get closer I'd like to get a count of who plans on attending so I can make the proper arrangements. We can figure this out in FEB once all the Football is officially done, but I just wanted to remind everyone about it so you can mark off your calendar now. Even if you can't stay all day, it would be great to see everyone for a drink or two. See what you can do.

SUPER BOWL Line

2012-01-24T10:46:00.000-06:00

Here it is...

NYG
NE -3

I don't need this pick for a couple of weeks, so you can take your time or send it this week if you want...whatever.

I'll send the prop list next week, shoot me a note if you have any good props that should make the cut. They have to be either/or kind of props so nothing like "player to score the first TD?" type of thing. I've got a pretty good list going, but let me know if you see something or come up with something that is a relative 50:50 chance.

Thanks.

Good Luck!

Championship Sunday Review

2012-01-23T10:12:00.000-06:00

2 great games yesterday. The standings certainly tightened up quite a bit as I lost my first NFL Playoff game of the year. With 20 points on the line for Super Bowl week, I think anyone within 10-15 has a shot.

The line is looking like 3 right now, but I will wait to see if it changes by tomorrow when we finalize the line for our pool. I will also be putting together the 10 prop bets this week and get those out to you next week for your picks. With such a tight race, these could be really important.

CURRENT STANDINGS
POST-SEASON W
JR 55
TN 53
GT 53
SS 49
CP 49
GR 47
AW 46
MH 45
MT 45
RO 42
MR 41
MC 40
JG 34
LW 33
MO 32
JH 31
MS 0

My thoughts on the games (because I have time since nothing besides internet works on my computer right now!):

BAL-NE
I thought this was maybe the worst game I'd seen Brady play and Belichick coach in quite a long time. Brady didn't throw it very well at all and made some horrible choices (the pick after the turnover in the 4th quarter). Belichick seemed off his game as well with his questionable play calls at some points and taking a knee into half time, and not challenging some very challengable plays. With all of that, the Pats were ripe for an upset, but the idiot kicker blew the chance for the Ravens. It's amazing how critical every part of special teams becomes at this point in the season. It made the difference in both games yesterday. Flacco impressed me. He played a lot sharper than I expected. I said if you take the Ravens you are banking on an adequate performance from Flacco, they won't turn it over...which they won the TO battle, and the D will limit Brady enough for them to keep up. All of which happened, to my surprise. I think NE could have gotten it done if Brady had hit on a couple of big plays earlier that were there but he just missed. It was disappointing, I hate the win and no cover, but every streak must end. Overall, NE probably wasn't the smartest pick...I should have stuck to the priniciple of taking the better D when they are getting points.

NYG-SF
Exactly the kind of game I expected out of these 2. It really could have gone either way. The 2 TO's on punt returns...ouch, what a way to lose. Eli was outstanding again. Alex Smith looked like Alex Smith again. Seriously, if the NYG just take away Davis all day I don't think SF musters more than 6 points. 2 really strong defenses both showed up and dominated at times. I really found myself cheering against Harbaugh at the end, he just seems like such a jack-ass at times. And this suspicion was confirmed on the post game hand shake when he basically blew off Coughlin. Classy move Jim. I know he's an emotional guy and angry that he lost, but you still need to lose with a little class in a game like that. He must be from the Bert Bielema school of coaching.

Only 1 game left for Football Challenge 2011, and plenty of cash still on the line.

I'll send out the final Super Bowl line tomorrow and the 10 props next week. Nothing will be due for 2 weeks, so plan accordingly. Lots of strategery going into these picks with so many guys alive for the big prize - should be a ton of fun and a ton of drama. Good Luck!

Championship Sunday Preview

2012-01-19T14:36:00.000-06:00

The last day of the football season with multiple games to watch...so here's what we're rooting for on Sunday.

BAL at NE (-7.5)
9 on BAL and 7 on NE
NE (JR,JG,MR,AW,MC,RO,LW)

This was definitely the toughest call of the 2 for me. I started the week thinking NE, went to BAL for about 36 hours, and then settled on NE. I think you can make a case for both.
First, the case for BAL: Never in the last 4 years of playoffs and regular season have they been this large of an underdog in a game. Defense rules in the playoffs as a rule of thumb, and BAL definitely has the better defense. The case against BAL is this...Joe Flacco #1. He didn't do much to help them beat HOU, and granted he should be able to do more against a bad NE D, but after being called out by his own guys this week I don't expect anything great from him. BAL also has a tendency to turn the ball over on the road this year. Actually, they just don't play very well on the road in general only going 4-4 this year. Historically (the last 3 years), the team they plays better (wins by the largest margin) in the divisional round has won every year in the championship game...BAL struggled and only won by 7 while NE cruised. I do believe the line is very close to what the spread will actually finish at, but to buy BAL you have to be thinking that Flacco will play adequate, they won't turn it over, and the defense can limit NE enough to allow the BAL offense to keep up. BAL only averaged 24 ppg this season, but they only got blown out twice, so the odds of them keeping it within a TD are likely. With that being said, I went with NE. Why NE? In my mind, their superior offense is more of an advantage than BAL's superior defense. If I had to pick either unit (NE D or BAL O) to step up and play above their head for one game only I would take the NE D at home. Also, every team that has played a tight divisional playoff game (won by 7 or less) in the last 3 years has lost the next round. The trend I'm seeing is that Super Bowl teams have an easy time in the divisional round and don't sweat it until at least this week. BAL definitely does not fit that criteria. I hate picking against Brady/Belichick ever, especially in a big game like this. At -6.5 this is an absolute no brainer for me to take NE, but the -7.5 offers some doubt. NE has the look of a determined team that is driven to get back to prominance in the league, and there is also a revenge factor built in on this one for the beatdown BAL put on them last time they met in the Playoffs. Only 2 times in the last 3+ years has a team won the game and not covered the spread (BAL last week, and a certain Purple team at NO a couple of years back at +3.5) so I feel like it comes down to picking the team you think will win the game and don't be influenced by the points. So with that I have to take the home team, the better team, the better QB and the PATS to win.

CALL: NE wins 31-20. Brady plays like Brady, Flacco tries to prove to everyone that he is big-time and fails miserably against a brilliant Belichick defensive plan, and nobody covers Gronkowski.

NYG at SF (-2.5)
10 on NYG and 6 on SF
SF (MC,MT,CP,LW,JH,MO)

I figured this one out just a few minutes after the 4th NYG TD at the silent Lambeau field last week. Nobody is playing like the G-Men right now. Eli is not turning it over, the WR's/OL/RB's are healthy and moving the ball. The defense is playing at the same level as the last Super Bowl run the NYG made and getting tons of pressure with their front 4. SF is coming off a "nobody gave us a chance" win last week against NO, which we've seen is the kiss of death for the next round in recent history. The QB battle is an easy one, Eli > Alex. I'll give it to Smith that he played better last week, but that's against a poor NO defense that blitzes every down and has holes in their coverage. And they totally shut down the 49ers offense for most of the game but allowed points in the end and on short fields after some of the 5ish TO's that NO committed. That won't happen this week. NYG won't turn it over like NO. The defenses are both very good, the weather sounds like it will be brutal, and the turnover battle is about even. The big difference here is on offense. You have a rookie HC with a QB who is in his first playoff run vs. a veteran HC with an elite QB. I've heard a lot of bad weather = advantage 49ers talk this week. I don't necessarily agree with that. Both teams are playing on the sloppy track, so I have a hard time giving an advantage one way or another. They can both play D and run the ball, typically the 2 major factors you look at in bad weather games.

CALL: I like NYG to win 23-20 in a tight game. Give me the better QB and the points with a team that is playing better than anyone against a team that won a fluky home game last week and has a ? at QB.

Both games are worth 5 points this week for a 10 point week in total. Here are the standings once again coming into the week:

POST-SEASON W
JR 50
CP 44
TN 43
GT 43
AW 41
MC 40
MT 40
SS 39
GR 37
RO 37
MR 36
MH 35
LW 33
JG 29
MO 27
JH 26
MS 0

I have a 6 point lead, but could be passed this week by CP is he sweeps with his BAL/SF picks. 20 points available next week (10 for game, +10 single point props) so lots of room left to grow for those of you that have some extra ground to make up. Plus I'm 8-0 in the playoffs so far, so I'm bound to go 0-2 this week right?

Good Luck.

Need Picks from...

2012-01-19T09:26:00.000-06:00

ROE
M.THOMAS
COLE
LUKE W.

Thanks.

Championship Sunday Lines

2012-01-17T09:58:00.000-06:00

Here we go - 2 games this week, here are the lines.

Each of these is worth 5 points for a grand total of 10 available for this week.

BAL
NE -7.5

NYG
SF -2.5

Send me your picks by Thursday.

Divsional Round Review

2012-01-16T12:12:00.000-06:00

Well, that was fun. The Packer fun facts are everywhere today...some of my favs:

- 1st 15-1 team ever to not even MAKE the NFC Championship Game, they truly out did us there.
- Daunte Culpepper has won more playoff games at Lambeau than Aaron Rodgers
- Wisconsin teams can't defend the Hail Mary

G-reg made a good point, they will have plenty of time on their hands to keep making more commercials.

What a pathetic performance...it was glorious. Rodgers looked rusty and inaccurate, the WR's kept dropping balls, the back kept fumbling, and the defense played...well, they played like the defense has all year in GB. The clever comebacks are coming from the loyal Packer-backers..."I didn't see the Vikings even in the playoffs." Ouch, that hurts. The point isn't a GB vs. MN thing, it's more of a I-HATE-MY-RIVALS thing and want them to fail at all costs and I enjoy their misery when they do fail because they all take this whole thing so much more seriously than any normal person should. That's why this is fun.

Anyway, moving on from the most recent Sconny collapse (see Brew Crew and Vadgers), it was a pretty decent week in the Football Challenge.

Here are the total post-season standings as of today:

POST-SEASON W

JR 50

CP 44

TN 43

GT 43

AW 41

MC 40

MT 40

SS 39

GR 37

RO 37

MR 36

MH 35

LW 33

JG 29

MO 27

JH 26

MS 0

I went 4-0 again, as did BOMB. Nobody put down an 0'fer, but a lot of 1-3's this week. But only 20 points of the 50 available in the NFL playoffs have passed, so there's still time.

This week's 2 lines will be sent out tomorrow.

Good Luck!!

NFL Playoff Picks - Divisional Round

2012-01-12T14:54:00.000-06:00

Week 2 of the NFL Playoffs are upon us. I'm not sure how you guys feel, but the games this week seemed brutally tough to pick. We are at a 9-7 split in all 4 games.

NO at SF (+3.5)
9 on NO, only 7 on SF (JR,AW,GR,TN,CP,LW,MO).
This was the toughest game of the week for me to pick. On the one hand you have the Saints and their crazy streak of scoring 40+ in 4 straight games and covering their last 9 in a row. They are playing better than anyone right now, and I thought there was no way I would bet against this team this week. However, every bit of research and digging I did led me toward the 49ers rather than NO. The only real reason I had for picking NO is because they are hot and I think they are the best team...not real scientific. Why SF? Lots of reasons...1)NO on the road on grass is not nearly the same club as NO on turf or on turf at home. 2) Defense wins titles...picking the better defense always seems to be a safe play in the playoffs, SF is far superior on D to NO. 3)Turnovers...SF is a +2.2 TO per game this year while NO is actually a -.5 per game. Do you know in the last 3 years how many teams with a negative TO margin made it past round 2...NONE. 4) The whole world is discounting SF, they went 13-3 and are getting 3.5 at home. A home dog in this round is EXTREMELY rare, and no doubt it will be a motivator. 72% of all bets are picking the Saints right now...a % that high qualifies the 49ers for the "nobody believes in us" status, which is a dangerous thing as a home dog. And since the spread usually doesn't come into play in these games, I'll call for an outright W for the 49ers.
CALL: SF wins 20-17...at least 4 Akers FG's make the difference.

DEN at NE (-13.5)
9 on DEN and 7 on NE (JR,AW,SS,RO,TN,GT,JH)
This was the easiest pick of the weekend for me. You have Tebow in off of a perfect storm, miracle type win...and then you have the best coach/QB combo in the game. Giving 13.5 in a playoff game is not ideal, but I think it will be a slam dunk. Why NE? 1)DEN coming in off of that big win as a big dog reminds me a lot of SEA last year after beating NO then flopping against the Bears. They have already done more than was expected, so getting that kind of juice going again this week is unlikely...and you are not at home and you are playing a rested, healthy, better team than PIT. 2)Turnovers. The only other negative TO team in the final 8 is DEN, while the Pats are +1.6/game. A huge difference. The way NE scores will likely force DEN to open it up if they get behind early, then the turnover issues will come into play. 3) NE is so due for a good playoff win. They have really struggled the last couple of years in the playoffs, so a lot of frustration will be coming out this week. 4) Belichick game planning to stop Tebow...I know the Pats D is not outstanding, but he'll come up with enough offense and intricate schemes on D to make Jesus struggle a lot in this one. The bottom line is DEN has NO CHANCE to win this game outright...yep, 0% chance. So if that's the case you have to take the home fav.
CALL: NE 38-10.

HOU at BAL (-7.5)
9 on HOU and 7 on BAL (MR,MH,SS,RO,TN,LW,JH)

I went with a rookie QB on the road in the playoffs in this one. In my mind, these 2 are pretty much the same team. Average to below average QB, great running games, big play WR's, and great defenses. I just feel like this has low scoring nail biter written all over it this weekend. Neither team trusts their QB enough to throw it 40 times, so there should be a heavy dose of conservative running attacks and safe TE and short WR passes. A lot of you have mentioned that you chose Ravens because of Yates being on the other side...well, I don't think Joe Flacco is actually that much of an upgrade from TJ. Both defenses are well above average and will likely cancel each other out. So the winner comes down to who makes the plays on offense. HOU's offense actually outperformed BAL by quite a large margin this year in YPP (5.8 vs. 5.3)(adjusted for HOU road and BAL home). I think they are more fearless and have more of a big play threat at this point, which makes them dangerous. The Ravens have not covered large lines all year (1-6 ATS as fav of more than 7). I think that's because they simply don't have the offensive ability to beat people by large margins. The only thing that could doom the Texans in this one is if the Ravens get a couple of D/SPT TD's, then a BAL cover is likely. But I am expecting a grinder of a game where the team that makes the first big play and least mistakes will take over and win.
CALL: HOU wins and covers 13-10.

NYG at GB (-7.5)
9 on NYG and 7 on GB (JG,SS,MT,CP,LW,JH,MO)

This was another tough one for me. My numbers are saying GB wins a close one, so I played it like that by taking NYG, but I really don't have any idea what to expect. The major factors in my favor are 1)NYG are playing extremely well. 2) NYG have a far superior D and pass rush. 3)NYG have enough offense to keep up with GB and could make it a horse race. I'm scared that the Packers have kind of been under the radar for the last couple of weeks. And I'm scared that almost 70% of the bets have come in on NYG. The Pack will be rested, but they have some concerning injuries along the OL that might play into my favor with the fierce NYG pass rush. GB lives off of turnovers on D, Eli is typically very strong in the playoffs but he's been known on occasion to have issues throwing to the wrong color. I think it's in the NYG best interest to run the hell out of it when possible. The more the GB offense is on the bench, the better the chance you have to win. When NYG nearly beat them in the regular season, they were far from full strength on offense with really only 1 of their big 3 WR's healthy. That is not the case any more, so I think they will be able to match GB's explosiveness on offense. The NYG defensive injuries don't concern me, because honestly they won't really stop the Pack a lot even if they are 100% healthy. It will be a shootout, because that's what GB has been playing in all year long. I think it comes down to the wire, and I hope I'm wrong, but I think GB eeks it out.
CALL: GB wins, NYG cover...38-31.

It should be a great weekend of football to watch. Good luck to everyone!!

Need Picks From...

2012-01-12T09:48:00.000-06:00

ROE
CORCORAN
OLSON
M.THOMAS
LUKE W.
OGE

Please send them over today.

Thanks.

Also great response to VEGAS TRIP 2012 - looks like it's going to be more than 4 guys this year based on early polling results. Good Stuff.

Vegas Trip 2012

2012-01-11T14:05:00.000-06:00

Hey Fellas -

Since the season is winding down and I've gotten a couple of inquiries on this already, I figured I would throw out some Vegas Trip 2012 details so you can start planning and saving for the biggest and best weekend of the year.

DATE: OCT 19 (FRI), 20th, 21st...back on 22nd (MON)

WHERE: Last year we stayed at Harrah's and gambled at the book at the Mirage...expecting a similar plan this year.

COST: The trip itself (room + flight) is about $500-$600 usually. Beyond that, you'll want to bring a bundle of gambling $$$ for all our winners we'll spot on the big board.

I usually book the trip in the early to mid Summer time. We'll fly out on Friday and return on Monday, so those are the 2 days you'll probably want to take off from work (also Saturday/Sunday if necessary). If you are interested, please let me know as we get into the Spring so I can have a complete list and know how many room we need for this year. We typically go with 4, but the more the merrier...anyone who is interested is welcome. For most of us, the weekend consists of tons of booze and sitting at the sports book until they run out of games each night and then moving our diminishing skills over to the pai gow tables or anything else that could take our money. Not a lot of clubs or shows, we hit the sportsbook hard and then find something else to do when the games are over.

This year, we are moving it back to the MEA week to accomodate my partner in crime, the only other guy who hasn't missed a year yet, the infamous JG. It also works out well because our favorite squad just happens to be playing on the road at a certain rival known as the Vadgers that weekend...oh god, I can see the carnage already. We better hope it's an 11am kickoff so we'll still be able to see it when we rush the field to take the axe!

Anyway, it's the greatest time ever if you enjoy booze, sports, and gambling. So start planning now and mark your calendars. I have a feeling this will be discussed about 45 times in the next 6 months before booking, but I just wanted to throw out the reminder and the details so anyone who wants to join in has that opportunity.

Thanks.

Divisional Playoff Lines + Bowl Champ!

2012-01-10T10:07:00.000-06:00

First - here are the 4 lines for this weekend. Please send me your 4 picks by Noon Thursday. Each game this week is worth 3 points.

NO
SF 3.5

DEN
NE -13.5

HOU
BAL -7.5

NYG
GB -7.5

Next, wow what a game last night. LSU gets blanked and can't even get over 100 yards of offense. Not exactly the thriller we were expecting/hoping for, but it's officially off-season time for College Football...sad.

Here are your final Bowl Standings:

BOWLS W
SS 32
CP 32
GT 32
JR 30
MT 29
MH 28
TN 28
MR 27
GR 26
MC 26
LW 26
AW 25
RO 25
JH 21
JG 20
MO 17
MS 0

SS won the 3 way tie breaker by winning 4 of 5 BCS games...so another $100 to Steve...congrats, nice work. Now these scores will carry over and be added to your total playoff score to come up with one number. Here's where those standings sit after last night...

POST-SEASON W
JR 38
CP 38
MT 37
SS 36
MC 34
TN 34
GT 34
MR 33
MH 32
RO 31
LW 30
AW 29
GR 28
JG 26
JH 23
MO 21
MS 0

There are still 42 possible points that can be earned, so nobody should be giving up hope quite yet.

Send me your picks - good luck!!

Championship Monday

2012-01-09T10:01:00.000-06:00

The big one is tonight, and the Bowl Champion crown is on the line.

BOWLS W
CP 32
SS 29
MT 29
GT 29
JR 27
GR 26
LW 26
AW 25
MH 25
TN 25
MR 24
MC 23
RO 22
JH 21
JG 20
MO 17
MS 0

It's a 3 point game tonight, and CP has a 3 point lead. However, as I mentioned last week, an ALA cover would give SS a 4/5 in BCS picks which would give him the tiebreaker over CP and GT who would each only have 3/5 on BCS picks. So it's pretty simple tonight...ALA = STEVE, again...LSU = COLE. But these 3 points are big for everyone, because it all counts toward you total post-season number.

LSU vs. ALA (+1)
We saw this game 2 months ago, but I have a feeling tonight will be a lot different. I think both teams came out and played tight last time and tried not to make that critical mistake. I feel like with the ample time to preapare (40 days!!) both offenses will find a couple of wrinkles that will be more effective this time around. Defensively, I'll call it a wash. They are the 2 most elite D's in the country so I really can't pick an advantage one way or the other there...although I like LSU's secondary and ALA's front 7 if I had to pick. QB play and special teams are probably going to decide this thing in my opinion. I'm not a big believer in Jordan Jefferson, but I think he might make a special play or 2 tonight that could be the difference just because he is an athlete and can make things happen with his legs. He's also more likely to make the stuipid pick 6 that loses the game...but I think his play will impact the results more than McCarron. ALA will likely go with their steady dose of pound pound pound and toss in the occasional play action and trickeration. I feel like LSU has the edge on SPT as well as they have more dynamic return men and the Grass Eater always seems to pull a blocked punt/fake FG type play out in these big games. My pick is ALA simply because I think overall they are a better team, statistically they are a better team, and coaching wise they are a better team. But LSU has had that luck factor and big play ability all season long, why would it stop now?

CALL: BAMA 19 LSU 16

BAMA lovers = JR, MR, MH, MC, SS, RO, TN, GT - 8 guys on each side...truly a toss up.

Hope you're all able to watch tonight. I'm gathering with the neighborhood gang, who I watched the first LSU-ALA game with back in NOV. That night ended with over 2 liter of Crown cashed out, a case of beer, and for some reason a bottle of Almond Champagne...not sure what happenend there. Expecting more of the same this evening. It's the last NCAA game we'll get for 8 months so enjoy it!!

NFL PLAYOFFS

3 guys rode the 4 home teams to a perfect start in the NFL playoffs...JR, MC, MT are all sitting with 8 points after the first weekend. 12 points are available next weekend with each game being worth 3. There is no payout for NFL only, but it will be added to your Bowl Total to determine the overall post-season champ. Here are those standings with 1 Bowl game left and 7 playoff games left:

POST-SEASON W
CP 38
MT 37
JR 35
SS 33
MC 31
TN 31
GT 31
MR 30
LW 30
AW 29
MH 29
GR 28
RO 28
JG 26
JH 23
MO 21
MS 0

47 points still on the line, so I don't think anyone is officially out yet. The lines for the divisional games will be sent tomorrow.

NFL Playoff Picks & Weekend Bowl Picks

2012-01-06T09:00:00.000-06:00

Wildcard weekend start tomorrow, so here are the picks for the weekend:

2 points for each game

CIN at HOU (-3)
5 on CIN (MR, GR, SS, GT, JH)...11 of us on HOU. This was a tough one, but the difference for me was HOU getting healthy (Johnson back at WR) and their defense. I've been a believer in the HOU D all season and playing their 1st ever playoff game at home will surely have everyone ready to go. CIN is a decent little club that actually looks a lot like HOU, but the way they backed their way into the playoffs doesn't give me very good vibes.
CALL: HOU WINS 23-17.

DET at NO (-11)
Split 8-8 on this one. 8 Kitty backers are as follows: JG, AW, RO, TN, GT, CP, LW, MO. Obviously, I hate giving this many points to a team that can score like DET, but nobody is playing like NO right now. If NO was on the road I would be scared, but in the Katrina Shelter they are almost unbeatable. They say you should only take the dog if you think they can win outright...well, I don't.
CALL: NO WINS 41-28.

ATL at NYG (-3)
This was the toughest pick of the week for me. It ended up being very lopsided for FC purposes with only 4 on ATL (GR, MH, JH, MO). What led me to take NYG was a couple of things. 1)Matt Ryan vs. Eli...give me Eli every day of the week. Ryan has not played a quality playoff game yet in his career home or road. 2) ATL on the road in the NY cold will not be nearly the team they are at home. I'm scared because every time I think the Giant have it together they flop and lose, but for some reason I feel like the playoff game will be different. If the NYG win, I feel like it sets up 2 really good games in the NFC next week with all 3 lower seeds having a chance against GB...and that's what I'm pulling for!
CALL: NYG 27-20.

PIT at DEN (+8)
Pretty even split here as well with 7 on PIT and 9 on TEBOW. PIT backers include AW, GR, MH, SS, GT, LW, JH. For me, this was the easiest pick of the week. I like DEN for a lot of reasons...1)PIT is banged up and doesn't score well enough to cover large lines like this. 2)Nobody is giving DEN a chance after the horrible end to the season, a large home dog who nobody is giving a chance...that's my kind of pick (SEA in 2011). I think this will be extremely low scoring and a really close game.
CALL: PIT 10-9.

Not real creative for me this week, picking the 4 home teams to cover and the 4 favorites to win outright. I'm not expecting a 4-0, but the numbers and the circumstances point me in this direction so we'll see what happens.

BOWL GAMES

I gave you the winnings scenarios yesterday, but here are how the picks shake out for the next few Bowl Game this weekend. Remember, these games are just as important as the Playoff games because all accumulated points go into the same bucket to determine the overall Post-Season Champ ($250).

KST vs. ARK (-7.5)
I really liked KST earlier on this one, but I ended up going with ARK. Most of you did the same thing as only 4 guys are on KST in this 2-pt game. JG, AW, RO, MO are backing old Bill Snyder and the Cats tonight. KST has thrived in the underdog role all year, but ARK isn't like the dregs of the B12. I think the Hogs out-athlete them and cover this number easily. Some extremely large cash came in yesterday on ARK that moved the line a full 2 pts from -7.5 to -9.5, so someone else must like them as well!

SMU vs. PITT (-5.5)
SMU has been a disappointment this year, and PITT has the revolving door at head coach. We have only 5 Mustang believers (MR, AW, MC, CP, MO). I took PITT, but if I bet it today I would take SMU. PITT just has so much turmoil with another coach abruptly leaving I can't see them getting up for this one. SMU can score a lot of points, so an unmotivated D could really get torched by them.

ARKST vs. NILL (+1)
Only 5 ARKST backer, and I am one of those. MR, TN, MT, LW join me on this one. I thin their D is far superior to NILL, which in my mind gives them a big edge. ARKST is actually a really good team, but the only tough part is that they lost their coach between the end of the season and the bowl game. But I think this team will be ready to handle the potent NILL attack, and anyone who watched NILL on a TUES/WED/THUR game this year knows that they will probably give up 50 without blinking.

We'll save the Title Game for Monday.

Good Luck to everyone this weekend!!

Bowl Update - Thursday + Need Playoff Picks

2012-01-05T09:54:00.000-06:00

Well I guess the 3.5 really didn't come into play last night! Wow, what a beatdown. Since most were on CLEM, the WV win changed the look of the standings quite a bit:

BOWLS W
CP 28
MT 27
SS 26
GT 26
JR 25
LW 24
AW 23
GR 23
TN 23
MH 22
MR 21
RO 21
JG 19
MC 19
JH 18
MO 15
MS 0

CP is the current leader by a point over MT and by 2 over SS and GT. Here are some scenarios:

CP: ARK, SMU, NILL, LSU
MT: ARK, PITT, ARKST, LSU
SS: ARK, PITT, NILL, ALA
GT: ARK, PITT, NILL, ALA

SS and GT will remain tied throughout with the exact same picks left. The tiebreakers are as follows: 1)Most overall games correct, 2)Most BCS games correct. If those are both even, we'll call it a draw and split the pot...in the case of SS vs. GT they both have 19 games won, but SS has one more BCS victory so he would win the tiebreaker.

CP is one up on MT and they are different on both 1 point games...Cole needs 1 of these to beat Mike, if PITT/ARKST cover then MT beats CP. SS is the only other one with a shot at the crown. An ALA,PITT,NILL cover brings the Bowl Title to Steve. Steve would also win via tiebreaker with just an ALA cover, which would put him ahead of MT and tied with CP even if SMU covers. Tiebreaker would be = in total wins, but SS would win by having more BCS wins. So for CP and MT to have a shot they need LSU to cover and MT also needs PITT and ARKST to cover.

In summary, ARK games is meaningless for determining the Bowl Champ.
1. SMU cover = MT eliminated, PITT cover = all 3 alive
2. ARKST cover = CP eliminated(w/PITT cover), NILL cover = MT eliminated
3. ALA cover = SS wins via tiebreak, LSU cover = CP/MT win

That's it in a nutshell. Every game will mean something going forward.

NEED PICKS FROM...

ROE
BOMB
GREG
CORCORAN
STEVE
TAIT
M.THOMAS
LUKE
HAMMER
OGE

Please send them over today so we're set for Saturday and Sunday's games.

Thanks.

Bowl Update - Wednesday

2012-01-04T10:38:00.000-06:00

Another 1/2 point decision in a BCS game...greatest Bowl Season Ever!?!?

Tonight we have the 4th installment, and based on the line we could see another 1/2 point decision.

Here are the current standings:

BOWLS W
MT 27
GT 26
CP 25
AW 23
GR 23
SS 23
TN 23
JR 22
MH 22
MR 21
RO 21
LW 21
JG 19
MC 19
JH 18
MO 15
MS 0

Holy horse race Batman! With 10 possible points left, we have 9 guys within 5 points of the lead.

Another big 3 point game tonight...

WV vs. CLEM (-3.5)
Only 4 of us on WV, I am one of those. SS, CP, LW are joining me in rooting for the couch burners tonight. I think it will be close, WV has the defensive edge, and they just need their O to keep up with CLEM. I give the QB edge to CLEM, but the D and coaching edge to WV. I'm hoping for OT, +3.5 is almost a guarantee in OT...right? We'll see tonight.

Quick side note on the Vadgers Rose Bowl dreams being squashed again. I've read so many things and heard so many people say over the last couple of days that it's so pathetic that MN fans are celebrating the WIS loss. Really? I cheer for WIS and IOWA to lose every week, so why would it be any different in a Bowl Game? It's a rivalry...it's fueled on dislike for the other team. My lovely wife, who just this year has discovered her evil Becky/Hogeye taunting side, sent a simple text to 1 of only about 2 or 3 Vadger fans that I call a friend. She simply said "Quack, Quack" after the spike with no time left. Apparently, it was not appreciated as his wife, who works with Anna, said he came upstairs and said..."tell your Anna to go F*ck Off!" So now I ask, why do you think we continue to mock and ridicule you Vadger/Hogeye fans? Because it's too easy and you can't handle it...that's why. Obviously, both of your teams are better than mine right now, great I'm fine with that. But to get so angry over a little jab after a tough game seems ridiculous. Am I shocked...No. Vadger fans (note he's only been a fan since he went to school there so not an actual lifer fan...a.k.a...he's liked them since they've been good) have been living on such a high and mighty perch for the last few years that I think they deserve everything that is coming to them. I told her to send him a quick note last night asking if he wanted to borrow my copies of IOWA beating WIS and Sparty beating WIS in hoops both in Madison. She declined, so I guess she is not at the max level of Gopher fandom quite yet, but she's off to a great start this year! His excuse apparently was he was having beers...k. I'm as passionate about football as anyone, but freaking out and screaming at your "friends" because they took advantage of an opportunity to take a shot at your club is really not cool. Clearly, he can't handle a rivalry if he's not coming out ahead, which is sad. Maybe he just knows this was the last shot for a while with no Superman free agent QB's coming to town, an OC and OL coach that are leaving, and Buckeye Nation likely to grow into the strongest B1G team year in and year out. Greatest Vadger team I've seen...and they could only go 9-3. Maybe a couple of 4-8's will bring that whole crew back to reality...the hoops team staring a 1-4 B1G start in the face will certainly help start the slide!

Wildcard Playoff Lines

2012-01-03T10:10:00.000-06:00

Here are the lines for opening weekend of the NFL Playoffs. The Playoffs in total are worth 50 points (same as the Bowl Season). The Wildcard games are worth 2 points each, Division Rounds are worth 3 points each, Championship Games are 5 points each, and the Super Bowl is worth 10 and there will also be 10 prop bets worth 1 point each for Super Bowl week.

Here are the Wildcard Lines - send me your pick in each of these games this week:

CIN
HOU -3

DET
NO -11

ATL
NYG -3

PIT
DEN 8

Good Luck!!

Bowl Update

2012-01-03T09:51:00.000-06:00

Crazy set of games yesterday with each 3 pt. game being decided by 1/2 of a point.

CURRENT STANDINGS
BOWLS W
GT 26
MT 24
SS 23
MH 22
CP 22
RO 21
AW 20
GR 20
TN 20
JR 19
JG 19
MC 19
MR 18
LW 18
JH 18
MO 15
MS 0

George and Mike Thomas sit at the top, but we still have 13 possible points left.

It starts tonight with a 3 point game between MICH (-2.5) and VT. We are split 8-8 on this one. GT is on VT, MT is on MICH. Other MICH backers include: JR, AW, GR, TN, CP, LW.

Remember, just because you might not win the Bowl Challenge, you still want to accumulate as many points as you can because the Bowl total will be added to your NFL Playoff total to determine the overall Post-Season winner. At this point, it sure is looking like it will come down to the ALA-LSU game, which we are split 8-8 on as well. After tonight, we have 5 games left, and besides the ALA-LSU we have decided favorites in the rest by 12-4 or 11-5 margins. With this many games left the scenarios are too many to count, but by the weekend I should be able to have something worked out.

NFL Playoff Lines coming shortly...

Regular Season Final Standings and Bowl Game Update

2012-01-02T08:39:00.000-06:00

The NYG handled DAL last night and kept it at a total of only 45, so GR took home the $200 for the week 18 tiebreaker. With the DAL loss, CP also missed out on a potential 2nd place tie and TN took home the $100 for 2nd place on the season. Here are the final standings for the entire regular season:

2011 SEASON W L %
SS 137 113 54.8%
TN 136 114 54.4%
CP 134 116 53.6%
GR 134 116 53.6%
JH 134 116 53.6%
MR 133 117 53.2%
MT 128 122 51.2%
MO 125 125 50.0%
MH 123 127 49.2%
RO 123 127 49.2%
GT 123 127 49.2%
JG 123 127 49.2%
JR 122 128 48.8%
AW 122 128 48.8%
LW 118 132 47.2%
MC 116 134 46.4%
MS 63 187 25.2%

We hit 50.8% for the year (not including MS).

$$$ payouts for the regular season look like this:

SS-$350
GR-$200
TN-$150
MH-$100
MR-$100
GT-$100
MS-$100
MO-$50
JR-$50
MT-$50
AW-$50
JH-$50

Shutout for the regular season: RO, CP, LW, MC, JG

But that's over, so let's move on to the Post-Season Challenge, where an additonal $350 is up fro grabs ($250 for overall 1st, $100 for Bowl Game Champ).

BOWL STANDINGS
BOWLS W
MH 15
SS 15
RO 15
MR 14
AW 14
TN 14
LW 14
GT 14
GR 13
CP 13
MT 13
JH 13
JR 12
MC 12
JG 11
MO 11
MS 0

This is through 23 games and 23 possible points. 14 points are available today in the 6 games that are on tap. Another 13 points will be available for the next week. Only 2 guys under .500 right now, and that's only by 1 game...so pretty strong showing so far, but can we do it for the big games that start today?

STAN-OKST (-3.5) 3 point game
4 on STAN and 12 on OKST, including me. SS is on STAN, he's one of the co-leaders. I haven't been on the STAN bandwagon all year, and I love OKST this year...so I didn't see any reason to change now. STAN backers include JG, SS, GT, JH.

WIS-ORE (-6.5) 3 point game
7 on Becky, 9 on DUCKS. 2 of the leaders on DUCKS and 1 on Vadgers. I have DUCKS, but the more I think about it the more I think 6.5 is too high. Oh well, at least I can to cheer for the right side! QUACK!! Becky lovers are MR, AW, RO, TN, LW, JH, MO.

OHIOST-FLA (-2) 2 point game
10 on Buckeyes, 6 on Gators. I'm on OHIOST, FLA is just too much of a wreck on offense for me to think they have a prayer of scoring against the Bucks. I'm sure Urban's provided as many helpful hints as he could about his old club going into this one as well. I think Buckeyes start the momentum train rolling into next year with an easy win today. FLA supporters include AW, MC, RO, MT, GT, LW.

NEB-SC (-1.5) 2 point game
Even split of 8 and 8 on this one. Honestly, this looks like the easiest pick on the board for me. I have not been impressed with team Corn all year, and that SC defense might not allow any points today. Not that SC has a great offense, but I don't think they'll struggle at all today in a low scoring easy win.

MSU-GEO (-4) 2 point game
12 on Sparty and only 4 on GEO. GEO supporters include MR, GR, MC, LW. I really like Sparty here too. I think they've made the jump from annually being a talented disappointment to becoming a team that can win big games and will get another one today.

PSU-HOU (-5) 2 point game
No clue what will happen on this one. We have 6 on PSU and 10 on HOU. I'm on PSU with JG, MC, SS, JH, MO. I guess it comes down to defense for me, like it usually does. However, I'm not sure if PSU will come out inspired or just bored and ready to move from this year into 2012. HOU lost their coach as well, so I feel like this could be a lop-sided one either way.

After today, we have 1 game a day (except THUR) for the next week, so it will be an interesting finish. It's seaparation Monday, so good luck to everyone.

Week 18 Pre-SNF Update

2012-01-01T18:59:00.000-06:00

Some wild ones today, but here's the latest look:

WEEK 18
Week 18 W L %
GR 6 3 66.7%
JH 6 3 66.7%
CP 5 4 55.6%
GT 5 4 55.6%
JR 4 5 44.4%
JG 4 5 44.4%
MR 4 5 44.4%
AW 4 5 44.4%
SS 4 5 44.4%
TN 3 6 33.3%
MS 3 6 33.3%
MC 3 7 30.0%
LW 3 7 30.0%
MH 2 7 22.2%
RO 2 7 22.2%
MO 2 7 22.2%
MT 2 7 22.2%

So here's the deal, GR and JH both have NYG...so a NYG cover = a tie between those 2 that would come down to the tiebreaker. GR has 44, JH has 56. GT also has NYG, so he can not catch the leaders. However, if DAL cover the +2.5 then CP would create a 3 way tie for the win for Week 18 and the tiebreaker numbers are as follows:

GR-44
JH-56
CP-41

It's going to be a crazy finish for week 18.

As for the overall title, we have declared a champion. Steve Schuft, wihtout winning a single week on his own this year, is your overall Champ. He has a 1 game lead on TN, and they both have NYG tonight...so congrats to Steve. Tait will either take 2nd all to himself, or a DAL cover would force a 2nd place overall split between Tait and Cole. GR and JH are both a game behind Cole, and MR is a game behind them.

So there you go - tonight will wrap up the regular season of the Football Challenge. I'll throw out a Bowl Update with picks and standings for tomorrow before the games start.

It sounds like after 6+ hours of football today, I'm being strong armed into a viewing of the "Little Rascals" tonight over DAL-NYG, so I'll be a phone follower.

Good Luck to everyone with a dog left in the fight!! Congrats again to Steve on his 54.4% season and $350 payday!!

Week 18 Update through 12pm Games

2012-01-01T15:57:00.000-06:00

Here's the weekly stats through the 12pm games:

Wk 18 W L %
GR 4 1 80.0%
CP 3 2 60.0%
GT 4 3 57.1%
JH 4 3 57.1%
JG 3 3 50.0%
MR 3 3 50.0%
AW 2 3 40.0%
MS 2 3 40.0%
MC 3 5 37.5%
LW 3 5 37.5%
SS 2 4 33.3%
RO 2 4 33.3%
MO 2 5 28.6%
JR 1 3 25.0%
MT 1 5 16.7%
TN 1 6 14.3%
MH 0 5 0.0%

38.8% for the early games...wow, that's not good. We've also got quite a race going for the overall title right now:

YTD W
SS 134
TN 133
CP 132
MR 131
GR 131
JH 131
MT 126
MO 124
RO 122
JG 122
MH 121
GT 121
AW 119
LW 118
JR 118
MC 116
MS 62

SS has 4 games left, TN has 3 games left, CP has 5 left, MR has 4 left, GR has 5 left.

More updates coming later - I'll try and figure out some scenarios for both Week 18 and the Overall.

Saturday Update

2011-12-31T14:07:00.000-06:00

After an eventful Friday, I figured I'd throw out a quick look at the standings...

BOWL W
GR 13
SS 13
TN 13
MR 12
CP 12
AW 11
MH 11
LW 11
MT 11
GT 11
JH 11
JG 10
RO 10
JR 9
MC 9
MO 9

Nobody went 4-0 or 0-4 yesterday, so not a lot of change on the leaderboard.

Today's slate, while not real exciting, could make for some good games. It's the final day of 1 point games before it really starts to get serious.

BTW - if any of you Aggie backers for this game on right now are shocked by this you shouldn't be. You could not script this game any better than this. Aggies open a huge lead (they've lead by double digits in 12 of their 13 games this year!) and blown about 1/2 of those. NW is not real good this year, but they have a quirky offense and always seem to find a way to sneak into games late...especially in bowl games. So if you're shocked that this went from 30-7 to 30-22 with A&M hoping just to hold on and win at this point, then you haven't been paying attention. The cover could still go either way, but that why you always have to take a look at NW getting +XX.

Good Luck - enjoy the next 3 days!!

Week 18 Preview & NYE Bowls

2011-12-30T09:11:00.000-06:00

BAY just scored 3 more times while I turned my computer on. I hope you stayed up late and watched the Arena Bowl last night like I did. The lack of defense by those 2 teams was comical. Great offenses, yes...but seriously, anything less than 10 yards was like a loss for those teams last night. 17 TDs!! Ugly.

Alright. On to the important matters...$200 on the line in Week 18 + the total overall championship for the regular season. It could be a stressful Sunday.

PICKS
JR: MIA CAR HOU MIN BAL ATL KC OAK SEA NYG
JG: BAL SEA NYJ NO SF IND NE CHI DEN DAL
MR: BAL SEA NYJ SF NE CHI NYG PHI TEN PIT
AW: BAL NYJ CHI NYG DEN HOU DET JAC SD ARI
GR: BAL CHI NYG DEN NE PHI TEN NO ATL OAK
MH: BAL DEN HOU SD SEA IND DAL CAR MIN WAS
MC: HOU CAR WAS CHI JAC SF PIT MIA BUF TB
SS: JAC SF PIT BAL SD MIN NYG TEN NO DET
RO: JAC MIN NYG HOU CAR TB DEN SEA PHI NYJ
TN: MIN NYG CAR SF BAL TEN DET IND NE KC
MT: NYG CAR IND KC HOU TB WAS BUF ARI STL
GT: NYG IND BUF STL BAL DEN PHI NYJ NO GB
MS: BAL DEN NYJ NO GB HOU TB WAS ARI DAL
CP: HOU DAL IND KC NE SEA SD CHI MIA CIN
LW: IND NE DEN NYJ GB TB PHI CAR MIN SF
JH: NE GB PHI MIN SF HOU SD BAL NO NYG
MO: GB MIN HOU NYG IND NYJ TB CAR STL PIT

I have 42 as my number, still waiting on a number from a couple of guys - many of you sent in picks without a number this week, but I'll give a little leeway on that and let you get the number in by Sunday. I've received 15 numbers so far and NO DUPLICATES...how is that possible? We should have a clear cut winner this week.

Quick thoughts on NFL:

I think MIA beats NYJ. That team just feels like it's done to me. Rexy and his a-hole ways are starting to wear on that group. The defense is getting old and slow and San-Cheese is close to being on his way out. If they somehow sneak into the playoffs they could be dangerous, but I don't think they get there.

STL is +12 at home...DD dogs have not lost ATS at home this year. But I can't with a good conscience pick them to cover this one in a meaningful game for the 49ers. Although they don't score much, I don't think STL scores any.

IND-JAC might be the least watchable football game of the year. IND doesn't really want to win because they need Luck. JAC doesn't really want IND to lose because they don't want to play Luck for the next 12 years. A battle of 2 teams who don't want to win...should be fun.

I like HOU to show up and try to get the mojo going again before playoff time. They need to play a lot better than the last 2 weeks going into the playoffs. I also think they get a large emotional lift with Wade Phillips being back on the sideline. TEN has had all the chances to sneak in, but they just can't get over the hump. HOU ends their dream for sure this weekend.

I've been picking the Purple to win this week for about the last month. I thought it would be their only other win, until the miracle in DC last week. Bears are just done and have nothing to play for at all this week. Not that the Purple have a lot to play for, but I think they want to put up a good performance, win a division game, and win at home. That all counts for something.

BTW - the line we are using on the PIT-CLE line is PIT -7...most of us stayed away, but we have a few takers.

I'm one of the 2 on ATL this week to cover -14 on TB. I really think TB has just thrown the towel in on this season and ATL is looking to crush at home and get some momentum rolling into the playoffs. Especially if GB beats DET.

I took Orton in revenge mode over Tebow. I'm sure the NFL and Jesus will find a way to make Timmy TD win this thing, but DEN can't cover 3...at best they'll push it. Tebow wins by 1 as he kicks a 50 yard FG because their kicker is hurt.

I'm also only 1 of 2 on OAK. I think they got something rolling last week with the big OT win over KC. SD is eliminated, and we know how Norv's teams play without motivation...they don't.

Still riding the SEA train, they should have probably won last week, and they'll get it done this week. ARI is a smoke and mirrors squad.

Finally, you HAVE to like NYG on MNF. Home field, Romo banged up, rivalry game, crappy conditions...give me NYG all day in this one.

BOWL GAMES

GR and SS are our co-leaders at 11 points. JR, MC, RO, MO pulling up the rear at 7 points...which is still .500 and not bad at all. Everyone is doing pretty well so far. But it's time for some separation this weekend with 4 games today and 5 games tomorrow.

TULSA-BYU (-2.5)
4 on TULSA and 12 on Mormons. Tulsa backers include JR, LW, JH, MO. Why? Well, I don't know. Because I don't think BYU is very good I guess.

RUT-ISU (+1.5)
4 on RUT and 12 on ISU. RUT backers include JR, MR, MH, MC...I'm in the minority again. Really like RUT chances in this one, and it's a chance to pick again an Iowa school...no brainer.

WF-MISST (-7)
ZZZZZZ....zzzzzz....zzzzz. 8 guys on each, so it could be a big one, but really does anyone even care about either of these 2? No is the right answer.

IOWA-OK (-14)
6 guys blindly backing team Meth in this one. Their offense is one dimensional and that one dimension is now suspended...so they would be zero dimensional I guess. Honestly, if Stoops and OK give 2 shits about this one and show up at all after the OKST beatdown it should be over by halftime. OK 73 IOWA 5. Blacklisted Iowa backers include JG, AW, GR, MC, MT, GT....boooooo!!!! I'm going to be very excited to watch this one tonight after 20 cocktails. I hope their are some Hogeye fans to chat with at this wedding tonight.

Saturday Games

A&M-NW (+10)
5 on A&M and 11 on NW. Come on man, NW in a bowl game getting huge points...automatic for the people. Aggie fans include: AW, MH, RO, CP, MO.

UTAH-GT (-3.5)
6 on UTES and 10 on Tech. I went with UTAH simply for the "bet against the triple option with time to prepare for it" angle, which has worked the last few years. UTES fans include JR, MH, MC, RO, MT, GT.

UCLA-ILL (-2.5)
Probably the worst game of the entire bowl season. No interest from either side, 2 new coaches waiting to take over, 2 interims just putting in minimal time to close this thing out, 2 fan bases that don't care about this game at all. Fun. But it could be a big one for Bowl Pool impact as we have a good split with 9 on UCLA and 7 on ILL. I went with the fightin' Zookers one last time. JR, MR, AW, MC, SS, RO, LW are on Zook-less Zookers.

CIN-VAN (-2.5)
Early on this one seemed easy...VANDY no doubt. Excited to be there, CIN QB is hurt, SEC > everyone. But I actually think VAN is getting a little too much love in this one and decided to go with CIN. Collaros is going to play for CIN, which is huge. 7 guys in CIN and 9 on VAN. Bearcat backers include JR, MH, RO, GT, LW, JH, MO.

VIR-AUB (-1.5)
The grand finale of Saturday night. Only 4 on VIR and 12 on AUB. I am once again going against the mighty SEC in this one. I just think the whole AUB program has a funk to it right now...both coordinators are gone and their overall talent level is low this year. VIR is too pumped up to be in this game after a few too many down years in a row. I think they come out and play with AUB and win it in the end in a close one. VIR backers include: JR, GR, CP, MO.

Good Luck gentlemen! It should be a wild couple of days. My Sunday plan is couch, couch, and more couch...so I should be able to throw out updates after the early games and late games so you know where you are at all times. I'll probably provide too many updates as we go with a little running commentary because it's the biggest week of the year as far as weekly prize and overall title being decided on one day. Tons more Bowl Games coming on Monday, so we'll be previewing those as well.

Enjoy the NYE Holiday - Boomer....Sooner.....Boomer....Sooner!!!!!

Need Week 18 Picks from...

2011-12-29T08:18:00.000-06:00

Lots of stragglers for this 18th and final week of the regular season...send them to me today please:

ROE
HEINERT
CORCORAN
STEVE
OLSON
NELSON
M.THOMAS
PEYTON
LUKE W.

Also - please don't forget to include your SNF Total Points pick with your 10 teams for a tie-breaker.

BOWL UPDATE

All 4 of our leaders went 1-1 yesterday to maintain their spot at the top with 9 points. JG, AW, RO, GT, JH all went 2-0 to gain some ground, and nobody went 0-2 yesterday.

Standings
BOWL W
GR 9
SS 9
MT 9
GT 9
TN 8
LW 8
JH 8
MR 7
AW 7
MH 7
MC 7
CP 7
JG 6
RO 6
JR 5
MO 5
MS 0

2 more games today...here's the breakdown:

ND-FSU (-3)
5 on ND, 11 on FSU. 3 of the 4 leaders are on FSU with 1 on ND. I also like FSU - I think their D will contain the Irish offense and ND's ability to turn the ball over will lead to their demise once again.

WASH-BAY (-9)
Only 2 guys on the Huskies tonight. (MC and MT) The rest of us like RG3 and the Bears. It's just really hard not to pick this team right now. They score so many points and have so much mometum going right now. Give me the Bears at -9.

Full NFL Preview and huge Bowl Weekend Preview will be coming either later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Bowl Update

2011-12-28T10:20:00.000-06:00

Lots of 2-0's yesterday, and a couple of 0-2's...JR and RO.

But Bowl season gives you a chance for redemption every day of the week...so here we go again with 2 more games today.

STANDINGS
BOWL W
GR 8
SS 8
MT 8
TN 7
LW 7
GT 7
MR 6
MH 6
MC 6
CP 6
JH 6
AW 5
JR 4
JG 4
RO 4
MO 4
MS 0

TOLEDO vs. AF (+3)MILITARY BOWL
Pretty even split on this one with 9 on AF and 7 on TOL. Our 3 leaders favor TOLEDO 2-1. I'm also going with TOLEDO on this one, I think I pick against AF every year in the bowl games. I think the option game loses it's effectiveness when teams have a month to prepare...see GTECH. TOL has the turnover edge with a comparable defense. They also have an interim coach after their guy left for Illinois, I like the track record of interim 1 game coaches in Bowl Games.

CAL-TEX (-3) HOLIDAY BOWL
The nightcap is the always exciting Holiday Bowl. We have only 4 guys on CAL and 12 on TEX...CAL supporters include MR, GR, MH, MC...all with 6+ points right now. Texas has a far superior defense, which lead me toward them in this one. Offensively, they are challenged, but I think it could be a good game for them to build some optimism and momentum going into 2012 with a young QB and overall a very young offense. We all know CAL and the Pac-10 in general don't believe in defense, so I think TEX, with a big start, has a chance to run CAL out of the building.

STREAKERS

JG has won 3 in a row
JR has lost 3 in a row
MR has won 4 in a row
AW has won 3 in a row
GR has won 7 in a row
MT has won 8 in a row
JH has won 5 in a row

Some nice streaks, and 1 not so nice streak on this list. I've lost 3 straight with dogs, but I'm on 2 favs today! We're only 20% of the way through the Bowl Challenge, so there's still time for a rebound.

Good Luck!

Week 18 Lines - $200

2011-12-27T13:58:00.000-06:00

Here are the lines for the final week of the regular season. Also, one note from the review I sent earlier...
there is no MNF this week, all games are on Sunday so please send me your 10 picks AND your total points selection for the SNF DAL-NYG game that will decide the NFC East.

We are missing one game, PIT at CLE has nothing listed, but I will send it when I have it.

Please get me your 10 picks and SNF Total Points pick by THURSDAY at NOON.

Thanks.

WAS
PHI -10

NYJ
MIA 0

CAR
NO -10.5

DET
GB 3.5

SF
STL 12

IND
JAC -5

BUF
NE -13.5

TEN
HOU 1

CHI
MIN 0

PIT
CLE

BAL
CIN 2.5

TB
ATL -14

KC
DEN -3

SD
OAK -3

SEA
ARI -3

DAL
NYG -2.5

Week 17 Review...yet another Push

2011-12-27T09:57:00.000-06:00

We've been betting NFL exclusively for the last 3 weeks and all 3 have ended in a push, so we'll have one more week to decide this thing. Not only will Week 18 be worth $200, but it will also decide the overall champion. Here are a couple of things to consider for this week:

1) We will use MNF total points as a tiebreaker for the $200 portion of the pool for the weekly prize...so please send me a total points number with your picks for this week.

2) Any ties that happen for the overall crown will be split down the middle. There is a total of $450 for 1st and 2nd place, so a first place tie would just split that pot.

Here are the final results from this week:

Week 17 W L %

SS 8 2 80.0%

LW 8 2 80.0%

GR 7 3 70.0%

AW 6 4 60.0%

CP 6 4 60.0%

MT 6 4 60.0%

JR 5 5 50.0%

JG 5 5 50.0%

RO 5 5 50.0%

TN 5 5 50.0%

GT 5 5 50.0%

MR 4 6 40.0%

MH 4 6 40.0%

MO 4 6 40.0%

JH 4 6 40.0%

MC 3 7 30.0%

MS 0 10 0.0%

We hit an even 50% for the week with MS's 0-10 mark. 53.1% without MS.

YTD W L %

SS 132 108 55.0%

TN 132 108 55.0%

CP 129 111 53.8%

MR 128 112 53.3%

GR 127 113 52.9%

JH 127 113 52.9%

MT 125 115 52.1%

MO 122 118 50.8%

MH 121 119 50.4%

RO 120 120 50.0%

JG 119 121 49.6%

JR 117 123 48.8%

GT 117 123 48.8%

AW 117 123 48.8%

LW 115 125 47.9%

MC 113 127 47.1%

MS 60 180 25.0%

SS and TN are tied for the overall lead going into the final week. CP is 3 back, MR is 4 back, GR/JH are 5 back. While the odds aren't good that you will make up 4-5 games in one week, anything is possible. I'm thinking it's probably a 2 man race right now, but if one or both of them lay a 3-7 then the door could be open.

Final Week 18 lines will be coming today.

BOWL UPDATE

GR 6

SS 6

TN 6

LW 6

MT 6

GT 6

MH 5

MC 5

CP 5

JR 4

MR 4

RO 4

JH 4

AW 3

MO 3

JG 2

MS 0

6-way tie for 1st with 6 points. Here's the list for today:

WMU-PUR (-2.5)
Only 3 guys today on WMU (JR, RO, GT) and 13 on PUR. WMU has a better offense and a bad D, so I'm expecting a shootout.

LOU-NCST (-2.5)
8 on LOU and 8 on NCST...the 6 leaders favor NCST 4 to 2. It sounds like it could be a sloppy mess at this game tonight, so I think that favors a defense/running team like LOU. Plus I haven't been that impressed with NCST all year, so I picked against them.

Good Luck - Week 18 Lines coming soon.

Week 17 MNF Update

2011-12-26T09:50:00.000-06:00

Here's how we sit with one more game to go for the week:

Week 17 W L %

SS 8 1 88.9%

LW 7 2 77.8%

GR 6 3 66.7%

CP 6 3 66.7%

AW 6 4 60.0%

JG 5 4 55.6%

TN 5 4 55.6%

MT 5 4 55.6%

RO 5 5 50.0%

JR 4 5 44.4%

GT 4 5 44.4%

MO 4 6 40.0%

JH 4 6 40.0%

MR 3 6 33.3%

MH 3 6 33.3%

MC 3 6 33.3%

MS 0 10 0.0%

So the $150 is not yet decided because we have a shot at another tie after tonight. SS has posted a stellar 8-1 mark so far this week, but he went with the Dog Falcons on MNF at +7.5, while 2nd place LW is 7-2 and has NO -7.5. So this is the scenario, a Falcons cover, and SS takes the $150, a Saints cover and we move on to a $200 final week 18.

For the overall lead, SS and TN are tied with 132 wins right now, and both have ATL tonight...so these 2 will head into the final week as co-leaders.

In the Bowl Challenge, SS is also in the lead with 6 points - followed by GR/TN/MT/GT/LW with 5 points.

In the only game today JR, SS, MO have NC while the rest of you are on MIZZOU. After today we start really getting into Bowl Season with 2+ games every day this week.

Full standings update coming tomorrow. Good Luck!!

Week 17 Preview

2011-12-23T10:17:00.000-06:00

Picks are in, 8 of you are already 0-1, MT is already 1-0...$150 on the line...here we go:

JR: MIA CLE WAS NYJ CAR KC SD PHI SEA NO

JG: MIA CLE HOU CIN DEN STL NYG TB SF ATL

MR: HOU DEN SF WAS CAR SD PHI NO ARI TEN

AW: HOU DEN SF SD CIN NYG MIN JAC OAK DAL

GR: HOU DEN SF NYG OAK CAR PHI NO DET GB

MH: HOU NYG CAR NO SD MIN ARI TEN KC SEA

MC: HOU SD PHI GB CIN JAC WAS STL TB ATL

SS: PHI JAC ATL CAR SF MIA CLE NYJ BUF PIT

RO: CAR SF CLE NYJ HOU CIN STL KC DET NE

TN: CAR KC PHI ATL MIA SD NYG MIN SEA CHI

MT: KC PHI MIA SD SF CLE NYJ STL NO IND

GT: NO CAR NYG MIN SEA JAC ARI DEN DAL BAL

MS: x x x x x x x x x x

CP: NYG MIN JAC ARI PHI MIA SD STL ATL OAK

LW: NYG MIN PHI OAK NO CAR DEN CLE CIN NE

JH: OAK CIN NE JAC SD STL SF HOU GB TB

MO: OAK JAC SD STL GB MIN ARI MIA SEA BAL

Game Splits
HOU 8 IND 1
MIA 7 NE 3
CLE 6 BAL 2
ARI 5 CIN 6
MIN 7 WAS 3
DEN 6 BUF 1
STL 7 PIT 1
NYG 8 NYJ 4
TB 3 CAR 9
JAC 7 TEN 2
OAK 6 KC 5
SD 10 DET 2
PHI 9 DAL 2
SF 8 SEA 5
CHI 1 GB 4
ATL 5 NO 7

By the way, the GB line we are using is GB -14.

BOWL UPDATE

JR, GR, TN, AND MT have gone on a 2-0 run over the last couple of days in the Bowl Challenge so here are the current leaders:

SS-5
GR-4
TN-4
MT-4
GT-4
LW-4

No games tonight...WTF? But the weekend has us covered with a couple of Bowl Games:

HAWAII BOWL
NEV-SOMISS (-6)
2 on NEV, rest of us on SOMISS. JG and AW are the brave NEV backers. BTW, JG did have a BOISE cover go in his favor last night for the first Bowl win of the season...congrats.

INDEPENDENCE BOWL
NC-MIZZ (-4)
This is a Monday game, and it should be closer than than our X-mas eve battle. We have a large portion on MIZZ (13 guys) and only 3 of us on NC (JR, SS, MO). It's a coin flip, I figured NC would play some motivated ball in the last game for interim coach Everett Withers, who ironically enough is getting tons of praise as a defensive genius who was just hired as DC by Urban at The Ohio State. Many forget that he was brought into the college ranks by the legendary TE coach himself TE Timmy Brew as our DC in 2007...yeah, the year we had maybe the worst defense that college football has ever seen. But apparently that has been wiped clean from the record of one E.Withers, so he's a god now.

Enjoy the Holiday - I will likely send out an update on Saturday once things start to shake out. Good Luck!

Stuff & End of Year Gathering of the Masses

2011-12-21T13:21:00.000-06:00

I've said it be

fore, but I'll say it again...if you don't read Everyday Should Be Saturday, you should. (edsbs.com) I'm stealing a couple things from them, because they are just too hilarious not to share.

#1 FIU's stank-ass QB Wesley Carroll

"Wesley Carroll doesn't have any plans. Maybe he'll try to get on in the UFL. Maybe he'll go roughneck out in Wyoming for a while. Money's good, and the sky and the women are free. Just stay away from Johnny Law and The Man, and things'll be just fine as French wine, cowboy. There's a sailing ship out there called Destiny's Codpiece. It sails tonight from St. Pete. Its destination? Wesley Carroll doesn't know, and doesn't care. Life's about the journey, brah. Now pass him that helmet. No, he doesn't need a scrunchy. Freedom starts with the hair, and ends with the horizon."

Yep. That's the kind of great stuff you get on this sight...put it on your "must read everyday" list right now.

And just for good measure, how about this Jim Mora Jr. mocking...

Oh Jim L. Mora (not a junior; he does not enjoy the bold flavor privileges afforded to people who call-call-call him Junior), you so crazy. Dutiful comrades of the highest calling, Bruins Nation, bring us this gem of a marketing campaign. Imagine it in a dramatic movie trailer voice, if you may: "In a world where fear knows no bounds. Where darkness reigns unopposed and chianti floods the river thames, only one man spare us from the slings and arrows of outrageous boredom. *record scratch* [cue whacky voice] JIM L. MORA! From the people who brought you 'THE FOOTBALL MONOPOLY IN LOS ANGELES IS OFFICIALLY OVER', comes this year's feel good hit of the winter: 'MORE GRIT. MORA FOOTBALL.'"

So let's talk about what this poster does well:

•It is a poster.

•Jim L. Mora is wearing an appropriate polo.

•The Rose Bowl logo adds an element of class as though to signify an impossible dream.

More importantly, let's get to what this poster doesn't do so great:

•The conviction with which Mora holds the football says "I really thought you'd like this officially licensed football for Christmas but I couldn't quite remember if you still liked football or not. Don't worry; there's a gift receipt taped to the ball underneath my hand."

•2012 Season Tickets sound more like judicial sentencing than an incentive to use disposable income.

•UCLA lost the two games pictures in the photo stills by a combined infinity points.

•The only believable character in the whole damn thing is Hailee Steinfeld as Jim L. Mora's quarterback.

•"uclaBruins.com" is a maddening mix of proper capitalization, improper capitalization, and pissing caution to the wind. Seriously: What. The. Hell.

•The complete lack of 'Deal With It' sunglasses.

Fun stuff.

I think it has been decided that the Football Challenge will have the 3rd Annual Gathering of the Masses this March - get this on your calendar now:

MARCH 17th - Saturday (opening weekend of NCAA Hoops Tourney)
Where: BWW in Chanhassen (because lamps at my house aren't safe for this party...BOMB)
What: Prize money will be distributed, and then you will have free reign to repeatedly bet again and again with other members to try and quadruple your winnings on the NCAA hoops games. I'm also working on some other distinguished honors for the gathering, so I really hope everyone can make it. We'll start when they open around 10 or 11am, and finish when they tell us we are finished. I'm going to work on kicking the family out of the house so I have a place to stay for those of you that are in for the long haul with me. Even if you can just swing by for an hour and a whiskey...please make it happen. It's a rare occurance when we can all get together, so I wanted to give you all a ton of notice in hopes that it will work out.

It will be ugly, it will get out of hand, we'll have 1000 wings and JG will probably do the Vodka tour, which is a BWW special...so you don't want to miss it.

MARCH 17 - Chanhassen - BWW - and my place later...that's all you need, so put it on your calendar NOW!

Later Gators.

Wednesday/Thursday Bowls - POINSETTIA & LAS VEGAS

2011-12-21T08:42:00.000-06:00

That was a tough one to watch last night. I kind of had the feeling that I was wrong with FIU from early in the game. The QB combo they tried to roll with was horrendous. MARSH had the special teams edge, and that was a huge difference in my opinion. Oh well, 1-3 for me so far.

SS: 4
GT: 3
CP: 3
LW: 3

These are our leaders right now. JG...0-4...but it's early.

Tonight we have the POINSETTIA BOWL with a large spread.

LT
TCU -10.5

I'm all over LT on this one. This is a pretty even matchup in my mind, so taking the 10.5 was an easy choice for me. I love LT's defense, but their lack of an explosive offense scares me a little bit. I'm not sure that TCU's motivation level will be extremely high after being relegated to this bowl game after another strong season.

Only 4 guys on LT tonight...JR, GR, TN, MT
12 guys on TCU...including the winless JG and undeafted SS...something has to give tonight!

LAS VEGAS BOWL - FRIDAY
This one is a landslide, we have only 2 guys liking ASU at +14 and 14 of us on BOISE. The 2 guys on ASU are MR and CP. I always take BOISE in bowl games, especially in Moore's last game and against an ASU team that quit down the stretch.

Good Luck. Don't forget to send me your picks for this big NFL week. I need them tomorrow before the game starts, but I probably won't get the update out until Friday because we're hosting a big party tomorrow night and I'm off from work all day picking up gifts and food for the weekend. I'm not taking anyone in the THUR game this week.

Week 17 Lines $150 on the Line

2011-12-20T12:20:00.002-06:00

Here we go for literally the biggest week ever in FC history...$150 on the line...get me your picks by NOON Thursday - 10 games.

HOU
IND 7

MIA
NE -12.5

CLE
BAL -14.5

ARI
CIN -4.5

MIN
WAS -7

DEN
BUF 3.5

STL
PIT -16

NYG
NYJ -2.5

TB
CAR -7.5

JAC
TEN -9.5

OAK
KC 0

SD
DET -1.5

PHI
DAL -3.5

SF
SEA 1.5

CHI
GB no line yet

ATL
NO -7.5

Week 16 Review

2011-12-20T09:21:00.000-06:00

A SF win means we had a 4-way tie for 1st last week at 6-4...so we'll push on to Week 17 for $150!

Week 16 W L %
AW 6 4 60.0%
GR 6 4 60.0%
TN 6 4 60.0%
CP 6 4 60.0%
JG 5 5 50.0%
MR 5 5 50.0%
SS 5 5 50.0%
RO 5 5 50.0%
MO 5 5 50.0%
GT 5 5 50.0%
JR 4 6 40.0%
MC 4 6 40.0%
MS 4 6 40.0%
JH 4 6 40.0%
LW 3 7 30.0%
MT 3 7 30.0%
MH 2 8 20.0%

We hit 46% for the week, not great.

YTD W L %
TN 127 103 55.2%
MR 124 106 53.9%
SS 124 106 53.9%
CP 123 107 53.5%
JH 123 107 53.5%
GR 120 110 52.2%
MT 119 111 51.7%
MO 118 112 51.3%
MH 117 113 50.9%
RO 115 115 50.0%
JG 114 116 49.6%
JR 112 118 48.7%
GT 112 118 48.7%
AW 111 119 48.3%
MC 110 120 47.8%
LW 107 123 46.5%
MS 60 170 26.1%

With only 20 picks left over the next 2 weeks it is officially crunch time. TN now has a 3 game lead over MR and SS and a 4 game lead over CP and JH. GR is still hanging around at 7 games back, but it will take a couple of crazy good weeks for him to catch TN.

NFL YTD W L %
MT 64 51 55.7%
JG 64 52 55.2%
JR 57 47 54.8%
TN 47 39 54.7%
JH 52 44 54.2%
MC 53 47 53.0%
MH 47 42 52.8%
SS 50 48 51.0%
AW 55 55 50.0%
RO 51 54 48.6%
MR 41 46 47.1%
CP 41 46 47.1%
GT 57 64 47.1%
GR 45 54 45.5%
LW 61 75 44.9%
MO 40 54 42.6%
MS 28 116 19.4%

We're at 47.7% for the season in the NFL including MS's missed weeks. Without those we are 50.2% .

With a 3 game lead TN needs a couple of solid weeks like he has done for the first 2 NFL only weeks to wrap this thing up...barring a pair of 8 or 9 win weeks from one of the other contenders. It could be an exciting finish. Even if you're not in the running for the overall crown, a $150 week is a quick way to make a poor season look good and end up ahead in this whole deal.

BOWL GAMES fire back up tonight as well. FIU -4.5 against MARSHALL. We have 9 guys on FIU and 7 on Marshall, a very even split. I'm on FIU and this is one of my best bets of the whole bowl season. They have a better offense, a better defense, a better turnover ratio, and are playing in their home state...what's not to like. Our 2 leaders at 3 pts (SS & GT) are split on this one with SS on MARSH and GT on FIU, so one of you will be the overall leader at 4-0 after tonight.

Week 17 lines will be coming out today.

Monday Update

2011-12-19T09:34:00.000-06:00

Thanks for showing up Ravens...SD wins in a laugher, and with that the $$$ will push on to an unprecedented $150 week 17.

AW 6-4
TN 6-4
CP 6-4

So MNF is meaningless for this week but important in the final tally for MR and GR on SF and MO on PIT.

Full recap tomorrow. No Bowl Games tonight, those start up again on Tuesday as well.

Late Update

2011-12-18T19:23:00.000-06:00

TN is 6-3 with BAL left
GR is 5-3 with BAL SF

After that we have about 6 guys with 4 losses that will all be in the mix with a SD win.

So it looks like a SD win would likely move us toward another push, while a BAL win would either give TN a win, or create another push if SF covers -1 tomorrow night.

Good Luck.

2:00 Sunday Update

2011-12-18T14:01:00.000-06:00

Quick update on a few different things...

First, the 2 missing lines are as follows:

MIA
BUF 0

PIT
SF -1

Next, here are the leaders coming into the action today for Week 16:

JG 2-0, GR 2-0, LW 1-0, MO 1-0, RO 1-0, MR 1-0

I'll send over some updates later before the SNF game or maybe before the end of the 3pm games.

BOWL UPDATE
3 down, 32 to go...here's how we did yesterday:

SS-3
GT-3
MC-2
TN-2
CP-2
LW-2
JR-1
MR-1
AW-1
GR-1
MH-1
RO-1
MT-1
JH-1
MO-1
JG-0

We're right around 50% through the first 3 games, and we still have 2 guys with a shot at the elusive 35-0 Bowl Season. Good Luck.

Bowl Picks - 12/17 Games

2011-12-16T10:10:00.000-06:00

The first taste of the Bowl Season is here on Saturday. Here's what we're looking at in the first 3 games:

TEM 5, WY 11
Lots of WY love with the points in this one. I'm on TEM (which seems to be my theme in these games...in the minority on most). I love their running game and D. Line has moved to 7 and then back to 6.5 at most places, so it should be pretty close.

UTST 3, OHIO 13
UTST is hot, and that's why I went with them. OHIO blew a big lead in the MAC title game which would have put them in a January bowl so I feel like they are not real excited about playing in this one. JG and MT are with me on the UTST vibe giving the points.

ULL 5, SDST 11
Finally a game where I'm with the majority on SDST. I really liked SDST early in this one, but since reading about their injury issues I've kind of softened my stance. With the game being in NO, I think ULL will have the better crowd, but the weird thing is that in recent history the team that has to travel farther actually has a better record in games like this. SDST has the talent edge by a long shot, so I'm going with that at -5.

We have 3 points on the line Saturday, let the playoff race begin. No matter how brutal your regular season was, the slate is wiped clean and we're all 0-0 again. Good Luck.

Here are all my picks for a reference to keep things legit:

TEM, UTST, SDST, FIU, LT,BOISE,SOMISS, NC, WMU, LOU, TOL, TEX, FSU, BAY, TULSA, RUT, MISST, OK, NW, UTAH, ILL, CIN, VIR, OKST, ORE, OHIOST, SC, MSU, PSU, MICH, WV, ARK, PITT, ARKST, ALABAMA!

Week 16 Preview

2011-12-16T10:00:00.000-06:00

Here are the picks for this week, sorry I can't erase the JAC pick from last night for some of us (including myself). I had ATL marked all week and made the impulse change yesterday...I'm a sucker for points. Oh well, 9-1 will probably still take home the $100!! Here we go:

JR: JAC TB WAS SEA KC MIN OAK PHI DEN BAL
JG: SEA BAL ATL DAL CIN TEN HOU DET NYJ NE
MR: SEA BAL DAL NYJ OAK DEN GB CAR NO SF
AW: NYJ NO HOU DET NE TB KC IND CHI SD
GR: NO HOU NE SEA BAL DAL GB SF ATL NYG
MH: NO HOU SEA BAL NYG TB OAK CIN TEN ARI
MC: NO HOU BAL TB OAK NE CHI JAC WAS PHI
SS: NO HOU BAL NE CHI JAC WAS NYJ DET KC
RO: NO HOU NE NYJ DET NYG CIN GB ATL CLE
TN: NYJ DET BAL JAC WAS KC SEA IND CAR MIN
MT: NYJ DET BAL JAC KC IND MIN HOU CIN TB
GT: DET JAC HOU TB SEA NE PHI TEN ARI SF
MS: SEA TEN SF NYJ CIN WAS NO GB DEN BUF
CP: CIN WAS GB DET TB NE PHI ATL CHI SD
LW: GB SD SF NYJ DEN BUF MIN NYG OAK DAL
JH: WAS TB NE CHI TEN NO ARI BAL CAR STL
MO: WAS TEN NO GB SD NYJ DEN DAL SEA PIT

Here are the game splits for the week:

DAL 5, TB 8
CIN 6, STL 1
MIA O, BUF 2
WAS 8, NYG 4
TEN 6, IND 3
SEA 9, CHI 5
GB 7, KC 5
CAR 3, HOU 9
NO 10, MIN 4
DET 8, OAK 5
CLE 1, ARI 3
NYJ 10, PHI 4
NE 9, DEN 5
BAL 10, SD 4
PIT 1, SF 5

Still no lines on MIA-BUF or PIT-SF...I'll send those when they are available.

Quick thoughts...

DAL might lose tomorrow. They are TURRIBLE on the road, TB is coming off an embarassing performance, I think this is an easy one.

I like CIN and TEN at bad teams on the road giving 7. But I bet one or both doesn't cover. I don't think either is worthy of being a TD fav on the road against anyone, so I avoided both. IND and STL are soooo bad that it seems like it might work out...I'm torn so I stayed away.

WAS +8 looks like another easy one to me. They just continue to get a TD+ in every game and they've actually played well the last few weeks. NYG coming off the letdown from the big DAL win...division game...all seems to favor the Skins.

Da Bears are dead. The loss last week was the last straw. This team has no QB and no confidence right now. SEA is actually playing quite well in a last ditch playoff push. I love the way they run the ball and play D...they may lose by a FG, but that's why +4 is a great number.

Every single double digit home dog this year has covered, so I had to take KC even though I could see this not working out. Orton is starting, but guess who the backup is...the one and only Dick Stanzi...yikes. The guy threw more pick 6's than I can count against the likes of ISU, IND, and NW...he could struggle against a ball-hawking GB D. Also KC could be in dump mode after firing Haley this week. But I picked them because I bet against the Packers every week and I'm a sucker for big points, especially at home. Hoping for a 21-7 fluke cover after the Pack pulls the first team at halftime.

CAR-HOU...no opinion. Seriously no clue what to expect in this one.

Aints at Purple seems like an easy one right. The whole Purple Nation is expecting the worst...terrible secondary against a prolific passing offense. Well, here are my reasons for being on the Purple: AD is back and the Aints are vulnerable against a run game, Aints suck on the road, Purple has nothing to lose and are getting over a TD at home. The line opened at 7.5 but has moved past the magic number of 7 to 6.5 at most sharp books. That tells me that some smaaat guys have put some substantial cash down on Purple Pride, which is good enough for me to try. In games like this where it seems like the favorite could name their number, it usually ends up just the opposite. I'm always skeptical of taking what look like obvious road favorites, it seems to backfire more often than not.

DET is another dead team in my opinion. OAK has gotten destroyed the last couple of weeks, so they should be ready in this one. DET hasn't played well in over a month, so why would that change now. I think they come into OAK and get beat easily.

CLE-ARI...no clue, but I do know Seneca Wallace is playing QB for CLE, which would work if they were playing Iowa, but since they're not I don't like CLE's chances.

Lots of JETS love this week, and I get it...they've looked good the last couple of weeks. That's why I'm against them this week and taking PHI. Eagles with Vick are a lot better than Eagles without Vick. There's still a ton of talent on that club, so I'm expecting a strong finish. Give me Eagles in this one with a short line.

Brady vs. Jesus...I know it looks obvious, but I am going against the obvious and taking Jesus and points at home. How can you not pick this guy right now? Until this crazy streak ends he'll be on my list each week...especially getting points at home against a team without a D. I expect NE to try and score a lot early and build a lead, but I honestly think even Jesus can throw against this D, so I'm taking the points. I have to believe the winning streak will end, but 6 points seems too much to be giving a hot team like DEN right now at home.

Great pair of evening games this week, first BAL at SD. I'm kind of back and forth on this one, but I still think BAL is a much better team. The fact that they are still motivated to get that division title and 1st round bye makes me like them in this one. SD is on their last leg, one more loss knocks them out...but I like the BAL D with Lewis coming back against anything Norv can throw out there. It should be a close one, but I'll take BAL.

The MNF game is also a fun one with PIT at SF. I like PIT to win, but with no line posted yet I had to stay away. It also sounds like Big Ben may be out, which may alter my pick. Batch is capable, but in a 16-13 slug fest like this is destined to be I don't like PIT's chances without Ben. I'll pick PIT, but with an asterisk.

Good Luck this week Guys - first batch of Bowl games is coming next.

Thirsty Thursday Night Preview

2011-12-15T15:34:00.000-06:00

6 guys on JAC tonight (including me) and 4 on ATL giving 12.5

I'll send out the full preview tonight.

Still waiting on 5 guys for Bowl Picks - I'll need those by early tomorrow for sure. If you've forgotten, I need picks in all 35 games.

I'll send out the picks for the first set of Bowl Games tomorrow or early Saturday as well.

Sorry for the large amount of work this week guys - I'll give you all raises for the extra effort...if you win of course.

Need Week 16 and Bowl Picks from...

2011-12-15T09:21:00.000-06:00

WEEK 16 PICKS
HEINERT
G.THOMAS
SETNICKER
PEYTON
LUKE W.

BOWL PICKS (ALL 35 GAMES)
ROE
BOMB
HEINERT
CORCORAN
G.THOMAS
SETNICKER
PEYTON
LUKE W.

Send me all of this today so we're set for the week and the Bowl season.

Thanks.

Wednesday Stuff

2011-12-14T14:27:00.000-06:00

So much crazy shiz going on right now, I figured I should get some thoughts out there on what impacts the Football Challenge.

1. IOWA ?'s
So Norm Parker, who has been the Iowa DC since Paterno was a baby, is retiring after this season. For an Iowa guy, he seems like a pretty good dude and it's a loss that will hurt the Squawks. I don't believe Ferentz has ever replaced a coordinator at Iowa, so this will be something new. The D was bad this year, but over the last 10 it's been the unit that has carried that team to a couple of nice seasons. The other question mark in Iowa City is around the Cap'n, Mr. Ferentz himself. He's always been good buds with Scott Pioli and the Belichick coaching tree, Mr. Pioli fired Todd Haley in KC, this seems like a nice fit. Although, if you're Ferentz, why the hell would you ever leave the Iowa job where he's the richest man in the state and seems to maintain his spot while performing well below expectations over the last few years. I hope it happens, but I HATE IOWA, but to me the Cap'n doesn't look like an NFL coach. We'll see, his name seems to come up with a lot of NFL openings but my question is why? The world may never know.

2. NCAA Coaching ?'s
Okay. So AUB OC and offensive guru Gus Malzahn decides he's had enough of being OC at AUB and takes the HC job at ARKST while also taking nearly a 50% pay cut to make the move? Something smells funny to me on this one. I get the urge to be a HC, but this is the same guy who basically turned down the job at VANDY last year and now he accepts ARKST? I'm wondering if there is something happening or something that did happen at AUB that caused a rift with Chizik. Former Gopher DC, Ted Roof, was also fired from the DC spot on AUB after this season. Chizik is cleaning house...or are these guys leaving voluntarily because Chizik is showing his inner Cyclone side and is a complete d-bag? This is the same staff that won the NC just last season, and now in an expected rebuilding year that went surprisingly well, they are all abandoning ship? Where there's smoke there's fire.

The other oddity just happened today. Coaching turnover at a school is tough and it usually takes a while to dig out of the hole your previous coach puts you in while the learning curve for the new coach takes a year or two as well. So with that in mind, how about the Pitt Panthers. Todd Graham, first year coach who replaced the Wann-Stache, just jumped ship to go to ASU after just one season. This Graham character is a class-act, he texted back to his boss to relay the message to the kids that he's off to Tempe so God Bless. Nice, that's a quality individual. This is the same guy that has now held 4 different HC jobs in the last 6 years. Stability...or not I guess. So Graham is a dbag, and it will be easy to root against the Sun Devils again next year. On the flip side you have the Pitt Panthers and their circus of a situation. First, they fire long time coach Wann-Stache last year and hire the guy who lead MIAOH to the MAC title. Well, then this guy (can't remember his name right now and too lazy to look it up) gets a domestic charge against him and a DUI I believe and he's fired in the matter of 2 weeks before he even does anything at PITT. So the search is on again, and they settle on Graham from Tulsa. I figured this would work for a while as it was Graham's first big-time BCS job. Now he bails, and PITT is searching for their 3rd coach in the last year! This is a train wreck. It's not like it's a bad job either, but apparently nobody can keep it for very long.

3. Senator Craig James
As a Thursday night football viewer, I can say I got an early x-mas present yesterday when Craig James revelaed his plans to run for Senate in TX and stop talking about games on ESPN. Thank you Santa Jesus. The 3 man booth of Rece Davis, James, and Jesse Palmer was like driving 8" nails into your ears for 4 hours at a time. I like Rece, he's fine...Jesse, not so much...but James was by far the worst. The way he got Leach fired, cheated at SMU, and says nothing of value on Thursdays for the last couple of years should make this a National Holiday for all of the College Football world. DEC 13th will forever be the day that Thursday Night football got their mojo back - you could hire anyone and it will be an upgrade. Thanks for the memories Craig, good luck on that Senate thing!

4. NFL Madness
11 of the 16 games from last week fell within 1 score of the line. The madness that is watching NFL games and betting ATS is insane. Of my 4 losses from last week, 3 could have easily and I might argue should have easily been wins. CIN loses on a last second TD from HOU even though they had a large lead the whole game. TEN decides to not throw the ball into the EZ at the end to beat NO and doesn't cover the 3.5 pt spread at the same time. Then DAL blows a 12 pt lead with 3 mins left in the game and loses outright! 3 heartbreakers that didn't go my way, but at the same time I had a last play TD from INDY to cover the BAL line, an extra late TD from SEA to cover the 10 on MNF, and PIT laying off the gas an not blowing out the pathetic Browns on TNF. So I guess I lose 3 and I win 3...you win the weeks where out of the 6 close ones you get 5. Seriously, sometimes it seems like you should just flip a coin and see what happens. I think I'm going to actually add that next year, we'll have a mythical player who flips a coin on 15 games a week and we'll see how bad he beats some of us!

5. NFL Fun Facts and Playoff Run Preview
3 games to go, here a division by division breakdown of what should happen and what is happening:
DAL-NYG-PHI-WAS
DAL can't win on the road and has 2 road games left...they miss the playoffs. NYG aren't elite, but I think they win the division. They have a chance to win out. PHI hasn't won back to back games all year, but I still think they are the team of the century! They have only 5 wins, only 1 of those was at home...wow. WAS sucks, but I seem to pick them and win with them every week. After that pesky 6 game losing streak, I think they figured some things out since the return of the Rex. They continue to get more than a TD against teams that shouldn't give more than a TD to anyone.

CHI-DET-GB-MIN
CHI is done. After the bad loss to Jesus last week I think their chips have been cashed. The might lose out...which would include a Metrodome L in the final week. DET is also not going anywhere. This team hasn't played really well since they killed Jesus almost 2 months ago...and they were the last ones to beat him. I think they lose out as well. GB, it's tough to not see 16-0 in their future, but let's let the WIS luck continue. Vagers miss out on their Nat'l Title dreams, Brew Crew sucks in the playoffs and now has everything fall apart, I think it's only a natural progression for the Pack to fall into this same trap. It's basically Super Bowl Champ or bust at this point, so you know what I think will happen and what I'll be rooting for. No D = No Ring. PURPLE - well, we're holding on strong to a top 3 pick, which is really the only goal at this point. I think they beat the Bears but lose the rest...3-13. We're allowing 28 ppg, maybe it's time to revamp the D? Just an idea.

ATL-CAR-NO-TB
ATL will make the playoffs. Easy end to the slate will get them in, but they are not impressive and have been a big disappointment this year. CAR will probably beat TB next Saturday, but lose the other 2 and continue to add more in the draft. NO is scoring a stupid 32 ppg and covered 5 in a row. They win out and go 13-3 for the #2 seed. TB has lost 7 straight, and scores less than the Purple! They've only broke 20 pts once during that streak (vs. the invincible Packers). No wins left, 4-12.

ARI-SF-SEA-STL
ARI has won 5/6, did anyone notice? And they have 3 winnable games left...9-7? They were 1-6, now covered 6 of 7. They only score 19 ppg, but they play D...so they have a chance. SF is a division champ, but I have no faith in this team. Great D, but it's still Alex Smith. Not a lot left to play for, because the Saints will get the #2 seed. SEA is playing really well. They only score 19 ppg too, but they also play great D. in 6 of their 13 games they've held opponents under 20...that's how you win. They have also won 4 of 5. STL is bad. 12 ppg, scored over 20 points 1 time this year...in 13 games!...only 1 time! They have CIN, PIT, SF left...damn it, they probably beat out the Purple for the #2 pick.

BUF-MIA-NE-NYJ
Remember when the Bills were good? Since they have lost the last 6 weeks they can pretty much start planning for next year. MIA, fired coach...start planning for next year. NE, I usually love this club, but their D is really not that good and I think they can't do anything in the playoffs. If it works out, they could/will give the Pack a run, but I don't think they get there. NYJ will cruise into their usual wildcard spot and be a dangerous play in the opening round. They have PHI, NYG, MIA left...not the easiest slate, but I'll pencil them in for now.

BAL-CIN-CLE-PIT
Ravens = division champs. They've handled PIT twice, I like this team. They have more offense than you realize and that D when healthy is the best. CIN still has a shot, but they've lost 4 of 5, 3 of which were in the division. Much better than I expected, but I think the dream is dead for this year. CLE needs to blow it up and start over. I just heard that they haven't scored in the 4th quarter this year...how is that even possible. Lost 6 of 7, only scoring 14 ppg, ugly. PIT just doesn't seem to have it this season. They keep winning, but nothing is impressive and they are banged up all over the place. SF, CLE, STL left...so they could win out, but I think they get a WC spot.

HOU-IND-JAC-TEN
HOU has clinched already, but they look like a scary bet for the playoffs. D improved = wins improve...weird, huh. 7 wins in a row, but missing their QB and now DC Wade Phillips is leaving for a while with health issues...not good omens. IND is 0-13 and contemplating trading their franchise QB and drafting a new one. Dan "I look for open receivers while I'm running on the back line of the end zone" Orlovsky was their QB last week. They shouldn't win all year, but probably will sneak out one. JAC, coach already fired here as well...season over. Another pathetic offense at 15 ppg, only better than the 14 ppg that INDY has put up. I still like TEN as a potential playoff contender if the Jets stumble. IND-JAC-HOU is a nice way to finish considering all 3 of them have nothing to play for. TEN could be a 10 win team and I think they have the tiebreaker over NYJ right now. Stay tuned.

DEN-KC-OAK-SD
Jesus is going to get this team in the playoffs as the division champ. Is there really any doubt? NE, BUF, KC left...but it doesn't matter. 6 in a row, and 7 out of 8...unreal. KC, coach fired, potentially playing Stanzi at QB this week...HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! They haven't broke 10 points in a game in 6 weeks! Stanzi will make that streak last 3 more weeks. OAK looked good early and has really struggled lately. But they've played 4 of 5 on the road and have 2 of the last 3 at home. All 3 are winnable and I still think they are a good team...but the NFL and God will not allow them into the playoffs when Jesus is QB on the other side. SD still feels like a mirage to me. 2 wins in a row, but 3 tough games left and basically needing to win out to be considered is not a good bet. SD = dead.

So my official picks:
NFC: GB, NO, SF, NYG...ATL, SEA
AFC: NE, BAL, HOU, DEN...PIT, NYJ

If you're still reading, be sure to send in your picks for this week in the NFL and all 35 Bowl Picks are also due on Thursday.

Week 16 Lines

2011-12-13T12:04:00.002-06:00

Missing 2 games right now, as always I'll send those when they are posted but feel free to pick them now if you want.

JAC
ATL -12.5

DAL
TB 7

CIN
STL 7

MIA
BUF

WAS
NYG -8

TEN
IND 7

SEA
CHI -4

GB
KC 15.5

CAR
HOU -6

NO
MIN 7.5

DET
OAK -1

CLE
ARI -7

NYJ
PHI -1.5

NE
DEN 6

BAL
SD 0

PIT
SF

Week 15 Review

2011-12-13T08:56:00.000-06:00

As I said yesterday, no winner this week so week 16 will be worth $100.

Week 15 W L %

MS 0 0 #DIV/0!

JG 7 3 70.0%

SS 7 3 70.0%

JR 6 4 60.0%

MH 6 4 60.0%

MC 6 4 60.0%

MT 6 4 60.0%

JH 6 4 60.0%

MR 5 5 50.0%

AW 5 5 50.0%

RO 5 5 50.0%

GT 5 5 50.0%

GR 4 6 40.0%

TN 4 6 40.0%

CP 4 6 40.0%

LW 3 7 30.0%

MO 3 7 30.0%

We hit 51.3% in total this week, 0% in the NCAA game and 53% in NFL.

YTD W L %

TN 121 99 55.0%

MR 119 101 54.1%

SS 119 101 54.1%

JH 119 101 54.1%

CP 117 103 53.2%

MT 116 104 52.7%

MH 115 105 52.3%

GR 114 106 51.8%

MO 113 107 51.4%

RO 110 110 50.0%

JG 109 111 49.5%

JR 108 112 49.1%

GT 107 113 48.6%

MC 106 114 48.2%

AW 105 115 47.7%

LW 104 116 47.3%

MS 56 164 25.5%

It's going to be quite a finish at the top. TN maintains his lead by 2 games over a trio of MR, SS, and JH. CP is only 4 back and MT is 5 back. We still have 30 NFL games to pick, so it's still wide open. We are at 51.2% on the year (without MS).

NFL W L %

MT 61 44 58.1%

MH 45 34 57.0%

JR 53 41 56.4%

JH 48 38 55.8%

JG 59 47 55.7%

MC 49 41 54.4%

TN 41 35 53.9%

SS 45 43 51.1%

AW 49 51 49.0%

RO 46 49 48.4%

GT 52 59 46.8%

MR 36 41 46.8%

LW 58 68 46.0%

CP 35 42 45.5%

GR 39 50 43.8%

MO 35 49 41.7%

MS 24 110 17.9%

MT has a 1.1% lead in NFL standings. We are at 50.6% in total (without MS).

3 more weeks of nothing but NFL picks to decide our champion. I think one brutal week will knock you out at this point with everyone being so close.

Don't forget to send me your BOWL PICKS...I need you pick for every game by Thursday so we can be all set for the season. I'll be sending out the Week 16 NFL lines shortly.

Week 15 Monday Update

2011-12-12T12:19:00.000-06:00

Giants cover, and we have a push for the week. JG and SS both finish at 7-3 and nobody will catch them. $100 on the line next week. MNF is meaningless tonight, but I'm sure you won't miss the classic STL-SEA battle. Full recap coming tomorrow.

Week 15 SNF Update

2011-12-11T18:40:00.000-06:00

Pack-OAK game not over yet, but I think we can mark it down as official. With that, here are the current standings:

Week 15 W L %

SS 7 3 70.0%

JG 6 3 66.7%

JH 6 3 66.7%

JR 5 3 62.5%

MC 6 4 60.0%

MT 5 4 55.6%

MR 5 5 50.0%

MH 4 4 50.0%

AW 4 5 44.4%

RO 4 5 44.4%

GT 4 5 44.4%

CP 3 6 33.3%

LW 3 6 33.3%

GR 2 6 25.0%

TN 2 6 25.0%

MO 2 6 25.0%

SS is done at 7-3, JH has DAL and JG has NYG so one of them should reach 7 wins and tie SS...unless it ends on exactly a 3 pt spread, then they'll both lose and SS will be $50 weekly winner.

Good Luck.

STL-SEA Line

2011-12-10T08:16:00.000-06:00

Well, I said I liked it all the way up to about 10 not thinking it would ever be that high...but I guess it it.

Official line for this MNF Classic is:

STL
SEA -10

Good Luck!

Week 15 Preview

2011-12-08T15:08:00.000-06:00

Almost all NFL picks this week besides ARMY-NAVY on Saturday...time to decide a winner for 2011.

Still no line on STL at SEA for MNF, but some of us still picked it...so I will still send out that line when necessary because odds are it will come into play.

PICKS
JR: CLE JAC CIN NYJ TEN IND OAK SD DAL SEA
JG: CLE NYJ IND OAK NE NO PHI ATL SF NYG
MR: NYJ IND NE NO SF CIN SD TB DEN GB
AW: NE NO SF TB OAK ATL NYG HOU MIN BUF
GR: NAVY NE NO SF NYG GB SEA PIT MIA CAR
MH: NAVY NE SF NYG GB SEA ATL CIN PHI JAC
MC: NE SF GB ATL CIN JAC NO IND CLE KC
SS: NE ATL CIN JAC NO NYJ SD BAL CHI ARI
RO: NAVY NE NO SF GB NYG PHI CAR HOU DET
TN: NYG DET ATL CIN NYJ SEA OAK BUF DEN TEN
MT: NAVY NYG OAK NO SF CAR IND CLE MIN WAS
GT: NYG NO SF DET ATL DEN NE PHI SD PIT
MS: x x x x x x x x x x
CP: NYG SF SD OAK CAR MIN TEN HOU KC TB
LW: SF SD MIN DEN NE PIT CIN NYJ BAL DAL
JH: SF SD MIN NE DAL KC NO ATL PHI CHI
MO: NAVY NE DAL NO PIT NYJ OAK CAR DET SEA

First, we have the ARMY-NAVY game on Saturday. This will be the first year that I didn't include this in my picks...but with my track record in NCAA for this year I figure I'm just saving myself a loss.

ARMY (+7.5) at NAVY
I'm going ARMY on this one, for the Challenge we have 5 on NAVY and none on ARMY. Why ARMY, well it obviously a rivalry game and if I can get more than a TD in a rivalry game where both teams are average to bad, then I'll take it. GO ARMY BEAT NAVY (or at least only lose by a TD or less). ARMY 21-20 WINNER!!

THIRSTY THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

CLE (+15.5) at PIT
We are split 4-4 on this one for tonight. I love points in the NFL, especially in a game like this with a couple of grind it out teams with a game who's outcome should really never be in doubt. Try and convince me that PIT won't be satisfied winning this one 10-6...you can't. In a division game with a team only playing for pride I like the points here although I think it will be close to that number. PIT 20-6.

TB at JAC (+1)
I would take TB here if I had a clue who their QB was going to be this week, but I don't and the JAGS just got blown away on MNF, so I'm taking a chance on them. We have 3 TB and 4 JAC for the Challenge. JAC in a struggle 23-20.

NE at WAS (+9.5)
Predictably the whole world loves NE in this one (12 vs. 1 on WAS). I didn't play it, but if I would have I would like WAS. I just don't see this NE team as great when they sport one of the worst D's in the league. WAS has broken back into respectability range since Rex came back and the Pats have only covered one big line all year. I'll take Skins to cover but NE wins 28-24.

HOU at CIN (-1)
3 on HOU and 7 on CIN...I underestimated the HOU D at home last week, but the young QB on the road in a hostile environment against a good defense will be a different story. Yates managed the game last week, but I think the Bungals, off of 4 straight division games, will be ready to play well. PIT housed them last week and they are still in the playoff hunt so a big home win is necessary this week. This is my best bet of the week...CIN 24-10.

KC at NYJ (-9.5)
3 on KC, 7 on NYJ...I'm on the Jets. KC had a moment on the road last week against a deflated CHI team and the Jets surprised me and played pretty well against WAS. I can't pick KC to score more than 10 at the very most against a good D with their current QB disaster, and the JETS need to keep taking care of business to stay in the jumbled playoff hunt in the AFC for that 6 spot. JETS win big 27-10.

MIN at DET (-7)
5 on Purple, 4 on DET...I stayed away, but I kind of wish I would have picked DET. I know they are kind of slopfest to watch right now, but have you seen the Purple lately. Ponder is very questionable, the D may as well take this one off, and AD could be back but no guarantees. If the Lions keep it together they should score in the 30's without a doubt. MIN, especially without Ponder and AD won't be able to get to the endzone more than twice. DET wins 35-16.

NO at TEN (+3.5)
11 on NO, 3 on TEN...Another classic game where the line looks low with a "great" team on the road. The Saints aren't nearly the same team away from the Katrina Dome, and this TEN club is really starting to find it right now. The motivation for NO is also not there at this point to get into a fist fight with a physical team like TEN because really all they have left to do is beat ATL at home on MNF in a couple of weeks and they'll win the division. They won't catch GB, they might catch SF, but after 2 big home night wins I think they'll be down a bit. Give me TEN in a playoff drive period against a still below average Saints D. TEN wins 24-21.

PHI at MIA (-3)
5 PHI, 1 MIA...I avoided this one altogether. Will PHI make a stand and show up the rest of the year? Can MIA keep the streak going? When it doubt take the hot team...so I'm picking Fins. 20-14.

IND (+16.5) at BAL
5 on IND, 2 on BAL...Big points for a team without a great offense. Colts cover this as long as they don't give up D/SPT TD's that make it ugly. BAL wins 27-17.

ATL at CAR (+2.5)
8 ATL, 5 CAR... I've kind of been anti-Falcon all year, so why stop now. I just haven't been impressed by anything they have done this year. Give me underdog Cam at home. 33-30 Panthers.

CHI at DEN (-3.5)
2 CHI, 4 DEN...Tebow giving more than a FG at home to a good D...and I'm going with it! How can you bet against this team right now, if this was 2.5 I'm all over it, but they could really win this one 3-0 and I wouldn't be surprised. How do the Bears do anything without a QB or RB at this point? Keep betting on Jesus until he proves he can't win every game! DEN 11-6.

SF at ARI (+3.5)
12 SF, 1 ARI...The 3rd exmaple of a "good" team giving a small number on the road that everyone jumps on board. SF just still doesn't seem like that strong of a club to me, and on the road against an ARI team that's actually won a lot lately I don't like giving 3.5. Give me Kolb at home in a nail biter...ARI 20-17.

OAK (+12.5) at GB
7 OAK, 5 GB...Once again I think it's just too many points to be giving a good team like OAK. The Pack continue to have close games week in and week out because they really are getting the best shot from everyone at this point. OAK can score, which is criticial when playing GB, so I think they hang in this enough to cover a number. GB wins 28-21.

BUF at SD (-6)
2 BUF, 7 SD...I think SD has a little mojo back and might be in line for a snoozer win this weekend. BUF is pretty much dundee after 5 straight losses, and the Super-Chargers still are clinging to life. The ugly BUF D could look a lot like JAC on MNF...SD wins 34-20.

NYG at DAL (-3)
9 NYG, 4 DAL...Predictable split on this one, NYG look good last week, DAL looks bad, everyone jumps on the G-men. That's exactly why I like the Cowboys in this one. Yeah, NYG played well with GB, but they've lost 4 in a row. DAL sucks on the road, this is proven, but they are tough at home. It will probably be close, because these games always seem to be, but I'll take DAL 31-24.

STL at SEA (-???)
0 STL, 5 SEA...STL and ARMY are in exclusive company this week...nobody likes them. Tough to do when there are only 34 teams and 160 picks thrown out there for the week! Seriously, I might take SEA -10 in this game if that was the line. Not because they are that good, but STL definitely is that bad. SEA 29-3.

There it is. Should be an interesting and unpredictable week where anything can happen.

G-Reg is possibly heading out to Lambeau this weekend, I got a glimpse of the outfits he and my mom plan on wearing, what do you think? I approve.

Need Week 15 Picks from...

2011-12-08T09:08:00.001-06:00

HEINERT
G.THOMAS
SETNICKER
PEYTON
LUKE W.

Thanks.

Football Challenge SHARE SALE!

2011-12-07T14:42:00.000-06:00

For the 1st time ever, we are having a share sale on the Football Challenge. For only $250 you can buy a share of Football Challenge Stock and be a part owner in the franchise. You will have the ability to attend annual shareholder meetings and have a say in the future of the Football Challenge. What better time to get in than now when the Football Challenge is successful and growing?!? Send your money to me...these shares will go fast!

Yeah, if the morons to the East can do it, why can't I? I think this is a great plan for anyone who needs to raise some funds in a hurry. Sell off legitimate but kind of fictional "shares" of your franchise and rake in the dollars. So you're giving them $250 to get a piece of paper with your name on it, and for that you get the right to go to a meeting? And how about his caveat to it all, as a "owner" you are no longer allowed to wager on sports any more...if the NFL catches you doing that you can be fined $5K-$10K! The Packer front office is obviously a lot smarter than the rest of that state because this is the best scam you can come up with. People are banging your door down to give you money to spend on your franchise for a piece of paper that gives them the right to attend a meeting. Brilliant. So, it's x-mas time and the kids need presents...send me your check for a share of the Football Challenge as soon as you can. They are avaialable now.

So obviously the BCS is the hot topic once again with the "controversy" surrounding the rematch between LSU and ALABAMA. I've got a lot of thoughts on this...

1. People point to the myth that "ALA already had their chance, give OKST a try." This logic is stupid. I understand the frustration for the 2011 NCAA Football Average Fan who wants to see a new game with points rather than another 9-6 defensive battle, but that's not what drives the BCS. The BCS is designed to put the 2 best teams in the country together to play for the title, and in this case it worked. Some may think OKST is actually better than ALA...

2. ALABAMA is better than OKST. Right now, ALA and LSU would be at least a 7 point favorite over any other team in the nation on a neutral field. That includes OKST. ALA lost to the best team in the country in a nail-biter. OKST lost to a average Iowa State club...see the difference? A team that plays in the BCS Title game can never have anything resmebling "lost to Iowa State" on their resume. If you are the best, you do not lose football games to teams like that, so anyone with a loss like that should be instantly eliminated from consideration. I almost think STAN, even though they were crushed by ORE, has more of a claim to a spot than OKST.

3. Some may argue that OKST needs a break because they lost the night after the women's basketball team had a plane crash. Tragic...yes. Excuse to lose a game...no. I'm sorry, it's just not a valid arguement that could catapault a team into the title game in a situation like this. You could make up excuses for a lot of the losses that every team has each year, but to excuse a loss in Ames for this is not going to work.

4. I do have some thoughts the other way, in OKST's favor, as well. Clearly, I have established that I agree with the ALA-LSU matchup and I think the right team was chosen, but I don't agree with how we got there. Case in point, the Coaches Poll. So this is a major component of the BCS formula but the AP Poll is not. I guess the logic was that the BCS viewed the Coaches poll as unbiased and more true as a ranking system than the AP. The truth is that most of these coaches don't even fill it out because they don't get a chance to watch any other football games besides their own. They can read boxscores, but you and I both know that scores can be very decieving. So the poll loses legitimacy there already. Couple that with the fact that in this final poll each coach basically only holds loyalty to their school and their conference because when their school and their conference do well then they are compensated. That brings us to this sketchy situation, where Nick Saban votes OKST 4th in his poll and Gary Pinkel of MIZZ (who is leaving the B12 for the SEC) votes OKST out of the top 3 as well. It's their right, but it's complete BS because they knew it would be close and come down to % points, so they tried to skew the system to favor their team or their conference and increase their payday. Hopefully, this will force the BCS to realize that this should be nowhere near the final formula for ranking these teams and it gets changed for next season.

The old playoff arguement will go on forever, and I'm not expecting to see it actually happen anytime soon. But for the hell of it, I'll tell you about the system I favor and what that would have produced. I like an 8 teamer that gives the 6 BCS conference champs a bid and then takes the highest non-BCS conference team and 1 wildcard (highest ranked team left based on a BCS formula). Once we have our 8 teams, we use the BCS formula to rank them, which would produce this:

1.LSU vs. 8.WV
4.ORE vs. 5.BOISE
2.ALA vs. 7.CLEM
3.OKST vs. 6.WIS

Who wouldn't want to watch these games next weekend? Start it with 4 crazy good games on the 23rd and 24th (FRI/SAT). Play round 2 on DEC 31, and make the BCS Title Game on Jan 9th like it is right now. Biggest TV deals ever.

Now it's my opinion that even through this process we'd probably get to the same result and have LSU-ALA on 1/9, but it would be fun to watch and we'd have a true OKST-ALA game to make sure we had the right team. How about an LSU-ORE rematch followed by OKST-ALA on New Year's Eve?!?!!? I guess this just makes too much sense. Everyone has a chance, you can play the games in the big Bowls just like now, but make them actually mean something instead of only 1 game mattering on 1/9.

Even a +1 system would be better. Matchup up LSU-ORE and ALA-OKST in the bowl games and a Final 4 type atmosphere, then have the winners play on Jan 9th.

Alright, next.

I'd like to congratulate the Innaugural B12 Title Game champs, The Sconny Vagers. If you missed Brew and his comedy throughout this game, you may not get another chance. I almost pissed myself when he was questioning the Vagers 2pt call and saying it was a "calculated mistake", what does that even mean? Brew mocking Bielema on a 2pt call...awesome. Then he brings out his "pound the rock" mantra that was used here in 2008 and showed up again in early 2010 before his departure. But his last quote just topped it all off...thanks for the memories TE Timmy, I'm sure this will be your last run on the sidelines because you've proven you can't even do that right.

One final point before we go...my miscalculated JAGS picks on MNF this week. So here's my logic, fired coach = team will get a short burst of energy and beat a poor trending Charger team that looks like it's all but finished. Where did I go wrong? Well, unlike NCAA Football, firing a coach during the season in the NFL is a rare thing and the impact appears to in fact be detrimental to the team. The Jags got their doors blown off and didn't have a pulse in the 2nd half. Firing a coach mid-season with a group of 20 year old's can provide motivation and they typically rise up and play better, at least for a week or 2, before their season ends. In the NFL, with 25-30 year old professionals, firing a coach at mid-season says..."we suck, we're throwing in the towel on this year, nobody will care about the rest of these games, you'll all still be getting paid." So while I believe the old mantra about NFL guys don't ever quit because they are professionals, they still have an emotional level that we need to consider. Canning the coach during the year signifies the end of the season and that has to drop the emotional level of the team.

My mistake, all the numbers pointed to SD, but I incorrectly evaluated the emotional state of Team Jaguar...and for that I am sorry.

Well, that's about 10,000 words so I should probably quit.

BOWL GAME LINES

2011-12-07T13:50:00.000-06:00

The wait is over, all Bowl Game lines have been posted. Here's the deal, send me back your pick against the spread in each of the bowl games by THURSDAY DEC 15th. Once again, I don't need them this week, but anytime between now and NEXT THURSDAY I will need your picks for all Bowl Games. I will compile the lists and release my full list of picks at that point. Then I'll send out updates almost daily as the games start to happen and results start coming in.

Each Bowl Game is worth 1,2,or 3 points - I determined these based on the importance of the bowl (BCS =3, New Year's =2, pre-New Year =1) for a total of 50 points. There will be a prize for the most accumulated points in the bowl games, but your bowl total will also be added to your NFL Playoff total to determine the overall Post-Season Champion and 2nd place.

Without further delay...here they are:

TEM
WY 6.5

UTST
OHIO 3

ULL
SDST -5

FIU
MARSH 4.5

LT
TCU -10.5

ASU
BOISE -14

NEV
SOMISS -6

NC
MIZZ -4

WMU
PUR -2.5

LOU
NCST -2.5

TOL
AF 3

CAL
TEX -3

ND
FSU -3

WASH
BAY -9

TULSA
BYU -2.5

RUT
ISU 1.5

WF
MISST -7

IOWA
OK -14

A&M
NW 10

UTAH
GT -3.5

UCLA
ILL -2.5

CIN
VAN -2.5

VIR
AUB -1.5

STAN
OKST -3.5

WIS
ORE -6.5

OHIOST
FLA -2

NEB
SC -1.5

MSU
GEO -4

PSU
HOU -5

MICH
VT 2.5

WV
CLEM -3.5

KST
ARK -7.5

SMU
PITT -5.5

ARKST
NILL 1

ALA
LSU -1

ALL BCS GAMES (5) ARE WORTH 3 POINTS EACH.
ALL OTHER BOWLS THAT HAPPEN JAN 2ND OR LATER (EXCEPT ARKST-NILL, AND SMU-PITT) ARE WORTH 2 POINTS.
ALL GAMES PRIOR TO JAN 2ND AND THE 2 GAMES MENTIONED ABOVE ARE WORTH 1 POINT EACH.

Good Luck!!

Week 15 Lines - Pick 10

2011-12-06T12:32:00.000-06:00

We are missing one, the classic MNF, STL at SEA game. Feel free to gamble and bet it without a line if you want, otherwise I will send an update when something is posted. Once again, I only need 10 PICKS FROM YOU THIS WEEK. Feel free to pick the final NCAA game, ARMY-NAVY, if you want, but you do not have to. Get me the picks by NOON THURSDAY.

ARMY
NAVY -7.5

NFL

CLE
PIT -15.5

TB
JAC 1

NE
WAS 9.5

HOU
CIN -1

KC
NYJ -9.5

MIN
DET -7

NO
TEN 3.5

PHI
MIA -3

IND
BAL -16.5

ATL
CAR 2.5

CHI
DEN -3.5

SF
ARI 3.5

OAK
GB -12.5

BUF
SD -6

NYG
DAL -3

STL
SEA

Week 14 Review

2011-12-06T09:42:00.000-06:00

Damn you college football...it really feels like we just got started and now you're gone again for another 9 months. I know we have the Bowl Games, and they're fun, but it could be better. Anyway, congrats again to Mark Heinert who won the $100 this week at 10-5.

Week 14 W L %

MH 10 5 66.7%

RO 9 6 60.0%

JG 8 7 53.3%

SS 8 7 53.3%

TN 8 7 53.3%

CP 8 7 53.3%

MT 8 7 53.3%

GR 7 8 46.7%

MC 7 8 46.7%

LW 7 8 46.7%

GT 7 8 46.7%

JH 7 8 46.7%

MR 6 9 40.0%

JR 4 11 26.7%

AW 4 11 26.7%

MO 3 12 20.0%

MS 0 0 #DIV/0!

46.3% for the week, another tough one. Lots of unpredictable games this week, in my opinion. We hit 44% in the final week of NCAA football and 48% in NFL.

YTD W L %

TN 117 93 55.7%

MR 114 96 54.3%

CP 113 97 53.8%

JH 113 97 53.8%

SS 112 98 53.3%

MO 110 100 52.4%

MT 110 100 52.4%

GR 110 100 52.4%

MH 109 101 51.9%

RO 105 105 50.0%

JR 102 108 48.6%

GT 102 108 48.6%

JG 102 108 48.6%

LW 101 109 48.1%

MC 100 110 47.6%

AW 100 110 47.6%

MS 56 154 26.7%

The top 9 in the Overall YTD Standings are separated by 8 games or less with 40 picks left in the regular season. It's getting down to crunch time. Reminder - 1st Overall takes home $350, 2nd Overall takes $100.

NCAA W L %

MR 83 60 58.0%

MO 78 58 57.4%

CP 82 61 57.3%

GR 75 56 57.3%

SS 74 58 56.1%

TN 80 64 55.6%

JH 71 63 53.0%

RO 64 61 51.2%

GT 55 54 50.5%

MH 70 71 49.6%

LW 46 48 48.9%

MT 55 60 47.8%

AW 56 64 46.7%

JG 50 64 43.9%

MC 57 73 43.8%

JR 55 71 43.7%

MS 32 54 37.2%

NCAA we hit 51% for the year (1 game left this week, but it shouldn't swing the number too much). Also, MS #'s are skewing this since he only played 6 of the 14 weeks...I'll remove those later and get an actual final number for us. No prize for NCAA champion MR, but I think that's something we'll add next season.

NFL W L %

MT 55 40 57.9%

MH 39 30 56.5%

TN 37 29 56.1%

JR 47 37 56.0%

JH 42 34 55.3%

JG 52 44 54.2%

MC 43 37 53.8%

AW 44 46 48.9%

SS 38 40 48.7%

RO 41 44 48.2%

LW 55 61 47.4%

GT 47 54 46.5%

MR 31 36 46.3%

CP 31 36 46.3%

GR 35 44 44.3%

MO 32 42 43.2%

MS 24 100 19.4%

47.9% going into the stretch run of NFL games. Once again, no prize for the best NFL record, but we will change that next year if we have the numbers I'm expecting.

So what's next. Well, we have 4 weeks remaining in the regular season and we'll only be picking 10 games per week at this point. There is one NCAA game this week (Army-Navy) which you can pick if you want, but do not have to. So it becomes an NFL challenge at this point.

We will also be starting half 2 of the Football Challenge, which is the post-season. This is a little different than the regular season because we will all pick all the games. Bowl games will be sent out as soon as I have lines on all of them and I will need your picks on each game turned in before next weekend (DEC 17th) when the bowls begin. Each bowl game is valued at 1, 2, or 3 points based on level and there are 50 total points available. The BOWL Champ will get $100.

The other half is the NFL playoffs, which are also worth 50 points. There are 11 post-season games, each round the value of games increases and each player will pick all games. We also have 10 prop bets that are used in the Super Bowl to provide some extra emphasis on that game.

You bowl total (50 pts) is added to your NFL Playoff total (50 pts) for your total post-season score. The most points wins $250.

Simple, right? I'll send out the rules again with the games, but just wanted to get you all thinking about what is coming. We still have 4 weeks and $200 to give away during the rest of the regular season plus the overall prizes.

Week 15 lines coming out today.

Good Luck.

Week 14 Monday Update

2011-12-05T13:40:00.000-06:00

Congrats to our weekly winner of $100...Mark Heinert. The Saints came through, or should I say that the Lions gave it away. It was hard to watch, but congrats Mark.

For what it's worth, I really like the Jags tonight.

Complete recap coming tomorrow, as well as info on the start of the post-season challenge. The Bowls are set and once the lines are all up I will be sending out the list.

Happy Monday.

Week 14 Late Sunday Update

2011-12-04T19:05:00.000-06:00

Looks like we could be heading for another push...

Week 14 W L %

MH 8 5 61.5%

RO 8 6 57.1%

JG 7 6 53.8%

SS 7 6 53.8%

CP 8 7 53.3%

TN 7 7 50.0%

MT 7 7 50.0%

GT 7 8 46.7%

GR 6 7 46.2%

MC 6 8 42.9%

LW 5 8 38.5%

JH 5 8 38.5%

MR 5 9 35.7%

JR 4 11 26.7%

AW 3 11 21.4%

MO 2 12 14.3%

MS 0 0 #DIV/0!

Only MH has a chance to win outright at this point. A NO cover tonight wins it for him.

NO cover = MH wins
JG and SS can tie MH if DET covers instead of NO
RO can tie as well at 9 wins with a SD cover.

It all comes down to tonight...NO cover = $100 for MH, DET cover = push to next week.

The Roar has been Restored!!!!

Good Luck.

Week 14 Sunday Update

2011-12-04T09:56:00.000-06:00

Here are the standings after Saturday...an ugly 44% was posted by the group.

Week 14 W L %

RO 5 2 71.4%

GR 5 3 62.5%

MC 3 2 60.0%

TN 6 4 60.0%

MH 4 3 57.1%

GT 4 3 57.1%

CP 5 4 55.6%

JG 3 3 50.0%

MR 4 5 44.4%

SS 3 4 42.9%

LW 3 4 42.9%

MT 3 5 37.5%

JR 2 6 25.0%

AW 2 6 25.0%

JH 2 6 25.0%

MO 1 8 11.1%

MS 0 0 #DIV/0!

Obviously a lot of action left for today. I'll try and get an update out again during the 3pm games or before the SNF game so we know what the winning scenarios are for everyone.

Good Luck.

QUACK! QUACK! QUACK! Go Ducks!

Week 14 Preview

2011-12-01T16:01:00.003-06:00

I'm home with the flu, so this will be short and sweet.

JR: VT KST OK CIN NILL SDST ARKST NTEX ATL BUF WAS CIN IND CLE ARI

JG: VT KST OK BAY BYU UCLA CIN IND OAK TEN NYJ MIN NYG DET SD

MR: CLEM WIS OKST TEX HOU TCU ORE GEO OAK SD ATL SEA DEN GB STL

AW: MSU OK WV HOU NILL WY GEO OAK SD GB MIN BUF PHI HOU TB

GR: WIS OKST BAY WV HOU UNLV UCLA LSU OAK GB ATL DEN DAL NO JAC

MH: x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

MC: WV PITT HOU ULM UTST DEN SD BUF STL CIN WAS CLE MIA KC NE

SS: TEX ISU HOU TCU BOISE ORE LSU DEN SD NE ATL TEN NYG DET ARI

RO: WIS OKST BAY KST UCLA NTEX LSU SD NE ATL MIN TB NYJ BAL SF

TN: VT WIS OKST BAY KST WV SOMISS OHIO WY LSU SD ATL DEN BUF GB

MT: VT WIS OKST WV HOU ORE LSU TEN ARI STL KC OAK NO PHI IND

GT: VT MSU OKST HOU ORE LSU ARI OAK ATL NE MIN SF SEA CHI CAR

MS: x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

CP: VT WIS OKST BAY USF HOU BYU LSU ARI ATL SEA TEN DEN GB WAS

LW: VT MSU BAY KST SYR HOU LSU DEN GB NE CHI NO SD TB MIA

JH: VT KST WV HOU WY ORE LSU NO SD TB ARI WAS PHI NYG HOU

MO: VT WIS OK HOU NILL WY BOISE LSU SD PHI ATL MIN BUF NYJ CIN

I like SEA and WV tonight...Good Luck.

Need Week 14 Picks from...

2011-12-01T08:01:00.002-06:00

Nearly everyone. It's a $100 week, so please don't forget.

MR
GR
MH
MC
SS
RO
TN
MT
GT
MS
CP
LW

Thanks.

Line Update

2011-11-30T13:34:00.002-06:00

DEN at MIN (0)...it's a pick'em, so please add that to your list if you want it for this week.

Thanks.

Week 14 Lines

2011-11-29T18:00:00.000-06:00

So I guess USA TODAY just isn't putting up NCAA lines today, so I had to go to another source to get these out this week. I used Pinnacle sports book, a pretty sharp online book, so these lines will probably be a little tougher to beat for the week versus the usual USA TODAY openers.

No line yet on the Purple-DEN, but everything else is good to go. NCAA and NFL play Thursday, so get me your picks by NOON THURSDAY.

WV
USF 1.5

NILL
OHIO 3.5

UCLA
ORE -31.5

UCONN
CIN -9

SYR
PITT -10.5

ISU
KST -10.5

WY
COLST 5.5

UNLV
TCU -38.5

OK
OKST -3.5

TEX
BAY -2.5

IDAHO
NEV -20

NM
BOISE -48.5

BYU
HAW 7.5

UTST
NMST 13.5

FRES
SDST -8

TROY
ARKST -17

MDTN
NTEX -5.5

ULM
FAU 7

SOMISS
HOU -12.5

GEO
LSU -13.5

VT
CLEM 7

MSU
WIS -9

NFL

PHI
SEA 2.5

OAK
MIA -3

ATL
HOU 0

TEN
BUF 0

KC
CHI -9

NYJ
WAS 3.5

CIN
PIT -8

CAR
TB -3.5

DEN
MIN

IND
NE -21

BAL
CLE 7.5

DAL
ARI 7.5

GB
NYG 8

STL
SF -14

DET
NO -9.5

SD
JAC 1.5

Week 13 Review

2011-11-29T09:14:00.000-06:00

Saints crush, so JR and MT push at 11-4 for the weekly crown. $100 on the line for next week, the final week of NCAA Football.

Week 13 W L %

JR 11 4 73.3%

MT 11 4 73.3%

JG 10 5 66.7%

MR 10 5 66.7%

GR 10 5 66.7%

TN 10 5 66.7%

AW 9 6 60.0%

MC 9 6 60.0%

SS 9 6 60.0%

CP 9 6 60.0%

JH 9 6 60.0%

MH 8 7 53.3%

LW 8 7 53.3%

MO 8 7 53.3%

RO 6 9 40.0%

GT 6 9 40.0%

MS 0 0 #DIV/0!

59.6% for the week...wow, nice rebound. 55% in NCAA and a crazy high 65% in NFL this week. Hopefully that's a good omen going into the all NFL all the time portion of the schedule after this week.

YTD W L %

TN 109 86 55.9%

MR 108 87 55.4%

MO 107 88 54.9%

JH 106 89 54.4%

CP 105 90 53.8%

SS 104 91 53.3%

GR 103 92 52.8%

MT 102 93 52.3%

MH 99 96 50.8%

JR 98 97 50.3%

RO 96 99 49.2%

GT 95 100 48.7%

AW 95 100 48.7%

LW 94 101 48.2%

JG 94 101 48.2%

MC 93 102 47.7%

MS 56 139 28.7%

51.5% for the YTD records. TN has a 1 game lead right now over MR and 2 games over MO. The top 9 guys are separated by 10 games or less.

NCAA W L %

MO 77 51 60.2%

MR 80 55 59.3%

CP 78 57 57.8%

GR 70 53 56.9%

SS 71 54 56.8%

TN 74 60 55.2%

JH 69 58 54.3%

GT 52 51 50.5%

RO 59 59 50.0%

MH 67 68 49.6%

LW 43 44 49.4%

MT 52 56 48.1%

AW 53 60 46.9%

JR 53 65 44.9%

JG 47 61 43.5%

MC 54 71 43.2%

MS 32 54 37.2%

52% is the YTD mark in NCAA. MO leads the way at 60.2%.

NFL W L %

JR 45 32 58.4%

MT 50 37 57.5%

TN 35 26 57.4%

MC 39 31 55.7%

JH 37 31 54.4%

JG 47 40 54.0%

MH 32 28 53.3%

AW 42 40 51.2%

RO 37 40 48.1%

LW 51 57 47.2%

SS 33 37 47.1%

GT 43 49 46.7%

MR 28 32 46.7%

GR 33 39 45.8%

CP 27 33 45.0%

MO 30 37 44.8%

MS 24 85 22.0%

50.8% is our NFL mark. JR leads by percentage points over MT.

The final week of College Football is upon us - the lines for all the games will be coming out shortly.

Week 13 Update

2011-11-28T09:26:00.002-06:00

Great week by most everyone, unfortunatley no one will profit off of it.

MT is our leader in the clubhouse at 11-4, but JR and JG are both 10-4 and I have NO and JG has NYG tonight. Since the line is 6.5, one of us will win and tie MT at 11-4.

$100 on the line for Championship Week.

Full recap tomorrow after MNF.

All Picks and Current Records

2011-11-26T14:45:00.000-06:00

Hey Guys -

Sorry - didn't get a chance to send these out yesterday...here are all the picks for the week:

JR: KENT PITT WKY IND MN PSU UCLA DET MIA BAL MIN TEN OAK KC NO

JG: FSU PSU MSU OHIOST TEX ISU ARK AUB MIA MIN CLE BUF CAR CHI NYG

MR: PSU MSU OHIOST MN ISU A&M PITT ARK ALA SC MIA OAK GB SF CIN

AW: PSU MSU MN HOU TROY LSU FLA NEV GB SF MIN BUF CAR DAL HOU

GR: BC PSU MN ISU HOU STAN USC ARK SC GB BAL NO TB SEA PIT

MH: CLEM MN NEB NW MICH PUR WIS LSU FLA ALA GB BAL SEA HOU ATL

MC: ND KENT OHIO EMU ARK GB BAL SEA NO TB BUF CAR MIA OAK DEN

SS: MN OHIOST TEX OK BUFF BOISE USC WASH AUB VAN NO OAK DAL CIN WAS

RO: NEB PSU A&M TROY LSU FLA HAW NO BAL SEA CAR HOU ATL CHI DET

TN: VIR PSU MN OHIOST NW A&M ISU PITT KENT WY CAR HOU OAK GB MIA

MT: PSU OHIOST MSU IOWA ORE ARK GEO CAR OAK GB BAL MIN CLE TEN KC

GT: VT OHIOST MSU NEB OK BOISE ORE ALA BAL SEA ATL DET DAL TB JAC

MS: X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

CP: PSU IOWA PUR BAY HOU TOL COLST WASH STAN ASU BAL GB MIN CHI WAS

LW: VT PUR BAY SYR HOU BOISE USC CAL LSU TN GB DAL HOU PIT PHI

JH: WF PSU BAY TEX HOU WY STAN UCLA ARK SC HOU BAL CHI KC CIN

MO: PSU PUR OHIOST MN LOU RUT HOU UAB WMU WY HOU PIT DET CAR SF

Here are the records for the week so far: (2:45pm on Saturday)

JR 3 2

JG 4 1

MR 5 3

AW 4 2

GR 4 1

MH 4 2

MC 4 3

SS 2 2

RO 3 2

TN 4 3

CP 4 2

LW 4 3

MO 4 3

MT 5 2

GT 4 2

MS 0 0

JH 3 1

Good Luck!

Friday Morning Update

2011-11-25T08:55:00.000-06:00

I had a tough time deciding between LIONS or TEX yesterday...I chose poorly, so I'm not leading at this point...but here's who is:

JG 2-0
GR 2-0
MH 2-0
CP 2-0
JH 2-0
MT 2-0
MC 3-1

Lots of football today - I'll send out the full preview later today. First, I've got Xmas card pictures at 11am, so I'm going to miss the first 35 points from the Big Red today. WHO HATES IOWA!!?!?!

I'm counting on Uncle Rico to run for 3 scores and throw for 2 more...in the 1st half.

I also still like LSU today, no matter how large the line. And in a totally off the board pick, give me Wayzata over EP tonight, can't seem to find a line on this one...yet.

Happy Football!

My Picks

2011-11-24T09:37:00.000-06:00

Just want to get these out there so noone calls shenanigans...

DET
MIA
BAL
MIN
TEN
OAK
KC
NO

KENT
PITT
WKY
IND
GOPHERS
PSU
UCLA

Still waiting on a couple more guys to get me their picks - I'll send out the total recap tomorrow morning for the weekend.

NEED PICKS FROM...

2011-11-24T08:34:00.000-06:00

Happy Turkey Day fellas!

I'm still missing picks from a few of you - I know it's a tough week, so here's the deal.

1) Get me your picks by NOON TODAY before the NFL kicks off

or

2) Exclude all THUR/FRI games and get me your picks tomorrow for only the weekend games.

You won't want to miss a week if you are in the running for the overall title because no picks submitted gets you a record of 1 less win than the last place guy for the week...which equated to 1-14 LW.

NEED PICKS FROM:

ROE
BOMB
TAIT
M.THOMAS
SETNICKER
LUKE W.

T-Day Weekend Stuff

2011-11-23T14:22:00.000-06:00

So I have another hour or so to burn, why not throw something out on the old Football Challenge site. Also, can you believe there are no games tonight? WTF!?!?! This is the first day in the last 3+ weeks without a football game of some kind...I think that's a record.

It's going to be random...here we go:

1. DickRod is back! It's been a tough year without him, so he's back at Arizona for next season. I actually think this might be a good hire for the Cats. He failed in MICH because he tried to change a team that was successful at playing regular B10 football, and his defenses were some of the worst in recent memory. He won at WV because his offense was unique and dominated against slower, poorer defenses in the Big East. He also put out a bunch of very good defenses while at WV. For me, AZ is much more similar to the WV spot than the MICH spot. They are not a national power and they don't have a great legacy. I think there's plenty of speed and talent there, but obviously what they've been doing is not working. In a league like the Pac-12 where defense is optional in most every game, I like how his offense fits in. If he can find a competant DC to bring all that speed back to the D like it had in the mid-90's, then they could be in business. I still don't really care for the guy, but I think it's the right fit this time around. They'll win more games next year, even in a transition year, than the 3 or 4 they've won this year.

2. Another deal that is basically done is Urban Meyer to OHIOST and Luke Fickell back to UFC. I love this and hate this for different reasons. First, I love it because Meyer rocks as a coach and will bring OHIOST back in a hurry and put the Vadgers back into their spot in the Leaders division (not winning). Not that I'm an OHIOST fan by any means, but having them as a good team every year brings credibility to the B10 and keeps the Vadgers down, so it's a good thing. I hate this move because Urban basically just lied to everyone when he quit for the 2nd time at FLA last year. He just wanted to be done with that job and wanted to be a big-time free agent that would be brought up for every major opening in the country. It's easy to tell that he has a huge ego if you listen/watch him on ESPN on Saturdays. The old excuse of "taking time to watch my daughter's college games and hanging out with the fam" are such BS. Maybe he really felt that way for about 2 days, then he got it out of his system and realized he doesn't want to do anything but coach. That's the way all these guys are - once they get out of it they want back in. I'm sure he didn't see the Tressel scandal coming, but it's a perfect fit for him to get back in at a power school and dominate once again, and he will.

3. Another coach topic, and this one is great. Tulane is looking for a coach, and there is mutual interest with them and the legendary TE coach himself, current sideline reporter extraordinaire...TE Timmy Brew. How any school could look at the mess he left in MN and think, "yeah, this is the guy we want to turn our program around," is beyond me. I don't get what the draw to TE Timmy could be. Clearly Tulane didn't see that nobody even sniffed at him this offseason while he was unemployed, so why would you do that? It would be great to follow, I know I'd enjoy it. I tried and wanted to believe in his BS for about 4 years, but there comes a point where you realize it just isn't going to happen like he preaches. I'm not going to go on another Brew rant, god knows we've all had enough of those, but with all the other possibilities out there why would this guy even come close to being on the list? Good luck Tulane - for comedy I hope it happens, but for the fate of your program I hope it doesn't.

4. One final coaching note, I promise it's the last one. Ole Miss has an opening since they fired the Rev. Houston Nutt. Names I'm seeing linked to that job include SOMISS's Larry Fedora (also once rumored to be a candidate here) and HOU Kevin Sumlin (also a candidate here). It's crazy, but OLE MISS is actually a very similar situation to my beloved Gophers. They are in the SEC West and deal with ALA, LSU, ARK, and AUB every single year. This is by far the toughest division in the toughest conference in football. So it's not likely that you'll be seeing any SEC titles any time soon. But there is the rich football tradition at OLE MISS that has everyone believing that they will one day be able to compete again with the big dogs and should be able to but they just have to find the right guy to do it. Does this sound familiar? Their coaching hires and fires have been bizarre to say the least. They had David Cutcliffe, current DUKE HC, who did nothing but win 8-9 games per year and take them to bowl after bowl. Well, that wasn't good enough so they canned him after another bowl season...(MASE?). Then they decided they could only win be bringing in the best players, so they hired recruiting guru Ed Orgeron. He couldn't coach at all, but recruiting was better...and the team sucked for his entire tenure. They had a few close calls and minor upsets, but overall it was a disaster and the program was in worse shape when he left...(BREW?). After Cajun Ed they went to the Reverend Houston Nutt. He had a nice run at ARK, and is all in all a good football coach. But he's as slimy as they come - even for College Football in the South he's considered a slimeball...and that's saying something. He over-recruits like nobody, accepting 30-45 players each class and then deciding on signing day which ones will actually be accepted and get the scholarships. Anyway, he came in and won with the big-time recruits that Orgeron had left him, but since then has failed in a big way. So where does this program go from here? For Fedora and Sumlin, my question is why would you want this job? With the uncertain alignment and bowl/playoff system that will be here once all the super-conferences are formed, does it make sense to leave your current cake job where you'll win 9-11 games per year and be considered a genius and the next big thing? What happens when you go to OLE MISS and go 2-10 next year, then 4-8 and everyone is calling for your head. This thing will not be turned around fast when you have 5-6 automatic L's on your slate every year. I think the best they can do is to try and take a chance on a big-time coordinator that can spark the club...a la James Franklin at VANDY. Wow, didn't plan on 500 words about OLE MISS, but whatever.

5. Hawaii - ruh-roh Raggy. Point shaving scandal in full effect in the tropical paradise of Hawaii. It's still very foggy at this point, but there is an investigation going on, the Tulane game this week has been pulled off the board, and people sound very nervous. From what I've read, it goes back to the Colt Brennan days and may have continued up through this current season. Players shaving points, coaches?, administration? Too early to tell, but this looks bad right now. Anybody all of a sudden like Brew's future Tulane team this week at +20 - no games get pulled off of our board!!

5 topics - I think that's my limit. Enjoy the games - don't forget to send me your picks.

Week 13 Lines

2011-11-22T13:03:00.000-06:00

Missing a couple NFL games and a NCAA game right now. Please be sure to send picks over by THUR at NOON when the games start - I would prefer tomorrow if possible so I have a chance to compile everything. One NCAA game tonight if anyone is interested...please let me know.

I'll be sending out updates throughout the Holiday weekend.

MIAOH
OHIO -7.5

TEX
A&M -7.5

LOU
USF -3

EMU
NILL -20.5

KENT
TEM -18

BGU
BUFF 1.5

IOWA
NEB -10.5

HOU
TULSA 3.5

AKR
WMU -28

TOL
BALLST 11.5

ARK
LSU -14

COL
UTAH -21

BC
MIA -16

PITT
WV -10.5

UTEP
UCF -10

CAL
ASU -5.5

RUT
UCONN 3

GEO
GT 5.5

MSU
NW 7

OHIOST
MICH -8.5

CIN
SYR 4

RICE
SMU -16.5

TN
UK 8

MARY
NCST -12.5

TROY
WKY -4.5

WY
BOISE -33.5

NEV
UTST 1

ALA
AUB 19.5

PUR
IND 9.5

ILL
MN 12.5

DUKE
NC -12.5

VAN
WF -1

TT
BAY -10

VT
VIR 5.5

PSU
WIS -18.5

ECU
MARSH -1

MIZZ
KAN 22.5

FIU
MDTN 10

OREST
ORE -29

UAB
FAU 7

MEM
SOMISS -36

NMST
LT -21.5

AF
COLST 16.5

FSU
FLA 3

OLE
MISST -17.5

WASU
WASH -6.5

CLEM
SC -2.5

ULL
AZ

ISU
OK -29

ND
STAN -7

SJST
FRES -5.5

UCLA
USC -16.5

SDST
UNLV 14.5

TULANE
HAW -20

NFL

GB
DET 6

MIA
DAL -9

SF
BAL -4

MIN
ATL -10.5

HOU
JAC 3.5

TB
TEN -3

ARI
STL

CLE
CIN -7.5

BUF
NYJ -9

CAR
IND 3

WAS
SEA -4

CHI
OAK -3.5

NE
PHI

DEN
SD -7

PIT
KC 12

NYG
NO -6.5

Week 12 Review

2011-11-22T09:37:00.000-06:00

That was a fun one last night, I think I watched about 4 plays.

Week 12 W L %

JR 10 5 66.7%

TN 8 7 53.3%

CP 8 7 53.3%

JG 7 8 46.7%

AW 7 8 46.7%

RO 7 8 46.7%

LW 7 8 46.7%

MH 6 9 40.0%

MC 6 9 40.0%

MO 6 9 40.0%

MT 6 9 40.0%

GR 5 10 33.3%

MR 4 11 26.7%

GT 4 11 26.7%

JH 4 11 26.7%

SS 2 13 13.3%

MS 0 0 #DIV/0!

Only 3 guys up over .500 this week, as a group we hit a brutal 40.4%, which is our worst week of the entire season.

YTD W L %

TN 99 81 55.0%

MO 99 81 55.0%

MR 98 82 54.4%

JH 97 83 53.9%

CP 96 84 53.3%

SS 95 85 52.8%

GR 93 87 51.7%

MH 91 89 50.6%

MT 91 89 50.6%

RO 90 90 50.0%

GT 89 91 49.4%

JR 87 93 48.3%

LW 86 94 47.8%

AW 86 94 47.8%

MC 84 96 46.7%

JG 84 96 46.7%

MS 56 124 31.1%

We have officially fallen below 50% for the year as a group...49.7%. The log jam at the top continues with the top 11 guys all within 10 games of each other. After back to back 4 win weeks for MR, we have new leaders...TN and MO are tied at 55%, 1 game ahead of MR.

NCAA W L %

MO 71 47 60.2%

MR 73 52 58.4%

CP 73 52 58.4%

SS 65 50 56.5%

TN 69 55 55.6%

GR 63 51 55.3%

JH 63 54 53.8%

RO 57 54 51.4%

MH 62 63 49.6%

GT 47 48 49.5%

MT 49 52 48.5%

LW 37 40 48.1%

AW 49 56 46.7%

MC 53 67 44.2%

JR 49 62 44.1%

JG 42 58 42.0%

MS 32 54 37.2%

We are at 51% for the year in NCAA. 8 guys up over .500 in the amateurs.

NFL W L %

JR 38 31 55.1%

JH 34 29 54.0%

TN 30 26 53.6%

MT 42 37 53.2%

MH 29 26 52.7%

JG 42 38 52.5%

MC 31 29 51.7%

GT 42 43 49.4%

AW 37 38 49.3%

RO 33 36 47.8%

LW 49 54 47.6%

SS 30 35 46.2%

MR 25 30 45.5%

GR 30 36 45.5%

MO 28 34 45.2%

CP 23 32 41.8%

MS 24 70 25.5%

47.6% for the year in NFL, and 7 guys up over .500 on the year.

Only a couple weeks left for the college guys, then we'll move into full on NFL mode for the rest of the regular season.

Lines for the fast approaching Week 13 games will be coming out shortly.

Week 12 Update

2011-11-21T09:20:00.000-06:00

Victory cigar has been lit...do you believe in miracles? Yes, yes I do.

MNF is meaningless tonight, well, for deciding the actual overall weekly champ at least.

JR at 10-5 is your weekly winner, another 1st timer for the season.

We do have some drama, kind of, for MNF. SS lost on SD so is sitting at 1-13 for the week. He has NE -14.5 tonight. The all-time worst week ever is 3-12 held bty multiple people, including me about 3 weeks ago. So he's guaranteed to set the record, but will it be 2-13 or 1-14...tune in to find out.

I'll get the lines out as early as I can on Tuesday so you have time to get them back without avoiding the family on Thanksgiving Day. It's a tough week for timelines, but a great week for football.

Good Luck tonight Steve!!

Sunday Update

2011-11-20T15:51:00.000-06:00

Current records for the leaders...

JR 9-3
RO 5-4
TN 7-6
CP 8-5

Lots of action left. JR has SD, TEN, ARI...if I hit all 3 I win, 2/3 leaves the door open for RO and CP.

Too many scenarios left with RO having 6 games still to go.

And SS is 1-12...sorry Steve, had to include this, it could be a record. Steve has SD and NE left in his quest for a record setting 1-14.

Good Luck!

Week 12 Preview

2011-11-17T16:12:00.000-06:00

Tons of football on tonight, and a special appearance by our favorite savior/QB...

Before we get to tonight's picks, here's what we have for the week:

JR: TT RUT MARSH RICE ARKST TN ECU LSU VIR UCLA BUF CLE ARI SD TEN

JG: VT BC MN IND NEB ISU OLE BUF ARI TEN NYJ TB CIN CHI KC

MR: GT MSU WIS OHIOST OKST MIZZ OK BOISE USC ARK NYJ SD CAR DAL OAK

AW: MARY WIS MN IOWA TEX LOU HOU FIU HAW NYJ OAK BUF JAC SEA ATL

GR: WIS MSU PUR PSU OKST OK ND ORE NYJ OAK DAL CHI GB NYG NE

MH: WIS MSU PUR MN OHIOST NEB NAVY BOISE STAN HAW OAK BUF SEA CIN SF

MC: NILL OHIO AKR EMU FAU UTST BUF CIN CAR ARI TB CLE DEN WAS STL

SS: VT WIS OHIOST OK UCONN USF BOISE STAN WASU ULM BUF NYJ NE SD MIN

RO: IOWA KST WASU LSU HAW BUF NE SD MIN STL SF DAL GB NYG DET

TN: VIR IOWA OHIOST KST OK OKST RUT HOU ARK GEO NE STL GB CIN CAR

MT: CLEM FSU WIS NEB IND OKST HOU UAB ORE DET NYJ TB OAK CHI KC

GT: CLEM FSU NC WIS NEB OKST HOU TCU ORE GB CIN CAR BUF NYG WAS

MS: X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

CP: WIS PUR PSU TT HOU RICE NILL COLST WASU LSU CIN NYG NYJ TB SD

LW: GT NEB MSU NW KST OK UCONN LSU ARK TN SD GB NE MIN DEN

JH: GT CLEM VT WIS OK ORE STAN LSU ARK NE MIN NYJ BUF CHI ATL

MO: CLEM VIR MIA MSU KST BOISE AF ORE ARK MIN NYJ BUF GB STL JAC

THURSDAY NIGHT

SOMISS -21.5 at UAB
You know I still think UAB is terrible and SOMISS is on a mission to win the CUSA title. After UAB, SOMISS has to host the dreaded MEM team next week before the CUSA title fight with HOU. So I see how they could let down and look past these next 2 cupcakes...but UAB is just too terrible, even at home. I'll take SOMISS by 34 tonight.

NC +13 at VT
Another road team? Yep. Totally against what I used to do on Thursday nights, but clearly that wasn't really working. This one should end pretty close to the number, but I'll call for a NC cover and lose by 10.

MARSH -13 at MEM
The trifecta of NCAA road teams tonight with MARSH housing a brutal MEM team. Only giving 13 is a bad number here, MARSH should win by 30 as they push for a bowl bid. MEM lost their last chance at a win last week when UAB beat them...MARSH beat UAB by 45.

SAN-CHEESE at TEBOW
I stayed as far away from this one as I could. I never pick a bad QB like San-Cheese on the road on a short week. They just lose their division title game last Sunday night vs. NE, they take MON off, practice for DEN on TUES, and head to DEN on WED...not the ideal week for a team struggling on offense. I know it shouldn't be close, but this Tebow cat is starting to make me believe. I hope you all saw Fox's comments yesterday about how they have to run this kind of option QB running offense because if they had Tebow run a regular offense they would be screwed! That's actually what he said...thanks coach. He is what he is, and he's actually won a couple of games for the Broncos lately. DEN always has a nice homefield advantage anyway, so I'll call for this one to be very close and a DEN lose but cover 16-14.

SATURDAY

GOPHERS at NW -15.5
I think the Gophs will show up and play better than last week. However, NW is playing for a likely bowl bid because they probably won't beat Sparty next week. I think that motivation alone gets the job done for them...NW wins 42-21.

IND AT SPARTY -28
Sparty rolls again by 40+. IND is bad, why can't they be on the slate this year!!??

NEB at MICH -3
5 guys like NEB and none on MICH...well, I'm unofficially 1 I guess. I just haven't been impressed with NEB on either side of the ball all year long and MICH has actually been pretty steady. Weird what happens when you hire a real coach. MICH has been great at home as well, so I'll call for a Wolverine win 31-21.

WIS -13.5 at ILL
Anyone else think it's great that we get to host Zooker for his final farewell next week in their loss at the Bank? I love it. The guy is a maniac and a terrible coach. He walked out of his presser this week. He said at the beginning he would if anyone asked about his job, they did, he pointed and stared and left. Classy guy, I hear PSU is hiring. As much as I'd love for the Zooker to stick around and get the Slidin' Illini to rise up and ruin Becky's dream...it won't happen. They are a lost cause at this point. WIS wins 41-24.

*Side note, as much as I love calling the easterners Becky, I read a new favorite this week that I hadn't heard before...the Vagers...I like it and will likely use that from now on. Thank you.

IOWA -2.5 at PUR
Iowa still in search of that elusive 1st road win...hehehe. PUR has been tough at home, but coming off the OHIOST crazy win, I'm sure they'll not be showing up this weekend. They have 2 chances left to get bowl eligible, something I didn't expect out of the Boilers this year, Iowa and IND. Go Boilers!! Win them both! But I'll pick you yo lose this week just in case...IOWA 17-7 in a Ferentz Classic.

PSU +5.5 at OHIOST
I'm torn on this one. The determining factors are 1) do the PSU kids play well for JoePa and gain some momentum for the big one in Madison next weekend and 2) does OHIOST even try anymore and cling to their small B10 chances or do they fold up shop and wait for Urban Meyer to be announced as their new coach? Tough call, but with 2 offensively challenged teams I'll take points...OHIOST wins 16-14.

VAN at TN +1
Tennessee is a home underdog to VANDY. My god what is happening in Knoxville!! TN needs to win their last 2 to be bowl eligible, Vandy needs to beat TN or WF next week to be in. VAN played so well last week and they can't play up the underdog angle this week...both bad signs for the smaaat kids. TN hasn't played well since SEPT, so maybe being a dog to your special little sister in Nashville will light a fire and get them to show on Saturday. I have to take TN...27-14.

LSU -30 at OLE
Sell me on OLE MISS right now: we just fired our coach, we have nothing to play for, we're hosting the #1 team in the nation, we suspended our starting QB and RB for the game, we have our biggest and only meaningful game of the season next week in the Egg Bowl. LSU wins 55-0.

USC +16.5 at ORE
I hate to admit it, but the Trojans are playing better than I expected this year. The Ducks just jumped back into the title hunt with their crushing of STAN last week, so I just don't think they'll be jacked to host a sneaky under the radar USC team. This one could be close...I'll take QUACK 34-28.

Other games I love in NCAA this week:
ND -24.5
VIR +18
TT +17
RUT +2.5
RICE -12.5
HOU -20.5
ECU +8
TEM -13
KENT -6.5
BOISE -19
WASH -3
ASU -14
ARKST -11
NMST +22.5

I did really well last week on these...will it continue?

SUNDAY

The Football Challenge is usually decided on Sunday because each of our records week to week in the NFL are so unpredictable.

DEN +5 - see above
CAR +8 - might put a scare into the Kitties before the big one next week.
GB - heard a Packer fan discussing the MNF game on Tuesday...it was comedy. "It's like Rodgers is just unstoppable, the offense is so amazing I don't think anyone knows what to do with them. I feel sorry for the rest of the NFL knowing that we're going to be this good for the next 10 years and there's nothing anyone can do to stop us. The only question is if we want to take a loss on purpose before the playoffs so we don't have that hype like NE did."

Thanks for reminding me why I can't deal with you Packer fans. It's so f'ing obnoxious trying to listen to these people that the only option is to avoid them all together. I'm glad it's Repeat or Bust for them this year, because I see a lot of team that could knock them off. They have had no major injury issues to their core guys and they have played an easy schedule. Just like the Vagers, build them up to the point that they think they are invincible and then slap them in the face and bring them back to earth with one sad loss. It will happen, just wait for it.

Anyway, yes, I'll take TB +15.5 this week because F U GB!
I'll take WAS at +9 this week even though I think they might be the worst team in the league. You just can't give that much on the road with DAL.
BUF +1 at MIA...is this a joke? MIA is still horrible, and they are even worse than that at home. Give me BILLS until I run out of money or you run out of paper.
JAC-CLE, this should be a thriller. CLE at home..4-2 CLE in a beauty.
OAK at MIN - Purple team shows up at home after the MNF embarassment and wins by a FG.
CIN getting 8.5 at BAL, have to take the Bungals even though BAL will be playing inspired ball (probably) after that brutal L last week.
SEA-STL, another doozy. Give me SEA, why, no idea.
ARI +11 at SF, I don't think the 49ers are a "give double digits" kind of team yet. I have no doubt they win, but old Skelton will sneak one in for a cover...SF 24-17.
SD+4 at CHI - not exactly sure why I like the Chargers this week, but I took them. This just feels like a FG game to me, so getting 4 is a good thing. SD needs to make a stand, CHI is coming off a couple of big wins.
TEN +6.5 at ATL: once again I will ask, who thinks ATL is so good? TEN will play physical and keep this one close. I'll say ATL in a squeaker 20-19.
PHI without Vick at NYG...yeah, PHILLY done. NYG roll 27-10.
MNF, NE giving 14.5 against Tyler Palko and the nameless Cheifs roster. Stay the hell away from this one, but if I had to pick it, and I do, I'll take Brady to win and cover 35-16.

Good Luck this week Guys - NCAA is winding down so enjoy these final few Saturdays before the Bowl Season!!

Need Week 12 Picks from...

2011-11-17T07:53:00.000-06:00

BOMB
STEVE
M.THOMAS
SETNICKER
PEYTON

Please send over by Noon today.

Also, there were a few errors in the NCAA and NFL standings I sent out on Tuesday. Thanks to Hammer for pointing this out. One of my formulas was incorrect...the overall totals were fine but the NCAA/NFL breakdowns were off. These have been fixed, so here are the actual YTD updated standings for those:

NCAA W L %

SS 64 41 61.0%

MR 70 45 60.9%

MO 65 44 59.6%

CP 67 48 58.3%

GR 61 45 57.5%

JH 61 47 56.5%

TN 63 51 55.3%

GT 45 41 52.3%

MH 60 55 52.2%

MT 47 45 51.1%

RO 53 53 50.0%

LW 32 35 47.8%

AW 44 52 45.8%

MC 52 62 45.6%

JG 39 54 41.9%

JR 41 60 40.6%

MS 32 54 37.2%

NFL W L %

JR 36 28 56.3%

JH 32 25 56.1%

TN 28 23 54.9%

JG 38 34 52.8%

MT 38 35 52.1%

MC 26 25 51.0%

RO 30 29 50.8%

AW 35 34 50.7%

GT 40 39 50.6%

MH 25 25 50.0%

MO 28 28 50.0%

SS 29 31 48.3%

MR 24 26 48.0%

LW 47 51 48.0%

GR 27 32 45.8%

CP 21 29 42.0%

MS 24 55 30.4%

Thanks.

Week 12 Lines

2011-11-15T12:28:00.000-06:00

Games again this week on TUES, WED, THUR, FRI...send me your 15 best by NOON on THURSDAY.

Thanks.

BALLST
NILL -16.5

OHIO
BGU 5.5

WMU
MIAOH -1.5

SOMISS
UAB 21.5

NC
VT -13

MARSH
MEM 13

TOL
CMU 14

OKST
ISU 27

LOU
UCONN 1

MN
NW -15.5

IND
MSU -28

NEB
MICH -3

CIN
RUT 2.5

WIS
ILL 13.5

AKR
BUFF -18

IOWA
PUR 2.5

KAN
A&M -30

UK
GEO -29.5

GT
DUKE 10

ARMY
TEM -13

EMU
KENT -6.5

NM
WY -25.5

ARKST
MDTN 11

TULSA
UTEP 13.5

MARY
WF -12.5

CLEM
NCST 10

PSU
OHIOST -5.5

WASH
OREST 3

TULANE
RICE -12.5

SMU
HOU -20.5

MISST
ARK -13.5

MIA
USF 1.5

TT
MIZZ -17

FAU
TROY -14.5

COLST
TCU -35.5

NAVY
SJST 5.5

BC
ND -24.5

LT
NEV -7.5

FIU
ULM 1

UTST
IDAHO 8

UTAH
WASU 5.5

UNLV
AF -22.5

WKY
NTEX 2.5

VAN
TN 1

UCF
ECU 8

LSU
OLE 30

VIR
FSU -18

COL
UCLA -14

OK
BAY 13

KST
TEX -7.5

USC
ORE -16.5

BOISE
SDST 19

AZ
ASU -14

CAL
STAN -20.5

NMST
BYU -22.5

FRES
HAW -6

NFL

NYJ
DEN 5 THUR

CAR
DET -8

TB
GB -15.5

DAL
WAS 9

BUF
MIA -1

JAC
CLE 0

OAK
MIN 0

CIN
BAL -8.5

SEA
STL -1

ARI
SF -11

SD
CHI -4

TEN
ATL -6.5

PHI
NYG -3

KC
NE -14.5

Week 11 Review and Standings

2011-11-15T09:30:00.000-06:00

Congrats to Hammer for winning his first $50 of the year - the Purple meltdown made it happen and prevented a push to next week.

Best sign of the night, "HEY GREEN BAY, WHERE'S UR WNBA TITLE?"

I guess that's what we have to resort to at this point. What a pathetic excuse for a performance that was last night. Unprepared, unmotivated, and unwatchable. Vikings Football 2011. I get it, Rodgers is good, but seriously those 2 clowns in the booth last night could barely get out a sentence without peeing all over themselves. Once the game got unwatchable...1st quarter...I really started listening to what they were saying and I realized just how stupid and pointless about 90% of their comments actually are. "The thing with Starks here is he really wants to score." Really? Thanks for that. "Watch how Rodgers keeps his eyes up...amazing." Where the hell is he supposed to look? I actually had to watch the 2nd half on mute to try and tolerate the stupidity...and it was nice. I think I'm watching all MNF on mute from now on to avoid these morons.

Week 11 W L %

JH 11 4 73.3%

JR 10 5 66.7%

TN 10 5 66.7%

MH 9 6 60.0%

SS 8 7 53.3%

CP 8 7 53.3%

GT 7 7 50.0%

AW 7 8 46.7%

GR 7 8 46.7%

MC 7 8 46.7%

MO 7 8 46.7%

MT 7 8 46.7%

RO 6 9 40.0%

LW 6 9 40.0%

JG 5 10 33.3%

MR 4 11 26.7%

MS 0 0 #DIV/0!

Only 5 guys broke the .500 makr this week...a little worse than usual. We were 2 gameS below 50% for the week at (119-121). NCAA was at 44%, and NFL finished at 57%...although we were at 66% before the 0-13 last night.

YTD W L %

MR 94 71 57.0%

SS 93 72 56.4%

MO 93 72 56.4%

JH 93 72 56.4%

TN 91 74 55.2%

CP 88 77 53.3%

GR 88 77 53.3%

MH 85 80 51.5%

MT 85 80 51.5%

GT 85 80 51.5%

RO 83 82 50.3%

LW 79 86 47.9%

AW 79 86 47.9%

MC 78 87 47.3%

JR 77 88 46.7%

JG 77 88 46.7%

MS 56 109 33.9%

We now have a huge log-jam at the top with MR's 4 win week. The top 5 are now separated by 1-3 games with 7 weeks left. Keep in mind we only have a couple more weeks of picking NCAA and NFL, once NCAA moves into Bowl season we'll only be picking 10 NFL games per week.

NCAA W L %

SS 64 41 61.0%

MR 70 45 60.9%

MO 65 44 59.6%

CP 67 48 58.3%

GR 59 47 55.7%

TN 63 51 55.3%

GT 45 41 52.3%

MH 60 55 52.2%

MT 47 45 51.1%

RO 53 53 50.0%

AW 50 50 50.0%

JH 51 52 49.5%

LW 32 35 47.8%

MS 44 50 46.8%

MC 52 62 45.6%

JR 41 60 40.6%

JG 28 54 34.1%

SS took over the overall NCAA W% lead from MR. I also went 5-3 in NCAA for my first winning college week since mid-Sept!!! MR took a 2-8 in NCAA last week and is still sitting over 60%.

NFL W L %

JH 42 20 67.7%

JG 49 34 59.0%

JR 36 28 56.3%

TN 28 23 54.9%

MT 38 35 52.1%

MC 26 25 51.0%

RO 30 29 50.8%

GT 40 39 50.6%

MH 25 25 50.0%

MO 28 28 50.0%

GR 29 30 49.2%

SS 29 31 48.3%

MR 24 26 48.0%

LW 47 51 48.0%

AW 29 36 44.6%

CP 21 29 42.0%

MS 12 59 16.9%

JH has jumped to the front of the NFL pack hitting a ridiculous 67.7% so far...unreal.

Week 12 lines will be coming out later today.

Week 11 Update

2011-11-14T09:17:00.000-06:00

HAMMER is leading the way at 11-4, but JR and TN are both 10-4 with the Purple +15.5 tonight. A Purple cover makes it a push into next week, a GB cover wins $50 for Hammer.

Full standings and results coming tomorrow.

Week 11 Preview

2011-11-10T21:05:00.000-06:00

I know what you're saying to yourself right now...is this really the most recent picture of us getting the AXE. Sadly...yes, yes it is. I watched this 2004 game at Joe Sensors in Roseville, my first year out of school, and my only year in the last 12 without season tix. After that game, and 25 cocktails I called up G-Reg and told him we're getting tickets next year. Maybe it was because I had 12 Red Bull-Vodka's running through my blood, but I was ready to get back on board officially and take the pain for moments like this. I remember what it was like to beat the pretenders to the east, and I will feel it again. This week? There is a chance.

PICKS
JR: WF MIA NEB MSU MN KST WASH NEV OAK PIT NO HOU TEN DET MIN

JG: VT FSU NEB MSU MN TEX TT AUB OAK NO TEN MIN CLE WAS NYG

MR: FSU NEB ILL OKST BAY ND AF STAN LSU ALA OAK MIN PIT DET NYJ

AW: GT NEB MSU MN MICH TEX SDST TROY MIN PIT HOU JAC ATL STL NE

GR: WF MSU MN MICH TEX BAY HOU ORE ALA MIN NYJ NO SD BAL CHI

MH: MSU MICH NEB NW OHIOST WIS PITT BOISE STAN WASH NO CHI NE TEN CIN

MC: NEB IOWA MEM ND OHIO AKR ARKST NEV FRES MIN JAC ATL OAK DEN BUF

SS: VT CLEM VIR NEB TEX TULSA TOL BOISE ORE LT MIN NO CHI PIT NYG

RO: TEX OKST A&M BYU STAN UTAH TROY ALA LSU NO BUF NE SD HOU DET

TN: MIA MSU MN KST HOU RICE SOMISS MIAOH TCU STAN NO NE MIN CHI PIT

MT: WF MSU NEB MICH OHIOST STAN ALA AUB NO NE MIN CHI BUF SD TEN

GT: VT MSU NEB A&M CIN STAN AUB ARK MIN BUF JAC DEN WAS SEA SF

MS: X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

CP: WIS ILL TEX SYR HOU TCU UNLV ORE COL ASU MIN SEA NE OAK CLE

LW: MN TULANE STAN ALA LSU MIN SEA NE JAC DEN SF SD PIT DET CAR

JH: VT MSU KST OKST HOU BOISE WKY ALA ARK NE PIT CHI TEN NYG BAL

MO: VT MN HOU SOMISS OHIO BOISE WY ALA NE PIT BAL MIN STL IND KC

POPULAR PICKS
VT-5
HOU-5
TEX-6
NEB-9
MSU-9!!! YEP, F*** IOWA! GO SPARTY!!!
MN-7
ALA-7
STAN-7

OAK-5
PIT-8
NO-8
TEN-5
CHI-6
NE-9
MIN-13!!!!!

And the Raiders just scored!!!! I'm thinking this could be a good week!! (trying to set a record for !!! used in one post)

GAME PREVIEWS AND PICKS

VT +1 AT GT
Huge game for the conference title, so both should have no problem being motivated. So it comes down to personnel, and I'll take VT and their D over GT in a tight one 27-22.

NEB +3 AT PSU
Pretty standard week in Happy Valley, the whole country has been watching their every move, fired the coach who has been there for 46 years, talk about folding the program...you know typical stuff. Team Husker caught a break this week and should be playing against a distracted and disinterested team and fan base with nothing but anger and disappointment and complete apathy for this game. NEB wins 23-7.

SPARTY -3 AT IOWA
Unmotivated and exhausted Sparty almost took one in the teeth against the Maroon and Gold last week. They survived, but as punishment, they are forced to go to the land of meth and pig $hit for the weekend...sorry guys. Good news is, motivation should not be a problem this weekend with a potential B10 Division crown on the line. A Sparty win will make this very tough to screw up. Iowa is coming off an emotional W over an overrated MICH team and 2 big games in a row (yes, MN is a big game for them). I think luck has run out. Sparty plays D and runs the ball, two things that 2011 Iowa can't deal with. I like Sparty in a laugher that makes the Hogeye fans reignite the fire Ferentz passion...SPARTY 44-17.

WASH +13.5 AT USC
Steve Sarkisian always plays the Trojans tough. He's actually beat them the last couple of years, so how can his best WASH team be a 13.5 point dog against a very average USC team this weekend with ORE on deck for the Trojans? I don't get it. WASH gives them a scare but loses a close one 33-30.

ORE AT STAN -3
I think I've picked against STAN just about every single week this year. So in a game I most definitely want them to lose, I'll use some reverse psychology and pick them to win. This thing looks like a coin flip to me, what favors STAN is the revenge angle from last year's beat down and being at home with the Heisman winner under center. ORE is faster and should not find it tough to score a lot against this beat up STAN D, but in the end I'll go SMAAAAT Kids 41-37.

Sneaky Good Picks this week that I also think win:
UNLV -8.5
WKY +42
SOMISS -10.5
NEV -10
WASU +12.5
ARK -14
MEM +7.5 (yep, I'd take UNLV and MEM this week...wow)
SMU -7
WY +14
VAN -12.5
RICE +15.5
SYR +4

I'm full of knowledge this week...or something like that. I feel as good as a 38% NCAA Picker can at this point!

$$$NFL$$$

OAK +8 AT SD
8 is stupid high for a SD team that's only been overrated for about 4 years and an OAK team that's about ready to come together with their new QB. This is a FG game either way, I'll say SD on a comeback 23-20.

JAC at IND +3
I think the Colts get it done and get win #1 this week. Not sure why, maybe because JAC is so bad. COLTS win 13-10.

DEN AT KC -3.5
I guess Jesus is working on an option attack for this week. Well, this should finally end his season. Although I hate to be too negative, he did win impressively at OAK last week...maybe he's starting to come around? KC by a TD in this one 27-20.

PIT -3 at CIN
I like CIN a lot this year in the right spot...this is not that spot. PIT needs a win after blowing the BAL game, and they'll get one here. PIT 24-14.

BUF +5 at DAL
Not sure what to think about this one. I believe BUF is kind of a fluke and I think DAL is pretty good, but Romo's picks scare me from giving the points here. DAL wins a squeaker 31-29.

NO -1 AT ATL
This is way too low, NO is clearly a better team. ATL has been a real disappointment this year, and it will continue. NO 27-17.

STL AT CLE -1
Lesser of two evils in this one, CLE at home only needs to win by more than a point to cover...okay. CLE wins 5-2.

WAS +3.5 AT MIA
Miami wins once and now they are giving 3.5 to an NFL team? That does not make sense. I'll take a bad Skins team to win outright 23-21.

HOU -3 AT TB
HOU is a pretty good looking team right now, and they are starting to get healthy again. TB is up and down and this looks like an easy one...HOU 26-13.

TEN +3 AT CAR
Cam Newton has been a surprise, but they still don't win a lot of games. The Titans have been a disappointment, but I think they are still a playoff contender. I like TEN to win 24-20.

ARI AT PHI -??
PHI crushes, even though we still don't have a line I think they cover it. PHI 38-20.

BAL -8.5 AT SEA
BAL is rolling pretty good right now. SEA is one of the tougher places to play, but I think BAL eeks it out 24-14.

DET +1 at CHI
Lions get back on the radar with a statement game in CHI...31-21.

NYG at SF -3.5
Don't like this one either way, but I'm picking them all this week so I'll take 49ers with a couple bad Eli picks, which he's due for...21-17.

NE +0 AT NYJ
Brady off of 2 big L's in a row and the Jets off a nice win. I don't like it that Brady beat them earlier, they usually split these games, but I have to take a desperate Belichick and Brady to win 28-21.

PURPLE +15.5 AT GB
15.5!!!???!!?!?! That just seems silly. It's a rivalry game that was played to a 6 points finish a couple of weeks ago. Move 6 points for the road game and Purple should lose by 12-15...so 15.5 looks like a sure thing. I'm still not impressed with the GB D, obviously Rodgers is stupid good right now, but I don't think they are unbeatable. Purple team is off a bye and on the up and up with their health and their level of play recently...since the QB change. Have to like our chances...not a win but a cover GB 34-26.

Ooops, I forgot one game...

BECKY AT GOPHERS +28.5

Team Douche and the clan have pretty much thrown in the towel on this season. Since the SEPT National Title is apparently not a real recognized championship they have shifted their attention to other things. However, Team Kill is just starting to find it a little bit over the last couple of weeks. It's a rivalry, the home dog is getting over 4 TD's, the favorite is unmotivated, the dog is in revenge mode x7, WIS has never won more than their current streak of 3 straight in Minnesota, Bielema is a donkey, Kill is a God. What more is there to know? Yeah, their offense is really good, yep our D is not very good - but with a motivated group and Q playing QB like he has the last 6 quarters I think anything is possible.

BECKY WINS AGAIN...BUT IT'S THE LAST TIME...WIS 28-17.

It's going to be quite a weekend Gentlemen. PACK, BECKY, BECKY HOCKEY all on the hit list for the next few days...I'm hoping we take them down a notch and I never leave Dinkytown on Saturday night.

Enjoy it.

Need Week 11 Picks from...

2011-11-10T10:08:00.000-06:00

HEINERT
OLSON
M.THOMAS
SETNICKER
OGE

Please send them over today. Thanks. Week 11 Preview will be coming tonight - for the record, I have OAK +8 tonight...just in case I don't get the picks out before kickoff.

LINE UPDATE
FLA at SC -3.5

Still nothing on ARI at PHI for the NFL.

Week 11 Lines

2011-11-08T13:51:00.000-06:00

2 games without lines right now...SC-FLA in NCAA and ARI-PHI in NFL. Lots of MACtion this week as well, and THUR NFL starts. Get me your Tues-Wed picks before the games start if you want those games.

NILL
BGU 7 TUES

WMU
TOL -9.5 TUES

MIAOH
TEM -14 WED

OHIO
CMU 5 THUR

VT
GT -1 THUR

HOU
TULANE 33 THUR

USF
SYR 4 FRI

RICE
NW -15.5

PITT
LOU -3.5

TEX
MIZZ 1.5

MARSH
TULSA -17

NEB
PSU 3

WF
CLEM -19.5

WV
CIN -3.5

MSU
IOWA 3

OHIOST
PUR 7.5

FLA
SC

OKST
TT 18

UK
VAN -12.5

NCST
BC 2.5

BUFF
EMU -3

NTEX
TROY -8

KENT
AKR 6.5

BAY
KAN 17.5

WY
AF -14

AZ
COL 13.5

DUKE
VIR -8.5

ULL
ARKST -9.5

SJST
UTST -11

MIA
FSU -10

AUB
GEO -12.5

WIS
MN 28.5

MICH
ILL 3

A&M
KST 3

MDTN
ULM -5.5

NAVY
SMU -7

WASH
USC -13.5

TCU
BOISE -15.5

RUT
ARMY 8.5

UAB
MEM 7.5

TN
ARK -14

FAU
FIU -18.5

SDST
COLST 14.5

OREST
CAL -9.5

UCLA
UTAH -7.5

WKY
LSU -42

LT
OLE -1.5

MARY
ND -19

ALA
MISST 18

ORE
STAN -3

FRES
NMST 8.5

UCF
SOMISS -10.5

ECU
UTEP -3.5
\
IDAHO
BYU -19.5

UNLV
NM 8.5

HAW
NEV -10

ASU
WASU 12.5

OAK
SD -8

JAC
IND 3

DEN
KC -3.5

NFL

PIT
CIN 3 thur

BUF
DAL -5

NO
ATL 1

STL
CLE -1

WAS
MIA -3.5

HOU
TB 3

TEN
CAR -3

ARI
PHI

BAL
SEA 8.5

DET
CHI -1

NYG
SF -3.5

NE
NYJ 0

MIN
GB -15.5

Week 10 Review & Standings

2011-11-08T09:10:00.000-06:00

Another week, another new winner. Nobody has won twice this year....parity at it's finest.

WEEK 10 W L %

MO 12 3 80.0%

GT 11 4 73.3%

JG 10 5 66.7%

MR 10 5 66.7%

TN 9 6 60.0%

CP 9 6 60.0%

JH 9 6 60.0%

MH 8 7 53.3%

SS 8 7 53.3%

GR 7 8 46.7%

MC 7 8 46.7%

LW 7 8 46.7%

MT 7 8 46.7%

AW 4 11 26.7%

RO 4 11 26.7%

JR 3 12 20.0%

MS 0 0 #DIV/0!

Nice week Oge - $50 richer after a 12-3 performance. We hit 52.1% in total for the week, 56% in NCAA and another bad NFL week at 46%.

YTD W L %

MR 90 60 60.0%

MO 86 64 57.3%

SS 85 65 56.7%

JH 82 68 54.7%

TN 81 69 54.0%

GR 81 69 54.0%

CP 80 70 53.3%

MT 78 72 52.0%

GT 78 72 52.0%

RO 77 73 51.3%

MH 76 74 50.7%

LW 73 77 48.7%

JG 72 78 48.0%

AW 72 78 48.0%

MC 71 79 47.3%

MS 68 82 45.3%

JR 67 83 44.7%

We are at 52.1% YTD overall through 10 weeks of the Football Challenge. I'm actually below MS, the guy who hasn't even played in 4 of the weeks!! Wow. Back to the drawing board I guess. ROE continues to be our leader, shocking, with a 4 game lead over OGE. Looks like most of the LeRoy gang has it all figured out...most of us. We occupy 4 of the top 6 spots, and 17th. Sorry, I'm frustrated. I suck right now.

NCAA YTD W L %

MR 68 37 64.8%

MS 41 25 62.1%

SS 59 36 62.1%

MO 61 40 60.4%

CP 62 43 59.0%

GR 57 41 58.2%

TN 57 47 54.8%

GT 42 36 53.8%

MH 55 50 52.4%

MT 44 40 52.4%

LW 32 30 51.6%

JH 49 46 51.6%

RO 50 47 51.5%

AW 45 46 49.5%

MC 48 57 45.7%

JG 28 34 45.2%

JR 36 57 38.7%

54.9% in NCAA for the year - still in the black. This is clearly the group's strength so far. ROE still at almost 65%...very impressive.

NFL YTD W L %

JH 33 22 60.0%

JR 31 26 54.4%

TN 24 22 52.2%

MT 34 32 51.5%

MC 23 22 51.1%

MO 25 24 51.0%

RO 27 26 50.9%

GT 36 36 50.0%

JG 44 44 50.0%

MR 22 23 48.9%

SS 26 29 47.3%

MH 21 24 46.7%

LW 41 47 46.6%

GR 24 28 46.2%

AW 27 32 45.8%

CP 18 27 40.0%

MS 27 57 32.1%

49.6% YTD for NFL picks. MS's numbers are skewing this quite a bit because of the missed picks, but we're still below 50% either way.

Week 11 Lines will be coming today.

Week 10 Update

2011-11-07T12:43:00.000-06:00

We have a winner already, Oge takes home the $50 this week at an amazing 12-3. I was a close 17th at 3-12.

Tonight's game has no meaning for the weekly standings.

If you're not following the PSU Football story yet today...you should be. Bizarre, scary, sick stuff. It's going to be a tough one to smooth over with the entire Lion Nation.

And it's officially Becky week...yep, remember, the NCAA National Champs for September, that's them.

One other thing - I've had inquiries from quite a few of you about more guys that want to play next year. I'm all in for making this thing as big as we can, so just send me their name and email and I'll start making a list for next season. I won't put any cap on it - we'll just re-look at the payouts and rules a little to make sure it still works for everyone. Based on the talks I've had with a few of you, I think we could be up near 30! guys next year. Good Stuff.

Full weekly review coming tomorrow along with the lines for Week 11.

Week 10 Preview

2011-11-04T10:25:00.000-05:00

A day late, sorry about that. Sometimes job #1 actually gets in the way. We fared a little better last night going 3-2 overall. Here are the picks for the week:

JR: OREST A&M BAY SMU TOL EMU ASU ULL ARK ALA KC CLE BUF SEA SD

JG: FSU MN IND MICH NW KST KAN USC FLA LSU KC CLE TB NYG CHI

MR: OHIOST A&M TEX USC ORE FLA LSU ARK OLE TN NO ATL NYJ NE GB

AW: MARY MN MICH NEB TT UCF ARMY KENT OLE KC BUF SEA SD TEN PIT

GR: MICH TEX OKST OK ND TEM USC ORE LSU KC BUF PIT GB SF PHI

MH: MSU OHIOST IOWA WIS NEB BAY PITT NAVY ND UTAH ATL WAS TEN GB BAL

MC: SOMISS HOU KENT TOL EMU OHIO AKR ULL FIU UTST BUF SEA CLE TB NYG

SS: VIR WIS TEX OKST WV RICE NAVY TOL EMU LSU KC ATL NYJ WAS OAK

RO: NEB TEX OK ISU TCU BOISE UTAH OLE FLA ALA ATL BUF TB PIT TEN

TN: NW IOWA BAY CIN HOU COL ALA ARK VAN NMST OAK GB SF NE CHI

MT: MICH MN OK OKST ORE ARK OLE LSU GB SF BUF PIT TEN KC CLE

GT: MN NW OK OKST HOU BOISE ORE ARK SF TB NYJ SEA SD DEN ARI

MS: x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

CP: IOWA TEX MIZZ HOU TOL ORE ASU AZ LSU TN SEA GB BUF MIA IND

LW: MN WIS WY SDST LSU GB BUF IND PIT KC NE PHI NO HOU DAL

JH: MICH NEB MSU KST HOU USC STAN ARK ALA HAW GB NE NO HOU ATL

MO: VIR KST HOU TULSA MIAOH WY STAN ULL ARKST OLE ATL DAL MIA SF NYJ

POPULAR PICKS
At least 5 guys on each of these...
MN 5:1
TEX 5:1
MICH 5:2
OLE 5:0
HOU 6:0
ARK 6:0
LSU 7:4
ORE 5:0

KC 7:2
ATL 5:2
BUF 8:4
SF 5:1
SEA 5:2
GB 7:3
PIT 5:0

So at the rate we've been going, I'm guessing those are the plays you should make if you want to be in the red for the weekend. I have 4 of them...good sign?

Most teams have about 4 games left counting this week, so I will be looking at some of the conference races from here on out. First up, ROTEL and BARBASOL (also known as the Legends and Leaders).

IND (+28.5) at OHIOST
I know OHIOST is playing better, but to be giving 28.5 with an offense that really can't throw the football at all? Not to mention the fact that they are coming off the big WIS win and IND is coming off a beatdown at home vs. a bad NW team. It will probably be close to the number, but I'll say 27-7 OHIOST.

MICH at IOWA (+4)
The Captain has some 'splaining to do...

Assuming he still has his job on Saturday, Ferentz will likely lead his club to a win over MICH. This MICH club really hasn't proven much to me besides their freaky strange win over ND. Iowa is good at home and winless on the road and pigless for another year. Off their poor performance last weekend, I think they come out and win this one before losing their last 3. The only scary part, which I will be cheering for on Saturday, is Robinson vs. the Iowa D. Running QB's have always crushed the Ferentz defenses, and this guy is the ultimate running QB. He could turn the tide and provide the first quality B10 win for MICH. Best case scenario, MICH wins 31-28 with an Iowa cover.

PUR at WIS (-26)

Badger fans can put the gameday cruiser away for this weekend as they FINALLY get to play at home. Such BS scheduling by the B10, I can't believe they had to play on the road 2x in OCT on back to back weeks. So from the sound of it, WIS fans have pretty much cashed in their chips and called it a year at this point. But let's be logical here, it's PUR coming to town and WIS might be ready to unload on someone. I think WIS winning 66-14 is a reasonable guess.

NW at NEB (-18)

NW might have the worst defense in the league. Their offense is solid, but NEB might run for 500 yards against them this week. I feel like the Huskers are catching a little fire lately, and they may ride it to a Barbasol division title. I like NEB in this one 45-23.

GOPHERS at SPARTY (-28.5)

I stayed away from this one this week, which means I don't like the Gophs. I'm still coming down from the high of last weekend, so I can only imagine how the squad is feeling at this point. Sparty got their teeth kicked in at Lincoln, and they have to be ready to rebound on Saturday. Sparty has a very managable schedule the rest of the way, and they just need to hope for another NEB stumble. Maybe the Gophs caught a little confidence off of last week's win and hopefully can play a quality game to make it watchable, but the letdown factor is way too high for the Gophers right now and it likely will be over early. SPARTY crushes 41-10.

My PSU and NEB picks are still looking very strong. NEB has a couple of tough road games left and the Black Friday game with the southerners, but I think I'll take my chances on these two at this point.

POSSIBLE UPSETS?

5 games that I think might be more interesting than Vegas does...

NC at NCST (+4)

Rivalry game and a home dog...that's a combo I love right off the bat. Carolina comes in off a beatdown of WF and NCST just got smoked by FSU. NC has a young QB on the road...I'll call the upset for the 'Pack...24-21.

KAN (+13) at ISU

Kansas is terrible, so I didn't include this in my picks. But this is quite a letdown spot for ISU after going into Lubbock and winning 41-7. KAN has been getting pushed around by everyone they play, so taking them on the road is a scary idea. But they have performed so poorly that I think they are a little undervalued at this point. Both teams can't score, so anything could happen in this one. I'll say ISU wins a squeaker 24-23.

ND at WF (+13.5)

Wake is not a bad club. My numbers have them as only a 6 point dog in this one, so getting a full TD over that makes it look like a good play to me. ND's turnover issues seem to make them always a risky play. If they would be better with the ball they could be undefeated this year. Wake was crushed by NC last week, so at home at night I think they'll be in for a better performance. ND has not been stellar on the road this year, and giving this many to a quality team doesn't make sense. I'm sure it will come down to turnovers, if WF can force them they can win, if they don't they could get blown out. Odds are that they will be able to force a few...WF shocks ND 27-23.

STAN at OREST (+21.5)

I've been picking against STAN for most of the year because I just don't think they are nearly as good as they been playing. It finally paid off last week with USC, but barely. OREST has been totally unpredictable this year, but they historically tough at home and as a big dog. STAN is coming down off the USC emotional win and looking ahead to their game with ORE next week, so this one looks like a flyover for them. I don't think the Beavers will do enough to win, but I think they'll make STAN sweat and probably be alive in the 2nd half. STAN wins 38-28.

VAN (+11.5) at FLA

Vandy is only 1-4 in the SEC, but nearly neat GEO and ARK. Both of those games were at home, but I'm starting to think this Vandy club might be improving a bit. Hear that G-Reg?!? Your guys might be on their way up!! The Gators have dropped 4 in a row and are an offensive mess right now. They've scored 47 points combined in their last 4 games. Granted, it's been the cream of the crop in the SEC, but it's still under 12 ppg which is pathetic. I'll take the better trending team and a good defense getting 11.5...GATORS win a close one 19-16.

BIG GAMES

A&M (+14.5) at OK

Aggies are coming off a bad loss to MIZZOU at home last week and OK just got done crushing KST. Last week was the worst game the Aggies have played, so I think their talent is too much to not expect a rebound performance here. Sooners at home are looking to start a new streak, so they might have some juice going as well. It's a risky pick, but I'll take the Aggies to cover...SOONERS win 38-28.

SC at ARK (-6)

SC on the road and without most of their best players...yuck. Both are 7-1 and highly ranked, but SC is not the same team that was playing well earlier this year. They've only scored 14 ppg in their last 2 road games. You know ARK will score on anyone this side of ALA and LSU, so I think giving less than a TD looks like a layup in this one. ARK's trend scares me, they haven't played well vs. OLE or VAN the last 2 weeks, but those are tough games to get up for as an elite team with bigger things on the horizon. Hogs roll 27-10.

KST at OKST (-20.5)

It's the Cowboys...you should always pick them. They've covered 7 in a row and KST had their bubble burst last week against the other OK team. COWBOYS 58-27.

ORE (-14.5) at WASH

Not really sure which way to go on this one, but I'll take the Ducks. Washington is still a big mystery to me, and I don't know if they have the speed to keep up with the Ducks. DUCKS 49-31.

LSU at ALA (-4)

This is the big one. Two unreal defenses, 2 great coaches, 2 great running games. It's not the end all be all for the National Title, because each team has a couple of obstacles left, but it will go a long way in determining who takes the hardware this year. ALA is allowing 6.8 ppg this year. That is ridiculous. I rate ALA as having a better offense than LSU and a better defense and they rely less on turnovers than Les does. LSU has been crushing the spreads this year, so I think their numbers are a bit inflated and they might be getting a little too much credit in this one. Plus most of the world is on the LSU side in this one...so I LOVE ALABAMA. These hyped games typically aren't as close as you'd think, so I think ALA wins by double digits...TIDE 23-10.

That's all for this week - the family is heading out of town tonight and all day Saturday so I might be watching a crazy Vegas-Amount of games on Saturday. Enjoy the weekend!!

Need Week 10 Pick from...

2011-11-03T09:49:00.000-05:00

HEINERT
SETNICKER
PEYTON
LUKE

So far we're a cumulative 1-5 in our TUES/WED picks...yuck.

Please send over your picks by NOON Today.

TOLEDO -7 : TUESDAY NIGHT MACtion

2011-11-01T14:44:00.001-05:00

MC and I are on TOLEDO tonight. If anyone else is one board, or wanting to capitalize on an opportunity to go against us please let me know.

Week 10 Lines

2011-11-01T13:24:00.000-05:00

Missing one NFL game right now, the critical STL at ARI tilt is not lined yet but I'll get you an update when it is.

We have TUES, WED, THUR, and FRI football once again. If you want tonight's game, let me know before it kicks off. Same with WED.

NILL
TOL -7 TUES

TEM
OHIO 4.5 WED

AKR
MIAOH -16.5 THUR

FSU
BC 14.5 THUR

TULSA
UCF -2.5 THUR

CMU
KENT -1.5 FRI

USC
COL 22.5 FRI

SYR
UCONN -3

VAN
FLA -11.5

MN
MSU -28.5

IND
OHIOST -28.5

KST
OKST -20.5

A&M
OK -14.5

TT
TEX -9

LOU
WV -13.5

BALLST
EMU 1

MICH
IOWA 4

NC
NCST 4

NMST
GEO -35.5

KAN
ISU -13

VIR
MARY -1.5

TCU
WY 20.5

TULANE
SMU -25.5

DUKE
MIA -16.5

ARMY
AF -15

TROY
NAVY -6.5

OLE
UK 0

STAN
OREST 21.5

ULM
ULL -3.5

UTEP
RICE 1

PUR
WIS -26

NW
NEB -18

SOMISS
ECU 7.5

IDAHO
SJST -7

FIU
WKY 1.5

ARKST
FAU 17

WASU
CAL -9

UTAH
AZ -2.5

ND
WF 13.5

CIN
PITT 3

MIZZ
BAY -1.5

USF
RUT 1

MDTN
TN -18.5

HOU
UAB 25.5

SC
ARK -6

ASU
UCLA 11

NM
SDST -37

LSU
ALA -4

ORE
WASH 14.5

LT
FRES -3

BOISE
UNLV 41

UTST
HAW -6.5

NFL

MIA
KC -5

TB
NO -9

ATL
IND 9.5

CLE
HOU -12

NYJ
BUF 0

SF
WAS 4.5

SEA
DAL -14

CIN
TEN -3

DEN
OAK -8.5

NYG
NE -10

STL
ARI

GB
SD 6

BAL
PIT -3.5

CHI
PHI -8

Week 9 Review & Standings Update

2011-11-01T09:26:00.000-05:00

Ugly MNF last night, but it worked out the right way for Mr. Roe...congrats, you're playing for free the rest of the year.

WEEK 9 W L %

MR 9 6 60.0%

AW 8 7 53.3%

GR 8 7 53.3%

MS 8 7 53.3%

SS 7 8 46.7%

TN 7 8 46.7%

MT 7 8 46.7%

JR 6 9 40.0%

JG 6 9 40.0%

MC 6 9 40.0%

RO 6 9 40.0%

LW 6 9 40.0%

MO 6 9 40.0%

GT 5 10 33.3%

JH 5 10 33.3%

MH 4 11 26.7%

CP 4 11 26.7%

Only 4 guys over .500 this week. As a group we hit 42.4%...39% in NCAA and 47% in NFL. Losers all around. Pretty ugly stuff guys - we need a rebound this week.

YTD OVERALL W L %

MR 80 55 59.3%

SS 77 58 57.0%

MO 74 61 54.8%

GR 74 61 54.8%

RO 73 62 54.1%

JH 73 62 54.1%

TN 72 63 53.3%

CP 71 64 52.6%

MT 71 64 52.6%

MH 68 67 50.4%

AW 68 67 50.4%

GT 67 68 49.6%

LW 66 69 48.9%

MS 66 69 48.9%

JR 64 71 47.4%

MC 64 71 47.4%

JG 62 73 45.9%

51.9% for the year as a group. ROE builds his lead to 3 games over SCHUFT and 6 over OGE and G-REG.

YTD NCAA W L %

MR 62 33 65.3%

SS 53 32 62.4%

MS 35 23 60.3%

CP 56 39 58.9%

MO 53 38 58.2%

GR 49 39 55.7%

TN 51 43 54.3%

RO 47 40 54.0%

JH 46 40 53.5%

MH 50 45 52.6%

GT 36 34 51.4%

MT 39 37 51.3%

LW 28 29 49.1%

AW 40 42 48.8%

MC 43 52 45.3%

JG 28 34 45.2%

JR 34 49 41.0%

53.6% in total NCAA this year, still in the black but we're dropping fast. 3 guys still doing really well at 60%+ on the season.

YTD NFL W L %

JR 30 22 57.7%

JH 27 22 55.1%

MT 32 27 54.2%

RO 26 22 54.2%

GR 25 22 53.2%

AW 28 25 52.8%

MC 21 19 52.5%

TN 21 20 51.2%

LW 38 40 48.7%

SS 24 26 48.0%

MO 21 23 47.7%

GT 31 34 47.7%

JG 34 39 46.6%

MH 18 22 45.0%

MR 18 22 45.0%

MS 31 46 40.3%

CP 15 25 37.5%

49.1% in NFL for the year in total. That is not in the black. Nobody over 60% in NFL, I'm the closest at 57.7%.

We are officially at the half way point of the regular season. Nobody has won more than once in the first 9 weeks. 3 guys have taken home $100 in their wins, 3 have taken home $50. Lots of interesting weeks left, including the final 4 weeks of picking only 10 NFL games...lots can change at that point considering our luck in the pro league. I'll send out the Week 10 games later today.

MNF - WIN for ROE or another push?

2011-10-31T13:05:00.000-05:00

Just a couple of quick things this Halloween Monday -

First, 16 of us like the CHARGERS at -3.5 tonight, and ROE likes the home dog CHIEFS. A SD cover pushes the cash to next week so $150 would be on the line. Mike - 5-0 in the NFL? What happenend?!?!?!

What else....oh, yeah...this:

IOWA TROPHY CASE

Not even a Cy-Hawk in that thing...sorry guys.

VICTORY FORMATION!! We ran it well on Saturday, because Duane Bennett convinced Coach Kill to practice it in the walk-through Saturday morning because they were going to need it. Yes.

Is there anything more fun than reading Hogeye message boards after a beating them again? Nope. They're firing from all angles right now...Fire Ferentz, Hire Mike Stoops, why can't we get Bielema, why don't we try - at least the hoops team tries!, Hire McCarney, at least it's wrestling season (seriously, this is actually said on their boards).

Read this article by Doogie from 1500AM, it's great and informative :

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Wolfson_Gophers_staff_widely_outcoached_Iowas_in_upset_victory103011

And read this Hogeye message board, 534 comments...not much positivity:

http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2011/10/30/2524262/minnesota-22-iowa-21-welcome-to-the-queso-bowl

Lots of "fans" complaining about how they're not going to spend their hard earned dollars (selling drugs) to go back to Mpls if this is the kind of effort they're going to get.

We had a coward sitting behind us who yelled and whistled annoyingly throughout nearly the entire game, but ran a 4.2 40 to the exit once that last 4th down didn't work out. Weird. He also incorportaed the Seminole chop and song as well as the Gator chomp into his Hogeye cheers. Interesting choice sir. This was the scene late Saturday night as the sad bunch headed back down to the land of Meth and Pigs:

If there has been a better Saturday I must have missed it. WIS losing on another last second Hail Mary? That was just the cherry on top of what could not have been a better day. The best part is that we have 4 more games, so building on this momentum could lead to a strong finish to the season. The WIS/MN game is on the ABC/ESPN watch list right now, so we won't know the game time until after this week's games. I'm guessing 2:30, but there's an outside chance at 7pm as well.

The infamous goal-post theft from Meth-head nation was shown by Kill to the team before the game...thanks for the inspiration guys.

It's going to be a good week/month/year.

Quick Update

2011-10-30T18:51:00.000-05:00

MR at 8-6 and BOMB at 8-5.

BOMB on DAL at +3.5, ROE on PHI at -3.5....

DAL win = BOMB $100
PHI win = either ROE win or a tie and push to next week with a SD -3.5 cover on MNF for BOMB.

Week 9 Preview

2011-10-27T15:23:00.000-05:00

HATE WEEK will finally come to it's dramatic conclusion on Saturday night. $100 on the line this week - let's see what we've got:

JR: VIR VT MARY IND MN USC FIU SJST NYG BAL MIN JAC DET BUF NE

JG: MIA MN NW PUR MIZZ KST NAVY NM ARK DET BUF NE STL CLE DAL

MR: MSU OHIOST BAY TEX ND ORE CAL ARK GEO TN BUF STL CIN PIT PHI

AW: MIA FSU NC MN PSU WIS FLA BUF CIN DET DAL MIN ARI HOU SD

GR: CLEM MN PSU MSU TEX KST OKST STAN GEO BUF DET PHI NYG CAR KC

MH: OLE STAN TCU NAVY MN PSU MSU WIS NW MICH BUF DAL NE BAL SEA

MC: UTEP AKR KENT BALLST BUFF TCU ORE FIU SJST IDAHO SEA STL PIT CLE DEN

SS: CLEM TEX KST WV ND TCU ORE STAN AUB IDAHO BAL DET MIN SD SF

RO: WIS NEB TEX A&M OK ND TCU FLA HAW SD SF BUF NYG CIN NO

TN: CLEM WIS MSU KST BAY HOU BUFF STAN WKY GEO BUF CIN NE PHI KC

MT: CLEM NEB A&M OK HOU STAN ORE OLE ARK CIN SD DET STL ARI JAC

GT: CLEM FSU WIS IOWA ILL OK BAY TCU ORE CIN JAC NE NYG NO TEN

MS: WIS MIZZ MARSH ND BYU JAC NE NYG BAL MIN CIN NO DET BUF IND

CP: WIS MSU MN PUR UCONN HOU TCU UNLV COL SJST JAC NE NYG BAL MIN

LW: MDTN GT NMST USC WIS NYG MIN IND HOU DEN BUF SF NE PHI SD

JH: VT WIS A&M OKST ORE ASU STAN ARK SC NYG BUF NE PHI SD BAL

MO: CLEM WIS ILL A&M TEX HOU SMU MEM STAN FLA MIN IND NO DET PIT

So far 3 games have picked games, and 3 guys have lost games...CP, MC, JR are all off to 0-1 starts. I hope this isn't setting a tone for the week.

GAMES THAT MATTER

Double-header Thursday kicks off tonight.

RICE-HOU (-27)
The play here has to be HOU. They are getting all the action at 4 to 0 picks this week. It's a big number, but Rice is bad, and HOU is aiming for BCS consideration. Go with the Cougs, even though I don't love this one.

VIR (+15) at MIA
I'm still not impressed with MIA. But everything seems to favor VIR in this one - they have the better defense, coming off a bad loss to NCST, and getting a few more points that the power rating suggests they should. MIA is coming off of back to back big wins over NC and GT and they just don't look like they're good enough to cover more than 2 TD's in this one. I'm going CAVS with 2 guys on MIA.

BYU at TCU (-11.5)
TCU on Friday night looks like the right side. BYU still just doesn't have the typical fire power to keep up in a shootout like this. Although the offense has improved for the Mormons lately, I think TCU's D will be up to the challenge and they win by 2 TD's. Don't love this one either, but I'll take the Frogs. We have lots of action on this one with 6 on the Frogs and 1 on BYU.

NW at IND (+10)
So you have a team who has lost 5 in row with a bad defense favored by 10 points on the road in a tough conference game? This makes no sense to me. My line would have been closer to 4 or 5 with 7 being the max I would put on this one. Clearly, IND is not good either, but getting 10 points as a young team at home to a bad conference opponent...I'll take it. Hoosiers win outright...33-31. I'm the only one on this one, 2 guys on NW.

MSU at NEB (-6)
It seems like NEB hasn't played well yet this season, so why would I pick them here? Well, it feels like the ultimate letdown spot for Sparty nation after the big win at home last week. Lincoln will be crazy, as a win would put them in the driver's seat for a B10 title game birth. What scares me is NEB's inability to throw the ball...ever. Sparty's D is good enough to lock down on the run game and for T-Magic to start shot-putting it out there. But the letdown angle for me is too great to like Sparty in this one...NEB 27-20. 5 guys on Sparty and only 2 on NEB.

FLA (+2.5) vs. GEO
The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is always a fun one...if you're a Gator at least. Mark Richt never beat Spurrier, only beat the Zooker once, and only beat Urban once. How will he fair against Mr. Muschamp? My guess is not good. Brantley will likely be back for the Gators to kick start that offense. Statistically the team are almost identical with both having good D and average O. But Brantley coming back makes a difference to me. Also Richt's track record against FLA and being the favorite make me lean Gators on this one. FLA wins 30-18, because SEC games always have weird scores. 3 guys on each side in this one, definitely one of the bigger swing games this week.

ZOOK at PATERNO (-6)
I'm going with the fade Zook at all costs opinion in this one. His team looks beat. They've lost 2 in a row and they are coming into a BYE next week, I don't think they have any reason to step up in a tough situation at Happy Valley this week. BTW, my PSU call for B10 champ still looks okay as they are 4-0 in conference and playing some good ball right now. This one could be a snoozer...PSU 20-10. 2 guys on ILL and 3 on PSU.

CLEM (-4.5) at GT
I know it's CLEM, but I'm almost starting to believe in this crew much like AUB of last year. They always have that clunker when they get off to a start like this, but I'm not sure it's coming this year. The toughest game left after this is at a depleted SC team, so GT might be the best shot at a loss they have the rest of the way. GT is playing awful right now - as soon as I started betting them they have taken a turn for the worst and lost their last 2. I have to ride the hot hand and take CLEM here...44-34. FC world agrees with 6 on CLEM and 1 on GT.

STAN at USC (+8.5)
I've been waiting for this Cardinal club to slow down for the last 4 weeks, and I think it finally happens this week at USC. I don't think there is any way STAN should be giving more than a TD in this one, so I had to take the points. STAN's first 3 road games were DUKE, AZ, WASU...not exactly a tough slate. This one will be a lot different than those. I think Barkley and the USC running game can keep it close throughout and possibly squeak out a W...TROJANS Win 37-31. Only 2 of us on USC and 7 still riding the STAN wave.

WIS (-9) at OHIOST
I hate it, but I think you have to take Becky in this one. They are still a crazy good team and OHIOST is just not this year. Typically I would see OHIOST +9 at home and bet the mortgage on it, but this team just isn't there right now. Defensively, they may be able to slow Becky down a bit and keep this one in range for the majority of the game. But OHIOST's offense is so bad and one dimeniosnal that I don't think it will take too many blunders by the young QB to make this one ugly. I'll say close for a half, and ugly by the end...WIS 28-9. 10 on Becky, 1 on OHIOST.

IOWA at MN (+17.5)
Like I wouldn't pick the right side in this one. Here's the deal, our offense sucks. But if we can keep from turning the ball over so much I think there is hope here. This isn't the Iowa defense we're used to seeing, they are very average this year and they struggle with running QB's like always. If Q takes over and calls his own number early and often I think we stay in this thing. Defensively I really don't think we are as terrible as it seems. We've given up too many long plays, so the numbers look pretty rough. We also make too many stupid penalties. If we can cure those 2 things, this game is winnable. A good start is mandatory. I heard today that we have trailed in our last 39! games!!!! Let's try to play with a lead once instead of always having to comeback. McNutt is tough, Coker can run it, but the Iowa offense overall can be contained. I'll say GOPHERS maintain bowl eligibility and put it all together to win 27-24...sounds familiar. 6 of us are on the Gophs, with 1 on Iowa.

NFL
I've got 10 minutes, so here are the best bets...

NYG over a MIA team that has all but quit on the season and fired their coach.
BAL off an embarassing MNF performance smacks the taste out of ARI this week.
MIN covers the 3.5 but lses outright in CAR...21-20.
TEN is not a great team and shouldn't be a DD favorite over anyone, take INDY.
HOU...see TEN, take JAC.
DET over Jesus H. Tebow, but when you're betting against the big man you never know.
BUF is best bet on the board...WAS is brutally bad and getting worse.
I like SEA over CIN at home, since when did CIN reach favored on the road in tough environment status?
Give me BRADY over PIT, just a better team and off a BYE you know Belichick has some sinister plans for the beat up Steelers.
DAL/PHI - flip a coin, DAL is better but PHI off a BYE....I'll take points and DAL.

Good Luck - hope to see some of you celebrating with me and my buddy Floyd on Saturday!!

Need Week 9 Picks from...

2011-10-27T10:15:00.002-05:00

LUKE W.
HEINERT
SETNICKER

Send them by NOON.

Thanks.

Wednesday Night Football & Things to Ponder

2011-10-26T15:21:00.000-05:00

First, we have football tonight...UCONN at PITT (-10.5), so please let me know if you want in on this game before it starts.

Second, what did you think of our QB?!? That game actually played out pretty much like I had expected. Ponder looked the part, made a few mistakes, but ultimately led the club to a near miss against a really good team. AD had a huge day, but the recievers and OL that he's working with are about as bad as we've seen around here in quite a while. Not to mention our total lack of a secondary against maybe the top QB in the league right now...all in all it could have been a lot worse. If Ponder continues to improve and leads us to a few wins down the stretch, which I think he will do, I could possibly see some signs of hope for the future. Obviously, we have gaping holes in the OL (LT!), we need a star WR, we need a S and at least 1 more CB. Can we find all of these in the off-season...unlikely, but a nice high pick should fill one of these spots and maybe a gem or two in FA. If nothing else, at least the final half of the season will have something to watch.

- Houston Nutt was angry this week that a local Ole Miss columnist picked the Rebs to lose 49-10 to ARK at home on Saturday. Ole Miss proceeded to blow a 17-0 lead and still lose the game by 4 points, after which Nutt went to the reporter and said, "It ain't no 49-10!" So he's all jacked up and anxious to get back at this reporter after his team blows a 17 point lead to a top 10 team. This is what is top of mind for him? That's why Houston Nutt is a joke and will be jobless come December.

- Last Thursday in the UCLA-ARIZ game right around half time a guy dressed as a referee ran out to the field waving his arms and blowing a whistle. He proceeded to get chased down the field and start stripping off his clothes. It was funnny, and it incited a brawl between the 2 benches. Whatever, right...just a dumb college kid doing something stupid but harmless. Or not. He was charged with a felony! Now the kid could end up serving time for this. Maybe I will re-think my plans for the Iowa game this weekend.

This was such an amazing finish and great moment in college football last Saturday night. I think it was even more fun that Sparty let Becky back in it with those 2 late TD's only to tear their heart out all over again once the red team regained a little hope.

The Becky's were a little premature in celebrating their 6 game National Championship. They still think it's bull$hit that they should ever have to play a road game. Now this week they have their 2nd in a row...it's a conspiracy against the red team! Maybe they'll leave the NCAA and start their own conference.

I was laughing at one of these donkeys on Saturday night, my little guy Jace was laughing at the other...can you guess which is which? Big Bret and his timeout plan didn't make any sense to me at the end of the game Saturday night. Sparty is around mid field and driving to hopefully get a winning FG or shot at a Hail Mary, and Bret continues to use his timeouts for them in hope that his D will make a stop and get the ball back in regulation? In theory, I understand what he was going for, but is this really the right move? You've dominated the last 10 minutes of the game and you have to believe that Sparty was content on sending this to OT and just surviving the final run by Becky. Using the extra timeouts forced Sparty to try and make a big play, which they did, and then allowed them a shot at that last heave to the end zone. Thanks Bret - you are a true Iowan at heart.

Speaking of the southerners...

I hope this guy is sitting by me on Saturday. You know he'll be there. Look out for this guy as well...

P.S.A. : They're wrestlers, you know...all of them...even the feminine ones. This background combined with mass amounts of extremely bad cheap beer creates ugly aggressiveness. They will all have their singlets on under their overalls and they will all be either wearing their headgear or have it in the pickup nearby. Their sleeves will be freshly torn off, for the big trip to the "city" they like to look their best. So you have been warned, any contact with these beings will likely result in a confrontation, because that's what they do. I witnessed 2 Hogeye fans in a Becky bar a few years back watching the Badgers beat them again, and literally these 2 started challenging everyone in the bar to a fight and taking their shirts off and breaking things. They can't help it...it's what they do. Win or lose, they will be jackasses.

So, what else we got. Here's this stat to cheer up all of us Gopher backers: OK was the largest favorite to lose outright this season, the previous "worst" loss...MIN as a 18.5 point favorite losing outright to NMST. Woo-hoo! We are not the worst at something any more! Honestly, I think IND is actually worse than us right now. They also only have 1 win, but it came against a D1AA school in South Carolina State. At least we have a D1 win, right? IND went to Iowa and lost by 21 points. If we're equals with IND, then the lines should swing 6 points in our favor with the home/road reversal, so we should be +15, but we're at 17.5...sounds like a winner to me!

Honestly, I think we are improving in some areas. We've only allowed 1 sack in the last 2 games vs. 13 in the first 5. Our run defense is terrible, but our pass defense has actually been quite decent. Where we're losing these games for the most part is in the turnover battle. We are at a -6 in B10 play right now. We've only been on the + side of the TO margin one time...when we beat MIAOH. Let's hope we can get it all together starting this week.

In the NFL, I have a couple things to discuss.

First, John Fox, HC of DEN, has coached 358 NFL games over 23 years, and Sunday was the first time his team had ever recovered an onside kick. TEBOW?

Speaking of the savior, Cowherd made a great call this week when he said, "you can't be a hero, when the fire you're putting out is one that you started." This is so very accurate, and it seems like most of the world is missing this from Sunday. DEN should have clobbered MIA. The Dolphins WANT to lose. They have nothing to gain by winning. Tebow threw for 24 yards in the first 3 quarters! He dug them into the mess, and then once the Fins laid down we brought them back to win. I feel like the oddsmakers are falling for this crap as well by only making them a 3.5 point dog at home with DET this week. It's not that I want to hate the guy, he's just not very good. But it appears as if something is on his side, so I guess we'll keep watching and see where it goes.

NFL teams off a BYE have always been a good betting trend. This year, teams off the BYE are only 5-6-1 in their next game. I think it's changed a little, at this point to give a team an edge off a BYE I think they have to have a good coach, which only about 1/3 of the league has. They also have to be in the right spot. A team's performance off a BYE can tell you a lot, in my opinion, about their coach. TEN last week, I thought they had a good coach, but they lose to an undermanned HOU team at home 41-7...instantly he goes to the bad coach pile in my mind. There are a lot of "good" coaches coming off a BYE this week (Coughlin, Reid, Belichick, Jim Harbaugh?) Then you also have Jauron and Marvin Lewis off of a BYE with their surprising teams. Tough to not like the chances of any of these guys this week, but I would panic if I see one of these teams come out flat this week. If you can't play with fire after a week off and 2 weeks to prepare for this opponent, then there is something else wrong.

Lots of big games this week in the NCAA, and lots of big lines this week in the NFL - should make for an interesting $100 week!! Good Luck, send me your picks when you can. One last note, for those who paid with a check, I cashed all of those today - sorry for the delay, I actually kind of forgot about them.

WHO HATES IOWA?!?!?

I HATE IOWA.

TROY-FIU

2011-10-25T16:23:00.003-05:00

MC and I are taking FIU tonight at -4.5....pray for us.

Week 9 Lines - $100 week, mid point of the season

2011-10-25T13:49:00.000-05:00

Our 3rd $100 week is here! The last 2 have been won with 12-3 records, so bring your best game this week to make back your cash. It's also the half-way point in the season, I know...sad.

Send me your best 15 in the quest for $100 - we also have TUES, WED, THU, FRI night football this week and every week until Thanksgiving. If there was ever a time to get hot, this would be it.

SUN BELT TUESDAY

TROY
FIU -4.5

BIGEAST WEDNESDAY

UCONN
PITT -10.5

DOUBLE HEADER THURSDAY

RICE
HOU -27

VIR
MIA -15

MORMON FRIDAY

BYU
TCU -11.5

Please be sure to send me these picks before they start if you want action on any of these games (TUES/WED). Here's the rest of the list:

NCST
FSU -20

NW
IND 10

SYR
LOU -4

PUR
MICH -15

MSU
NEB -6

UAB
MARSH -6

CMU
AKR 8

MIZZ
A&M -11

ARK
VAN 12

VT
DUKE 14

BGU
KENT 4.5

BALLST
WMU -13

AF
NM 29

BC
MARY -7.5

WASU
ORE -33

FLA
GEO -2.5

IOWA
MN 17.5

TULANE
ECU -17

WF
NC -7

WV
RUT 7.5

BUFF
MIAOH -7.5

BAY
OKST -18

SMU
TULSA -3

ILL
PSU -6

OK
KST 13.5

WKY
ULM -6.5

NAVY
ND -17.5

MEM
UCF -29.5

SJST
LT -9.5

HAW
IDAHO 10.5

COLST
UNLV 3

COL
ASU -30.5

OLE
AUB -10.5

CAL
UCLA 5

MISST
UK 10.5

KAN
TEX -23.5

OREST
UTAH -7

NTEX
ARKST -14.5

ISU
TT -17

SC
TN 7

ULL
MDTN -3

CLEM
GT 4.5

NEV
NMST 15

STAN
USC 8.5

WIS
OHIOST 9

SOMISS
UTEP 11

WY
SDST -17

NFL

AZ
WASH -7.5

NO
STL 15.5

MIA
NYG -10.5

ARI
BAL -13

MIN
CAR -3.5

IND
TEN -10.5

JAC
HOU -10

DET
DEN 3.5

WAS
BUF -4.5

CIN
SEA 1

CLE
SF -10

NE
PIT 2.5

DAL
PHI -3.5

SD
KC 3.5

Week 8 Review

2011-10-25T10:02:00.000-05:00

Hammer is probably still cursing the brutal performance by the Ravens last night that cost him $50. I think tonight's Tuesday Night Sun Belt action will be more entertaining than that thing last night.

YTD OVERALL STANDINGS

TOTAL W L %

MR 71 49 59.2%

SS 70 50 58.3%

MO 68 52 56.7%

JH 68 52 56.7%

RO 67 53 55.8%

CP 67 53 55.8%

GR 66 54 55.0%

TN 65 55 54.2%

MH 64 56 53.3%

MT 64 56 53.3%

GT 62 58 51.7%

LW 60 60 50.0%

AW 60 60 50.0%

JR 58 62 48.3%

MC 58 62 48.3%

MS 58 62 48.3%

JG 56 64 46.7%

Roe has dipped below 60%, and we still have 7 guys within 5 games of the lead. 52.9% in total right now, and dropping every week.

WEEK 8
Week 8 W L %

MS 0 0 #DIV/0!

MO 10 5 66.7%

JH 10 5 66.7%

AW 8 7 53.3%

MH 8 7 53.3%

MC 8 7 53.3%

SS 8 7 53.3%

JR 7 8 46.7%

CP 7 8 46.7%

GT 7 8 46.7%

MR 6 9 40.0%

RO 6 9 40.0%

MT 6 9 40.0%

JG 5 10 33.3%

GR 5 10 33.3%

LW 5 10 33.3%

TN 4 11 26.7%

An ugly 45.8% in total this week, that's how you go broke fast. Only 6 guys over .500 for the week. 45% in NCAA and 47% in NFL. The return of the underdog crushed a lot of hopes and dreams this week.

TOTAL COLLEGE FOOTBALL

NCAA W L %

MR 58 27 68.2%

MS 32 17 65.3%

SS 48 27 64.0%

CP 53 32 62.4%

MO 50 31 61.7%

GR 46 33 58.2%

TN 48 36 57.1%

MH 47 38 55.3%

RO 43 35 55.1%

JH 43 36 54.4%

GT 33 28 54.1%

MT 36 31 53.7%

AW 36 37 49.3%

LW 25 27 48.1%

MC 39 46 45.9%

JG 24 33 42.1%

JR 31 44 41.3%

55.4% for the year in NCAA, still making money...most of us. I think a trained monkey could hit more than 41.3%, so clearly I am not at that level yet.

NFL TOTAL YTD

NFL W L %

JH 25 16 61.0%

JR 27 18 60.0%

RO 24 18 57.1%

MC 19 16 54.3%

MT 28 25 52.8%

LW 35 33 51.5%

AW 24 23 51.1%

JG 32 31 50.8%

GT 29 30 49.2%

SS 22 23 48.9%

GR 20 21 48.8%

MH 17 18 48.6%

TN 17 19 47.2%

MO 18 21 46.2%

CP 14 21 40.0%

MR 13 22 37.1%

MS 26 45 36.6%

Hammer wrestled away the lead from me in the NFL totals. For the year, we are below 50% coming in at 49.4%.

Week 9 lines will be coming this afternoon - waiting on lots of NFL games that are still not listed. So until then...

Week 8 Update

2011-10-24T12:22:00.000-05:00

One game left for the week, and for a change it actually has some meaning for the pool this week.

MO is sitting at 10-5 right now and is tied with JH at 10-4, but Hammer still has the Ravens -10 tonight.

If BAL wins, HAMMER takes the $$$, if JAC covers we push to next week for $100.

Outside of these 2 LeRoy natives fighting it out for the weekly crown, the overall picture was not good in Week 8. We currently sit at 46% for the week with only 3 other guys over .500 right now.

Full recap will be coming tomorrow with standings and Becky taunting.

Week 8 Preview - SPARTY....YES!

2011-10-20T15:43:00.000-05:00

Biggest game of the weekend? Probably not, but best chance to end this Becky nightmare...probably, until NOV 12th.

First, here's the complete list of picks:

JR: GT OKST KAN LOU ND TOL WASH ULL NTEX NYJ DET CAR TB TEN MIN

JG: GT MN NW OKST KAN AZ COL AUB TN CLE WAS DEN PIT OAK DAL

MR: FSU IOWA NEB WIS OKST OK ND BOISE ORE ARK NYJ TB ATL MIA GB

AW: MIA WIS MN RUT WV BOISE AZ CAL CHI ATL PIT OAK MIN SD HOU

GR: WIS NEB ILL OK A&M HOU ARK AUB ALA PIT OAK TB GB DAL DET

MH: GT CLEM WIS NEB ILL NW IND BOISE OREST ARK GB CHI ATL HOU CAR

MC: BC IND MN TT NM AF COL AUB TN NMST ATL MIN STL IND JAC

SS: OK KAN LOU USF EMU BOISE CAL USC STAN ATL PIT TB DAL SD TEN

RO: WIS NEB PSU A&M MIZZ SOMISS BOISE AUB ALA PIT TB GB DET NYJ CLE

TN: GT CLEM IND MN MSU A&M ND WASH AUB ARK GB DET TEN CAR BAL

MT: BC NC WIS OK OKST AF AUB ARK SD MIN STL IND JAC CHI ARI

GT: CLEM VT WIS NEB OKST BOISE UCLA ALA JAC GB TEN PIT DEN SEA NO

MS: x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

CP: WIS MN PSU PUR BALLST BOISE UCLA CAL USC LSU DEN SD BAL TB OAK

LW: WIS NEB OK BOISE USC SD BAL OAK PIT MIN STL IND CLE HOU MIA

JH: CLEM WIS NEB PSU ILL KST HOU UCLA ALA BAL OAK PIT MIN HOU NO

MO: GT WIS OKST RUT HOU TCU USC STAN ALA PIT MIN HOU SD TB CAR

ALMOST EVERYONE LOVES...
OKST
ARK
BOISE
AUB
WIS

PIT
OAK

Not nearly as many "sure things" this week according to our group.

SOLOIST ON A SOLO LIST
RO-MIZZ
AW-MIA
CP-LSU
TN-SPARTY!
MC-TT

MT-ARI

Once again, a much smaller list in the me against the world type bets.

GAMES THAT MATTER
These matter to me for one reason or another, so here's what I expect to happen.

First, the 2 THUR games - these always matter because it's the only thing on!!

UCF -15 at UAB - I think UAB is a wreck. UCF coming off a few bad performances and they should be able to crush the Blazers tonight.

UCLA +4 at ARI - As long as the Cats don't decide to try an win one for the gipper with the new interim guy, I think the Bruins are a better club and will take advantage of a porous ARI defense to easily cover this one.

IND +22 at IOWA - Iowa seems to struggle with the Who-siers every year. How is Iowa 3+ TD's better than anyone right now? They are very average on both sides of the ball, which I don't think most of the country realizes at this point. IND is bad, we know that, but I'll give them a chance this week coming off the Becky beatdown from their last game.

WF-DUKE OVER 59.5 - this is a lock, play it. The last 4 years they've been well over 60 every time, why would this year be different?

GT+3 at MIA - Paul Johnson off a loss is a dangerous thing. MIA is not as good as GT even though the oddsmakers are labeling these 2 teams as equals. This looks tasty for the Jackets.

NAVY -10 vs. ECU - I think NAVY rebounds after a lot of poor performances and routes an undisciplined ECU team by 3 TD's. ECU is pathetic this year and NAVY is due...right JG?

AUB +22 at LSU - LSU suspension have taken this one off the board at a lot of locations, but not the Football Challenge! Lots of AUB love this week, and I have to go along with it. A new QB is a frightening thing against the Tigers on the Bayou, but AUB isn't nearly as bad as I expected this season and they could make it a fight.

ND -7.5 vs. USC - I think the Trojans are overrated. My belief is the oddsmakers set this at 7.5 to try and entice some of us to jump on the Trojans assuming this game will be close. Actually, I think the Irish crush in this one and win by 14-20 pts.

WASH +20 at STAN - I still don't think STAN is as good as they've looked thus far. WASH can score some points, so getting 20 in this one seems like a lot. Both of these teams have been good bets this year, but I have to think WASH gives STAN their first minor scare and keeps it within 2 scores.

MSU +7.5 vs. WIS - I should never bet IOWA, WIS, or MN games...it gets too emotional. I somehow was able to lay off of this one in Week 8, but I like Sparty. Now the question is, do I like them logically or am I just praying for a Becky loss to bring back some sanity to the NCAAF world. Here's my case, WIS is playing their 1st road game...it's OCT 22 and they haven't seen the road yet!?!? WTF!?!? So we have that, you also have statistically the best D in the nation getting more than a TD at home. These 2 have played very tight games each of the last 4 years, so why wouldn't it happen again? GO SPARTY!!

NEB-25 at MN - I can't with a good conscience pick the Maroon and Gold this week. I know the line has actually moved in our favor, and NEB really isn't that great this year, but our club looks hopeless. How about this stat...defensively, MN and NEB are about equal. Wow, blackshirts? Anyone? Buehler? Offensively, we are challenged quite a bit so I don't like our odds to score more than 3 times. So how do the Gophers surprise me and cover? Turnovers...we never force them, but Martinez likes to throw them so we have a chance there. Run the ball...once again, we haven't done it very well this year, but maybe we figured it out in the BYE week. I really don't think we'll get run off the field, but this shouldn't be close...NEB 49 MN 17.

On to the professionals...

SD-NYJ: Jets seem like an obvious play to me in this one. SD always seems to be overrated, so I'll go with NYJ.
SEA-CLE: Epic battle that 14 people will be watching this weekend...I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'll go T-Jackalacka on the road. CLE is bad and has burned me multiple times this year. Kill them with fire.
ATL-DET: Lions on the rebound are the play...ATL is not very good, this just in. Only QB who didn't torch a brutal Packers secondary this year...Maaaatttt Ryan.

WAS-CAR: John Beck starting, huh...take CAR. They aren't bad and they need a win.
CHI-TB: This game is in London, CHI is team turmoil right now, I like TB.
DEN-MIA: Before you pick this one, remember this moment...

Then ask yourself...can I bet on this man as my QB in a real life NFL game against anyone? The correct answer is NO. Take the Fins.
HOU-TEN: I LOVE TEN this week. HOU is banged up, TEN is off a BYE and a nasty tough team. TEN wins and covers.
PIT-ARI: Vegas trap line, PIT only -4 at ARI...well, Cards off a BYE with Whisenhunt's Steeler knowledge, PIT looking ahead to NE and BAL the next 2 weeks, yuck. Stay away, stay far away...I'll pick PIT because I have to but it will be very close.
KC-OAK: So Carson Palmer is starting after being acquired yesterday? That seems odd. KC is riding a 2 game win streak and off a BYE and seeking revenge for 2 L's last year...I like KC and points.
STL-DAL: Bradford is playing, DAL is laying 12 while playing every game this year within 1 score...hmmmm, I think STL.
IND-NO: Huge line, but my god IND has to be ready to throw the towle pretty soon. I hate it, but I'll go NO.
BAL-JAC: The Jags hosting MNF? Why ESPN, why? Doesn't seem like a good spot for the Jaguars, so I'll say BAL eeks this one out by 13.

GB at PURPLE +10.5
10.5 at the dome with a new QB. This number on pure principal alone seems insanely high. I know we've been terrible and the Pack are the greatest show in the world, BUT I don't see this one getting ugly. Call me a homer, but I think after the ass-beating we took last week at CHI, the team is going to show up and give it a run on Sunday. The Packer D is not that strong, obviously, they do have a great offense - but I think you can score on these guys. Ponder, well, I hope he stays upright and makes a couple spectacular plays to keep it interesting. And I think he will, once again, I really like this guy and hopefully he'll be the talk of the town by the time NBC SNF is ready to start. I don't think we can win, but I'll say PURPLE 20 PACK 27.

Just to warn you, once the festivities are over on Saturday it will officially be HATE WEEK...I can smell them already...

Good Luck to you all this weekend.

Need Week 8 Picks from...

2011-10-20T10:02:00.000-05:00

ROE
BOMB
HEINERT
M. THOMAS
SETNICKER
PEYTON
LUKE

Please send them over by NOON TODAY.

Thanks Guys.

Things to PONDER

2011-10-19T15:58:00.000-05:00

This week seems to be all about change, so I decided we'll rename the former "What we learned" to a more appropriate title considering the happenings of this week.

First, I'll go on record, for those of you that weren't a part of the FC this April when the Purple team went out on a limb and took Mr. Ponder....I like the guy. He has all the qualities I look for in my NFL QB's. Maybe he was a reach for where the Purple took him in April, but if you like a guy then I like the aggressive move to get him. Last week showed us a glipse (although I put no stock in mop-up duty with 2nd teamers and 3rd teamers on both sides of the ball) but I still think he displayed a lot of good qualities in his short time against CHI. Anyway, no matter how this turns out, I'm on board with the change and I'm on board with Ponder as our guy for the future. Will he beat GB this week...no. But I think he still keeps my hope alive for the 6+ wins this year!! Sadly, this is the best I've felt about our Purple QB in as long as I can remember.

Now, on to some interesting things I've uncovered/heard/read/created this week.

- First, those of you who love to bet the big favorites and have been winning this year...nice work. This usually isn't the case, but take a look at the numbers for the big favorites this season:

20+ point favorites are 38-23 on the year in NCAAF for a nice 62% return.

Now, the question is, does this trend continue, or do the number continue to inflate on the great teams to a point where this reverses itself and evens out to a more realistic 50/50 split?

- One of the things I love to look for when finding a pickable DOG is a great D getting points. How do I classify a great D? Well, being the stats weirdo that I am, I like to look at PPG they give up but more importantly I like to look at yards per play given up. Anything under 5 = good in my mind. Anything under 4.5 is great. Using this logic, last week if I would have taken every good/great D that was getting points last week I would have gone 7-1...hmmmm.

- On the other side of that, I also look for poor offenses that are giving a lot of points. In my mind, these are also very good opportunities to look at and take the dog that's getting just a few too many points. Poor offenses to me are defined as scoring <25ppg and/or under 5 yards per play. If I would have bet against each favorite that had a "bad offense" I would have gone 7-2 in those games last week...hmmmm.

BTW - I'm really disappointed that nobody jumped on the Sun Belt Tuesday Night yesterday...ARKST housed, but no one benefitted.

- Kansas State is 6-0 and has been an underdog in their last 4 games. That's impressive, it almost feels like once they are favored...this week...things will come crashing down and they'll lose. I'm not recommending putting anything of value on the Jayhawks this weekend, but it's just a hunch at this point. KAN also has the benefit of being a home dog in a rivalry game...dangerous.

- 1st year head coaches are a tricky proposition when trying to handicap a game. They are the most unpredictable, sometimes good and sometimes bad, week in and week out. If you have 4+ years as a track record for a HC you have a chance to predict the spots where his team will play up or down and which opponents they handle well and which ones they don't. However, 1st year HC are constantly changing their teams because they typically have ugly overall records in year 1, but the good coaches always seem to find 2-3 spots where the team gets together and rises up to challenge someone as a big DOG. It's even worse when you get 2 1st year coaches together, such as MIA-NC last week. By the numbers, NC -2 looked like the play. However, with 2 1st year coaches and a Sr. QB for MIA and a So. QB for NC, it didn't play out this way. I read a stat this offseason that 1st year coaches in both NCAA and NFL on average see their games finish the farthest off from the spread one way or the other vs. non-1st year coaches. So when betting on teams like this...beware, you never know what kind of team will show up.

- Does firing your coach during the season make your team play better for the remainder of the year or worse? We'll find out how ARI reacts on Thursday night when they host UCLA without Angry Mike Stoops hollering up and down the sidelines for the first time in a long time. I have concluded that playing in the last game of the season or a Bowl game with an outgoing coach or interim coach is a good thing that inspires your team to play better than they actually are. However, the results are a little mixed for mid-season firings. The GOPHERS lost their first 2 games without Brew last year before covering their final 3 and outright winning the last 2. Colorado rallied for 2 wins after firing Hawkins last year, both as home dogs. But then NEB crushed them in Lincoln. We'll see, but I wouldn't touch that game on THUR night.

- Back to yards per play, based on this stat who is the best D in the entire country? Not ALA, LSU, PSU, SC...it's Sparty nation at a ridiculous 2.9 ypp allowed this year. Let's hope this number goes down even further this week vs. Becky. Offensively the top teams are WIS, HOU, GT, STAN, ORE, and BAY.

- In the NFL I think it's a rare thing when desperation comes into play, but we saw it last week with PHI beating WAS. I mistakenly was on the Skins, but I failed to factor in the idea that if PHI would have lost their season was likely over. And the fact that they has played terrible the last 3 weeks as favorites. All in all, I'll nominate my Redskins pick as the worst of the week.

- My other odd ball pick from last week that everyone was against was TB over NO. On this one, my logic was much better. TB was coming off an embarassing L at SF, and clearly they are not that bad of a team. NO was coming in for their 3rd straight road game, which is a rare occurance in the NFL, and their 2nd straight division game. Division games are the ones you circle 1st on your calendar, so playing 2 in row is a tough proposition, especially when both are on the road. TB won and covered as a home dog. These are the things I look at, call me crazy but I think it's a good system for the NFL. The teams are so close talent wise, that I think you need to look for little edges like this to pick consistent winners.

- Lots of double-digit dogs on the slate this week in the NFL, are these good plays? Well, this year, double digit NFL dogs are 9-3, so yes these are a good play. Are all of you reveiwing your NFL picks now and circling MIN, STL, IND, and JAC? On a side note, GB is 2-1 on covering these numbers before their -10.5 road line this week at PURPLE.

Tonight is the only night without football this week...think about how crazy that is. Enjoy your break, we'll fire it up in style again tomorrow night with a nice pair of NCAA games.

Week 8 Lines

2011-10-18T12:03:00.000-05:00

One game tonight - if you want it you need to send me your pick before it starts. I don't need all 15, just the TUES game. If you don't want to play the SBC Tuesday game, then follow the regular schedule and send me all 15 of your picks by NOON THURSDAY. Thanks.

FIU
ARKST -3 (TUESDAY)

UCF
UAB 15

UCLA
AZ -4

RUT
LOU 1.5

WV
SYR 14

CIN
USF -1

OKST
MIZZ 6

NC
CLEM -9.5

NILL
BUFF 12

IND
IOWA -22

KST
KAN 14.5

ILL
PUR 5.5

ARK
OLE 15.5

WF
DUKE 3.5

WMU
EMU 16

CMU
BALLST -1

NM
TCU -38.5

LT
UTST -6.5

BC
VT -21.5

NCST
VIR -4

OHIO
AKR 15

GT
MIA -3

TEM
BGU 13

A&M
ISU 17.5

ORE
COL 33

MARY
FSU -16

AF
BOISE -29

NEB
MN 25

ECU
NAVY -10

MEM
TULANE -12.5

AUB
LSU -22

ULL
WKY 4

FRES
NEV -10

MARSH
HOU -18

ULM
NTEX 3.5

ARMY
VAN -8.5

TULSA
RICE 11

UTAH
CAL -1.5

MIAOH
TOL -14.5

PSU
NW 4.5

TN
ALA -28

USC
ND -7.5

WASH
STAN -20

WIS
MSU 7.5

COLST
UTEP -7

MDTN
FAU 6

SMU
SOMISS -3

TT
OK -25

OREST
WASU -3

NMST
HAW -22

NFL

SD
NYJ 0

SEA
CLE -3

ATL
DET -4.5

WAS
CAR -3

CHI
TB 0

DEN
MIA -2.5

HOU
TEN -3

PIT
ARI 4

KC
OAK -3.5

GB
MIN 10.5

STL
DAL -12

IND
NO -15.5

BAL
JAC 10